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Which Big Salaried Forward Goes?

View Poll Results: If One of them has to go, who would you like it to be?
Dany Heatley, 28, $7.5 cap hit for 4 more years 11 7.64%
Joe Thornton, 29, $7.2 cap hit for 1 more year 3 2.08%
Patrick Marleau, 29, impending UFA 95 65.97%
Ryane Clowe, 26, $3.625 cap hit for 3 more years 3 2.08%
Joe Pavelski, 24, impending RFA 2 1.39%
Devin Setoguchi, 22, impending RFA 7 4.86%
None, go with the bottom of the barrell in goal and on the blueline 23 15.97%
Voters: 144. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
05-04-2010, 05:58 PM
  #101
Gilligans Island
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Originally Posted by param View Post
Yea...what he said

Lets be realistic. Everyone will agree that offense isn't something the Sharks really need to worry about, even if Marleau is gone. On the other hand you have Nabokov (who seems to sloping down a bit). We don't have a solid #2-3 Dman (you go from Boyle --> Vlasic --> Murray?). How bout dropping some cash on a guy like Zbynek Michalek or Dan Hamhuis. It seems like a logical step to not re-sign a forward who will earn at least 6 million, when the team has more pressing needs.
That's my view - one of our highest priorities is a 2/3 dman to take Blake's spot. Plus, I doubt Patty would sign for the salary that we'd have left for the 2/3 dman. Patty deserves to get $6m +/- 500K - unfortunately, that won't be from the Sharks, I bet.

In addition to Z. Michalek (bet he goes to Ottawa or re-signs w/ PHX) and Hamhuis, there's Kubina, Martin or Volchenkov. Next batch is Seidenberg, Talinder or Lydman.

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05-04-2010, 06:02 PM
  #102
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As said above, losing Marleau won't be good, but I think we need to accept that this Sharks team will probably be a high point in terms of talent. Much like Chicago, we have benefited from a bunch of underpriced talent this season and we will not have that next year. We will still have a good team next year though, and with Chicago dropping massively, I think we still have an above decent shot at ruling the west next season again. In fact, losing Marleau but getting a solid dman might make us even better during the playoffs, which is all that matters. He has not been that impressive on our team this post season so far, and hasn't been very good since the Calgary series period.

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05-04-2010, 06:14 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by param View Post
Yea...what he said

Lets be realistic. Everyone will agree that offense isn't something the Sharks really need to worry about, even if Marleau is gone. On the other hand you have Nabokov (who seems to sloping down a bit). We don't have a solid #2-3 Dman (you go from Boyle --> Vlasic --> Murray?). How bout dropping some cash on a guy like Zbynek Michalek or Dan Hamhuis. It seems like a logical step to not re-sign a forward who will earn at least 6 million, when the team has more pressing needs.
Plus, better defense often leads to more offense anyway.

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05-04-2010, 06:19 PM
  #104
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OK .... I've been drug into the conversation ... under protest (thats my fingers protesting ..the sound you hear, or it could be aliens taking over your mind. Not exactly sure).

I am really saddened about Marleau's play since the Olympics. He has to be hurt since we have not seen him skate at all. I was hoping this was the year he would shut me up but it appears he will once again not deliver on his elite ability. Who knows what it is? What is obvious even to someone casually watching the Sharks is Pavelski has hockey intelligence that makes up for skill deficiencies. Patty may simply lack the hockey intelligence to go with his skill set. Someone out there will want him for their first or second line centre and I am happy to see him leave. But either way - intelligence or bad luck with injury, he is a casualty as the vote indicates from this fan base and that is a very sad thing.

Nabby is the more intriguing candidate to change for me. I hate to mention it when we are in the middle of a series, but his puck handling skills are horrible. I might be inclined to see about getting Turco on a 2 year contract because he could both train the next greatest Shark goalie in the minors, and improve the defense with puck handing behind the net, as well as start the breakout. Both of those skills take pressure off the defense and that is what we need given the defense we will ice next year which I expect to be youngish.

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05-04-2010, 06:35 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by WineShark View Post
OK .... I've been drug into the conversation ... under protest (thats my fingers protesting ..the sound you hear, or it could be aliens taking over your mind. Not exactly sure).

