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Kovalchuk or Marleau?

View Poll Results: Kovalchuk or Marleau?
Ilya Kovalchuk 34 68.00%
Patrick Marleau 6 12.00%
Other 10 20.00%
Voters: 50. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
04-09-2010, 03:07 PM
  #1
EOM
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Kovalchuk or Marleau?

The Blues obviously need a difference maker for next season. Who would you prefer the Blues pursue in the offseason, Kovalchuk or Marleau? Or, someone else via trade? My vote is for Kovalchuk.

If you vote "Other" then tell us who you want, and how the Blues should go about getting them.


Last edited by EOM: 04-09-2010 at 04:02 PM.
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04-09-2010, 03:23 PM
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I'm not convinced Marleau's success is clearly his own. Kovalchuk, ont he other hand, was just about the only good thing in Atlanta.

You've got one player who had no help on a dead team for a number of years who produced higher numbers.

You've got another player who had help from one of the best set-up men on a highly successful team who produced lower numbers.

Tah-duh.

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04-09-2010, 03:41 PM
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I think they'll pursue both of them, but not net either one. Where do you go after that? Frolov? I think he'll be available but there are a few warning signs with him (the relationship with his coaching in L.A.).

I don't think he's in the same caliber as the two guys you mentioned, but Plekanec seems like a realistic pick up I wouldn't mind seeing. I'm not advocating this signing necessarily, but I wonder where Stempniak will end up.

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04-09-2010, 03:51 PM
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Originally Posted by 2 Minute Minor View Post
I think they'll pursue both of them, but not net either one. Where do you go after that? Frolov? I think he'll be available but there are a few warning signs with him (the relationship with his coaching in L.A.).

I don't think he's in the same caliber as the two guys you mentioned, but Plekanec seems like a realistic pick up I wouldn't mind seeing. I'm not advocating this signing necessarily, but I wonder where Stempniak will end up.
Why wouldn't we be able to get one of them?
We have the money to overpay if we have to.

There is no reason, at all, for JD to not end up with one of the big 3 this summer. There's really no reason to even include Frolov in that either; if we want one of Kovalchuk or Marleau we have the Cap space to bring them in, we have the need and we are an easy sell in terms of "wanting to come here".


And Plekanec is a horrible fit for this team. He's a carbon copy of what we already have up front: average speed, average size, average shot, above average passer. This team already has far too many players like that, we either need a true shooter or a big body that will collect garbage goals. Plekanec does neither. At least Stempy has a decent shot when he wants to use it.

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04-09-2010, 04:02 PM
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Neither. Both are going to be over-paid relative to their production.

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04-09-2010, 04:04 PM
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Frolov may be able to help our goal scoring deficiencies, but keep in mind that he's having a poor year in LA and isn't a very consistent player. Also, he's certainly not a difference maker.

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04-09-2010, 04:22 PM
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Originally Posted by kimzey59 View Post
Why wouldn't we be able to get one of them?
We have the money to overpay if we have to.

There is no reason, at all, for JD to not end up with one of the big 3 this summer. There's really no reason to even include Frolov in that either; if we want one of Kovalchuk or Marleau we have the Cap space to bring them in, we have the need and we are an easy sell in terms of "wanting to come here".
The easy sell is arguable. Kovalchuk is still young enough that it's not time for him to take a discount to win, but he'll still want to go to an organization with a future. I think that definitely keeps him in the realm of possibility. However, if you have a few teams offering the same basic contract, just where he wants to live could have as much to do with his decision as anything. I don't know his tastes, but there's no guarantee that St. Louis is appealing.

I think Marleau would be a better immediate fit, but I think he wants to win. He's been making bank above his head for a while, and he knows that he's not going to have the same market value without Thornton. So, he'll get a good paycheck, but I could easily see his signing coming with a small discount and the caveat to spend that discount on another free agent. That's all speculation, however, and the point is that each guy has his own circumstances and putting one of the two in stone for the Blues is getting way ahead of yourself.

