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The Summer of the Qualifying Offer

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05-06-2004, 06:49 AM
  #1
DarkHorse
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The Summer of the Qualifying Offer

Qualifying offers must be made before the CBA expires, which means any offers made will be without knowing how salaries will be affected.

As such, I expect this to be a weird summer for RFAs.
1) I think we'll see fewer automatic QOs, and more UFAs as a result
and 2) I think you'll see players jumping on QOs more often, instead of the usual automatic rejection. Better the devil you know, and all that.

From my team (Isles) Adrian Aucoin, Jason Blake, Sven Butenschon, Rick DiPietro, Roman Hamrlik, Trent Hunter, Oleg Kvasha, Janne Niinimaa, Justin Papineau, Mark Parrish, Dave Scatchard and Mattias Weinhandl will likely get their QOs. Cairns, Webb and Mapletoft could be released. I expect Parrish, Scatchard and the kids to grab their QOs and run. Blake will take his chances, because even with a new CBA, he's all but guaranteed to double his salary. The big three on D are the question, with Aucoin, Hammer and Niinimaa all needing new contracts.

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05-06-2004, 08:49 AM
  #2
The Lehner
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I agree with your thoughts on this topic. I think we will see way more UFA's as less qualifying offers are tendered. We are moving towards the NBA where contracts are traded instead of players (maybe we're already there).

The Senators Group II free agents are:
Martin Havlat Chris Phillips
Zdeno Chara Peter Schaefer
Radek Bonk Martin Prusek
Patrick Lalime Vaclav Varada
Brian Pothier

I would suspect that Lalime, Bonk, Pothier, Prusek and Varada would jump at signing qualifying offers (if tendered). If Lalime and Bonk are not traded before July 1st would the Sens really qualify them at $2.5M US and $3.5M US? Bonk for sure no IMO...Lalime is debatable I guess.

I'm thinking we will see a record number of players go through the arbitration process this summer as teams will not likely be negotiating hard with group II free agents.

It should be an interesting summer for free agency with the new NHL on the horizon...

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05-06-2004, 09:05 AM
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I agree that this will be an odd off season. in july when the free agent season opens i expect to see little action if any. with group II's, i think you will see players like jason arnott and radek bonk not be qualified. a lot of players that go to arbitration will be left at the alter when the team walks away from the arbitration award. those players will sit on the open market til there is a cba and will likely not come close to the awarded salary after there is a new cba.

i am really curious how boston will handle sergei gonchar. it has been reported that his arbitration award based on his league leading point production over the last 5 years may be easily in the $7m range. That's a lot of coin for a team with Thornton also a group II and most of the rest of the veterans group III's.

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05-06-2004, 09:12 AM
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Drake1588
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I am confident Arnott will be qualified after a 57-point season, though he might be traded afterwards to free up some payroll room. He is a valuable asset, however, and they won't just let him go.

Gonchar is an interesting one, though. He'll end up at arbitration and if the numbers are high enough, which precedent suggests they just may be, Boston might just have to let him walk, or sign him and then shop him.

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Old
05-06-2004, 09:39 AM
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It will be very interesting this off season with the CBA looming on who will stay and who will go for each team.

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05-06-2004, 09:50 AM
  #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drake1588
I am confident Arnott will be qualified after a 57-point season, though he might be traded afterwards to free up some payroll room. He is a valuable asset, however, and they won't just let him go.

Gonchar is an interesting one, though. He'll end up at arbitration and if the numbers are high enough, which precedent suggests they just may be, Boston might just have to let him walk, or sign him and then shop him.

Jason Arnott had a 57 pt season at $3.85m and must be qualified at $4.25m. If Dallas qualifies him they are stuck with him. He won't be traded in this climate.
Arnott would likely go to arbitration and that would force Dallas to sign him or walk.

The talk out of Dallas is that Arnott will not be qualified.

As for Gonchar...with the uncertainty of the next cba and the likelyhood of restricted payroll, who will be trading for a $7m one year before free agent contract?

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05-06-2004, 10:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by txpd
Jason Arnott had a 57 pt season at $3.85m and must be qualified at $4.25m.
If he made $3.85m last year why does he have to be qualified at $4.25m and not last year's salary as dictated by the CBA?

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05-06-2004, 10:43 AM
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Qualifying offers to RFA must have a 10% increase.

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05-06-2004, 10:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by txpd
Jason Arnott had a 57 pt season at $3.85m and must be qualified at $4.25m. If Dallas qualifies him they are stuck with him. He won't be traded in this climate.
Arnott would likely go to arbitration and that would force Dallas to sign him or walk.

The talk out of Dallas is that Arnott will not be qualified.

As for Gonchar...with the uncertainty of the next cba and the likelyhood of restricted payroll, who will be trading for a $7m one year before free agent contract?