I am really saddened about Marleau's play since the Olympics. He has to be hurt since we have not seen him skate at all. I was hoping this was the year he would shut me up but it appears he will once again not deliver on his elite ability. Who knows what it is? What is obvious even to someone casually watching the Sharks is Pavelski has hockey intelligence that makes up for skill deficiencies. Patty may simply lack the hockey intelligence to go with his skill set. Someone out there will want him for their first or second line centre and I am happy to see him leave. But either way - intelligence or bad luck with injury, he is a casualty as the vote indicates from this fan base and that is a very sad thing.

Nabby is the more intriguing candidate to change for me. I hate to mention it when we are in the middle of a series, but his puck handling skills are horrible. I might be inclined to see about getting Turco on a 2 year contract because he could both train the next greatest Shark goalie in the minors, and improve the defense with puck handing behind the net, as well as start the breakout. Both of those skills take pressure off the defense and that is what we need given the defense we will ice next year which I expect to be youngish.
turco...? comeon...He's not only overrated by his trapping, forechecking, shot blocking team, but add on the fact that he has been crap the past few seasons- only winning 22 games this season and last season he won 33 but had a horrid 89% saves and 2.80 GAA. Then factor in that he takes even more stupid risks that lead directly to goals against, and that he's even older than nabby(alright only by a month but I'm already getting nervous by nabby's age...), turco's injuries are only going to get more frequent at his age.

It's not like turco has even had more success in the playoffs than nabby either...Sure he was good in the sharks vs dallas series but his numbers have been nothing special since the lockout.

So to sum that up in two words:
**** turco

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05-04-2010, 07:37 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by dumpnchase View Post
If you think playing Couture more will weaken this team you need to watch more hockey. He is ready.

As for Marleau he's a 30-35 goal scorer with 1 or 2 40+ goal years in him, and he's used up one of those years. How do you know he won't mail it in and give us 19 goals? Think about it career year in a contract year? We should have traded him when he tanked under Ron Wilson. Also if we resign him he'll get a NMC/NTC what will we do with him when he tanks? Marleau is a good player only in someone else's shadow (Thornton's) and not much better than Seto or Pavs, I'll take those two over him any day.

With Marleau gone we'll lose 44 goals,
-44 - Marleau is gone
-34 - (44-10) - (+10) Seto gives us 30 goals (he can do more)
-23 - (34-11) - (+11) Couture plays the entire season and scores the same number as this season, just over an entire year
-19 - (23-4) - (+4) McGinn plays the entire season and scores the same number as this season, just over an entire year

Without making any changes we lose 19 goals, but keep in mind that Pavs, Clowe, Heatley, Thornton all scored less goals this year than expected / previous years AND this year was a career year for Marleau and you won't know if he'll score this many again ever.

If we lose 19 goals and Thornton, Heatley, Clowe, Pavs all are able to chip in 5 goals each (which is a very reasonable expectation if you look at their history / injury problems this year), you have more goals than this year.
And you give up 5-10 more goals over the year because of PK. Marleau is among the elite on PK. PK specialists at that level (and that isn't Malhotra) run about $2mil a year. Instead of hoping to have contributions from all angles, I leave it flat and add to that a giveup of 5 to 10 more which is very realistic just by numbers and that is if they add a forward in +-ON 4.00 range. Those forwards cost. Get a Malhotra type and that is ~15goals against/year.

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05-04-2010, 07:57 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
And you give up 5-10 more goals over the year because of PK. Marleau is among the elite on PK. PK specialists at that level (and that isn't Malhotra) run about $2mil a year. Instead of hoping to have contributions from all angles, I leave it flat and add to that a giveup of 5 to 10 more which is very realistic just by numbers and that is if they add a forward in +-ON 4.00 range. Those forwards cost. Get a Malhotra type and that is ~15goals against/year.
Do you support re-signing Patty? If so, for how much? And, what do you suggest we do w/ the other FAs?

I'd like to keep Patty - moreso before these playoffs started - but not at the expense of Seto, Pavs or Clowe...

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05-04-2010, 08:37 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by Gilligans Island View Post
Do you support re-signing Patty? If so, for how much? And, what do you suggest we do w/ the other FAs?

I'd like to keep Patty - moreso before these playoffs started - but not at the expense of Seto, Pavs or Clowe...
Yes, long, NMC, $5mil/year. I don't think he will re-sign.