I fully believe the Blues will be at the head of the line, but I also wouldn't doubt a trade if they can't get it done. A defenseman, a young forward, and some picks for an impact player, then sign a defenseman like Martin, Volchenkov, Seidenberg, or Gonchar. So, either way, I'm on board with the Blues being right in the thick of things for an impact player. But I don't think there are any guarantees. Especially when they have to carefully manage their finances for their young RFA's this year and next year.

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04-09-2010, 04:23 PM
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Originally Posted by kimzey59 View Post
Why wouldn't we be able to get one of them?
We have the money to overpay if we have to.

There is no reason, at all, for JD to not end up with one of the big 3 this summer. There's really no reason to even include Frolov in that either; if we want one of Kovalchuk or Marleau we have the Cap space to bring them in, we have the need and we are an easy sell in terms of "wanting to come here".


And Plekanec is a horrible fit for this team. He's a carbon copy of what we already have up front: average speed, average size, average shot, above average passer. This team already has far too many players like that, we either need a true shooter or a big body that will collect garbage goals. Plekanec does neither. At least Stempy has a decent shot when he wants to use it.
OK, I won't push the point on Plekanec.

I know the Blues have the money for Kovalchuk, but so did Atlanta. Although I think the Blues aren't so far away from being a contender, it doesn't matter if I think that. Will Kovalchuk think that? He sees a non-playoff team in a midwest market with an AHL unproven coach. I'm just not so sure he's going to be differentiating the Blues from the Thrashers as much as we'd like. If JD can sell him on the "local alumni" I'll be surprised/impressed. Personally, I think St Louis is a great destination for him, but I just doubt he'll be convinced.

If you can tell me why he wanted out of Atlanta so badly, I can tell you whether the Blues have any chance at him.

Marleau...maybe that's a better possibility, but also a bit more suspect in terms of whether he's more a product of his linemates to some degree. We'll see if he makes it to the signing period before I start even worrying about it.

I'm not enthusiastic about Frolov, but who is next on the list if you have to cross of the top two? Surely the plan is more flexible than that?

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04-09-2010, 04:27 PM
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Originally Posted by 2 Minute Minor View Post
OK, I won't push the point on Plekanec.

I know the Blues have the money for Kovalchuk, but so did Atlanta. Although I think the Blues aren't so far away from being a contender, it doesn't matter if I think that. Will Kovalchuk think that? He sees a non-playoff team in a midwest market with an AHL unproven coach. I'm just not so sure he's going to be differentiating the Blues from the Thrashers as much as we'd like. If JD can sell him on the "local alumni" I'll be surprised/impressed. Personally, I think St Louis is a great destination for him, but I just doubt he'll be convinced.

If you can tell me why he wanted out of Atlanta so badly, I can tell you whether the Blues have any chance at him.

Marleau...maybe that's a better possibility, but also a bit more suspect in terms of whether he's more a product of his linemates to some degree. We'll see if he makes it to the signing period before I start even worrying about it.

I'm not enthusiastic about Frolov, but who is next on the list if you have to cross of the top two? Surely the plan is more flexible than that?
No one on the open market really excites me in regards to answering our scoring problems, while also addressing other needs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rumrokh View Post
The easy sell is arguable. Kovalchuk is still young enough that it's not time for him to take a discount to win, but he'll still want to go to an organization with a future. I think that definitely keeps him in the realm of possibility. However, if you have a few teams offering the same basic contract, just where he wants to live could have as much to do with his decision as anything. I don't know his tastes, but there's no guarantee that St. Louis is appealing.

I think Marleau would be a better immediate fit, but I think he wants to win. He's been making bank above his head for a while, and he knows that he's not going to have the same market value without Thornton. So, he'll get a good paycheck, but I could easily see his signing coming with a small discount and the caveat to spend that discount on another free agent. That's all speculation, however, and the point is that each guy has his own circumstances and putting one of the two in stone for the Blues is getting way ahead of yourself.