Good. In that case then I would love to see Arnott comeback to New Jersey... One could only wish...

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05-06-2004, 10:53 AM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by txpd
i am really curious how boston will handle sergei gonchar. it has been reported that his arbitration award based on his league leading point production over the last 5 years may be easily in the $7m range. That's a lot of coin for a team with Thornton also a group II and most of the rest of the veterans group III's.
I don't know if we can really believe O'Connell this time around but he's publicly stated that B's will sign Gonchar no matter what. (in other words , if he files for an arbitration or not)

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05-06-2004, 10:55 AM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by littleHossa
Qualifying offers to RFA must have a 10% increase.
I might be wrong but I think it applies to the players who's salary was less than league minimum or avarage(???).

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05-06-2004, 10:58 AM
  #12
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10 percent is for players under the average salary.

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Old
05-06-2004, 11:00 AM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by littleHossa
Qualifying offers to RFA must have a 10% increase.
Not true...they are only given a mandatory 10% increase if they are making less than the league average. O'Neill, Bonk and Arnott only need be qualified at the previous season's base salary.

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Old
05-06-2004, 11:01 AM
  #14
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the bruins only have 4 players signed at this point. So, they have a lot of flexibility.
They could well sign Gonchar to a 3 or 4 year deal that averages between $6m and 7m a year. Bergeron, Raycroft and Boynton give them some flexibility because they can suck a lot of ice time up. But with Gonchar in the $7m range and Thornton in the $6m range, thats $13m total.

If the salary cap comes in at the $35m ranger that the Bruins and most other teams want, thats just $22m for the rest of the roster.

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Old
05-06-2004, 02:52 PM
  #15
Vlad The Impaler
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Even if Arnott is not due a 10% raise... he hardly earns his salary as it is.

This guy has been qualified more on the promise he holds than on actual performances. Once in a while, he gets his game to the next level but then falls back on his ass.

The guy has NEVER reached 60 points except his first year in the NHL. That's ten years ago. Those are horrible numbers for such a guy.

There was an indication he might become a big game player but he has had one really big playoffs season. The rest is mediocre or worse. For Dallas, his playoffs numbers are underwhelming so it's not working here.

Arnott has it all. Immense skills, power, mobility. But he is an enigma, much like the Yashins, Malakhovs and Hamrliks of this world.

Now, all that being said, I would still have a tough time deciding whether to resign him or not. Because I still live very much the talent. If I was GM of the Stars, I think I would seriously consider qualifying him. There's money in Dallas and I might be suckered into thinking he will raise his game. If he doesn't, a trade might be in order.

Devils might be interested and maybe the Ducks would take a chance and reunite him with Sykora. I would like to see a Chistov-Arnott-Sykora line for fun.

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05-06-2004, 03:42 PM
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One of the odd side effects of the whole scenario is you will see teams overpaying some guys considerably more than you saw in the past by comparison.

Martin Lapointe has had a bloated contract the past couple of years, but when you compare it to what players of his equal ability will receive this offseason, it'll be a far greater difference.

I believe you'll see over 1/2 of the RFA's not qualified, which isn't as big as you think as many RFA's are fringe players, they aren't all stars. The offseason could really end up with a big shakeup of teams as jilted RFA's walk as UFA's. The traditional big spenders are going to keep their pocketbooks closed more than normal, so you'll see the lower payroll teams like a Minnesota make a big signing at a bargain price.

You won't see any more players elect for arbitration than normal because that is a select group, and usually it is already a high percentage to elect for it. That will be compareable to the past.

I can't wait to see who makes the first move among the teams. I guarantee you'll see a surprise signing the first part of July and that will set the tone of the free agent dealings.

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05-06-2004, 03:48 PM
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Whether it's teams not qualifying RFA's and letting them go, or it's the RFA's not accepting the Qualifying offers, I think we'll see alot more UFA's this year than in any previous year ever in the history of the modern NHL. Which in a way is bad because there will be all kinds of player movement, but in a way will be very good because it will help drive down salaries a significant amount I would think. The truly great marquee players will still demand a high price but all the 2nd and 3rd tier players will find themselves in competition with their union brothers for jobs, leading to lower overall salaries.

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Old
05-06-2004, 04:55 PM
  #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vlad The Impaler
Even if Arnott is not due a 10% raise... he hardly earns his salary as it is.

This guy has been qualified more on the promise he holds than on actual performances. Once in a while, he gets his game to the next level but then falls back on his ass.

The guy has NEVER reached 60 points except his first year in the NHL. That's ten years ago. Those are horrible numbers for such a guy.

There was an indication he might become a big game player but he has had one really big playoffs season. The rest is mediocre or worse. For Dallas, his playoffs numbers are underwhelming so it's not working here.

