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Value of Wiz as arbitration-eligible RFA

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04-19-2010, 10:51 AM
  #1
Emerald Duck
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Value of Wiz as arbitration-eligible RFA

If Wisniewski decides to decline the Ducks' offseason contract offers and selects arbitration, then I think Murray will try to deal him. I'm assuming at this point that the Ducks are looking at a $3.0M offer while Wiz is looking at closer to $4.0M. However, how do we get fair value for Wiz when no one knows what an arbitrator may grant in binding arbitration ?

Are the Ducks better off making an early off season contract offer to Wiz, and moving him quickly if he refuses ? Not many players reach arbitration these days so I'm not sure how the marketplace discounts award risk.

If we lose Wiz then we'll need another dman who can play 24 mins a night. We might be able to upgrade the position if the budget is $4M per, but the more we spend on Wiz or his replacement, the less we can spend on a UFA dman.

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04-19-2010, 11:31 AM
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paine
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The Ducks should trade Wisniewski... IMO, he is worth 2-2.5 million. I think a big problem this season was the disappointing play by Whitney and Wisniewski.

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04-19-2010, 11:44 AM
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justheducks
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If we don't trade him we will get nothing for him if we don't resign him.

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Old
04-19-2010, 01:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justheducks View Post
If we don't trade him we will get nothing for him if we don't resign him.
wrong. we would get compensation or go into arbitration an resign him

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Old
04-19-2010, 06:47 PM
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Paul4587
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Yeah but if he goes to arbitration and is awarded something ridiculous Murray either has to take it or lose him for nothing. We only get compensation if he signs an offer sheet which is pretty unlikely.

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Old
04-19-2010, 09:06 PM
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Originally Posted by bradycook14 View Post
wrong. we would get compensation or go into arbitration an resign him
wrong. If he goes to arbitration and we don't resign him he walks and we get absolutely nothing. If he is awarded anything more then $3 million you can bet we don't take it and we loss him for nada.

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04-19-2010, 10:35 PM
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Originally Posted by justheducks View Post
wrong. If he goes to arbitration and we don't resign him he walks and we get absolutely nothing. If he is awarded anything more then $3 million you can bet we don't take it and we loss him for nada.
It all depends on the contract term the Ducks choose. If Wiz chooses arbitration, then the Ducks get to decide before the hearing if the award will be for one year or two years.

If the Ducks choose one year and then walk away after the award, then Wiz becomes a UFA immediately. If the Ducks choose two years, then they have to honor the first year before they can walk away. Wiz would receive a one year contract at the award figure, then he would become a UFA.

Since the arbitration hearing will not be until Aug/Sep, the Ducks may be able to firm up their blue line with a UFA before they have to decide about Wiz (trade his rights or go to arbitration). If they select a one year term, then you're probably right -- the team will walk away from a high award (I think $3.5M+ and the team walks). If they are unable to sign a UFA, then they may choose a two year term and take their chances. At least they know Wiz will be back for one year, albeit at an unfavorable salary if they lose the arbitration hearing.

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04-19-2010, 11:21 PM
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Sean Garrity
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Emerald Duck View Post
It all depends on the contract term the Ducks choose. If Wiz chooses arbitration, then the Ducks get to decide before the hearing if the award will be for one year or two years.

If the Ducks choose one year and then walk away after the award, then Wiz becomes a UFA immediately. If the Ducks choose two years, then they have to honor the first year before they can walk away. Wiz would receive a one year contract at the award figure, then he would become a UFA.

Since the arbitration hearing will not be until Aug/Sep, the Ducks may be able to firm up their blue line with a UFA before they have to decide about Wiz (trade his rights or go to arbitration). If they select a one year term, then you're probably right -- the team will walk away from a high award (I think $3.5M+ and the team walks). If they are unable to sign a UFA, then they may choose a two year term and take their chances. At least they know Wiz will be back for one year, albeit at an unfavorable salary if they lose the arbitration hearing.
So him filing for arbitration last year means that he becomes eligible the following season no matter what?

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Old
04-19-2010, 11:43 PM
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hockeycrew22
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I hope he'll be gone by the draft. I want him in a package to move up in the draft.

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04-19-2010, 11:49 PM
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i hope he'll be gone by next season personally.. paying him 2.75 mil was not worth it this year and if he wants a raise he definitely wont be worth it..

