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Old
04-20-2010, 04:30 PM
  #51
MinnesotaFats
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Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
I'll say what I said in the other thread --

When's the last time the Oilers had two forwards as talented as Hemsky and Hall (or Seguin) in the lineup together?

Maybe Weight + Guerin 10+ years ago, but probably more likely Messier + Kurri 20 years ago on the group that won the Stanley Cup. Think about that for a second.

So why are we in a mad rush to get magic beans for that? Shouldn't we at least give it ... I dunno 40 games to see what we even have in the first place?

We've never had a player as good as Hall or Seguin to play with Hemsky, and their development could exponentially be boosted by having a similarly skilled player to create with from day 1.

Hockey isn't like basketball where you can just insert of a LeBron James or Kobe Bryant and they can dominate on their own.

If you wanna deal him at the trade deadline, he'll have plenty of term left on his contract and Filatov/Voracek/whoever will likely still be on the table for him. Hell, if his point production rises next year (not impossible since it was up this year before he got hurt playing with scrubs like JFJ and Horcoff) ... his value will go up big time.

You're telling me his value couldn't go up playing with Penner + Brule and alternating with Hall from time to time for 40 games and showing other teams he's healthy? Pretty damn good chance even if you're hellbent on trading him.
So basically you are advocating keeping Hemsky now so that we can see whether there is magic between he and who ever we draft? And then what? If they play well together, we keep Hemsky for the length of his contract and risk letting him go for nothing?

What you're missing is that regardless of how well Hemsky and Hall/Seguin play together, they aren't going to make this team a contender next year. The rest of the team is too bad. Look at TB - Stamkos and St.Louis had great years, but they couldnt make the playoffs. Magic between two players doesnt matter when the supporting cast is weak.

Tambellini has a unique opportunity here to turn a good player with a great contract into another top 6 pick. That would go a long way to setting this team up for years to come. But apparently you'd rather see if there is magic between Hemsky and our pick and risk losing Hemsky for nothing or close to nothing (RE: Ryan Smyth deal). And when your plan does nothing for the team, it will somehow be Tambellini's fault because he didnt do anything.

Bottom line is this team is going to be bad for a few more years. The ****storm will end a lot faster if we start stock piling good prospects and now rather than letting guys like Hemsky go for beans.


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Old
04-20-2010, 04:35 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by MinnesotaFats View Post
So basically you are advocating keeping Hemsky now so that we can see whether there is magic between he and who ever we draft? And then what? If they play well together, we keep Hemsky for the length of his contract and risk letting him go for nothing?

What you're missing is that regardless of how well Hemsky and Hall/Seguin play together, they aren't going to make this team a contender next year. The rest of the team is too bad. Look at TB - Stamkos and St.Louis had great years, but they couldnt make the playoffs. Magic between two players doesnt matter when the supporting cast is weak.

Tambellini has a unique opportunity here to turn a good player with a great contract into another top 6 pick. That would go a long way to setting this team up for years to come. But apparently you'd rather see if there is magic between Hemsky and our pick and risk losing Hemsky for nothing or close to nothing (RE: Ryan Smyth deal). And when your plan does nothing for the team, it will somehow be Tambellini's fault because he didnt do anything.

Bottom line is this team is going to be bad for a few more years. The ****storm will end a lot faster if we start stock piling good prospects and now rather than letting guys like Hemsky go for beans.

Who says Hemsky isn't that player to play with Hall/Seguin?

There's probably a 30% chance of getting a player better than Hemsky with picks 4-10 if you really want to take a look at the draft for the last ten years. I think it's actually less than that.

He's young ... and if he creates "magic" with Hall/Seguin ... then why wouldn't we want to sign him to an extension. We have cap room coming that summer and he's already shown a willingness to stay here if the hockey is good.

Two years ago the Blackhawks weren't even in the playoffs, let alone a Cup contender.

