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Old
04-22-2010, 08:32 PM
  #51
sarcastro
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Originally Posted by MrSandMan View Post
I didn't have much faith in Howard, tbh.
I wanted to see him play in the NHL because I had a feeling he might be the real deal. He only got in one game last season and got lit up, but his 8 appearances the 2 previous seasons were solid and I was hoping he'd get a shot as the backup a year or two earlier.

HD would have you believe that means I wanted to hand the keys to the franchise to him (or Jake McCracken, whoever picked up the phone first), but in reality I wanted to see him get in a stretch of NHL games to see where his development was.

This kid is damn lucky they didn't give up on him. He almost lost his roster spot to Dan Cloutier for god's sake. Then he'd probably have ended up as a Thrasher or something. <shudder>

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04-22-2010, 08:39 PM
  #52
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HD would have you believe that means I wanted to hand the keys to the franchise to him (or Jake McCracken, whoever picked up the phone first), but in reality I wanted to see him get in a stretch of NHL games to see where his development was.
No, your position is that it's impossible to tell where anybody's development is until they get into the NHL, at least as it relates to how they do in the AHL. I don't know if you are as dismissive about what players do at even earlier levels or not.

Mine is that your position is silly, and a guy needs to succeed at a lower level before you know he's ready at a higher level. The Wings mostly agree, since they didn't know if Howard was any good based on his inconsistent success at the AHL. Heck, even you agree, since you had no idea if he was a good NHL player or not.

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04-22-2010, 08:45 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by TheOtherOne View Post
My post was a response to:



My response was influenced by this one as well, though admittedly Fugu didn't go quite so far as to advocate a management change:



My point being that some of us make it sound like the franchise is crumbling around us, although in the past few years and excluding the current year as the injury outlier we have been in the best shape of any franchise. Of any sport. In any league. Ever.

Don't crucify me for exaggerating a little please.
Hah.
Well, no offense, but I don't think anyone here believes the franchise is crumbling.
I think it's quite obvious that the cap has cut the Wings down to size. We're clearly not head and shoulders above the league. And there are times when this team struggles when it's quite easy to imagine that the Wings really are just like every other team in a very even league.

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04-22-2010, 08:46 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
I think he surpassed just about everybody's expectations, except Z40's.


Is it just me, or is the brass getting weak with player projections?

Keeping Cheli over Quincey.

Letting a 30 G scorer leave so they could have a midget and an overpaid third line center?
Giving Drapes and Ozzie 3 yr contracts when they're CLEARLY waaaaay past 35 yrs of age-- and their best years.

Bringing back JWil.


Holy crap.
Here we go again.

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04-22-2010, 08:55 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by HockeyinHD View Post


What you should have learned is that you can trust my, Joyce's and the Wings analysis... it's just that even we aren't perfect.

And absolutely, I think the next new wave in prospect development is going to be the 'Wheel of IT', where GMs just start putting random prospect names on a big wheel and spin it once a month to select who gets called up, and then spins a second wheel to see where they are playing.

Seems you and the Wings have diverged on a few contracts, so how you get to be in the braintrust camp is.... well, vewwy intwesting.

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04-22-2010, 08:56 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post
I wanted to see him play in the NHL because I had a feeling he might be the real deal.
And I don't see why people don't accept this.
They accepted it with Leino this year.
They're going to accept it with Kindl next year.

Howard's play in the AHL was inconclusive. He was an AHL All star. But he also struggled.
So he showed the potential. He didn't show the consistency.

Guess what. We're going to have the exact same scenario with Kindl next season. Granted, he'll be less exposed than Howard was. But these guys have shown enough to prove they are worth a good look.

There was no reason not to give Howard every opportunity this season.

The problem with this "overripe" prospect development system is that players stagnate at a certain point in the AHL. We've seen in the AHL with Ericsson, Kindl and Howard.
We're going to see it more as long as the Wings are committed to this philosophy,

Hopefully, it's not costing these players valuable development experience.

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04-22-2010, 08:56 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Filppula View Post
Here we go again.

What did you expect from a thread titled, "Ha! Ha, ha HA!"?