Nabby and Blake walk or Blake takes ~1.5mil/year. I'd go cheap in goal, really cheap. I'd look at second tier on dmen, not guys like Volchenkov or Z, possibly Hamhuis. Find a way to unload Huskins. I'd look to go short and cheap on Seto to provide him with motivation as well as to save on cap space. That is a Patty-stays scenario which I don't think he will (even if DW wants to re-sign him now).

In the long-term, they have two contracts that will be boat anchors in their latter years, Boyle and Heatley. Boyle more than Heatley because Boyle's is flat, cap hit and salary are the same so no one will take him for the last year or two. Heatley's was frontloaded which might be easier to move to a low payroll team that wants real payroll below cap minimum. The other issue they have is Thornton who equates to about $5mil player in the post-season. What is he going to want? Marleau is insurance against that demand. On top of that I really don't trust Couture's upside. He has a big injury history, his lack of speed and size is very noticeable. I see the smarts and the quick stick, but the lack in other areas are going to give him a very tall hill to climb.

IMO, the Sharks have been going in the wrong direction on emphasis of speed. Unless they go super-possession, a la Detroit, that doesn't bode well. That super-possession comes from maintaining a roster where the familiarity is so high that turnovers are almost unheard of. Detroit isn't that fast, they do it with super-possession. Speed compensates for turnovers.

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05-04-2010, 08:44 PM
  #109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WineShark View Post
OK .... I've been drug into the conversation ... under protest (thats my fingers protesting ..the sound you hear, or it could be aliens taking over your mind. Not exactly sure).

I am really saddened about Marleau's play since the Olympics. He has to be hurt since we have not seen him skate at all. I was hoping this was the year he would shut me up but it appears he will once again not deliver on his elite ability. Who knows what it is? What is obvious even to someone casually watching the Sharks is Pavelski has hockey intelligence that makes up for skill deficiencies. Patty may simply lack the hockey intelligence to go with his skill set. Someone out there will want him for their first or second line centre and I am happy to see him leave. But either way - intelligence or bad luck with injury, he is a casualty as the vote indicates from this fan base and that is a very sad thing.
If Marleau was injured than he shouldn't have been playing when we were leading the west.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WineShark View Post
Nabby is the more intriguing candidate to change for me. I hate to mention it when we are in the middle of a series, but his puck handling skills are horrible. I might be inclined to see about getting Turco on a 2 year contract because he could both train the next greatest Shark goalie in the minors, and improve the defense with puck handing behind the net, as well as start the breakout. Both of those skills take pressure off the defense and that is what we need given the defense we will ice next year which I expect to be youngish.
Why would you want Turco?

We should try to go with:
- Niittymaki
- Hedberg
- Biron
or Nabby if he resigns for 1 year or cheap multi-year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
And you give up 5-10 more goals over the year because of PK. Marleau is among the elite on PK. PK specialists at that level (and that isn't Malhotra) run about $2mil a year. Instead of hoping to have contributions from all angles, I leave it flat and add to that a giveup of 5 to 10 more which is very realistic just by numbers and that is if they add a forward in +-ON 4.00 range. Those forwards cost. Get a Malhotra type and that is ~15goals against/year.
We allowed 49 powerplay goals and I don't believe that we'll allow 10% - 20% more goals because of Marleau, he's good but penalty killing is a unit not a one man show. Also who knows maybe DW will go after Veilleux again.

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05-04-2010, 09:28 PM
  #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dumpnchase View Post
If Marleau was injured than he shouldn't have been playing when we were leading the west.



Why would you want Turco?

We should try to go with:
- Niittymaki
- Hedberg
- Biron
or Nabby if he resigns for 1 year or cheap multi-year.



We allowed 49 powerplay goals and I don't believe that we'll allow 10% - 20% more goals because of Marleau, he's good but penalty killing is a unit not a one man show. Also who knows maybe DW will go after Veilleux again.
Did you see the difference in PK when they got Grier? It's like removing Grier and yes that is a 10-15% diff. Go to behindthenet and check PK stats. No its not one-man and I accounted for the difference by taking the difference on Patty and an average PKer. How did you arrive at your conclusions? I don't accept eyeball evaluations. Veilleux is just slightly better than Malhotra and that is not even average and these extraneous stats do tend to carry year-to-year and it shows up on teams as players switch (see Buffalo PK with Grier's return and his return to health).

Lower is better (net goals against/60min)
Patty 3.12
Pavs 3.52
Veilleux 6.67
Malhotra 7.85

4.00 is a premium PKer.