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04-20-2010, 04:35 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Ari Gold View Post
I can't wait to see how many of you blow your lids when Hemsky is dealt this summer, likely for a top 5 pick. I love the guys talent, but so many of you act like he's just a notch below Crosby or Ovechkin! So many people are getting talent and production mixed up. You know him being out wasn't the ONLY major injury that contributed to this season. Souray and Khabibulin were pretty important pieces as well. He is what he is. A very talented RW that is inconsistant.
and a 5th overall pick is better then him because........

would you trade him straight up for Brayden Schenn? how about Filatov? or Luke Schenn ..Alzner? or Kessel ? Carey Price? Blake Wheeler? Al Montoya

Chistov, Torres and Ryan Whitney being the other 5th overall picks of this decade.

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04-20-2010, 04:37 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by PenzOil View Post
we have been sucking despite of Hemsky not because of Hemsky. He has been an still is our best player. Lets ship him out instead of seeing if he can create some magic with Hall.. A 5th overall pick for Hemsky trade would not stop us from sucking eitehr.
I didnt say we have been sucking BECAUSE of Hemsky. I said we have been sucking even with him healthy. Thats because the team blows. The only thing that grows in **** is mushrooms.

Whether he creates magic with our pick or not doesnt matter. Without improvements throughout the line up, we are wasting a great asset in Hemsky because this team isnt going to be competitive over next two years.

You critique me for wanting to deal Hemsky for beans, but you want to keep him around for the sake of "magic". You're more delusional and misguided than Lowe was as GM

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04-20-2010, 04:42 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by MinnesotaFats View Post
So basically you are advocating keeping Hemsky now so that we can see whether there is magic between he and who ever we draft? And then what? If they play well together, we keep Hemsky for the length of his contract and risk letting him go for nothing?

What you're missing is that regardless of how well Hemsky and Hall/Seguin play together, they aren't going to make this team a contender next year. The rest of the team is too bad. Look at TB - Stamkos and St.Louis had great years, but they couldnt make the playoffs. Magic between two players doesnt matter when the supporting cast is weak.

Tambellini has a unique opportunity here to turn a good player with a great contract into another top 6 pick. That would go a long way to setting this team up for years to come. But apparently you'd rather see if there is magic between Hemsky and our pick and risk losing Hemsky for nothing or close to nothing (RE: Ryan Smyth deal). And when your plan does nothing for the team, it will somehow be Tambellini's fault because he didnt do anything.


bolded part 1: or we can keep him for the next 150 games, make him a good offer ...see if he takes it... and if not then trade him away for picks\prospects etc

bolded part 2: how is another top 6 pick going to set us up for future.. if anything it will be another young RFA that we'll have to resign after that ELC is over.. Smyth got us 2 supposedly good prospects (former 1st rounders) + a 15th overall pick .. Its too bad that didnt amount to much ..

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04-20-2010, 04:42 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by MinnesotaFats View Post
Calling what I said "utterly ridiculous" seems like beef. Ah well.

I'm not going to put players names in to deals. I hate trade proposals. But if you need more of a sense of value, Im not talking about a throw-in, but a player making maybe around $2-2.5 M. We are operating in a cap world afterall, and while Hemsky's contract is nice based on his production, money will likely still be a factor.
In the post I saw I never saw you propose a player, (perhaps I missed it or you posted it earlier) if so that was my mistake.

I thought it was the draft picks only so I was under a mistaken impression which you have since clarified for me so it truly comes down to a difference of opinion on when he will gain the most value.

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04-20-2010, 04:46 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
Who says Hemsky isn't that player to play with Hall/Seguin?

There's probably a 30% chance of getting a player better than Hemsky with picks 4-10 if you really want to take a look at the draft for the last ten years. I think it's actually less than that.

He's young ... and if he creates "magic" with Hall/Seguin ... then why wouldn't we want to sign him to an extension. We have cap room coming that summer and he's already shown a willingness to stay here if the hockey is good.