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04-23-2010, 01:49 AM
  #58
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Originally Posted by HockeyinHD View Post
Because Sammy's not a defenseman, and I think it's borderline nuts to go into a year with only 6 NHL dmen on a roster.

Depth is a good thing, Fugu. Sometimes the Wings have too much depth and they have to cut loose a borderline guy like Quincey, just like this year they are going to have to cut loose another borderline dman, and maybe two.

Again, you just seem to be living in this fantasy land where Kyle Quincey was going to be anything but a depth scrub in Detroit. He just wasn't. Everybody ahead of him is either clearly better overall or clearly better at a specialized phase.

He wasn't playing ahead of Lidstrom. He wasn't playing ahead of Rafalski. He wasn't playing ahead of Kronwall. He wasn't playing ahead of Stuart. He wasn't playing ahead of Ericsson. It's highly doubtful he would play ahead of a healthy Lilja because of his PK ability. That's 6. Maybe he beats out Lebda or not... he certainly didn't do it before... but that would still only make him the 7th dman, so even if Detroit had kept him it's almost a sure thing that he would be tossed over the side for Kindl, anyway.

LA clearly didn't think they needed to keep him. Colorado's scratched him a few times to end the season, and that team doesn't have a better than average dman anywhere on their roster, unless Cumiskey has developed since I last watched him.

I mean, Lord. I've never fully understood why you've been so steadfast in crying your regret over the Wings not keeping a 6th/7th dman. Those guys are a dime a dozen.
I'm curious why Quincey didn't get more games with the Wings in 07/08. He had a really solid playoffs the year before when Schneider and Kronwall were hurt and we didn't acquire Stuart until the deadline that year. Maybe he should have got more games with the team that year before they had to ultimately make their decision in the fall? Or maybe that was impossible due to cap restrictions or waivers?

I would appreciate some feedback on this as I don't remember the reasons for the decisions made regarding Quincey during that season. It does appear that they could have played him more (6 games) instead of Meech (32).

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04-23-2010, 07:20 AM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
What did you expect from a thread titled, "Ha! Ha, ha HA!"?


Filppula >> Cleary

I love Cleary but man, how you can defend him and then take shots at Filppula is crazy to me. Fil showed (again) that he can produce in the top 6. Hopefully Helm can continue to develop so we can leave Filppula there and not leave a gaping hole in the bottom 6.

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04-23-2010, 09:14 AM
  #60
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Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
Seems you and the Wings have diverged on a few contracts, so how you get to be in the braintrust camp is.... well, vewwy intwesting.
Depends on how homogeneous you think opinions are among Holland, Yzerman, Nill, Devellano, etc.

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04-23-2010, 09:17 AM
  #61
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Originally Posted by MikeyDangles View Post
I'm curious why Quincey didn't get more games with the Wings in 07/08. He had a really solid playoffs the year before when Schneider and Kronwall were hurt and we didn't acquire Stuart until the deadline that year. Maybe he should have got more games with the team that year before they had to ultimately make their decision in the fall? Or maybe that was impossible due to cap restrictions or waivers?

I would appreciate some feedback on this as I don't remember the reasons for the decisions made regarding Quincey during that season. It does appear that they could have played him more (6 games) instead of Meech (32).
I seem to recall Quincey getting his brain scrambled in 2007-8, but I could be wrong.

Also, IIRC the cutoff for how many NHL games you can play before it trips the 'full NHL season' thing in the CBA is 6 or 8 games.

Lastly, Meech was out of options. So he would have had to clear waivers while Quincey, at the time, would not.

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04-23-2010, 09:43 AM
  #62
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First of all, this article only has one effect - it should shake the confidence of every Red Wings fan. Why? The front office is fallible. This is yet another example of a mistake in judgment. Perhaps Z40 and I should offer our services as scouts, because we saw something that the front office did not. Anyone can parrot what they read or hear in the media. That's not impressive. It takes a lot more insight and guts to stand up and contradict "authoritative" opinion.

Fugu summarized the list of Holland's post-cap mistakes. Sure, each one taken individually seems small. But add them together and you see one of the reasons Detroit isn't a dominant team anymore. You can't afford to make these kinds of mistakes without slipping a notch or two.

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Originally Posted by Captain Bob View Post
And I don't see why people don't accept this.
They accepted it with Leino this year.
They're going to accept it with Kindl next year.