Arnott has it all. Immense skills, power, mobility. But he is an enigma, much like the Yashins, Malakhovs and Hamrliks of this world.

Now, all that being said, I would still have a tough time deciding whether to resign him or not. Because I still live very much the talent. If I was GM of the Stars, I think I would seriously consider qualifying him. There's money in Dallas and I might be suckered into thinking he will raise his game. If he doesn't, a trade might be in order.

Devils might be interested and maybe the Ducks would take a chance and reunite him with Sykora. I would like to see a Chistov-Arnott-Sykora line for fun.
That would be an interesting line. However, since the Ducks already have Fedorov and Rucchin as their top 2 centers, going for Arnott would be overkill.

It will be very interesting to see which RFA's aren't qualified. This summer is going to have a ton of free agents available. Which is kind of good for an NHL team looking to acquire players.

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Old
05-06-2004, 05:01 PM
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kmad
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Bryan Allen, (II)
Qualify.

Alex Auld, (II)
Qualify.

Sylvain Blouin, (II)
No qualify.

Tyler Bouck, (II)
Qualify. Two-way contract.

Artem Chubarov, (II)
Qualify.

Dan Cloutier, (II)
Qualify.

Brendan Morrison, (II)
Qualify.

Justin Morrison, (II)
No qualify.

Chris Nielsen, (II)
No qualify.

Daniel Sedin, (II)
Qualify.

Henrik Sedin, (II)
Qualify.

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Old
05-06-2004, 05:11 PM
  #20
Vlad The Impaler
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coffey77
That would be an interesting line. However, since the Ducks already have Fedorov and Rucchin as their top 2 centers, going for Arnott would be overkill.
Don't forget Arnott can and has played wing often, so there's some flexibility. Plus injuries can hit hard. Also, I still prefer Rucchin in a 3rd line role.

I love teams who have solid depth in the middle, especially if this depth has some flexibility and can move on the wings. The magic number is three solid centers for me

If the Ducks were so hotly pursuing Mike Comrie this year, I think they can probably find a use for Arnott. He can aalso provide excellent support from the point on the PP (again, when he isn't sitting on his ass collecting his check).

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05-06-2004, 05:17 PM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vlad The Impaler
Don't forget Arnott can and has played wing often, so there's some flexibility. Plus injuries can hit hard. Also, I still prefer Rucchin in a 3rd line role.

I love teams who have solid depth in the middle, especially if this depth has some flexibility and can move on the wings. The magic number is three solid centers for me

If the Ducks were so hotly pursuing Mike Comrie this year, I think they can probably find a use for Arnott. He can aalso provide excellent support from the point on the PP (again, when he isn't sitting on his ass collecting his check).
I agree having strong center depth is key. Detroit had Yzerman, Fedorov, Larionov and Draper as their centers at one point. Even now Lang, Datsyuk and Draper are alright. Ducks would have great depth if they had Fedorov, Rucchin, Arnott and Pahlsson down the middle.

If the Ducks can get Arnott for less than what he makes now then I think it's a good idea. He can play on the wing but IMO he's much better as a center.

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05-06-2004, 05:28 PM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coffey77
I agree having strong center depth is key. Detroit had Yzerman, Fedorov, Larionov and Draper as their centers at one point. Even now Lang, Datsyuk and Draper are alright. Ducks would have great depth if they had Fedorov, Rucchin, Arnott and Pahlsson down the middle.

If the Ducks can get Arnott for less than what he makes now then I think it's a good idea. He can play on the wing but IMO he's much better as a center.
There was hardly ever a time when all three of Fedorov, Yzerman and Larionov played center...if Arnott went to Anaheim, you would probably see Sergei Fedorov on the win, because leaving Sami Pahlsson as a 4th line center is a bit of a waste.

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05-06-2004, 07:32 PM
  #23
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what team will be signing free agents before the cba is worked out? i think most if not all teams will stay off the market til they know how much they can spend.

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Old
05-06-2004, 08:03 PM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kmad
Bryan Allen, (II)
Qualify.

Alex Auld, (II)
Qualify.

Sylvain Blouin, (II)
No qualify.

Tyler Bouck, (II)
Qualify. Two-way contract.

Artem Chubarov, (II)
Qualify.

Dan Cloutier, (II)
Qualify.

Brendan Morrison, (II)
Qualify.

Justin Morrison, (II)
No qualify.

Chris Nielsen, (II)
No qualify.

Daniel Sedin, (II)
Qualify.

Henrik Sedin, (II)
Qualify.
Not so sure about Clouthier. he has arbitration rights and few streight 30wins seasons. Not sure if he will be UFA or RFA this summer

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Old
05-06-2004, 09:00 PM
  #25
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i think the most interesting RFAs are Kovalchuk and Heatley...

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