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RDS has Habs in at 100%

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Old
04-07-2010, 12:32 PM
  #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HarryI View Post
Rangers win all 3 games and one vs the Flyers in OT would eliminate the Habs.

Rangers would be at 88pts and Flyers at 87pts (They own the tie-breaker over us). Of course that's if the Bruins get 3pts in their last 3 and if we lose both our last games in regulation.
Maybe I'm paranoid, but this situation is not impossible at all.

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04-07-2010, 12:36 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by eliash View Post
But that's the thing. If all those individual things seem so possible, why can't they all happen? All these teams have to win games. To me a Rangers win tonight is 100% and boston going 1-1-1 is pretty easy, they could actually just go 0-0-3, as they always get at least a point per game. It will all come down to the Habs and their ability to clinch or else we will have to cheer for Philly.
Take a coin. Flip it 8 times in a row. Statistically on a Canadian quarter trails is slightly more likely.

So call tails.

It's just as possible as anything else than it will be tails, even more so, eight times in a row.

The problem is there are thousands of other configurations it could come up in. The odds are that there will be at least one difference beyond those 8 in a row.

Since the Habs make it in all but one scenario... It's not a huge worry.

Could we miss? Sure!

But it's statistically ridiculous if we do.

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04-07-2010, 12:47 PM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kjell Dahlin View Post
You are ashamed because the script they are using on their stats page (it was not on their first page!) rounded up 99,6% to 100%?

Really?


---------------

Edit:

function CreateUniqueid () **
var maxVal = 9999999999;
var minVal = 1111111111;
var randVal = minVal+(Math.random()*(maxVal-minVal));
var UID = typeof floatVal=='undefined'?Math.round(randVal):randVal. toFixed(floatVal);
return UID;
It's not rounded, look at the other teams, none of them are rounded.

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04-07-2010, 12:49 PM
  #29
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Habs miss the playoffs and everyone in Montreal commits suicide

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04-07-2010, 12:49 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by MoMo316 View Post
Maybe I'm paranoid, but this situation is not impossible at all.
Yes it is possible but we don't deserve to make it if we lose against Carolina and Toronto in regulation.

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04-07-2010, 02:16 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Kanadyens View Post
It's not rounded, look at the other teams, none of them are rounded.
The last column is rounded to two digits after the point... but the previous 15 columns are all rounded to its corresponding integral number/whole number.

I guess the "problem" occurs because of an improper logical test – imo "100%" appears because the test consider that there is zero chance (after the # have been rounded) that the Habs finish at positions 9 to 15. My guess is that 100% is not the result of an addition of unrounded numbers but the result of a logical test (“if 9-15 = 0 => 100%”) that includes a minor glitch.

Anyhow... Go Leafs! ***puke*** Go!

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04-07-2010, 02:40 PM
  #32
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04-07-2010, 02:46 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucius View Post
Take a coin. Flip it 8 times in a row. Statistically on a Canadian quarter trails is slightly more likely.

So call tails.

It's just as possible as anything else than it will be tails, even more so, eight times in a row.

The problem is there are thousands of other configurations it could come up in. The odds are that there will be at least one difference beyond those 8 in a row.

Since the Habs make it in all but one scenario... It's not a huge worry.

Could we miss? Sure!

But it's statistically ridiculous if we do.
But thats the thing. I dont believe in heads or tails odds when it come down to hockey games this late of a season. I dont know, maybe im just being pessimistic, but I feel we could easily miss the playoffs. Yes a lot of things have to happen at the same time, but they are things that are not hard to imagine.

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04-07-2010, 02:50 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by eliash View Post
But thats the thing. I dont believe in heads or tails odds when it come down to hockey games this late of a season. I dont know, maybe im just being pessimistic, but I feel we could easily miss the playoffs. Yes a lot of things have to happen at the same time, but they are things that are not hard to imagine.
I agree with you. On an emotional level it's totally plausible. Logically though, it's damn near impossible.

Logic is usually more correct than emotion.

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04-07-2010, 03:21 PM
  #35
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We're never in until we're 100% mathematically in!!! Go back to 1970. An improbable set of circumstances had to happen in the last weekend for us to miss the playoffs.. and they did! (Including a very suspicious loss by Detroit to NY that cost us dearly.)

That was a very bizarre situation. When it became obvious that we were going to lose to Chicago in our last game, the Habs pulled their goalie with about 15 minutes to go, to try and score enough goals to still qualify.

Payback is a b--tch though. The following year, Detroit needed to beat us in a nothing game for us, to qualify for the playoffs. The Habs came out flying and crushed them. When asked why so intense in a nothing game, one of the players said, "Payback for last year."