Howard's play in the AHL was inconclusive. He was an AHL All star. But he also struggled.
So he showed the potential. He didn't show the consistency.

Guess what. We're going to have the exact same scenario with Kindl next season. Granted, he'll be less exposed than Howard was. But these guys have shown enough to prove they are worth a good look.

There was no reason not to give Howard every opportunity this season.

The problem with this "overripe" prospect development system is that players stagnate at a certain point in the AHL. We've seen in the AHL with Ericsson, Kindl and Howard.
We're going to see it more as long as the Wings are committed to this philosophy,

Hopefully, it's not costing these players valuable development experience.
Overripe is the reason Quincey was lost. As someone already pointed out, overripe almost cost Howard his spot on the roster, as Cloutier was brought in to compete with him.

I think the reality here is that Holland and company (as well as HD) are expecting way too much out of prospects at the AHL level. Guess what - there are plenty of examples of players who "overperform" at the NHL level given their history in the AHL. This shouldn't be a surprise. The exact opposite happens, too, where players dominate in the AHL but look awful in the NHL.

The lesson here should be that it doesn't hurt to give prospects a cup of coffee in the NHL just to see where they're at. Sticking them in the minors for 3 or 4 years and then having to make a (rash) permanent decision about their future only sets yourself up for failure. Jeez... isn't that what some of us have been saying for a very long time now... and yet we get crucified for it? Some people never learn. Hopefully Holland is not one of those people.

-edit
I want to add that in addition to CB's point about Kindl, the other player that I'm concerned with is Mursak. We're already committed to carrying Kindl on the roster next season without much confidence that he's a legit NHL player, simply because he was inconsistent in the AHL and never spent a solid stretch with the Wings.

That's in contrast to Ericsson, Helm and Abdelkader for example. Those players all spent a lot of time in the minors, but also had one or more lengthy stints with the big club. So when they made (or in Abs case when he makes) the roster, we were pretty sure they were NHL ready.

Kindl will either be a future top 4 d-man, or he'll be the next Yan Golubovsky. Which will it be? The truth is that nobody knows, and it will cost us a roster spot to find out. If he'd gotten more time with the Wings prior to now, Holland would have been able to make a more informed decision.

Mursak has elite skills and speed to burn, yet his numbers so far in the AHL haven't been impressive (understatement). He's shown signs of turning around, but he's still behind where he should be if he's to bloom into a top six winger. If he spends all of next season in GR, we're going to be faced with a really tough decision. IMO, even if Mursak isn't blowing people's socks off, he needs to be recalled and plugged into the Wings roster just to see how he does. If we do that, it will make the decisions on A. resigning him and B. roster planning for 2011-12 both a whole lot clearer.


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Old
04-23-2010, 10:19 AM
  #63
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But add them together and you see one of the reasons Detroit isn't a dominant team anymore. You can't afford to make these kinds of mistakes without slipping a notch or two.
That's some real fuzzy math.

And you weren't exactly leading the Howard parade the last few years, so I have no idea what you think you saw that the front office didn't.

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04-23-2010, 10:28 AM
  #64
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That's some real fuzzy math.

And you weren't exactly leading the Howard parade the last few years, so I have no idea what you think you saw that the front office didn't.
First, how is that fuzzy math? Many small mistakes add up to a large one. It's obvious.

Secondly, I think you're unfamiliar with my older posts on Howard. Everyone was writing him off with few exceptions, and I was one of the exceptions. I exchanged barbs with Gare Joyce on the matter, and it is one of the primary reasons I have HD on ignore. Good lord.

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04-23-2010, 10:31 AM
  #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doublejack View Post
First, how is that fuzzy math? Many small mistakes add up to a large one. It's obvious.

Secondly, I think you're unfamiliar with my older posts on Howard. Everyone was writing him off with few exceptions, and I was one of the exceptions. I exchanged barbs with Gare Joyce on the matter, and it is one of the primary reasons I have HD on ignore. Good lord.
There were many exceptions. I never thought he wouldn't be playing in the NHL but ZB40 was the only one who really was far out enough to predict something like what happened this year. I re-read the 'we like Howard's potential' thread and the overall theme was 'he's not done, but i have no idea if he'll be a starter or backup'.