I fully believe the Blues will be at the head of the line, but I also wouldn't doubt a trade if they can't get it done. A defenseman, a young forward, and some picks for an impact player, then sign a defenseman like Martin, Volchenkov, Seidenberg, or Gonchar. So, either way, I'm on board with the Blues being right in the thick of things for an impact player. But I don't think there are any guarantees. Especially when they have to carefully manage their finances for their young RFA's this year and next year.
I agree with everything for the most part, but the part in bold is where we really see eye to eye.

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04-09-2010, 04:57 PM
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I voted for Kovalchuk because he's who I've wanted from the start. I'm thinking, however, that maybe he wants the big city life. The NY Rangers will also have tons of cap space. If they sign Kovy, then I doubt they keep Jokinen.

I want Kovalchuk, but think he'll sign with The New York Rangers.

Having good line mates in St. Louis should not be a problem for Marleau. I agree with the sentiment that he'll likely sign with a team that's closer to winning The Cup.

Either Kovalchuk or Marleau would fit well, imo, but I think neither signs here.


But you never know what motivations players have. All speculation, but kinda fun!!

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04-09-2010, 05:01 PM
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I want Kovalchuk, but think he'll sign with The New York Rangers.
Re-signing Staal and Girardi will probably eat up a decent chunk of the Ranger's payroll. I'm not sure the Rangers can swing it, even if they let all of their UFA's walk.

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04-09-2010, 05:18 PM
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Re-signing Staal and Girardi will probably eat up a decent chunk of the Ranger's payroll. I'm not sure the Rangers can swing it, even if they let all of their UFA's walk.
Yeah, you're right, but neither Jokinen or Prospal is going back to NYR, so that can be used to re-sign Staal ($3.5m per) and Girardi ($2.4m per), thereby solidifying their defense for years. They'll still have cap space to sign a big name like Kovy.

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04-09-2010, 05:29 PM
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Kovalchuk's not exactly tearing it up in NJ, but we'll see what the playoffs bring. He's never been a big-game performer and he'll be wanting ~$9mm/season. The guy doesn't play defense and isn't known for leadership abilities. He could also keep us from resigning some of our core guys. Seems like this is a bad route to go.

Marleau I like more, but he'll be 31, so returns will diminish after a couple years. Pass

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04-09-2010, 05:39 PM
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Kovalchuk's not exactly tearing it up in NJ, but we'll see what the playoffs bring. He's never been a big-game performer and he'll be wanting ~$9mm/season. The guy doesn't play defense and isn't known for leadership abilities. He could also keep us from resigning some of our core guys. Seems like this is a bad route to go.

Marleau I like more, but he'll be 31, so returns will diminish after a couple years. Pass

1) 9 goals and 23 points in 25 games playing with Pat Elias and Brian Rolston in the most defensive system in the league isn't "tearing it up"?

What kind of standards do you have?

2) He won't keep us from re-signing anybody, even at 9 mil per year. We only have 6 players under contract for 2011-2012(2 of them are Eller and Pietrangelo). If we can't make things work with that much payroll flexibility somebody needs to be shot.

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04-09-2010, 05:40 PM
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Originally Posted by blue bleeder 24-7 View Post
I'm not convinced Marleau's success is clearly his own. Kovalchuk, ont he other hand, was just about the only good thing in Atlanta.

You've got one player who had no help on a dead team for a number of years who produced higher numbers.

You've got another player who had help from one of the best set-up men on a highly successful team who produced lower numbers.

Tah-duh.
The 70+ point seasons where he did not play on a line with Jumbo Joe are not proof enough that Marleau is not a good player in his own right? This is the first year that Marleau and Thorton have been put together outside of PP time.


Is he a better individual talent than Kovalchuk? No way. Could he fit the Blues team dynamic better? Quite possibly.