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04-07-2010, 03:22 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by icerocket View Post
Habs miss the playoffs and everyone in Montreal commits suicide
Relax, I'm pretty sure there'd be a few opportunistic murders as well (possibly followed by suicides)

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04-07-2010, 03:26 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
I'm so ashamed that this is the main channel covering the Habs..it's embarrassing.
As long as they keep covering all Habs games, they can be wrong all the time, and I'll still love their channel.

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Old
04-07-2010, 03:44 PM
  #38
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Habs'll clinch by themselves. The odds of an over regulation point are too high, especially considering the history of tight matchups against Carolina and TO this season.

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04-07-2010, 03:48 PM
  #39
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Habs miss the playoffs and everyone in Montreal commits suicide

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04-07-2010, 03:54 PM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
Is it a mistake?..yes?..or no?

And no I'm not ashame of their script, I'm embarrassed that this station of incompentencies is the Habs main channel.
If I have to explain to you why they are incompetent then we clearly have different standards.
Actually mathematically that isn't a mistake. Unless you're going to introduce us to a new branch of Statistics and Probabilities that you invented your standards are completely irrelevant.

If YOU don't understand how the calculation is done, that doesn't make RDS incompetent. You should be embarrassed at your lackluster grasp of simple mathematics.

Quote:
Originally Posted by McNuts View Post
We have 375,603 chances out of 100,000,000 to miss the playoffs, which is 0.38%. Odds to make the playoffs are therefore 99.62%, which was rounded to 100% by RDS.
For people who don't understand big numbers, as it appears to be the case in this thread, out of 1000 simulated scenarios Montreal makes the playoffs in 996 of those 1000 scenarios.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern.html


Last edited by Sined: 04-07-2010 at 04:08 PM.
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04-07-2010, 07:51 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by Lucius View Post
Take a coin. Flip it 8 times in a row. Statistically on a Canadian quarter trails is slightly more likely.

So call tails.

It's just as possible as anything else than it will be tails, even more so, eight times in a row.

The problem is there are thousands of other configurations it could come up in. The odds are that there will be at least one difference beyond those 8 in a row.

Since the Habs make it in all but one scenario... It's not a huge worry.

Could we miss? Sure!

But it's statistically ridiculous if we do.
I get what you're saying completely, Lucius (although please explain how a coin will be tails slightly more unless you are talking about the aerodynamics of the coin....probability will always be 50% no matter what the last result was), however:

stats as we all know are lies.

The way the Habs are playing and how they match up against canes with Staal and Ward - would not count on a single point

The way the Leafs tend to screw the Habs when it really counts - wouldn't count on a point there either unless Cammy drinks some coffee

Rangers are IMO most likely going to beat Philly twice and it is verrrrrry reasonable that one of them would go to OT

As I see it, the probability of us not making it is VERY high.

Stats don't take into consideration what the matchups are. That is so key in what happens. I still feel haunted by the Isles game.




EDIT: I should say, the way they calculate these things (the model they use, not the math), is completely BS.

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04-07-2010, 08:19 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by habtastic View Post
I get what you're saying completely, Lucius (although please explain how a coin will be tails slightly more unless you are talking about the aerodynamics of the coin....probability will always be 50% no matter what the last result was), however:

stats as we all know are lies.

The way the Habs are playing and how they match up against canes with Staal and Ward - would not count on a single point

The way the Leafs tend to screw the Habs when it really counts - wouldn't count on a point there either unless Cammy drinks some coffee

Rangers are IMO most likely going to beat Philly twice and it is verrrrrry reasonable that one of them would go to OT

As I see it, the probability of us not making it is VERY high.

Stats don't take into consideration what the matchups are. That is so key in what happens. I still feel haunted by the Isles game.




EDIT: I should say, the way they calculate these things (the model they use, not the math), is completely BS.
I agree with everything you said, except that while each of those things is possible, the odds of them all happening are slim.

Think of it this way: Even if you say there is a 75% chance each of those things happen (and that's a bit high in my opinion)....

What are the odds of me being able to pick a number between 1 and 4 and you guessing 8 times in a row and never once getting it right?

That's the odds of the Habs missing the playoffs.

Note: Heads or Tails, was some thing I read once about the weights of the coins. As I cannot google any evidence to back this up... It could just be an old wive's tale.

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Old
04-07-2010, 08:34 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by Lucius View Post
I agree with everything you said, except that while each of those things is possible, the odds of them all happening are slim.

Think of it this way: Even if you say there is a 75% chance each of those things happen (and that's a bit high in my opinion)....

What are the odds of me being able to pick a number between 1 and 4 and you guessing 8 times in a row and never once getting it right?