As for the math part, those mistakes that are being brought up are still quite small in nature. It's not like we're the NJ Devils.

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04-23-2010, 10:35 AM
  #66
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Do people not realize that the purpose of the salary cap was suppose to make teams like Detroit not dominant anymore? to make a even level playing field amongst all 30 teams?

Yet, despite all that, it took 4 FULL SEASONS of post-cap hockey to finally have the salary cap really affect Detroit in some manner. Ken Holland is not perfect, no GM is, he may make the wrong decision on certain players to keep and let go, and who do give a shot earlier than others, but all GMs do, name me a GM that has been dead on with which players to keep and let go? If people can't accept that Holland will make mistakes here and there and that the team will no longer dominate the NHL year in and year out you really are spoiled.

The fact that it took 4 FULL SEASONS for the cap to do this to us should leave you grateful that Holland is our GM and should applaud the majority of the moves he has made. And remember, we have been able to remain a top team with out top 10 draft picks over the past 18 years, which is something that all the new top teams have needed in order to even become competitive in a salary cap NHL.

If there was no cap, Holland could have retained almost all these players and we would always have a dominant team, but he doesn't, and he has adapted wonderfully to keeping Detroit in the state they are in in this salary cap NHL.

His small mistakes may add up, but I don't think his small mistakes still add up to what someone would grade as poorer asset management over the other 29 GMs in this league

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04-23-2010, 10:36 AM
  #67
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There were many exceptions. I never thought he wouldn't be playing in the NHL but ZB40 was the only one who really was far out enough to predict something like what happened this year. I re-read the 'we like Howard's potential' thread and the overall theme was 'he's not done, but i have no idea if he'll be a starter or backup'.

As for the math part, those mistakes that are being brought up are still quite small in nature. It's not like we're the NJ Devils.
Howard was completely written off by several (read: many) posters here, chief among them was HD. Gare Joyce chimed in that "he'd never be a franchise goalie and 5 scouts told me so". I refuted that. Sure, I didn't go as far out as ZB40, but nobody else went as far as I did. I compared him to Ryan freaking Miller. That's looking pretty good, no?

And you're right, we are not the NJ Devils. Not yet. If we keep making mistakes, that's where we'll end up.

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04-23-2010, 10:41 AM
  #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doublejack View Post
Howard was completely written off by several (read: many) posters here, chief among them was HD. Gare Joyce chimed in that "he'd never be a franchise goalie and 5 scouts told me so". I refuted that. Sure, I didn't go as far out as ZB40, but nobody else went as far as I did.
I hope you realize how small of a sample size that is.

Quote:
And you're right, we are not the NJ Devils. Not yet. If we keep making mistakes, that's where we'll end up.
Except the mistakes being brought up are inconsequential in nature. We're not signing Brian Rolston to a 5m/contract. We're not trading a bushel of assets for Kovalchuk. We're not letting our defense slip to the point of minimal talent.

The notion that 2 borderline contracts for lifetime Wings and waiving Quincey (a guy who you basically called a bum when it happened btw) is going to take the franchise out of dominance is hilarious.

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04-23-2010, 10:44 AM
  #69
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What did Leino do to deserve a guaranteed roster spot? Combine his $800K + JWil's $1.5m.....


Does make me believe Sammy was ready to move on though.
He played an entire season in the AHL even though he didn't want to, was one of the Griffins top players, played exceptional in his 13 game call up. Had 11 points in the 1st round of the playoffs for the Griffins which was 6 games.

I feel his problem was he knew he was guaranteed a spot and he became complacent.

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04-23-2010, 10:49 AM
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A) I had my doubts about Jimmy but felt he played well enough, after a terrible start, to continue earning more starts.
B) I don't think Jimmy is anywhere even near where his stats put him. Right now, I'd say he's an average NHL goalie.
C) A year ago, if you told me Jimmy was going to be an average NHL goalie, I;d have been happy with that.
D) I think Jimmy has room to get better with experience and become a good to very good NHL goalie. IF he works at it. But his development in the AHL wasn't exactly stellar, so maybe not.
This. I have a feeling Jimmy will come back down to Earth next season.

