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The Official Ilya Kovalchuk Thread

View Poll Results: Sign Ilya Kovalchuk?
YES! 107 45.92%
NO! 112 48.07%
Neutral/Indifferent 14 6.01%
Voters: 233. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
04-23-2010, 09:56 AM
  #76
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Originally Posted by Ian View Post
I'm saying that those two comparisons are awful in this situation.

Matt Cullen was never a good player to begin with, Plekanec is much better, so that comparison really doesn't work. Is your argument that because they stupidly expected Cullen to improve at 30 years old when his track record suggested he never would, so the Rangers shouldn't sign another center to play a top 6 role?

Gomez is not a bad player, it's just at 7.3 he's completely not worth it. Plekanec won't get 7.3, and really, if he gets under 4.5-5, that's a fair deal. That's pretty much the going rate for 60-70 point scorer, which is how much Gomez should have got. So if you're arguing that Sather shouldn't drastically overpay Plekanec, than yes I agree, but that's really the only comparison here. Not to mention, Plekanec's skill set fits this team much better than Gomez did when he came here.

Is Kovy really worth 8 mil plus? Absolutely not. If you're just going to harp on Sather overpaying FA's more than they're worth, might as well advocating signing no one.
That really is my point. Either get the proven 40-goal scorer who would have the greatest impact on this team in the regular season, or don't bother. You could go and trade for Patrick Sharp and get relatively the same production for less money and commitment, (as opposed to Plekanec.)

IMO, you pay elite money for elite talent. You get into cap trouble when you start over-paying the next level of talent.

And, if Gaborik is worth $7.5 million, Kovalchuk is certainly worth $8 million plus.

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04-23-2010, 10:04 AM
  #77
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Originally Posted by Vito Andolini View Post
What are you expecting out of Kovalchuk. If we sign him for 8-10M per for a long term deal, do you expect him to LEAD this team to a cup? Because if your answer is no, then we have no business even considering him. That's too much money to tie up into a player that you don't have faith in to out battle the Crosby's, Ovechkin's, etc. of the league when the games matter.

I am expecting him to continue to do what he's all of his career...score 40 plus goals. If he does that, and Gaborik does also, the Rangers will be a better next year and in the future.

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04-23-2010, 10:05 AM
  #78
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I don't have the energy to get involved here. I'll just say I don't think the market will bid up to him, but rather, he'll have to come down to the market, and, if he comes down far enough, at some point, it makes a lot of sense -- as SBOB put it, there's no question he can help this team, it is just a matter of the investment. But there are definitely good arguments on both sides here.

But, for those of you who don't want him, I honestly believe you should start preparing yourselves.

Generally speaking, with the exception of a new facility, what's the only way you can raise ticket prices following a non-playoff season? Bring in a superstar. Don't be shocked if that is the extent a major component of their thinking.


Last edited by Kind of Blue: 04-23-2010 at 10:28 AM.
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04-23-2010, 10:06 AM
  #79
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For me, if we sign him I won't be upset, but if we don't I won't be upset either

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04-23-2010, 10:10 AM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Kind of Blue View Post
I don't have the energy to get involved here. I'll just say I don't think the market will bid up to him, but rather, he'll have to come down to the market, and, if he comes down far enough, at some point, it makes a lot of sense -- as SBOB put it, there's no question he can help this team, it is just a matter of the investment. But there are definitely good arguments on both sides here.

But, for those of you who don't want him, I honestly believe you should start preparing yourselves.

Generally speaking, with the exception of a new facility, what's the only way you can raise ticket prices following a non-playoff season? Bring in a superstar. Don't be shocked if that is the extent of their thinking.
My gut tells me he ends up in LA. And, if that's the case, so be it. My worry is what happens if he doesn't sign here, because that is where the real damage will be done.

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04-23-2010, 10:17 AM
  #81
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Originally Posted by jas View Post
I am expecting him to continue to do what he's all of his career...score 40 plus goals. If he does that, and Gaborik does also, the Rangers will be a better next year and in the future.
But isn't that a problem? While he's had plenty of regular season success, he's yet to elevate his game when the games really count. If you give him 8 or 9M a year, that's a huge cap constraint. Where are you going to get the players that DO take this team to another level in the playoffs? If you have no faith in Kovalchuk to do it, then what's the point? Just to keep the wheels spinning? Seems like a waste of time to me.