That's the odds of the Habs missing the playoffs.

Note: Heads or Tails, was some thing I read once about the weights of the coins. As I cannot google any evidence to back this up... It could just be an old wive's tale.
This is where I think you are wrong. You can't mix math and hockey! There is no probability of something happening or not happening. On paper and when you simulate it, yes I understand the the % of all these bad things happening are very low, but they are not indicative.

If the Habs had won yesterday, I'm sure that the odds of all these things happening don't seem too low after all, because they would have no effect to us. If they happen, we would just see them as regular events. We would say hey look the Rangers won 3 in a row, 2 against the Flyers. Look, Boston got 3pts in their last 3 games. The Habs lost their last 2. It's not like I'm closing my eyes and picking the winners of these games, teams have history, advantages, momentum, that's why math is useless here.

I think that the fact that these events could ruin our playoff hopes makes it look like an illusion that it's almost impossible they happen.

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04-07-2010, 08:34 PM
  #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habtastic View Post
I get what you're saying completely, Lucius (although please explain how a coin will be tails slightly more unless you are talking about the aerodynamics of the coin....probability will always be 50% no matter what the last result was), however:

stats as we all know are lies.

The way the Habs are playing and how they match up against canes with Staal and Ward - would not count on a single point

The way the Leafs tend to screw the Habs when it really counts - wouldn't count on a point there either unless Cammy drinks some coffee

Rangers are IMO most likely going to beat Philly twice and it is verrrrrry reasonable that one of them would go to OT

As I see it, the probability of us not making it is VERY high.

Stats don't take into consideration what the matchups are. That is so key in what happens. I still feel haunted by the Isles game.




EDIT: I should say, the way they calculate these things (the model they use, not the math), is completely BS.
Lol WTF are you saying? Rangers winning against Philly twice and once in OT is most likely? It's impossible for the Habs to get one point against Carolina? GET A HOLD OF YOURSELF.

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04-07-2010, 08:38 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by eliash View Post
This is where I think you are wrong. You can't mix math and hockey! There is no probability of something happening or not happening. On paper and when you simulate it, yes I understand the the % of all these bad things happening are very low, but they are not indicative.

If the Habs had won yesterday, I'm sure that the odds of all these things happening don't seem too low after all, because they would have no effect to us. If they happen, we would just see them as regular events. We would say hey look the Rangers won 3 in a row, 2 against the Flyers. Look, Boston got 3pts in their last 3 games. The Habs lost their last 2. It's not like I'm closing my eyes and picking the winners of these games, teams have history, advantages, momentum, that's why math is useless here.

I think that the fact that these events could ruin our playoff hopes makes it look like an illusion that it's almost impossible they happen.
Math is not useless. Even if I accept your premise that these are ALL the most likely outcome... The odds of everything happening the way they should, or you "feel" they should happen are almost none.

If I'm wrong and you are able to pick like that. Please, sir, quit posting here and go put ALL your money on Pro Line, because you're about to get rich!*

* Indicates I get a 10% commission for thinking of that.

Mathematically, the odds of this happening the way that screws us is equally likely to every other possible combination. Luckily, there are hundreds of possible combination. Even if this is most likely, it is not more likely than every other possible combination as a whole.

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04-07-2010, 08:56 PM
  #46
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Lol WTF are you saying? Rangers winning against Philly twice and once in OT is most likely? It's impossible for the Habs to get one point against Carolina? GET A HOLD OF YOURSELF.
watch.

I'm not saying anything ridiculous.

Philly isn't that great (Boucher..ehh), Rangers have been on a tear the past 8 games, if they are so equal, one game could go to OT. They could both go to OT and the Rangers could win ftm.

As for us vs Canes...am I really exaggerating? What's the last good game you remember us playing? For me the Sabres game was not convincing, more not crumbling. Philly...one-goal game all Halak. We have NOT been playing well lately. PP sucks. Cammy sucks. Everyone else is lost. I love this team, but they are in a slump. I want to make to POs cuz I think they have a chance to beat anyone WHEN THEY ARE ON THEIR GAME. They have not been for awhile. Arguably since Cammy came back (weird huh?)


vs. Leafs... if you're a Habs fan...you know the recent history.

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04-07-2010, 08:58 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by habtastic View Post
watch.

I'm not saying anything ridiculous.

Philly isn't that great (Boucher..ehh), Rangers have been on a tear the past 8 games, if they are so equal, one game could go to OT. They could both go to OT and the Rangers could win ftm.