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04-23-2010, 10:56 AM
  #71
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He played an entire season in the AHL even though he didn't want to, was one of the Griffins top players, played exceptional in his 13 game call up. Had 11 points in the 1st round of the playoffs for the Griffins which was 6 games.

I feel his problem was he knew he was guaranteed a spot and he became complacent.
I agree with this assessment. Leino was a bust, but I don't have any problem at all with the way he was handled. Not only did he have a good AHL season (although he dropped off in the second half) and a great AHL playoffs, but he also had time with Detroit and was impressive when he got the opportunity

I know CB calls his first goal "lucky", and maybe it was, but he did show some talent last season. I expected much more out of him.

However, I'm not sure that complacency was the problem. If that were the case I would have expected an improvement once he was moved to Philly. It hasn't happened. Leino might just not be NHL caliber.

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04-23-2010, 11:03 AM
  #72
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Originally Posted by doublejack View Post
Howard was completely written off by several (read: many) posters here, chief among them was HD. Gare Joyce chimed in that "he'd never be a franchise goalie and 5 scouts told me so". I refuted that. Sure, I didn't go as far out as ZB40, but nobody else went as far as I did. I compared him to Ryan freaking Miller. That's looking pretty good, no?

And you're right, we are not the NJ Devils. Not yet. If we keep making mistakes, that's where we'll end up.
I'll make sure to refer you to Wings management.

They could use a guy like you.

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04-23-2010, 11:10 AM
  #73
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I hope you realize how small of a sample size that is.

Except the mistakes being brought up are inconsequential in nature. We're not signing Brian Rolston to a 5m/contract. We're not trading a bushel of assets for Kovalchuk. We're not letting our defense slip to the point of minimal talent.

The notion that 2 borderline contracts for lifetime Wings and waiving Quincey (a guy who you basically called a bum when it happened btw) is going to take the franchise out of dominance is hilarious.
Sorry, the Draper, Maltby, Chelios and Osgood contracts have not bee "inconsequential". Quincey is a direct casualty, Samuelsson is an arguable casualty, and overall depth has suffered.

Further down the line, the Zetterberg and Franzen contracts have the potential for very dire consequences, just as bad as Rolston's. So yeah, that's the path we're headed down, if we're not careful. The cap amplifies mistakes.

As far as Q, I readily admit I was wrong. Turns out the guy wasn't a bum. Of course, I didn't know that his back was hurt at the time he was waived.

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04-23-2010, 11:21 AM
  #74
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Sorry, the Draper, Maltby, Chelios and Osgood contracts have not bee "inconsequential". Quincey is a direct casualty, Samuelsson is an arguable casualty, and overall depth has suffered.
What is the grand total of all those contracts? I would say Chelios's contract has nothing to do with depth because the only guy that was lost was a bottom 4 defenseman who wasn't going to get PP time anyway.

Quote:
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Further down the line, the Zetterberg and Franzen contracts have the potential for very dire consequences, just as bad as Rolston's. So yeah, that's the path we're headed down, if we're not careful. The cap amplifies mistakes.
And they could potentially be bargains depending on how high the cap gets over the next few seasons.

Keyword: could

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As far as Q, I readily admit I was wrong. Turns out the guy wasn't a bum. Of course, I didn't know that his back was hurt at the time he was waived.
He may not have been a bum but he sure isn't some amazing grace that the Wings so desperately need right now. It's a minor issue and it amazes me how often he is brought up.

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04-23-2010, 11:25 AM
  #75
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I agree with this assessment. Leino was a bust, but I don't have any problem at all with the way he was handled. Not only did he have a good AHL season (although he dropped off in the second half) and a great AHL playoffs, but he also had time with Detroit and was impressive when he got the opportunity

I know CB calls his first goal "lucky", and maybe it was, but he did show some talent last season. I expected much more out of him.

However, I'm not sure that complacency was the problem. If that were the case I would have expected an improvement once he was moved to Philly. It hasn't happened. Leino might just not be NHL caliber.
True, the main reason for his downfall I think was his physicality. Last season he played a Holmstrom like role on the Wings. He drove to the net, screened goalies, went for the rebounds. This season he was way to soft. I am not really sure why he changed his game though.

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