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MLD 2010 DRAFT Part I

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Old
06-18-2010, 12:39 PM
  #151
seventieslord
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captain of a cup-winning team, playoff scoring leader and smythe winner. That's an unreal season. what about the rest of his career? I'm not sure I would take Toews in an MLD at all, let alone in a top-line role.

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06-18-2010, 12:42 PM
  #152
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
I've noticed in two straight MLDs now, you've made a point of nabbing the guys who were usual ATD staples who fell down to the MLD. Often the reason they fell down is because better players finally got more respect and pushed these guys down. You're not a fan of ATD canon but taking those guys earlier looks like resistance of the refining of the draft list and trying to maintain a relatively high draft position for them.
No I haven't. Don't mistake correlation with causation. I have made "no point of doing any such thing".

I have lists that are nine pages deep on my oversized steno notepad and I have spent hours going over them, weighing several factors.

Why not whine about the very real Demitra-Yashin-Richer weaknesses or the 19-21 year old 3-year career, one year wonder Toews. (edited: I see you just took objection to Toews, good on ya, helps restore my faith)

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06-18-2010, 12:50 PM
  #153
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This will require convincing
Because he already has a better resume than some players already selected even though he has only 3 years experience.

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06-18-2010, 12:55 PM
  #154
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No top 10 finishes in any category but games played? An all-rookie team, a Conn Smythe he really didn't deserve(Keith or Niemi deserved it more IMO), and one all-star game appearance on his resume? He didn't even lead the playoffs in scoring, a certain Philadelphia C/RW did, and he disappeared in the finals. He's no doubt a tremendous player and if this draft is 15 years from now he's going in the ATD, but we're looking only at what he has achieved, not what he can be.

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06-18-2010, 01:02 PM
  #155
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
...what ATD2010 3rd pairings would they be better than?
The ATD 2010 pairing of Jiri Bubla - Dave Langevin could be demoted to the minors or put in the number seven slot in favour of Jamie Macoun - Randy Gregg.

And ATD 2010 starters like Bill Hajt, Doug Barkley, Gary Bergman are by no means clearly better than Gregg or Macoun as ATD picks.

And I haven't even touched the 7th dmen drafted.

I draft players I believe DESERVE to be drafted. I don't just drop names like some drafters do, I at least make up short bios of relevant considerations in posting my pick, saving longer bios for later. And nor do I base my decisions on who is draft worthy based on past drafts. Hell, look at the long history of my drafting and you'll see I'm all over the map: picking guys never ever drafted before, picking guys who usually go in the MLDs, guys who usually have went in the ATDs.


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06-18-2010, 01:06 PM
  #156
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A guy like Toews really should be introduced on a MLD 4th line IMO. He has the intangibles and clutchness to be a good 4th liner, but I don't think he has the overall resume to really play more minutes than that.

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06-18-2010, 01:09 PM
  #157
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Originally Posted by BiLLY_ShOE1721 View Post
No top 10 finishes in any category but games played? An all-rookie team, a Conn Smythe he really didn't deserve(Keith or Niemi deserved it more IMO), and one all-star game appearance on his resume? He didn't even lead the playoffs in scoring, a certain Philadelphia C/RW did, and he disappeared in the finals.
He gets a career ending injury tomorrow slipping in his swimming pool and 50 years from now he'll be forgotten by most, and certainly we can indicate centers to be drafted IN THIS DRAFT who are more deserving, after they are drafted.

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A guy like Toews really should be introduced on a MLD 4th line IMO. He has the intangibles and clutchness to be a good 4th liner, but I don't think he has the overall resume to really play more minutes than that.
I agree! (Though when I look at the fourth line candidates available, he stands kinda low on the list in terms of intangibles. A marginal fourth liner in this draft, but somewhat effective at times in that role.)