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04-09-2010, 05:43 PM
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Yeah, you're right, but neither Jokinen or Prospal is going back to NYR, so that can be used to re-sign Staal ($3.5m per) and Girardi ($2.4m per), thereby solidifying their defense for years. They'll still have cap space to sign a big name like Kovy.
The Rag's only have 12 mil in space as it stands and you've just cut 6 mil from that number.
How are they going to make that work?
They'll also need to figure out who the other 1st line forward is going to be.

The Rag's cannot afford to sign Kovalchuk.

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04-09-2010, 05:46 PM
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The 70+ point seasons where he did not play on a line with Jumbo Joe are not proof enough that Marleau is not a good player in his own right? This is the first year that Marleau and Thorton have been put together outside of PP time.


Is he a better individual talent than Kovalchuk? No way. Could he fit the Blues team dynamic better? Quite possibly.
Since Thornton went to SJ he has been involved in 40% of Marleau's points.
You are never going to convince me that Joe isn't the reason that Marleau jumped to 70 points after the lockout.

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04-09-2010, 06:03 PM
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if Calgary is blown up this summer, how realistic would it be for the Blues to trade for Iginla?

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04-09-2010, 07:00 PM
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Kovalchuk's not exactly tearing it up in NJ, but we'll see what the playoffs bring. He's never been a big-game performer and he'll be wanting ~$9mm/season. The guy doesn't play defense and isn't known for leadership abilities. He could also keep us from resigning some of our core guys. Seems like this is a bad route to go.

Marleau I like more, but he'll be 31, so returns will diminish after a couple years. Pass
Yeah I agree with you on both these players, although I wouldn't mind if St. Louis was able to pick up Frolov for 3.5-4 million.

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04-09-2010, 10:50 PM
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Kovalchuk vs. Marleau isn't even really an argument, Ilya is head and shoulders above Marleau, even at the higher price it'd take to acquire him.

As others mentioned above, Marleau's production has jumped thanks to his linemates while Ilya's has not dropped despite losing Heatley, Hossa, Savard, and every other skilled player he's played with over the past few seasons.

Kovalchuk is also a young 26, so a long-term deal will cover him through the prime of his playing career. He still has potential to get even better, at that age, and post some amazing seasons in the next few years. Marleau, on the other hand, is on the wrong side of 30 and isn't a good fit for a young team like the Blues who may still take another year or two to bring in all their young talent and become a REAL monster.

The cost is hardly even an issue, as Kimzey pointed out above.

If you want to compete the Blues need to get a franchise-level talent, and there's only one guy that fits the bill that's even remotely acquirable in the next few years for the Blues, since they did not jump on Gaborik last year.

The Blues need to do something while their top talent is relatively cheap. Look at the Blackhawks; they're spending money on top guys like Hossa and Campbell (who isn't as bad of a signing as many seem to imply, if he is a bit overpriced) to complement their core of young guys with Kane, Toews, Keith, Seabrook while those young guys are still relatively cheap compared to the production they provide.

Kovalchuk is a PERFECT fit for the Blues right now, and I'm surprised more people don't seem to see that. He's everything the Blues need right now. They don't have any truly elite scoring talents in the pipeline, and goal scoring was their main weakness all year. Kovalchuk fixes that, and he's young enough to be part of the core of the team for the next 8 or 10 years over the length of his contract.

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04-10-2010, 12:45 AM
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Originally Posted by kimzey59 View Post
Since Thornton went to SJ he has been involved in 40% of Marleau's points.
You are never going to convince me that Joe isn't the reason that Marleau jumped to 70 points after the lockout.
Where is this 40% coming from? How many times did Jumbo Joe put a primary assist on one of Marleau's goals? How many are ES and how many are on the PP? Now lets take that a bit deeper how many of those goals are from plays that only an elite playmaker can make and how many are simpler plays that most top six forwards could execute? Does it really matter if they both tallied a helper on some Cheechoo PP goal?