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04-23-2010, 10:20 AM
  #82
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Originally Posted by Vito Andolini View Post
But isn't that a problem? While he's had plenty of regular season success, he's yet to elevate his game when the games really count. If you give him 8 or 9M a year, that's a huge cap constraint. Where are you going to get the players that DO take this team to another level in the playoffs? If you have no faith in Kovalchuk to do it, then what's the point? Just to keep the wheels spinning? Seems like a waste of time to me.
I'd rather pay $8-9 million for guaranteed production than $7 million for intangibles.

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04-23-2010, 10:21 AM
  #83
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Does anyone think that this playoff failure and the embarrassment that goes along with the failed guarantee do more to push Kovalchuk towards Russia? I personally think he wanted to go to Russia anyway, and this might have just sealed the deal.

That said, if he's looking to stay in the NHL, I'm not deterred by his playoff record so far. That Atlanta team had no chance against the Rangers in '07, so I'm willing to write that appearance off completely. I also happen to think he played pretty well for the Devils this year. Like others have stated, the failure of that team can be pinned on several other factors:

1. Lemaire
2. Defense (people were waiting for them to be exposed all season, it happened)
3. Elias (he looked flat out terrible)

I 100% agree with jas in his assessment of spending UFA dollars. There is nothing wrong with dropping loads of cash on an elite UFA. The problem arises when you overpay non-elite talent on the speculation that they are going to become elite (Gomez/Drury) or on formerly elite talent that have started to regress (Redden). Kovalchuk is neither of those things, and he will definitely produce enough to warrant whatever he ends up being paid.

Whether he becomes part of a Cup winning team is obviously a different story, but I have yet to see any of you in the anti-Kovalchuk camp pose a plan for how you think the Rangers can build a winner. You're right, it would absolutely be better to have elite centers like Crosby and Malkin forming the backbone of the team, but there aren't any players like that available now or in the forseeable future, so what do you do in the mean time?

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04-23-2010, 10:22 AM
  #84
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No on Kovalchuck at any cost. We don't need another Russian/Euro high scoring forward.

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Old
04-23-2010, 10:26 AM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vito Andolini View Post
But isn't that a problem? While he's had plenty of regular season success, he's yet to elevate his game when the games really count. If you give him 8 or 9M a year, that's a huge cap constraint. Where are you going to get the players that DO take this team to another level in the playoffs? If you have no faith in Kovalchuk to do it, then what's the point? Just to keep the wheels spinning? Seems like a waste of time to me.
Case in point. An argument against Kovalchuk will not be valid in my eyes when the person making it poses this question in their argument without answering it themselves.

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04-23-2010, 10:28 AM
  #86
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we gave gaby a ridiculous contract. so far its working out ok because he produced.

we give kovy a similar deal, hell produce too.

giving deals to those guys is not the same as giving stupid deals to

gomez
capt quaalude
redded

those were all support type players. not difference makers.

really, very little downside to getting kovy to sign here for say 7 years.

we get an impact forward for the next 4-5 years in his prime.

thats the price you pay for excellence.

and this whole not scoring in the playoffs thing. ill take my chances with him scoring plenty. its getting to the playoffs that matters first. right ?

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04-23-2010, 10:28 AM
  #87
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Originally Posted by Synergy27 View Post
Case in point. An argument against Kovalchuk will not be valid in my eyes when the person making it poses this question in their argument without answering it themselves.
Amen.

Last year: "Don't sign Gaborik, Kovalchuk will be an UFA next year!"

This year: "Don't sign Kovalchuk, Crosby/Malkin/Richards will be an UFA in ___ year(s)!"

I take solace in the fact that I supported the Gaborik signing, and it was the best UFA signing we've made in years.

EDIT: Seriously, for the love of god, Kovalchuk played 5 playoffs games this season. He scored 6 points (yes, one was an empty netter).

Kovalchuk's offense was not the problem. A defense that crumbled under any forecheck pressure, and no other offensive players deciding to show up was the problem.

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04-23-2010, 10:31 AM
  #88
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Who would have thought the "I want NO part of Kovalchuk" thread would turn into this?

Quick Stat:

I looked at each season starting in 06-07 (the first season post lockout was a bit skewed stats wise as well)

There have been 7, 50+ goal scorers in the NHL in this period. Up until this FA period, none of these players have gone to Free Agency. Kovalchuk will be the first, at age 27.