Two years ago the Blackhawks weren't even in the playoffs, let alone a Cup contender.
Simply because the Oilers want to resign him, doesnt mean that feeling is reciprocal. He could still walk for nothing. The chances of this team being a playoff contender over the next two years are slim. Hemsky, Im sure, wants to play for a winner. If he can sign with Detroit or Chicago in two years, or stay with the Oilers, where do you think he goes?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PenzOil View Post
and a 5th overall pick is better then him because........

would you trade him straight up for Brayden Schenn? how about Filatov? or Luke Schenn ..Alzner? or Kessel ? Carey Price? Blake Wheeler? Al Montoya

Chistov, Torres and Ryan Whitney being the other 5th overall picks of this decade.
This totally misses the point. If those picks were guaranteed to be better than Hemsky, teams wouldnt trade them. Its a total gamble as to whether the picks will turn out to be a good, productive NHLer or not. But its also a serious gamble to hold on to Hemsky in the hopes of resigning him and risk losing him for nothing or a pittance compared to what he would fetch now. We both want to gamble - Im simply think it makes more sense to turn an asset into potentially very good assets right now.

Put your illogical hypothetical a different way: would you trade two years of Hemsky for 7 years of Luke Schenn, Brayden Schenn, Filatov, Alzner, or Kessel? Yeah, I would. Its about asset management. Its what the Oilers current management has not grasped for the past five years and its what you fail to understand now.

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04-20-2010, 04:48 PM
  #58
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Blindly stockpiling picks like they're hockey cards doesn't always lead to a successful franchise either.

Florida and Columbus have had how many high picks the last 10 years?

Besides really how does playing even 40 games with Penner + Brule + Hall and showing other GMs he's healthy do anything but help Hemsky's trade value?

He was producing at a career high PPG rate with Horcoff and JFJ, lol, it's likely he could only increase his trade value if the Oilers hang on to him for a little longer at least and then make a decision.

This is NOT the same situation as Ryan Smyth, Hemsky still has 2 more years of term left on his deal, not three months.

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04-20-2010, 04:49 PM
  #59
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if we dont draft taylor hall i will be disappointed

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04-20-2010, 04:49 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by PenzOil View Post
bolded part 1: or we can keep him for the next 150 games, make him a good offer ...see if he takes it... and if not then trade him away for picks\prospects etc

bolded part 2: how is another top 6 pick going to set us up for future.. if anything it will be another young RFA that we'll have to resign after that ELC is over.. Smyth got us 2 supposedly good prospects (former 1st rounders) + a 15th overall pick .. Its too bad that didnt amount to much ..
Your response to bolded part 2 points out the foolishness of taking the path you propose in your response to bolded part 1. Do you not see that?

Do you think a UFA Hemsky gets you a better return that a UFA Smyth? What would you choose: a Ryan Smyth-like return for Hemsky, or a top 6 pick and another good prospect/player?

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04-20-2010, 04:55 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
Blindly stockpiling picks like they're hockey cards doesn't always lead to a successful franchise either.

Florida and Columbus have had how many high picks the last 10 years?

Besides really how does playing even 40 games with Penner + Brule + Hall and showing other GMs he's healthy do anything but help Hemsky's trade value?

He was producing at a career high PPG rate with Horcoff and JFJ, lol, it's likely he could only increase his trade value if the Oilers hang on to him for a little longer at least and then make a decision.

This is NOT the same situation as Ryan Smyth, Hemsky still has 2 more years of term left on his deal, not three months.
Because, you're not getting a top 6 pick if you deal him in the middle of the season or at the trade deadline. The teams that look likely to hold those picks, probably arent going to be moving them. In this year's draft, you have teams like FLA, CBJ, TBL that are all under pressure to make changes and get in to the playoffs next year. Adding Hemsky over the summer gives them a better shot of that.

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04-20-2010, 04:56 PM
  #62
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Originally Posted by MinnesotaFats View Post
Simply because the Oilers want to resign him, doesnt mean that feeling is reciprocal. He could still walk for nothing. The chances of this team being a playoff contender over the next two years are slim. Hemsky, Im sure, wants to play for a winner. If he can sign with Detroit or Chicago in two years, or stay with the Oilers, where do you think he goes?



This totally misses the point. If those picks were guaranteed to be better than Hemsky, teams wouldnt trade them. Its a total gamble as to whether the picks will turn out to be a good, productive NHLer or not. But its also a serious gamble to hold on to Hemsky in the hopes of resigning him and risk losing him for nothing or a pittance compared to what he would fetch now. We both want to gamble - Im simply think it makes more sense to turn an asset into potentially very good assets right now.

