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The # 9 pick?

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06-04-2010, 12:29 AM
  #1
Joey13
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The # 9 pick?

The Bruins want to move up to the Top 10. In a very deep draft, would # 15, # 32 and a prospect get it done?

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06-04-2010, 12:35 AM
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TaLoN
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I'm not the GM, but it would surprise me if that offer wouldn't get it done. Obviously the prospect would need to be identified before anything would happen.

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06-04-2010, 12:38 AM
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North Metro Peewees
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Wow, coincidentally I just proposed on the trade rumors board a deal between the Wild and B's that had pick #9 and Cam Barker to the B's for Wideman, Wheeler and pick #15.

How about this for a counter offer?

Picks #9 and #39
James Sheppard

for

Blake Wheeler
picks #15 and #32

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06-04-2010, 12:44 AM
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TaLoN
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NM Squirts View Post
Wow, coincidentally I just proposed on the trade rumors board a deal between the Wild and B's that had pick #9 and Cam Barker to the B's for Wideman, Wheeler and pick #15.

How about this for a counter offer?

Picks #9 and #39
James Sheppard

for

Blake Wheeler
picks #15 and #32
YES YES YES YES YES and a thousand times YES!

It would be a dream to think someone would actually WANT Sheppard, let alone to think we could include him in a package that would bring a player like Wheeler here for just swapping 1st and 2nd round picks otherwise!

No way in hell would Boston go for that though...

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06-04-2010, 12:49 AM
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I'd rather see us stay at #9, but if offered #15, #32, and a decent prospect it would be hard to say no.

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06-04-2010, 12:58 AM
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Joey13
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I'd like to see how the cap hits match-up in both deals. While Wheeler is as soft as they come and I hope the B's move him - and slide Seguin into his cap hit - Shephard is basically considered the poster-boy for "bust." So, you need to sweeten the pot.

After seeing the Latandresse / Pouliot (sp? x2) and the Wolski / Mueller trades, maybe the change of scenery would do some of those guys some good?

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06-04-2010, 12:58 AM
  #7
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The difference between picks 9 and 15 is huge. It generally could mean the difference between a player who is an impact player and a marginal NHLer.

Therefore if someone wanted to move up that far in this draft they would need to include something substantial and a prospect (see Petr Kalus) to me wouldn't cut it. I mean ask yourself it the Wild want to move from #9 to #5 in a deal with the Isles they would likely need to include a guy like Schultz etc.

Besides we all know if we're dealing an underachieving athlete from MN to Boston he will eventually reach his potential all you need to do is look at what Big Poppy has done for the Sox among others. Sheppard would probably be a 25 goal scorer in a Bruins uniform.


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06-04-2010, 01:04 AM
  #8
TaLoN
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NM Squirts View Post
The difference between picks 9 and 15 is huge. It generally could mean the difference between a player who is an impact player and a marginal NHLer.

Therefore if someone wanted to move up that far in this draft they would need to include something substantial and a prospect (see Petr Kalus) to me wouldn't cut it. I mean ask yourself it the Wild want to move from #9 to #5 in a deal with the Isles they would likely need to include a guy like Schultz etc.
I think you need to re-evaluate the difference between pick 9 and 15. They are both high percentage first rounders, and this is actually considered a very deep draft making it that much higher percentage.

A.J. Thelen was a top 10 pick, Brent Burns was a #20 pick. You can't say something as simple as that's the difference between a impact player and a marginal NHL'er. That's just not the reality of the situation.

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06-04-2010, 01:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey13 View Post
I'd like to see how the cap hits match-up in both deals. While Wheeler is as soft as they come and I hope the B's move him - and slide Seguin into his cap hit - Shephard is basically considered the poster-boy for "bust." So, you need to sweeten the pot.

After seeing the Latandresse / Pouliot (sp? x2) and the Wolski / Mueller trades, maybe the change of scenery would do some of those guys some good?
I don't know. Sheppard barely makes the top five for Wild busts; let alone being the poster boy.

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06-04-2010, 01:13 AM
  #10
North Metro Peewees
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TaLoN View Post
I think you need to re-evaluate the difference between pick 9 and 15. They are both high percentage first rounders, and this is actually considered a very deep draft making it that much higher percentage.

A.J. Thelen was a top 10 pick, Brent Burns was a #20 pick. You can't say something as simple as that's the difference between a impact player and a marginal NHL'er. That's just not the reality of the situation.
If your ready to deal #9 for #15 and don't feel you would need maximum return then we should all be thankful your not the Wild GM. Certainly picking 9 doesn't guarantee an NHL star nor does it even guarantee the player will even be better it does increase the odds.

And by the way Thelen was not a top 10 pick he was I believe #12.