One further point. For a variety of reasons, don't think east on Marleau and I guarantee that it won't be TO. Think Socal or AZ. And then think about facing him 6 times a year or more. All three of those Pac Div teams should have money to spend as well as the need for a top forward (yes, even Phoenix).


Last edited by SJeasy: 05-04-2010 at 10:05 PM.
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05-04-2010, 10:11 PM
  #111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Did you see the difference in PK when they got Grier? It's like removing Grier and yes that is a 10-15% diff. Go to behindthenet and check PK stats. No its not one-man and I accounted for the difference by taking the difference on Patty and an average PKer. How did you arrive at your conclusions? I don't accept eyeball evaluations. Veilleux is just slightly better than Malhotra and that is not even average and these extraneous stats do tend to carry year-to-year and it shows up on teams as players switch (see Buffalo PK with Grier's return and his return to health).

Lower is better (net goals against/60min)
Patty 3.12
Pavs 3.52
Veilleux 6.67
Malhotra 7.85

4.00 is a premium PKer.
Stats like these (+/- type) for the most part in sports are irrelevant, their are too many variables.

JT is 2.35, Clowe was 2.54 last year, Pavs is 3.52, Heatley is 3.41, so the Sharks will be fine even without Patty. Veilleux was 3.52 last year with MIN he just struggled this year with TB (the entire TB team was >4.25), with a team like SJ he'll be fine. There is a reason he was offered a contract by DW.

If we lose him it'll be LA, nothing we can do there. We don't have money to sign him and he isn't going to take sub-$5mil.

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05-04-2010, 10:55 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by dumpnchase View Post
Stats like these (+/- type) for the most part in sports are irrelevant, their are too many variables.

JT is 2.35, Clowe was 2.54 last year, Pavs is 3.52, Heatley is 3.41, so the Sharks will be fine even without Patty. Veilleux was 3.52 last year with MIN he just struggled this year with TB (the entire TB team was >4.25), with a team like SJ he'll be fine. There is a reason he was offered a contract by DW.

If we lose him it'll be LA, nothing we can do there. We don't have money to sign him and he isn't going to take sub-$5mil.
Pulling out JT and Clowe detracts from your point, filter the minutes. One minute/game and up. And yes, I do look beyond stats like how JT is used. He is thrown on at the end when there is no faceoff which is a bugaboo on his PK because when JT loses, he loses clean. I do disagree with you because I see the number carry with the player more often that not. There are exceptions, but as an example, Malhotra is not one of them.

I wasn't addressing you on the where, but someone else speculated east earlier. Just wanted to get that in the open.

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05-04-2010, 10:57 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by dumpnchase View Post
Stats like these (+/- type) for the most part in sports are irrelevant, their are too many variables.

JT is 2.35, Clowe was 2.54 last year, Pavs is 3.52, Heatley is 3.41, so the Sharks will be fine even without Patty. Veilleux was 3.52 last year with MIN he just struggled this year with TB (the entire TB team was >4.25), with a team like SJ he'll be fine. There is a reason he was offered a contract by DW.

If we lose him it'll be LA, nothing we can do there. We don't have money to sign him and he isn't going to take sub-$5mil.

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05-04-2010, 11:15 PM
  #114
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Today, Bettman indicated that the cap will likely stay the same or be slightly up. Let's assume the same - $56.8m.

There is a very slight scenario where we could keep Marleau, Manny, Pavs, Seto, Clowe and Nichol, and also upgrade our top 4 D slightly. We'd have to trade Murray (for a pick or prospect) and Huskins (or stash him in Worcester) and let Nabby go (and be replaced w/ a cheaper G like Biron, Toskala or Ellis).

Below's team is a cap hit of $56.274m, leaving about $500K in cap space. Better than this year...