Put your illogical hypothetical a different way: would you trade two years of Hemsky for 7 years of Luke Schenn, Brayden Schenn, Filatov, Alzner, or Kessel? Yeah, I would. Its about asset management. Its what the Oilers current management has not grasped for the past five years and its what you fail to understand now.
part1: No Hemsky cant walk for nothing if we find out his intentions in advance.. <ala Smyth>. His value might actually be higher then now if he has a strong year.

part2: Why is it 2 yrs of Hemsky? Kessel didnt get BOS 7 years of service did he? Who knows Hall might request out of EDM before Hemsky..

Its 2 years of Hemsky at 4.1M + atleast a mid\late 1st rounder vs
an unknown prospect who might command 4.1M+ once his ELC is over or pull a Filatov.

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04-20-2010, 04:56 PM
  #63
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Originally Posted by edmoil3 View Post
if we dont draft taylor hall i will be disappointed
If we do draft Hall I will be dissapointed

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04-20-2010, 04:57 PM
  #64
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I actually looked at the draft from years 1999-2008 (9 years)

In that time the only players in the 4-11 pick range I'd choose over Hemsky were:

Vanek (5th 03), Phaneuf (9th 03), Carter (11th 03), Price (5th 05), Kopitar (11th 05), Backstrom (4th 06), Kessel (5th 06).

So 7 guys out of 72 possible selections ... that's less than 11% chance of getting a player better than Hemsky with a 4-11 range pick and even then, some of those guys above I don't necessarily think are a slam dunk better than Hemsky.

Something you guys should think about, it's thrown around here like getting a 6th round pick somehow is like a 50-50 chance of getting a player better/equal to Hemsky ... in reality it's not even close to that.

When you hit the jackpot by getting a really good player after the no.10 pick ... you hang on to them because it's actually rarer than people think it is. It's not about have a nice list of stock piled picks like "oooh, look at all the shiny 6th overall picks we've stacked together" ... it's about getting guys who can actually play and impact the game in a big way.


Last edited by Soundwave: 04-20-2010 at 05:03 PM.
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04-20-2010, 04:58 PM
  #65
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Originally Posted by MinnesotaFats View Post
Your response to bolded part 2 points out the foolishness of taking the path you propose in your response to bolded part 1. Do you not see that?

Do you think a UFA Hemsky gets you a better return that a UFA Smyth? What would you choose: a Ryan Smyth-like return for Hemsky, or a top 6 pick and another good prospect/player?
I would choose 2 years of Hemsky + a Smyth like return if Hemsky doesnt agree to an extension.

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04-20-2010, 05:00 PM
  #66
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Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
Blindly stockpiling picks like they're hockey cards doesn't always lead to a successful franchise either.

Florida and Columbus have had how many high picks the last 10 years?

Besides really how does playing even 40 games with Penner + Brule + Hall and showing other GMs he's healthy do anything but help Hemsky's trade value?

He was producing at a career high PPG rate with Horcoff and JFJ, lol, it's likely he could only increase his trade value if the Oilers hang on to him for a little longer at least and then make a decision.

This is NOT the same situation as Ryan Smyth, Hemsky still has 2 more years of term left on his deal, not three months.
No its not that same situation as Smyth. But what some here are advocating could lead to the same type of forced trade. We wait two years, offer him a contract, he balks, we deal him at the deadline for mediocre crap. People complain for three plus years about bad asset management.

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04-20-2010, 05:06 PM
  #67
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Originally Posted by PenzOil View Post
part1: No Hemsky cant walk for nothing if we find out his intentions in advance.. <ala Smyth>. His value might actually be higher then now if he has a strong year.

part2: Why is it 2 yrs of Hemsky? Kessel didnt get BOS 7 years of service did he? Who knows Hall might request out of EDM before Hemsky.. You're right...lets trade all of our picks for existing NHLers because the picks might want to be traded in the future.

Its 2 years of Hemsky at 4.1M + atleast a mid\late 1st rounder vs
an unknown prospect who might command 4.1M+ once his ELC is over or pull a Filatov.
If the pick is commanding that sort of salary its for a good reason - probably means they are putting up close to Hemsky numbers.