It's not that simple but you don't just give away positioning when your dealing from a strength and someone wants to move up.

I mean Wheeler was not that great this year and Sheppard is really primed for a change of scenery. Sheppard did after all have I believe 24 points as a 19 yr old so it really does appear had he progressed from there we wouldn't be having this conversation.

Just think about how hard it is for a guy who is still only 22; when he struggles a bit and at 21 and people started calling him a bust. I know at 22 I could barely walk and chew gum and would have been crushed had someone said to me "your a lost cause".


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06-04-2010, 01:15 AM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GopherState View Post
I don't know. Sheppard barely makes the top five for Wild busts; let alone being the poster boy.
Top 5 Wild busts...

1-A.J.Thelen
2-James Sheppard
3-Benoit Pouliot (though we got value out of him due to his flashes of skill)
4-Roman Voloshenko
5-Do we have anyone else that would even qualify?

Quote:
Originally Posted by NM Squirts View Post
If your ready to deal #9 for #15 and don't feel you would need maximum return then we should all be thankful your not the Wild GM. Certainly picking 9 doesn't guarantee an NHL star nor does it even guarantee the player will even be better it does increase the odds.
It's not only #9 for #15, it's #9 for #15, #32 and a prospect. BIG DIFFERENCE.

Chances of hitting on #9 are decent, but chances on hitting on either #15, #32, and/or the prospect? MUCH BETTER! And considering you still get #15, which %-wise is not that big of a drop historically on quality of player vs #9? Even better!

The drop historically from the top 5 picks to the next 5 is pretty large, but that drop levels off dramatically after that.


Last edited by TaLoN: 06-04-2010 at 01:21 AM.
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06-04-2010, 01:21 AM
  #12
GopherState
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I have it as:
1. Thelen (the bust for which all future Wild busts will be judged)
2. Pouliot (yes we got value out of him, but his draft position puts him at 2 over Sheppard)
T-3. Voloshenko (due to the high expectations and completely falling apart)
T-3. Sheppard (due to high expectations and completely falling apart)
5. Gillies' to lose (sorry Kyle Wanvig and Ondrej Fiala)

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06-04-2010, 01:25 AM
  #13
TaLoN
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GopherState View Post
I have it as:
1. Thelen
2. Pouliot (yes we got value out of him, but his draft position puts him at 2 over Sheppard)
T-3. Voloshenko (due to the high expectations and completely falling apart)
T-3. Sheppard (due to high expectations and completely falling apart)
5. Gillies' to lose (sorry Kyle Wanvig and Ondrej Fiala)
You already consider Gillies a bust?

I think his development is finally on track now that he's in Houston. He was brought in way too eary. It's too soon to know whether he's a bust or not.

As for why I consider Sheppard a bigger bust... the simple fact that he is likely going to walk away for absolutely zero. The only other 1st rounder the Wild made that did that was Thelen. That's a tough mark to copy.

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06-04-2010, 01:27 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TaLoN View Post
Top 5 Wild busts...

1-A.J.Thelen
2-James Sheppard
3-Benoit Pouliot (though we got value out of him due to his flashes of skill)
4-Roman Voloshenko
5-Do we have anyone else that would even qualify?


It's not only #9 for #15, it's #9 for #15, #32 and a prospect. BIG DIFFERENCE.

Chances of hitting on #9 are decent, but chances on hitting on either #15, #32, and/or the prospect? MUCH BETTER! And considering you still get #15, which %-wise is not that big of a drop historically on quality of player vs #9? Even better!

The drop historically from the top 5 picks to the next 5 is pretty large, but that drop levels off dramatically after that.
To me your much less likely to get a difference maker at 15 or 32 than you are at 9. As for a "prospect" can this one be a bit better than Petr Kalus who according to a Russo column a couple of years ago was the Bruins "can't miss prospect" that we got for Manny. I wouldn't trade 9 for 15 and 32 any more than the B's would trade #2 to someone for #5 and #20.

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Old
06-04-2010, 01:28 AM
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Joey13
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I just looked back at the last 10 or so drafts and the the # 9 and # 15 picks are surprisingly underwhelming. Actually not that much better than # 32 and # 45.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/index.html

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06-04-2010, 01:31 AM
  #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TaLoN View Post
You already consider Gillies a bust?

I think his development is finally on track now that he's in Houston. He was brought in way too eary. It's too soon to know whether he's a bust or not.

As for why I consider Sheppard a bigger bust... the simple fact that he is likely going to walk away for absolutely zero. The only other 1st rounder the Wild made that did that was Thelen. That's a tough mark to copy.
No, it's too early to consider Gillies a bust, but it is his spot to lose given what the Wild gave up for him and his development (which I blame Minnesota for as much as I do blame Colton). I think one could make a case for him next year if he regresses and/or stays in Houston, but at the moment it is solely his spot to lose.