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04-10-2010, 12:58 AM
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Where is this 40% coming from? How many times did Jumbo Joe put a primary assist on one of Marleau's goals? How many are ES and how many are on the PP? Now lets take that a bit deeper how many of those goals are from plays that only an elite playmaker can make and how many are simpler plays that most top six forwards could execute? Does it really matter if they both tallied a helper on some Cheechoo PP goal?
I don't disagree with the heart of your message, which is that Marleau is a good player. I would love to see him on the Blues.

However, you're shooting yourself in the foot by arguing about crap like primary assists. The value of primary assists over secondary assists is a myth. I frequently see the most essential play in the creation of a goal by a guy who would get the third assist. And with the way Thornton draws defenders and holds onto the puck to create a play, he could be getting the secondary assist every time and his contribution would not be diminished.

That could be an argument that Thornton has played a major role in inflating Marleau's stats. But I watch San Jose enough to know that Marleau is a really good player regardless. Kovalchuk level? No. They're pretty different players, too. But each would certainly help the Blues.

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04-10-2010, 01:27 AM
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Originally Posted by kimzey59 View Post
Since Thornton went to SJ he has been involved in 40% of Marleau's points.
You are never going to convince me that Joe isn't the reason that Marleau jumped to 70 points after the lockout.
FYI Marleau and Thornton were not linemates until last season. Skimming the posts in here, you guys are underrating Marleau. I won't speak to Kovalchuk because I don't follow the East closely but Marleau is a franchise center and would be the best player on the Blues if he signed there. I hope it doesn't come to that because it is crucial to SJ's success that he re-signs here.

BTW I'd really appreciate it if you guys beat the Predators tomorrow.

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04-10-2010, 02:02 AM
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I don't disagree with the heart of your message, which is that Marleau is a good player. I would love to see him on the Blues.

However, you're shooting yourself in the foot by arguing about crap like primary assists. The value of primary assists over secondary assists is a myth. I frequently see the most essential play in the creation of a goal by a guy who would get the third assist. And with the way Thornton draws defenders and holds onto the puck to create a play, he could be getting the secondary assist every time and his contribution would not be diminished.

That could be an argument that Thornton has played a major role in inflating Marleau's stats. But I watch San Jose enough to know that Marleau is a really good player regardless. Kovalchuk level? No. They're pretty different players, too. But each would certainly help the Blues.
Yeah, I guess primary assists are not the answer in that. I was really trying to shift the focus that Thornton is not gift wrapping almost half of the points that Marleau puts up. There certainly are plays that Marleau benefits from plays that Thornton is the only one that can make but that number is a far cry from 40% of his points. It's not like Marleau is not a good passer either I've seen him fire off a doozy now and then as well.

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04-10-2010, 08:04 AM
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Originally Posted by BlueBeard View Post
Where is this 40% coming from? How many times did Jumbo Joe put a primary assist on one of Marleau's goals? How many are ES and how many are on the PP? Now lets take that a bit deeper how many of those goals are from plays that only an elite playmaker can make and how many are simpler plays that most top six forwards could execute? Does it really matter if they both tallied a helper on some Cheechoo PP goal?
I don't know the answer to all those question; and to be honest I don't see that it matters.
I'm dealing with the raw numbers here. The raw numbers were first posted here.

Quote:
Thorton involved with Marleau points

2006-07 33 of 78
2007-08 12 of 48
2008-09 37 of 71
2009-10 33 0f 74 as of March 23
That is 42%.
That fiigure is FAR too big to discount when discussing him as a potential FA signing.
On his own, I doubt Marleau does any better than McDonald.
While I certainly wouldn't mind a "shoot first" McDonald-caliber player, I would never even think to advocate that kind of player over Kovalchuk; who has proven himself to be one of the top 3 goal scorers in the league even when he's stuck on a line with Todd White and Slava Kozlov. As a much cheaper "backup" option if we can't land Kovy, sure; but not as our primary off-season target.

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