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04-20-2010, 05:08 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by MinnesotaFats View Post
No its not that same situation as Smyth. But what some here are advocating could lead to the same type of forced trade. We wait two years, offer him a contract, he balks, we deal him at the deadline for mediocre crap. People complain for three plus years about bad asset management.
Not really.

You have next year's trade deadline. Then July 1st 2011. Then all summer 2011. Then trade deadline 2012 before it's equivalent to the Smyth situation.

Also really ... **** the Smyth situation. I'm tired of doing everything because of Smyth. Who cares. Because we're so terrified of a Smyth situation happening again we went out gave Horcoff what ever the hell he wanted. You can't make even decision based on what happened with Ryan Smyth ... good player, but sheesh, he wasn't Wayne Gretzky.

The return on Smyth wasn't even that bad ... 2 former 1st round picks and another 1st on top of that? It was the right idea, they just didn't do enough home work on which prospects they were getting back and happened to get a 1st in a weak draft year. What did you guys think we were going to get for Ryan Smyth? Jeff Carter? Carey Price? Phil Kessel? Look at what Colorado got for him.

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04-20-2010, 05:18 PM
  #69
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Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
I actually looked at the draft from years 1999-2008 (9 years)

In that time the only players in the 4-11 pick range I'd choose over Hemsky were:

Vanek (5th 03), Phaneuf (9th 03), Carter (11th 03), Price (5th 05), Kopitar (11th 05), Backstrom (4th 06), Kessel (5th 06).

So 7 guys out of 72 possible selections ... that's less than 11% chance of getting a player better than Hemsky with a 4-11 range pick and even then, some of those guys above I don't necessarily think are a slam dunk better than Hemsky.

Something you guys should think about, it's thrown around here like getting a 6th round pick somehow is like a 50-50 chance of getting a player better/equal to Hemsky ... in reality it's not even close to that.

When you hit the jackpot by getting a really good player after the no.10 pick ... you hang on to them because it's actually rarer than people think it is. It's not about have a nice list of stock piled picks like "oooh, look at all the shiny 6th overall picks we've stacked together" ... it's about getting guys who can actually play and impact the game in a big way.
Never have I claimed that the pick would be better than Hemsky. Actually, I said it was a gamble.

If we could hang on to Hemsky for a period longer than the next two years, Id love it. If I had my choice between Hemksy for more than another two years and another top 6 pick in this year's draft, Id take Hemsky (perhaps wrongly). But I think Hemsky will be gone when his contract expires, and based on that belief, I think the time to deal him is at this year's draft. There will not be a time when we get more value for him IMO.

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04-20-2010, 05:19 PM
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I think more than anything Hemsky wants a chance to compete and win - and to have success with talented linemates.

So basically, the Oilers need to make the 2nd/3rd round of the playoffs by 2012. Is it possible? Yes, as unlikely as it is.

This isn't the first year of our "rebuild". Our rebuild started in 2007 when we acquired a top-5 draft talent (Hickey doesn't count) in Sam Gagner, continued in 2008 when we grabbed a top-12 draft talent in Eberle (if you re-did it), as well as in 2009 when we grabbed a top-5 draft talent in MPS, and will reach its paramount with a #1 draft talent in 2010 - with another one possibly coming in 2011. This team is similar to the Hawks in 2006 - two top selections away from having the cornerstones in place. With a Hall/Seguin this year and a Larsson/Couturier next year, we could have a 2008-esque Chicago Blackhawks team.

Sure, they didn't make the playoffs - but the expectations were set for their success in 2009. Maybe Hemsky will see that as the 2011-2012 season comes to a close and re-sign?

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04-20-2010, 05:22 PM
  #71
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Originally Posted by MinnesotaFats View Post
Never have I claimed that the pick would be better than Hemsky. Actually, I said it was a gamble.

If we could hang on to Hemsky for a period longer than the next two years, Id love it. If I had my choice between Hemksy for more than another two years and another top 6 pick in this year's draft, Id take Hemsky (perhaps wrongly). But I think Hemsky will be gone when his contract expires, and based on that belief, I think the time to deal him is at this year's draft. There will not be a time when we get more value for him IMO.
Lets be clear by what you mean by "gamble" though because I think that term is thrown around way too casually.