If you look at 40+ goal scorers in this period, there have been 24 players (which includes the 50+ scorers).

Only 3 have made it to free agency until this year. They are Gaborik, Hossa, and Jason Blake (Not sure what Selanne's situation was, but if he did in fact make it to FA status, he didnt change teams, so I left him out). This year, 2 will hit the market, in Kovalchuk and Marleau.

The obvious point being is that this is very rare. 40 goal scorers are tough to find, let alone 50.

I would also like to hear of a team that has 2 scorers like Gab and Kovalchuk, with a goaltender like lundqvist, that isn't contending each year.

The only ones that come to mind are Was, Pitt, SJ, Chi, and Van. I'd like to be in any of those team's situations right now, and I think Kovalchuk gets us there.

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04-23-2010, 10:32 AM
  #89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by azrok22 View Post
Amen.

Last year: "Don't sign Gaborik, Kovalchuk will be an UFA next year!"

This year: "Don't sign Kovalchuk, Crosby/Malkin/Richards will be an UFA in ___ year(s)!"

I take solace in the fact that I supported the Gaborik signing, and it was the best UFA signing we've made in years.
So did I...and I said the same thing last year...you pay big money to elite talent. You don't overspend on the next tier of players.

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04-23-2010, 10:33 AM
  #90
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You sign Kovalchuk when you already have guys in place who could play and Kovalchuk is the sole missing piece. Sort of like Chicago with Hossa. They already had the good young core (kane, towes, sharp, keith, seabrook, etc) and all they needed was another scorer, and there you have it they signed Hossa. We need a lot more than Kovalchuk. If we tie up more money in him for long term then we will have less money to sign our own guys when they command larger salaries.

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04-23-2010, 10:34 AM
  #91
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Originally Posted by Synergy27 View Post
Case in point. An argument against Kovalchuk will not be valid in my eyes when the person making it poses this question in their argument without answering it themselves.
Here's a wild idea...take a look around at the best teams in the league and see what they did.

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04-23-2010, 10:35 AM
  #92
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Originally Posted by Stugots View Post
You sign Kovalchuk when you already have guys in place who could play and Kovalchuk is the sole missing piece. Sort of like Chicago with Hossa. They already had the good young core (kane, towes, sharp, keith, seabrook, etc) and all they needed was another scorer, and there you have it they signed Hossa. We need a lot more than Kovalchuk. If we tie up more money in him for long term then we will have less money to sign our own guys when they command larger salaries.
No. You don't. When you have a team like that, you don't need Kovalchuk because you already have a core. Adding a superstar to a core rarely works (see Detroit w/ Hossa, see NJ w/ Kovalchuk).

You sign Kovalchuk to be part a core and build around your investment.

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04-23-2010, 10:37 AM
  #93
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Here's a wild idea...take a look around at the best teams in the league and see what they did.
Washington? Pittsburgh? Chicago? Ok, I guess the only solution is to tank for 5 season.

Unfortunately, even with tanking, you could just as easily end up as the Islanders, Thrashers, or Columbus.

Detroit is the exception, not the rule. We aren't going to tank, it's not even an option, just give that idea up.

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04-23-2010, 10:38 AM
  #94
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Ilya Kovalchuk this. Ilya Kovalchuk that. ENOUGH ALREADY!!!

He scores 40 plus goals playing in meaningless games for the Atlanta Thrashers. He wants the max and a long term contract. Turned down ridiculous money to stay in Atlanta. They traded him to New Jersey which was a fine team without him. Kovalchuk made zero impact for them. In fact,Atlanta was the same team without him. They were not making the playoffs with him. New Jersey would have won the division and lost in the first round without him too. The Flyers blew an 8 point lead with 2 weeks left in the season and made the playoffs on a marketing gimmick but they beat Kovalchuk's team in 5 games. Kovalchuk wants the big money which comes with responsibility.

In the Olympics,Kovalchuk was nowhere to be found. In the game against Canada,you could see Kovalchuk literally melt into the ice. That was how out of place he was.