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06-04-2010, 01:35 AM
  #17
TaLoN
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey13 View Post
I just looked back at the last 10 or so drafts and the the # 9 and # 15 picks are surprisingly underwhelming. Actually not that much better than # 32 and # 45.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/index.html
Ultimately, the difference between the picks truly depends on what one particlular GM rates one player vs another. The problem is, when you are drafting an 18yro, it's a crap shoot either way, which is why the offer you suggested looks so enticing, success by sheer number of chances.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GopherState View Post
No, it's too early to consider Gillies a bust, but it is his spot to lose given what the Wild gave up for him and his development (which I blame Minnesota for as much as I do blame Colton). I think one could make a case for him next year if he regresses and/or stays in Houston, but at the moment it is solely his spot to lose.
In that respect, Cuma has every bit the chance to take that spot that Gillies has, especially since his development hit a snag due to injury. Scandella is already rated as the higher prospect now, and he was picked later in the same draft.

IMO that would actually have Cuma in the lead position for that spot over Gillies, even though I don't think either player is close to the bust conversation ATM.

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06-04-2010, 01:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TaLoN View Post

It's not only #9 for #15, it's #9 for #15, #32 and a prospect. BIG DIFFERENCE.

Chances of hitting on #9 are decent, but chances on hitting on either #15, #32, and/or the prospect? MUCH BETTER! And considering you still get #15, which %-wise is not that big of a drop historically on quality of player vs #9? Even better!

The drop historically from the top 5 picks to the next 5 is pretty large, but that drop levels off dramatically after that.
Agreed. From seeing the Wild frequently (vs. the AVS) - I think blowing it is less likely in this draft with # 15 and # 32, and a possible prospect. After all, HF has the Wild as ranked # 30, so adding some solid depth might be more important than missing at # 9(where a talented guy, who is worth taking a chance on, may fall).

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06-04-2010, 01:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey13 View Post
Agreed. From seeing the Wild frequently (vs. the AVS) - I think blowing it is less likely in this draft with # 15 and # 32, and a possible prospect. After all, HF has the Wild as ranked # 30, so adding some solid depth might be more important than missing at # 9(where a talented guy, who is worth taking a chance on, may fall).
Add on top of that, the fact that in many drafts talented guys fall even further from time to time... such as in '03 when projected top 5 pick Zach Parise fell all the way to NJ at #17...

BTW - I can understand the "posterboy for the word 'bust'" when it comes to Sheppard, even though he's not the Wild's biggest bust. He's the most "visible" representation for the word 'bust' in the NHL since he's actually on an NHL roster but is still completely worthless.

He's the new version of Alexandre Daigle in the league. You always hear about how big of a bust he is, because he's still playing. Though in Sheppard's case, he could only dream of a career as good as Daigle had at this point.


Last edited by TaLoN: 06-04-2010 at 01:54 AM.
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06-04-2010, 02:10 AM
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How about Ondrej Fiala for top 5 busts?

He was a top 30 pick, but we didn't do our homework and his knees went out on him.

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06-04-2010, 09:40 AM
  #21
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I would rank them

1. Thelen
2. Sheppard
3. Pouliot
4. Gillies
5. Voloshenko
6. Cuma

Right now Gillies has the edge over Voloshenko and Cuma because he was a (marginally) higher draft pick but we wasted a 2nd rounder to get him. He should have been a 3rd round pick, not a 1st and 2nd.

Cuma still has the potential to be a top four defenseman in the league, and by all accounts has had excellent training camps the last couple years. We'll see how he does next year. You can't bust until you've had a shot. Gillies on the other hand will never be an impact player at the NHL level.

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06-04-2010, 11:14 AM
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Well San Jose gave up #13 and #44 to get to #9 for Logan Couture in 2007, so I guess 15 + 32 + ____ would be fair value. Depends really on what the Wild think of the players available at #9.

As for all-time Wild busts, I'd say:
1. Thelen - top-15 pick and declined signing.
2. Fiala - 2nd round pick and declined signing.
3. James Sheppard - babied for 3 years and has regressed.
4. Benoit Pouliot - was never really given a shot to succeed though.
5. Roman Voloshenko - went from an intriguing prospect to a nobody in one year.

HM: Kalus(if he counts), Kassian, Westblom.

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06-07-2010, 02:10 AM
  #23
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So, does Wheeler and # 15 get # 9?

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06-07-2010, 03:58 AM
  #24
TaLoN
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I would guess that it would.

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06-07-2010, 09:08 AM
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It's all about who is still there at #9 if lets say, Connolly is still there i don't see us trading down, But if there really isn't a solid pick left that you just can pass up for that deal you gotta take it.

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