I like the team alot. Downgrade in goal but get an upgraded defense. Risks are:
- Blake not re-signing on the cheap
- Seto not going for the 1 year deal at $2.5m to prove his consistency
- of course, Patty not going for the long term, $5m cap friendly deal. Who knows where Patty's heads at...
- Can Moore fill Murray's stay-at-home, hard hitting dman role
- getting one of the lower-tier top 4 dman cited below

LW C RW
Dany Heatley $7.500 / Joe Thornton $7.200 / Patrick Marleau $5.000
Ryane Clowe $3.625 / Joe Pavelski $4.333 / Devin Setoguchi $2.500
Torrey Mitchell $1.367 / Logan Couture $0.815 / Manny Malhotra $1.750
Jamie McGinn $0.677 / Scott Nichol $1.000 / Brad Staubitz $0.500
Benn Ferreiro 0.635

Def (L) Def (R)
Mike Moore $0.513 / Dan Boyle $6.667
Marc-Edouard Vlasic $3.100 / #2 (Lydman, Tallinder, Seidenberg, Kubina or Hamhuis - 3 or 4 yr deal) $3.500
Rob Blake $1.500 / Jason Demers / $0.543
Jay Leach 0.500

(Ellis, Biron or Toskala - 1 or 2 yr deal) $2.500
Thomas Griess $0.550

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05-04-2010, 11:25 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
And you give up 5-10 more goals over the year because of PK. Marleau is among the elite on PK. PK specialists at that level (and that isn't Malhotra) run about $2mil a year. Instead of hoping to have contributions from all angles, I leave it flat and add to that a giveup of 5 to 10 more which is very realistic just by numbers and that is if they add a forward in +-ON 4.00 range. Those forwards cost. Get a Malhotra type and that is ~15goals against/year.
Marleau is not an elite pk'er he is a good pk'er on a great penalty killing team. Pavs, Mitchell, Nichol, and Manny are all good penalty killers too and all are arguably as good (or close) as Patty. Patty falls asleep and loses guys sometimes too. Your Marleau vs. Manny comparison also seems blinded by being a Marleau fanatic and not based on actually watching them kill penalties.

There are WAY too many factors to consider to use stats for judging penalty killers, like who they are on the ice with and against. Plus, you think Marleau makes good plays by accidentally running interference while someone else is scoring or tapping pucks in empty nets and that's just kind of ridiculous.

You are throwing way too many stats out there and then trying to support them with more detailed stats, but it's hockey and you can't really assess a player that accurately with stats.... it's easier to do it by watching film and having good hockey sense. Or going to games and seeing who is better at the details and team aspects of the game, like supporting the rush/play, positioning and movement..all things that Marleau has frequent issues with. There is more to hockey than skill, just watch that other Joe guy play. Everyone at the SJ Sharks boards said he couldn't be more than a 3rd liner when I commented on how I thought we had a great prospect, and you were probably one of those people

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05-04-2010, 11:28 PM
  #116
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Pulling out JT and Clowe detracts from your point, filter the minutes. One minute/game and up. And yes, I do look beyond stats like how JT is used. He is thrown on at the end when there is no faceoff which is a bugaboo on his PK because when JT loses, he loses clean. I do disagree with you because I see the number carry with the player more often that not. There are exceptions, but as an example, Malhotra is not one of them.

I wasn't addressing you on the where, but someone else speculated east earlier. Just wanted to get that in the open.
Do you have any thoughts on a PK specialist that could fill Patty's role there without breaking the bank (in the 1-2 mil range)?

Also, when would Seto (or even Pavs) go into UFA years? Does it seem reasonable that one or both of them would accept shorter length, cheaper contracts that did not touch their UFA years (ie. Promise of a big payoff).

Easy, am I fair in believing you want to keep Patty because of your belief in the importance of speed in the top-6 (I only skimmed through some of the posts way back)? I sort of feel the same way, but also can't bring myself to think it's a good idea to drop Nabby at this point. This all sort of brings back to my unhappiness with acquiring Heatley, since he doesn't bring that speed and his contract is such a behemoth. I'm glad I don't actually have to make these decisions (I presume there aren't any fast AHL guys who could play in the top-6 next year, right? Was Benn fast?).

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05-04-2010, 11:35 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by dwood16 View Post
Marleau is not an elite pk'er he is a good pk'er on a great penalty killing team. Pavs, Mitchell, Nichol, and Manny are all good penalty killers too and all are arguably as good (or close) as Patty. Patty falls asleep and loses guys sometimes too. Your Marleau vs. Manny comparison also seems blinded by being a Marleau fanatic and not based on actually watching them kill penalties.

There are WAY too many factors to consider to use stats for judging penalty killers, like who they are on the ice with and against. Plus, you think Marleau makes good plays by accidentally running interference while someone else is scoring or tapping pucks in empty nets and that's just kind of ridiculous.