In the playoffs against the Flyers,he scored an empty net goal and a 5 on 3 goal where Kimmo Timmonen decided to throw a hit on Zach Parise in the corner taking himself out of the play(Parise made a great play chipping the puck back to Kovalchuk),Blair Betts made his only mistake in the series by taking himself out of the play when he went down to block the shot and Kovalchuk made one of his individualistic moves to put the puck past Brian Boucher. Kovalchuk never gelled with any of the Jersey players. All of his moves are individual plays. Off the rush. Using his speed or one timing the puck. He doesn't how to play a team game and hasn't won a thing in his career. 1-8 in the playoffs. He isn't Crosby. Kovalchuk isn't worth 1/2 the money he wants this summer. Yeah I know Crosby isn't available but that doesn't mean the Rangers should sign an inferior player to the highest paid contract because he's available. That's the same warped logic responsible for the Rangers having 1 Cup in 70 years. Kovalchuk is NOT a difference maker. Any team attaching their fortunes to Kovalchuk has issues. Kovakchuk is SOOOO OVERRATED it isn't funny.

If 10 seasons of Glen Sather at the helm hasn't destroyed the franchise,then signing Kovalchuk for $8 million or $9 million or $10 million for a minimum of 5-6-7-8 years will serve as the final death knell of the New York Rangers.



well put. Kovalchuk is ridiculously talented, but he doesn't compliment anything in the league except his own stats....

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04-23-2010, 10:39 AM
  #95
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Originally Posted by azrok22 View Post
No. You don't. When you have a team like that, you don't need Kovalchuk (see Detroit w/ Hossa, see NJ w/ Kovalchuk).

You sign Kovalchuk to be part a core and build around your investment.

I was just going to say the same thing...Kovalchuk would have a greater impact on a team like the Rangers that has a clear need for scoring.

And, if the Hawks do not make it to the Cup Finals, it would make it negligible as to what impact Hossa has made, for at least this year.

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04-23-2010, 10:40 AM
  #96
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Ive been saying this for a while no. NO THANK YOU on Kovalchuk.

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04-23-2010, 10:41 AM
  #97
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well put. Kovalchuk is ridiculously talented, but he doesn't compliment anything in the league except his own stats....
This just in: goals (stats) are a necessary part of wins!

But who needs goals, we've got Chris Drury... and we can add Volchenkov.




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04-23-2010, 10:41 AM
  #98
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gaby
kovy
arty
dubi
cally
stall
mdz
hank

thats your core

build around that and go to battle

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04-23-2010, 10:48 AM
  #99
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I don't really know how much. When your second leading scorer puts up 84 points as supposed to 58, you're going to win games. I'm, not advocating getting him. I just think it's shortsighted and presumptuous to say he wouldn't help this team win games. Especially when the team lacks secondary scoring. Add Kovalchuk and his 41 goals and this team would have scored more goals than the Pens. This is hardly a perfect science or the strongest argument, but adding an elite offensive player is going to help win more games.
I didn't say he wouldn't help the team win games. i just dont think he would help the team win ENOUGH games. We can sit here all day and try to use fuzzy math to get Kovy to fit under the cap. Even if we waive Redden and use some of that money to sign Kovy the numbers still don't add up unless the Rangers are able to trade Rozsival without taking back any real money. Then we have to replace Rozsival with somebody making way less money and somebody that probably isn't as good. The Rangers need a balance and I don't think being a top heavy roster that is badly coached (and lets face it Torts is a terrible coach) will win that many more games.

At this point I'd rather the Rangers take a step backwards before trying to find another quick fix. Maybe, I'm wrong...

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04-23-2010, 10:50 AM
  #100
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It is mathematically possible to sign Kovalchuk for 10 mil a year, waive Redden, and have some space. You have to;

Sign Staal for about 3.5 mil
Sign Girardi for about 2.5 mil
Replace Gilroy with a ELC contract dman
Sign a Redden replacement for between 1.5 and 2 mil
Assume MZA is around a 1 mil deal.
Get a backup for no more than 750k

With all that, we come out to about 56.5 mil for a 20 man roster. Its plausible, I just dont think its likely. You depth chart comes out something like;

Edit; note, In this scenario Brashear and Bourque are dealt for a 2011 7th.

Kovalchuk-Christensen-Gaborik
Dubisnky-Anisimov-MZA
Avery-Drury-Callahan
Prust-Boyle-Weise

Staal-Rozsival
MDZ-Girardi
Morris?-Sanguinetti

Lundqvist
Auld?

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