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06-18-2010, 01:11 PM
  #158
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
A guy like Toews really should be introduced on a MLD 4th line IMO. He has the intangibles and clutchness to be a good 4th liner, but I don't think he has the overall resume to really play more minutes than that.
I agree with this. The difference between Keith and Toews is Keith is considered probably the best at his position whereas Toews is not a dominant player. I'd buy in the same role he had at the Olympics; a 3rd or 4th line center, where he could excel (just as he did at the Olympics), but I think we have to treat as being fairly weak offensively in the all-time context, which should eliminate him from being a candidate in the top -6

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06-18-2010, 01:15 PM
  #159
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I agree with this. The difference between Keith and Toews is Keith is considered probably the best at his position whereas Toews is not a dominant player. I'd buy in the same role he had at the Olympics; a 3rd or 4th line center, where he could excel (just as he did at the Olympics), but I think we have to treat as being fairly weak offensively in the all-time context, which should eliminate him from being a candidate in the top -6
Keith has also had 2 seasons as an elite player (in case anyone wasn't paying attention in 08-09, he was probably the 5th/6th best defenseman in the league), whereas Toews has only had 1.

Also, the general pool of defensemen in this MLD is unspectacular at best. When Pervukhin is probably the best defenseman in the MLD, you know that we did a good job of picking the best of the best in the ATD.

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06-18-2010, 01:26 PM
  #160
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Toews also doesn't qualify for the being active in 2010 category only having 222 games to his credit and 39 playoff games(don't know if we're counting these, I assume not).

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06-18-2010, 01:28 PM
  #161
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This one was agreed upon quickly by the mark and myself. The Huskies are pleased to select their starting goalie, Olaf Kolzig.


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06-18-2010, 01:39 PM
  #162
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This one was agreed upon quickly by the mark and myself. The Huskies are pleased to select their starting goalie, Olaf Kolzig.


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I actually discussed taking Kolzig with madarcand. Good pick.

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06-18-2010, 01:42 PM
  #163
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the cornwall royals are pleased to select...

yuri fedorov (d)

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Originally Posted by chidlovski
Yuri Fedorov was one of the finest Soviet blueliners of the 1970s. Being a slick skater and highly skilled technically, he was a very mobile two-way defenseman. His smooth and fast skating, great hockey intuition, reliable and clean style in his own zone and, of course, undeniable scoring touch in the offensive zone made him one of the most interesting and successful defensemen in the Soviet elite league.

Unlike most of the best Soviet defensemen of his era, Fedorov turned down many lucrative offers to play for the top hockey clubs that were mostly based in Moscow. Instead of joining mighty CSKA, Dynamo, Krylya Sovetov or Spartak, he became a franchise player of the Torpedo Gorky club. Torpedo played in the elite league but wasn't a serious contender for the top titles in Russia. Fedorov's loyalty to his Gorky club was one of the main reasons behind his limited appearances with the national team. Team USSR coaches prefered elite hockey talent from top hockey teams in Moscow.

The Summit 1974 was one of the few top international tournaments where Yury Fedorov was selected to play for Team USSR. He saw only a limited action in one game and wasn't a key player in the Series. Later on, he gained a reputation of a quality blueliner at the WCs in 1975 and 1979 and was one of the major players at the Challenge Cup in 1979.

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06-18-2010, 01:45 PM
  #164
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OMG... Don't forget an incredible Stanley Cup Finals run that tops any goalie in recent years!
Of course! I probably should have included that as it was one of the main influences on our final decision. It will definitely make for good ammo in the playoffs.

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06-18-2010, 02:18 PM
  #165
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Aw, why the hell not? The Kokudo Bunnies select C Barry Pederson. Pretty much the anti-raleh line, but there's some offensive punch to 'em:

John Ogrodnick - Barry Pederson - Real Cloutier

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06-18-2010, 02:21 PM
  #166
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Originally Posted by VanIslander View Post
The ATD 2010 pairing of Jiri Bubla - Dave Langevin could be demoted to the minors or put in the number seven slot in favour of Jamie Macoun - Randy Gregg.
I will definitely give you that one.


Quote:
And ATD 2010 starters like Bill Hajt, Doug Barkley, Gary Bergman are by no means clearly better than Gregg or Macoun as ATD picks.
Barkley, sure.