As for us vs Canes...am I really exaggerating? What's the last good game you remember us playing? For me the Sabres game was not convincing, more not crumbling. Philly...one-goal game all Halak. We have NOT been playing well lately. PP sucks. Cammy sucks. Everyone else is lost. I love this team, but they are in a slump. I want to make to POs cuz I think they have a chance to beat anyone WHEN THEY ARE ON THEIR GAME. They have not been for awhile. Arguably since Cammy came back (weird huh?)


vs. Leafs... if you're a Habs fan...you know the recent history.
you are out to lunch. We could miss the playoffs, just like I could win the Richard.

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04-07-2010, 09:03 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by Lucius View Post
Math is not useless. Even if I accept your premise that these are ALL the most likely outcome... The odds of everything happening the way they should, or you "feel" they should happen are almost none.

If I'm wrong and you are able to pick like that. Please, sir, quit posting here and go put ALL your money on Pro Line, because you're about to get rich!*

* Indicates I get a 10% commission for thinking of that.

Mathematically, the odds of this happening the way that screws us is equally likely to every other possible combination. Luckily, there are hundreds of possible combination. Even if this is most likely, it is not more likely than every other possible combination as a whole.
I think this is the point. Math is right IF properly applied. If you model everything, including the condition of the ice, what JM ate the night before, what Gomez's bone density is in the second period, etc. (sort of the thing they parody in proline commercials), then YES, the math would be. Of course, this isn't the case. It's just taking pretty simple probability equations to get that number. Lucius you are right in defending the number, but I'm sure you'd agree that it might not reflect very well what is likely to happen (like I said, it's too basic a model).

as for the coin thing...yeah that's what I thought- it would be the actual physics of the coin (even though in common parlance we consider both sides equal)....hmmm...that would make Two-Face (Harvey) less likely to go nuts, probably moreso since the heads side is charred, more weighted, unless that would cause an extra rotation. Then again, wouldn't it depend on how high a coin were flipped (unless it's cuz the amount of time on a downward facing rotation is more per revolution of the coin.....oh crap system overload...can't process thought...MAB giveaway....opponent goal!!)

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04-07-2010, 09:06 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by Lucius View Post
Math is not useless. Even if I accept your premise that these are ALL the most likely outcome... The odds of everything happening the way they should, or you "feel" they should happen are almost none.

If I'm wrong and you are able to pick like that. Please, sir, quit posting here and go put ALL your money on Pro Line, because you're about to get rich!*

* Indicates I get a 10% commission for thinking of that.

Mathematically, the odds of this happening the way that screws us is equally likely to every other possible combination. Luckily, there are hundreds of possible combination. Even if this is most likely, it is not more likely than every other possible combination as a whole.
Because in hockey the mentality alone of the teams can predict the winners. The team that is more prepared will win, it's as simple as that. Last I checked, you can't calculate that with an equation.

There are 4 teams left, only 3 places. The 3 that want it more mentally and that physically play for it will make it. Yes there is some luck involved, but it's not as simple as 50/50, like you make it seem.

If it was really mathematical, why did our % drop tonight? Why don't we take in account the NYR-Leafs game anymore, if it previously was part of our "chances" in making the playoffs? What I'm trying to say is that this way of calculating is false because the odds keep changing and they shouldn't. If Boston win their next 2, and NYR beats Philly in OT, and we lose our 2 games in regulation, our odds suddenly become 50/50, when less than a week ago they were 99.6/0.4? Doesn't make sense, because if we really have a 99.6% chance of making it, we should be pretty positive looking into that last game between Philly and NYR, but it wouldn't be the case.

Considering this way of calculating, at the beginning of the season, every team has the same odds of making the playoffs, right? Now, each win raises their percentage of making the playoffs, so this means that the % depends on the wins, and not vice versa. So you can't say that a team has more chance of making it than another because they have a better %, but you can say that they will have better chances of making it if they win.

edit: And just to make it clear, I still believe that we are well placed to make it, but I just want to show that it's not as simple as some may think. Even if we win tomorrow, I stand by anything I said over here because I don't believe in these odds.


Last edited by One Trick Pony: 04-07-2010 at 09:11 PM.
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04-07-2010, 09:07 PM
  #50
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Originally Posted by Fish on The Sand View Post
you are out to lunch. We could miss the playoffs, just like I could win the Richard.
I honestly wish you had 50 goals right now. I'm not saying we won't. Just saying that IMO the things that would cause us to miss them are not at all implausible.

Do you expect teams to go into 8 game slumps? no, but it happens. Look at what St Louis had to do to get in last year. You might join me at lunch.

btw, i never said it's impossible (since we're talking about probability) to win against Carolina, just that I don't think we will. It's very possible to beat them, but the way they've been playing, it would be an upset if we beat them.

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