You are throwing way too many stats out there and then trying to support them with more detailed stats, but it's hockey and you can't really assess a player that accurately with stats.... it's easier to do it by watching film and having good hockey sense. Or going to games and seeing who is better at the details and team aspects of the game, like supporting the rush/play, positioning and movement..all things that Marleau has frequent issues with. There is more to hockey than skill, just watch that other Joe guy play. Everyone at the SJ Sharks boards said he couldn't be more than a 3rd liner when I commented on how I thought we had a great prospect, and you were probably one of those people
Malhotra isn't close and that detracts from your argument because he misses on clears (his issue). And yes the with and against is factored in with the qualcomp which is also available. Being top 20 in PK two years running is very high up there. And I probably watch more hockey (~250 games this year) than anyone here sans Max. There is a reason that stats are used by teams and not just by fans. The stats take out the emotional factor. I can also find Patty's negatives the same way to take off the shades and the large ones are mainly on PP.

Just FYI, I was high on Pavs while he was still at UWisc.

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05-04-2010, 11:45 PM
  #118
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Malhotra isn't close and that detracts from your argument because he misses on clears (his issue). And yes the with and against is factored in with the qualcomp which is also available. Being top 20 in PK two years running is very high up there. And I probably watch more hockey (~250 games this year) than anyone here sans Max. There is a reason that stats are used by teams and not just by fans. The stats take out the emotional factor. I can also find Patty's negatives the same way to take off the shades and the large ones are mainly on PP.

Just FYI, I was high on Pavs while he was still at UWisc.
He does miss on clears once in a while and so does Pavs and Grier... and those are two of the best pk'ers in the league imo. Pavs and manny also get a lot of takeaways for odd man rushes while short handed... but I understand your argument and it has some merit, but I still disagree and Qualcomp is NOT an accurate enough assessment tool imo. It's useful but should be taken with a grain of salt when scouting guys.

I guess the only way we'll ever know is if the Sharks let Marleau walk.

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05-04-2010, 11:46 PM
  #119
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Originally Posted by Gilligans Island View Post
Today, Bettman indicated that the cap will likely stay the same or be slightly up. Let's assume the same - $56.8m.

There is a very slight scenario where we could keep Marleau, Manny, Pavs, Seto, Clowe and Nichol, and also upgrade our top 4 D slightly. We'd have to trade Murray (for a pick or prospect) and Huskins (or stash him in Worcester) and let Nabby go (and be replaced w/ a cheaper G like Biron, Toskala or Ellis).
1. Murray isn't going anywhere - he's a bargain @$2.5M/yr : Moore isn't close to being a Murray replacement
2. No matter how this season ends, Marleau and Nabby will be cap casualties and end up playing somewhere else unless DW trades Healty.
3. Pavelski will get a $4M to $4.5M contract - Seto will get $3M - unless a crazy Kevin Lowe type offer is tendered from the outside.

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05-04-2010, 11:55 PM
  #120
Gilligans Island
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Originally Posted by dburdick View Post
1. Murray isn't going anywhere - he's a bargain @$2.5M/yr : Moore isn't close to being a Murray replacement
2. No matter how this season ends, Marleau and Nabby will be cap casualties and end up playing somewhere else unless DW trades Healty.
3. Pavelski will get a $4M to $4.5M contract - Seto will get $3M - unless a crazy Kevin Lowe type offer is tendered from the outside.
I do love Murray but he's limited and not a true top 4. I disagree that $2.5m for him is a bargain. He took MacLaren's slot at $2.5 but isn't as good (when Maclaren wasn't so banged up).

If it comes down to keeping Patty (at a bargain price of $5m) vs. Murray, I'd choose Patty.

The slight increases you give to Pavs and Seto over what I speculate can be taken from the new goalie and the replacement top 4 dman.

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05-05-2010, 12:08 AM
  #121
dumpnchase
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Originally Posted by Gilligans Island View Post
I do love Murray but he's limited and not a true top 4. I disagree that $2.5m for him is a bargain. He took MacLaren's slot at $2.5 but isn't as good (when Maclaren wasn't so banged up).

If it comes down to keeping Patty (at a bargain price of $5m) vs. Murray, I'd choose Patty.