Bergman? He represented Canada at the Summit Series, and all-star voters saw fit to rate him a top-12 defenseman in the NHL five times (8th, 8th, 8th, 11th, 12th) - He was physical and often among the top-scoring blueliners (3rd, 4th, 8th, 9th)

Hajt? You yourself have commented on how unspectacularly steady he was (in fact, didn't you select him?) The guy's adjusted +/- is through the roof despite not having any offensive game. He had a massive impact on his team's goal differential when on the ice. Macoun and Gregg didn't post better +/- numbers than they "should" have, and they were both better offensively.

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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Keith has also had 2 seasons as an elite player (in case anyone wasn't paying attention in 08-09, he was probably the 5th/6th best defenseman in the league), whereas Toews has only had 1.
The year before I might have said he was top-10 too. He was definitely emerging.

Quote:
Also, the general pool of defensemen in this MLD is unspectacular at best. When Pervukhin is probably the best defenseman in the MLD, you know that we did a good job of picking the best of the best in the ATD.
We get better and better every time. It's really bothering me not being able to pick off a Hamby Shore, Robert Svehla, Goldie Prodgers, Glen Wesley, or Ron Stackhouse this time around.

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06-18-2010, 02:22 PM
  #167
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70slord is here and ON THE CLOCK... which means he'll pick in a couple of hours (since he's made a point to do so in the past )

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06-18-2010, 02:24 PM
  #168
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.....I just noticed Jimmy Roberts is actually already selected.

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06-18-2010, 02:31 PM
  #169
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.....I just noticed Jimmy Roberts is actually already selected.
Good catch. I had been surprised that he was still available.

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06-18-2010, 02:33 PM
  #170
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Hajt was the 6th dman on the Twins* because my co-GM HO really liked him (HO really likes Macoun btw and if he or I had put more effort into that draft - we both were busy that spring - we probably would have taken Macoun over Hajt). I respect Hajt, given I recall appreciating watching him play, but there are more significant picks.
*I've said on the "evolution of our teams" thread that that Twins team was pretty unsatisfying for both of us co-GMs.

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Macoun and Gregg didn't post better +/- numbers than they "should" have, and they were both better offensively.
Gregg has the 3rd highest career playoff +/- of any player in NHL history and that after a significantly loooong playoff career (I posted exact stats when I drafted him).

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06-18-2010, 02:36 PM
  #171
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We can all have a good laugh at how his skills eroded so relatively early, but D Wade Redden was one of the best defensemen in the NHL in the first half of the past decade. Finishing 5th, 9th, 10th, 12th, 12th in Norris voting and posting a very impressive adjusted +/-, Redden's solid play at both ends of the rink was a major factor in Ottawa's rise to the upper ecehelon of the NHL. I don't think any MLD defenseman has a better five-year peak than this.

It's not Redden's fault Sather gave him that kind of money and if I was him, I'd keep playing for it too. We should not downgrade our all-time opinion of him because of the past three seasons; it doesn't change what he accomplished prior to that. If you must, pretend his career ended at 30. Does that career look any worse than Barry Beck, Robert Svehla, Tomas Kaberle, Jay Bouwmeester, Barry Ashbee, Mike Green, Dan Boyle, Brad Maxwell, Al Iafrate, Keith Magnuson, Sandis Ozolinsh, Bill Barilko, or a handful of others with short NHL careers, or still in progress careers or steep declines at 30?

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06-18-2010, 02:42 PM
  #172
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
We get better and better every time. It's really bothering me not being able to pick off a Hamby Shore, Robert Svehla, Goldie Prodgers,...
Shore and Prodgers yeah, but Svehla? There are undrafted contemporaries of equal or greater significance. Not to mention guys from other eras. But you've been big on Svehla for some reason. I liked the guy, more than most actually, but in terms of all-time greats, meh. He shouldn't be drafted yet imo. History will forget him as it does many decent defensemen.