We are talking about likely a 90% chance that the pick we trade Hemsky for is going to be a worse player (and probably substantially worse) even if that pick is no.4/5/6 if you are looking at recent draft history. Players as talented as Hemsky do not pop out like candy even at the 4-6 pick range.

I also question how many GMs really will be doing back flips to get a guy who hasn't played in 8 months with no guarantees. His value right now is likely pretty low.

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04-20-2010, 05:23 PM
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Not really.

You have next year's trade deadline. Then July 1st 2011. Then all summer 2011. Then trade deadline 2012 before it's equivalent to the Smyth situation.

Also really ... **** the Smyth situation. I'm tired of doing everything because of Smyth. Who cares. Because we're so terrified of a Smyth situation happening again we went out gave Horcoff what ever the hell he wanted. You can't make even decision based on what happened with Ryan Smyth ... good player, but sheesh, he wasn't Wayne Gretzky.

The return on Smyth wasn't even that bad ... 2 former 1st round picks and another 1st on top of that? It was the right idea, they just didn't do enough home work on which prospects they were getting back and happened to get a 1st in a weak draft year. What did you guys think we were going to get for Ryan Smyth? Jeff Carter? Carey Price? Phil Kessel? Look at what Colorado got for him.
Diminishing returns is all Im saying.

Im working from the inevitability of Hemsky leaving the team in two years and Tambellini's desire/need to fundamentally reshape this team. In that light, moving Hemsky now just seems the smart choice.

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04-20-2010, 05:23 PM
  #73
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MinnesotaFats View Post
A top 8 pick and a player coming back for Hemsky and a high 2nd is ridiculous? Of course Im a bit off the mark, but you make it sound like we should expect way more in return (which would be what?)
Didn't you say in your original proposal that the Oilers would have to add a 2nd rounder (which is valuable in this year's draft) and take back salary in addition to trading Hemsky for a top 8 pick? that looks to me like an overpayment for a 5-8 pick (which i'm assuming are the range of picks that you were talking about).

Edit: You're above proposal is the same as the original proposal, i got all mixed up but it still looks like an overpayment for a non top 5 pick

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04-20-2010, 05:25 PM
  #74
Soundwave
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I'd rather have a player like Voracek, who at least has some track record of playing in the NHL or even AHL, than just picks for Hemsky, and that player will be available for Hemsky at the trade deadline, next summer, etc. IMO.

I mean if we gotta be bent over by gun barrell and trade Hemsky coming off an injury, where his trade value is very low, without even giving him a chance to play with Hall/Seguin (because he couldn't possibly get better than playing with Horcoff + JFJ) for a whopping 10% chance that we end up getting a player in the draft better than Hemsky at pick 4/5/6/7/8/9/10/11 ... no thanks.

I'll wait. And take a Voracek or Beach + 2nd at the deadline next year.


Last edited by Soundwave: 04-20-2010 at 05:33 PM.
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Old
04-20-2010, 05:43 PM
  #75
MinnesotaFats
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
I'd rather have a player like Voracek, who at least has some track record of playing in the NHL or even AHL, than just picks for Hemsky, and that player will be available for Hemsky at the trade deadline, next summer, etc. IMO.

I mean if we gotta be bent over by gun barrell and trade Hemsky coming off an injury, where his trade value is very low, without even giving him a chance to play with Hall/Seguin (because he couldn't possibly get better than playing with Horcoff + JFJ) for a whopping 10% chance that we end up getting a player in the draft better than Hemsky at pick 4/5/6/7/8/9/10/11 ... no thanks.

I'll wait. And take a Voracek or Beach + 2nd at the deadline next year.
Voracek put up 50 pts this year. If at the trade deadline, he has improved that total, do you think CBJ is going to give him up for a year and a bit of Hemsky? I wouldnt be so sure.

And if you'd rather have a proven NHLer, why Beach? Come one - at least be consistent. I'll take a top 6 pick in this years draft over Beach and a 2nd. **** me.

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