What's to say that hasn't really be said. I don't try to make these as really even predictions more than guesses. I don't believe in "no way Team A lets Player X get past them," just as "there is no way Player Z is a 1st round pick, more like mid-second," or "this team already has Defenseman B and C, they don't need another one." It only takes one guy to like someone enough, and when you get later in the round there is too much volatility between trades and preferences for a certain player, it's a bit more plausible to look at trends that GMs have used in the past. You can never have enough of something in your prospect pool, but you can certainly have not enough of something and not know it for an entire year. One or two jump up that no one thought, and two or three drop what no one expected. If you're making a mock draft, you need to get creative. "This team NEEDS a defenseman." That's not really how it works. Unless someone is desperate, it's almost always BPA. The draft itself isn't simple, so neither should getting into the head of 30 NHL GMs. I worry a lot more about getting the player to the team I think would want him, more than his value within the draft.
2009: 5 correct picks, but nailing the top 3 is the easy part. Not much to speak of other than that. Kreider and Holland flipped teams from my mock. Although I was sort of right with Carolina going off the board a bit.
2008: I believe I had 7 players go in their their spot, or to their team, but generally, I thought trends held up pretty good even if it wasn't the right player. Then again, it's easy to get the top of the draft right.
2007: 6 of top 14 either selected by the teams, or in the spots taken. Detroit also took Joakim Andersson later in the draft, whom I had as a 1st round pick.
1edmontonOILERStaylorHALL
LW, Windsor (OHL) - CAN
It seems like the debate is separating itself, and while maybe not consensus, would be a shock if Hall isn't the #1 pick in the draft. Tough to go the other direction considering the credentials Hall has built for himself already.
2bostonBRUINStylerSEGUIN
C, Plymouth (OHL) - CAN
Again, this should be simple. The Bruins won't trade down. And Peter Chiarelli would like to stick it to Brian Burke. The real question will be what to set the over/under at for "number of times TSN camera pan to Brian Burke." I bet between the time Taylor Hall is picked and the next pick, it will be more than Peter Chiarelli.
3floridaPANTHERSerikGUDBRANSON
D, Kingston (OHL) - CAN
I guess this is where it gets hard, because there are three defensemen at the top, and Dale Tallon is going to blow the whole thing up. With now two of the first 15 picks, it leaves the Panthers to do some things, including trades. Since Tallon hasn't been on board for very long, it will be the scouts running this draft. Connolly is a very obvious choice here (Western Canada kid, etc.), but they're going to be a busy team. The Draft Board project we ran doesn't have Gudbranson as the top defenseman, but more people like him more.
4columbusBLUE JACKETScamFOWLER
D, Windsor (OHL) - USA
For now, I have to assume Columbus isn't trading the pick. Won't know really until the draft when their time has come. They sort of like doing the forward thing in the first round. They've done a few things that kind of haven't worked out, but I think the winning attitude Cam Fowler would bring in, especially as someone who could make the team out of training camp, it's a good move.
5new yorkISLANDERSbrettCONNOLLY
LW, Prince George (WHL) - CAN
Needing help in a lot of areas, Connolly seems to bring a bunch of those other things to the table to come in behind guys like Tavares, Okposo, Bailey and Co.
6tampa bayLIGHTNINGjeffSKINNER
C, Kitchener (OHL) - CAN
Wouldn't shock anyone to see someone who is going to jump up. Jeff Skinner is one name that keeps coming up. I think Steve Yzerman could see a lot of himself in him.
7carolinaHURRICANESbrandonGORMLEY
D, Moncton (QMJHL) - CAN
Carolina seems to make a mess of its draft year-to-year, but if the Top 6 shakes out that way (and I'm pretty sure it won't), then this would be somewhat simple.
8atlantaTHRASHERSninoNIEDERREITER
LW, Portland (WHL) - SUI
I really don't know what I expect Rick Dudley to do. In the past he likes big, soft, flakey Europeans. Nino is big, and he is a European. He would be a popular pick after being the star of the WJC's. Just have to pray and hope he doesn't mess this up.
9minnesotaWILDmikaelGRANLUND
C, HIFK Helsinki (SM-liiga) - FIN
I don't buy into the "Minnesota Player is Minnesotan" style of thought. If you start worrying about where players are from (unless they're Russian), and drafting from a specific lot (especially when it's as strict as Minnesotans), then your draft becomes a mess. Worry about that later in the draft. Besides, last year they finally did it and they traded him already. Granlund is at least one of the top 2 or 3 BPA at this point.
10new yorkRANGERSryanJOHANSEN
C, Portland (WHL) - CAN
It what may be Glen Sather's final draft as GM until he's removed from GM and given the assistant to the senior assistant of assistants (like other GMs who get fired without being fired), the Rangers have kept it reasonably local in recent drafts.
11dallasSTARSaustinWATSON
RW, Peterborough (OHL) - USA
I nailed Dallas' pick last year, thinking Joe Nieuwendyk would go with sort of a wise-guy pick, so it wouldn't shock me to see him do it again.
12anaheimDUCKSemersonETEM
C, Medicine Hat (WHL) - USA
Between Bob Murray and Brian Burke in recent years, they generally go with the guys who are under the radar a bit and aren't talked about as much. Won't hurt the Ducks either if he's from SoCal.