Quote:
We should not downgrade our all-time opinion of him because of the past three seasons; it doesn't change what he accomplished prior to that. If you must, pretend his career ended at 30. Does that career look any worse than Barry Beck, Robert Svehla, Tomas Kaberle, Jay Bouwmeester, Barry Ashbee, Mike Green, Dan Boyle, Brad Maxwell, Al Iafrate, Keith Magnuson, Sandis Ozolinsh, Bill Barilko, or a handful of others with short NHL careers, or still in progress careers or steep declines at 30?
The whole career is at least relevant except where AGING slowed a guy down or otherwise limited abilities. But indeed, a 5-year span is enough to base the lion's share of one's judgement, 80/20 you could say, extended peak to overall career. I agree that giving heaps of money to a very good players creates expectations that the player be better than he can be. RICHER and HOULE are two examples of pretty impressive careers that were plagued by overexpectations.


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06-18-2010, 02:47 PM
  #173
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Originally Posted by VanIslander View Post
Hajt was the 6th dman on the Twins* because my co-GM HO really liked him (HO really likes Macoun btw and if he or I had put more effort into that draft - we both were busy that spring - we probably would have taken Macoun over Hajt). I respect Hajt, given I recall appreciating watching him play, but there are more significant picks.
*I've said on the "evolution of our teams" thread that that Twins team was pretty unsatisfying for both of us co-GMs.
Hajt, along with Bergman, is what I'd call an "elite #5" - one of my trademarks is to always have a really strong top-4 on D. And then when I'm filling up 2nd/3rd lines and taking a coach I watch all the D-men get selected and inevitably there comes a time when Hajt and Bergman are at the top of my list and I always wish I could get them as #5s, but it never happens. (Jim Neilson, Glen Harmon, Jimmy Watson, Leo Reise Jr., Edward Ivanov, Carol Vadnais, Viktor Kuzkin, Pat Egan and Ted Harris fall into this category as well)


Quote:
Gregg has the 3rd highest career playoff +/- of any player in NHL history and that after a significantly loooong playoff career (I posted exact stats when I drafted him).
And that is to his credit, I agree. However:

- playoff +/- has been tracked since only 1983
- higher scoring in the 1980s made it much easier to come out high in the plus or minus
- could you really not have a high +/- playing for Edmonton from 1985-1990?
- where was he on their depth chart? 5th? I know for sure he was behind Lowe, Huddy, and Smith, and obviously Coffey when he was there. We see a lot of cases of mediocre players posting a deceptively high +/- on a good team by playing easy minutes against weaker opposition. This could have been the case with Gregg too.

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06-18-2010, 03:09 PM
  #174
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where was he on their depth chart? 5th? I know for sure he was behind Lowe, Huddy, and Smith, and obviously Coffey when he was there. We see a lot of cases of mediocre players posting a deceptively high +/- on a good team by playing easy minutes against weaker opposition. This could have been the case with Gregg too.
Well, since Coffey was my fav player growing up and Gretz my second fav, I guess I could comment on this. Sather used third pairing more than most if not all other teams in that era, with the Coffey and Huddy top pairing limited on defensive zone face-offs when leading. Gregg was integral to the Oilers first Stanley Cup, trailing only Coffey in dman playoff points, on the 2nd pairing and both special teams units. In the 2nd Cup he was behind Coffey and Huddy in +/- though he and Lowe were known as the penalty killing defensemen (don't have stats handy on that). Gregg trailed only Coffey in dman scoring in the 1st and 3rd Oiler cups! And Huddy was ahead of him in postseason scoring in only 1 of the 5 cups. Gregg was no mere passenger. Dang, I'll have to get some Oilers dynasty book references together. A nice main ATD bio is what is needed. Though looking at some guys drafted in the main draft, there are several that need justifying more than Gregg.

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06-18-2010, 03:50 PM
  #175
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I actually have a file at home that I can check that uses an algorithm based on the detailed GF/GA stats that exist back to 1967, to estimate players' icetime. These detailed stats don't exist for the playoffs but it's a reasonable assumption that the depth chart from the regular season would stay the same going into the playoffs.

(I can see Gregg outscored Huddy but that doesn't mean he was higher in the depth chart, you know this too)

My guess is he peaked at 3rd in icetime but was more often 4th-5th among regular defensemen. I don't know about making a career #3-5 defenseman a #1 guy, even in the MLD.

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