The slight increases you give to Pavs and Seto over what I speculate can be taken from the new goalie and the replacement top 4 dman.
Murray is a bargain, look around the league at what other d-men are getting. Niklas Kronwall who is a similar d-man (a bit better offensively and a bit worse physically) is getting $3.25 this year and $3mil cap hit on a 5 year deal.

McLaren was earning $2.5 way back when the salaries were lower that same contract would be around $3.5 today. Just look at what Stuart, Hannan, Regher are getting today compared to what they were getting a few years back and their playing level hasn't really changed that much.

Why would Marleau sign for $5mil when he was making $6+ this year? Even with a long term deal with salary spread out we could handicap ourselves with a dud come 35+ years of age. I like the JT 3 year just right contract that works for everyone. Play good get paid, otherwise find someplace else and also works for the player so they aren't stuck in a bad management type situation.

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05-05-2010, 12:11 AM
  #122
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Geez, I was on such a high from being up 3-0 on Detroit...until I read this thread

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05-05-2010, 12:21 AM
  #123
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Originally Posted by dumpnchase View Post
Murray is a bargain, look around the league at what other d-men are getting. Niklas Kronwall who is a similar d-man (a bit better offensively and a bit worse physically) is getting $3.25 this year and $3mil cap hit on a 5 year deal.

McLaren was earning $2.5 way back when the salaries were lower that same contract would be around $3.5 today. Just look at what Stuart, Hannan, Regher are getting today compared to what they were getting a few years back and their playing level hasn't really changed that much.

Why would Marleau sign for $5mil when he was making $6+ this year? Even with a long term deal with salary spread out we could handicap ourselves with a dud come 35+ years of age. I like the JT 3 year just right contract that works for everyone. Play good get paid, otherwise find someplace else and also works for the player so they aren't stuck in a bad management type situation.
I like Murray, I'd like to keep Murray, but he is no where close to those 4 dmen.

Marleau is probably the one player who'd sign a long-term, cap friendly deal. Perhaps this was more realistic before the Olympics...

Take a look at the cap friendly deals signed by other top flight players - Kane, Toews, Keith, Franzen, Zetterberg, Savard. It's a bit of the rage in this cap world.

That said, I'm not 100% sold on keeping Patty but I tried to find a way to keep him + upgrade the D.

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05-05-2010, 12:22 AM
  #124
dumpnchase
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Pulling out JT and Clowe detracts from your point, filter the minutes. One minute/game and up. And yes, I do look beyond stats like how JT is used. He is thrown on at the end when there is no faceoff which is a bugaboo on his PK because when JT loses, he loses clean. I do disagree with you because I see the number carry with the player more often that not. There are exceptions, but as an example, Malhotra is not one of them.

I wasn't addressing you on the where, but someone else speculated east earlier. Just wanted to get that in the open.
JT and Clowe make my point that they also look good if you go by +/- type stats, even though we all know that +/- type stats aren't always reflective of the type of player someone is. Also on a side note Marleau up until last year was a minus career player so doesn't that make him a bad player? He still is a minus playoff player.

Marleau is an asset to our PK but he can be replaced, just like anybody else without too much of a drop or increase in overall team performance. Although it would be nice to see DW add some speed to this team.

I am not advocating for Malhotra, don't know why you keep bringing him in. I would like to see Veilleux at sub-$1mil deal, with the way his season went he might even take a $700k type deal (like his current one).

We will have a choice come this summer Marleau, Nabby, Seto, Pavs, Murray, a good 2-3rd d-man.

The easiest guy to replace would be Marleau, as his salary vs. output is not worth it. If he takes a salary of less than $5mil great, but I think you would admit it isn't likely.

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05-05-2010, 12:24 AM
  #125
dumpnchase
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Originally Posted by Gilligans Island View Post
I like Murray, I'd like to keep Murray, but he is no where close to those 4 dmen.

Marleau is probably the one player who'd sign a long-term, cap friendly deal. Perhaps this was more realistic before the Olympics...

Take a look at the cap friendly deals signed by other top flight players - Kane, Toews, Keith, Franzen, Zetterberg, Savard. It's a bit of the rage in this cap world.

That said, I'm not 100% sold on keeping Patty but I tried to find a way to keep him + upgrade the D.
I think you misread my post I was just using Stuart, Hannan, Regher as a reference in increase in the NHL salary for your Murray vs. McLaren contract. How all of them are earning $1-$2mil more today than pre-salary cap era yet have the same value to their teams.

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