13phoenixCOYOTESderekFORBORT
D, U-18 NT (USHL) - USA
Which will TSN talk about more: Resurgence of the Coyotes, Olli Jokinen, or more updates on the IEH-Glendale saga?
14st. louisBLUESnickBJUGSTAD
C, Blaine (MN USHS) - USA
I thought I had a beat on the Blues in the past, but they have thrown me for loops. They haven't gone to the WHL, and they don't go to Russia early in the draft. Interestingly enough though, they do like to keep picking Minnesotans, as much as players who play in Sweden. Without many Swedes ranked high, I'll go the other way.
15floridaPANTHERSalexanderBURMISTOV
C, Barrie (OHL) - RUS
Now, their second first round pick, the Panthers could take a bit more of a chance. As with last year (I had Kulikov dropping to the Panthers), the Russians would be dropping and another allowed to fall right into their laps. Tallon represented a different way of drafting when he was in Chicago (not drafting Russians). Burmistrov would represent a compromise between "the Russian Factor" and playing in Canada as Kulikov did last year.
16ottawaSENATORSjackCAMPBELL
G, U-18 NT (USHL) - USA
The Senators, of only one real, legitimate goaltending prospect, may be apt to indulge. Campbell, who is now passing on Michigan to go to Windsor of the OHL, will have close tabs kept on him, and will likely do very well winning games.
17coloradoAVALANCHEmarkPYSYK
D, Edmonton (WHL) - CAN
Recent drafts suggest that the Avlanache rarely venture outside North America, and an even helping of Canadians and Americans.
18nashvillePREDATORSjonathanMERRILL
D, U-18 NT (USHL) - USA
Defense high in the draft is usually David Poile's bag.
19los angelesKINGSbeauBENNETT
RW, Penticton (BCHL) - USA
I wouldn't expect Lombardi to make a big move at the draft just to please people (although I'm sure the Ducks have there fans there as well, and may not want to be upstaged by rivals). It's hard to get a read on what Lombardi likes doing, and he doesn't really care much about what others think (such as reaching for Hickey, or flipping with Buffalo allowing them to take Tyler Myers). Bennett is going to Denver to play in college, but I bet the Kings get him out of there as soon as possible (Lombardi doesn't seem to like college players). He too, from SoCal. Bucking the trends on this one.
20pittsburghPENGUINSvladimirTARASENKO
RW, Novosibirsk (KHL) - RUS
I'll run with the Penguins taking on the Russian factor (of which they're familiar), and take the dropper (which they've done in the past). This would give them a chance to get an elite talent to play with Crosby and/or Malkin over time.
21detroitRED WINGStylerPITLICK
C, Minnesota State (WCHA) - USA
Silver = white
Detroit has shown a tendency to trade down, so this may be a bit of a reach. Pitlick, who is also leaving Minnesota State for the OHL, will increase his draft stock most likely by doing so. There is also not many Swedes this high for the Red Wings to draft.
22phoenixCOYOTESjohnMCFARLAND
C, Sudbury (OHL) - CAN
I think the HF Staff Mock Draft summed it up well when they said he is a worthwhile project. Already having had a 1st rounder, the reward may be handsome.
23buffaloSABRESquintonHOWDEN
LW, Moose Jaw (WHL) - CAN
Bigger, stronger has been a recent trend in Buffalo's drafts.
24chicagoBLACKHAWKScalvinPICKARD
G, Seattle (WHL) - CAN
With an extra first round pick now, Chicago could stand to get themselves another goaltender to develop. Doing this high in the draft would be a smart thing to do. I guess they also can't have these guys develop TOO quickly either.
25floridaPANTHERSalexPETROVIC
Solid defenseman from the WHL (whom I took for Florida in another mock draft in the 2nd round). Can't have enough defensemen.
26washingtonCAPITALSevgenyKUZNETSOV
C, Chelyabinsk Traktor (KHL) - RUS
I'm thinking that this is a spot where the Caps will just give this up and go after Tomas Kaberle, although I've been saying that for a couple years. If there is a team in this draft that should sell out and do it...it's the Capitals. But I can't mock draft that way, so I'm just going to give them the token Russian and move on.
27montrealCANADIENSjarredTINORDI
D, U-18 NT (USHL) - USA
The Habs have drafted one d-man in the past two years combined, so they'll pick up two or three more now. Mark's son is going the college route, which has been the trend.
28san joseSHARKSdylanMCILRATH
D, Red Deer (WHL) - CAN
Sharks can work out a project defensemen over the course of a few years. I don't think it sounds like he'll be quick to the NHL, and with the Sharks cap juggling, don't need him to.
29anaheimDUCKSjadenSCHWARTZ
C, Tri-City (USHL) - CAN
Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer will surely be the focus here.
30chicagoBLACKHAWKScalleJÄRNKOK
F, Brynas (SEL) - SWE
This is my attempt top get a Swede drafted in the first round. Somehow, it seems strange that the Cup-winning Blackhawks have two first round picks, and the runner-up Flyers probably don't even show up to the draft on Friday.
Pre-trade comments:
25vancouverCANUCKSdylanMCILRATH
Good chance Vancouver trades down here, I feel. Nice, big defenseman that the Canucks can work with. Probably is going to take some time as well to improve his skating. 