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04-20-2010, 12:17 AM
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Originally Posted by karacter View Post
So him filing for arbitration last year means that he becomes eligible the following season no matter what?
Last year he signed a one year contract prior to the actual hearing if I recall which preserved his arbitration rights for this year if he (or the Ducks) elect to go that route.

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04-20-2010, 12:08 PM
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If we can sign better UFA defensemen before-hand, I am all for letting Wiz take arbitration and then decline and let him go for nothing.

Yes, we would be getting nothing for him, but if we used his cap space to sign other players (getting them for nothing), it more than balances out.

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04-20-2010, 12:34 PM
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Sean Garrity
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Emerald Duck View Post
Last year he signed a one year contract prior to the actual hearing if I recall which preserved his arbitration rights for this year if he (or the Ducks) elect to go that route.
"Wisniewski filed for salary arbitration seven days before the agreement was reached on Monday..."

http://www.examiner.com/x-5689-Anahe...Ducks-Examiner

I'm not trying to be an ahole, I'm trying to learn the rules about salary arbitration.

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Old
04-20-2010, 01:05 PM
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paine
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Quote:
Originally Posted by karacter View Post
"Wisniewski filed for salary arbitration seven days before the agreement was reached on Monday..."

http://www.examiner.com/x-5689-Anahe...Ducks-Examiner

I'm not trying to be an ahole, I'm trying to learn the rules about salary arbitration.
And he never went to a hearing...

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Old
04-20-2010, 01:09 PM
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Kevin Forbes
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For interest sake, here's a look at some of the talk we had last offseason about Wisniewski and how much his contract might be worth. We talked a lot about comparables and the final number we figured was 2.65, when in fact he signed for 2.75.

http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t...ght=Wisniewski
Talking comparables and how the arbitration process worked.

http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t...ght=Wisniewski
Talking actual numbers and figuring out how much he would/should make.

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Old
04-20-2010, 01:41 PM
  #16
Emerald Duck
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Quote:
Originally Posted by karacter View Post
"Wisniewski filed for salary arbitration seven days before the agreement was reached on Monday..."

http://www.examiner.com/x-5689-Anahe...Ducks-Examiner

I'm not trying to be an ahole, I'm trying to learn the rules about salary arbitration.
Wiz had to file for arbitration to show the Ducks that he was serious about going through the process. It was a negotiation tactic to get the Ducks to reconsider their offer, and it succeeded since they made him a new offer that he accepted.

Usually these arbitration filings never make it to the actual hearing as both parties reach an agreement beforehand. Neither side wants to cast their fate with a third party to decide which salary proposal is appropriate.

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Old
04-20-2010, 02:17 PM
  #17
Sean Garrity
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Emerald Duck View Post
Wiz had to file for arbitration to show the Ducks that he was serious about going through the process. It was a negotiation tactic to get the Ducks to reconsider their offer, and it succeeded since they made him a new offer that he accepted.

Usually these arbitration filings never make it to the actual hearing as both parties reach an agreement beforehand. Neither side wants to cast their fate with a third party to decide which salary proposal is appropriate.
THanks.

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Old
04-20-2010, 07:34 PM
  #18
snarktacular
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin Forbes View Post
For interest sake, here's a look at some of the talk we had last offseason about Wisniewski and how much his contract might be worth. We talked a lot about comparables and the final number we figured was 2.65, when in fact he signed for 2.75.

http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t...ght=Wisniewski
Talking comparables and how the arbitration process worked.

http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t...ght=Wisniewski
Talking actual numbers and figuring out how much he would/should make.
And related to that, I used the same equation (too lazy to try to find new comparables) back in the trade deadline. http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?p=24162612

With Wisniewski's prorated stats at the trade deadline (he will probably be hurt by the missed ice time from the suspension), that same equation gives me 4.26 million.

I don't expect him to really get that much, but I think the people that have been setting the go/no go point in the 2's will be somewhat surprised.


edit: actually I forgot that in my post I had erroneously multiplied Wis' PPG by 2, because that was my original intention with the function. So ignore the 4.26 million estimate.

I just redid Wiz's numbers and my new estimate is 3.28 million. Wisniewski has played 71.6% of the possible games since 06-07, he has a PPG of .383, and he has a TOI of 24:20 this year. His "salary index" is thus ~2.21.


Last edited by snarktacular: 04-20-2010 at 09:06 PM.
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