It all comes down to if Gags gets traded becayse regardless of how much we free up by trading Gags, Kovy wants more than that. Kovy's only options are going to be (1) taking less to play on a team that is trying to win now, (2) getting as much money as he can by signing with a team who has tons of space but isn't ready to try for a Cup (like the Islanders), or (3) going over the KHL. He's a very good regular season player, but he hasn't produced in the playoffs and just by putting him on a good team it doesn't mean he'll be happy/productive and the entire team won't suffer. Even if he's willing to get paid 5 mil a season, the Flyers still won't have enough cap space to sign everyone else or find a goalie.
If the purpose to trade a player like Gagne is to get cap space for a goalie/general cap relief, it makes sense. If the purpose is to sign a player like Ryan, it makes sense even if we find ourselves trying to cut more space (plus supports what Homer has been saying about Leighton being "our guy"). If the purpose is to sign a player like Kovy, it makes no sense because it just puts us in a worse spot than before unless the cap hit is very similar and we can still get under cap/make the signings or trades we need to make.
So no matter how nice it would be ideally to get Kovy and have a happy productive team, it just doesn't make sense - so watch for it to happen.
No, it still doesnt make sense to trade Gagne. They didnt need to trade him for cap space to sign a goalie.
Leighton = $1.5
Shelley = $1.1
That alone would have gotten Ellis or Mason.
If you want Turco or Nabokov (god i hope not), there was no need to trade for Meszaros, or now that you have, you move Carle for cap space. We had the best top 4 in the playoffs last year, there was no need to change that. Meszaros is an upgrade over Carle so that would make us even better. There is too much money tied up in the defense now.
No, it still doesnt make sense to trade Gagne. They didnt need to trade him for cap space to sign a goalie.
Leighton = $1.5
Shelley = $1.1
That alone would have gotten Ellis or Mason.
If you want Turco or Nabokov (god i hope not), there was no need to trade for Meszaros, or now that you have, you move Carle for cap space. We had the best top 4 in the playoffs last year, there was no need to change that. Meszaros is an upgrade over Carle so that would make us even better. There is too much money tied up in the defense now.
I have to respectfully disagree, Meszaros is not an upgrade over Carle.
I still feel like we are judging Homer on half a plan and we need to wait until at least next week to see where this is truly headed. Panotch has reported that unloading Gags' salary isn't for a goalie and I personally hope it is meant to find Richie a winger.
If that's the case, trading Gagne makes sense to me ultimately because I think it may be foolish to resign him next season. He's a pretty huge injury risk who will be leaving his prime. He'll be looking for term and money we can ill afford to allocate incorrectly. If I'm honest with myself, I can't imagine a scenario where Gagne stays with the team after this season unless a major pay cut is involved, one that he is unlikely to take. He certainly has value after his playoff performance, we might as well cash in on it before we part ways for nothing.
I have to respectfully disagree, Meszaros is not an upgrade over Carle.
And I have to respectfully disagree, Meszaros most certainly is an upgrade over Carle. Having watched Meszaros for a long, long time, I can tell you he has the offensive game that Carle has, but also has a much better defensive game than Carle. The man has shot blocking and hitting capability and adding him with either Pronger or Timonen means at the very least, 40 to 45 points per year. He's that good.
No, it still doesnt make sense to trade Gagne. They didnt need to trade him for cap space to sign a goalie.
Leighton = $1.5
Shelley = $1.1
That alone would have gotten Ellis or Mason.
If you want Turco or Nabokov (god i hope not), there was no need to trade for Meszaros, or now that you have, you move Carle for cap space. We had the best top 4 in the playoffs last year, there was no need to change that. Meszaros is an upgrade over Carle so that would make us even better. There is too much money tied up in the defense now.
We could always get another goalie and trade Boucher and that'll free up some cap space after we get rid of Boucher's contract which we would have to do if we sign another goalie.
We had the best top 4 in the playoffs yes, but also the worst 3rd pairing. Imagine getting a decent goalie like Turco, then trading Boucher.
Pronger/Carle
Timenon/Coburn
Meszaros/Odonnell
Turco/Leighton
Kovalchuk? I wouldn't want him on this team. We have enough good forwards here. We are just one decent right winger short to play with Carter, pending that we will resign Carcillo. I don't want a Briere or Giroux playing with Carter because that hinders their time with the puck. Carter needs the puck to be effective.
1. Carter has 1 more year at 5M, then what will he cost? Probably more than 5M.
Yeah, but he won't make more than 7, considering Ryan may well end up at 6 or more, the difference won't be extreme.
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2. Carter plays a position that the Flyers are deep at. Ryan plays a position the Flyers are weak at.
Briere was a -22 his only season here at C. Giroux was on pace for a -30 (that's a quantifiable stat) in his half season at C. We are not deep at center. Particularly, even if those guys were okay defensively, we wouldn't have a center who was more than 6 feet or weighed more than 200 lbs.
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3. Snakebitten, what is that? Can I say that Leighton is an elite goalie who was snakebitten in the SCF. Snakebitten just another, nicer way of saying not getting the job done.
If you don't think that luck exists in hockey, I don't know what to say. I mean, when goalies put up a .949 against us over a 17 game stretch, that's not "guys not trying hard enough" or whatever, that's just being really eff'n unlucky.
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Personally, I'm not trading Carter because we need him to be able to matchup defensively against the bigger centers around the league and going with Richards, Briere and Giroux down the middle is a little too small for my liking. But salary will favor Carter this year and then Ryan for the next 3-4 or however long he signs, and scoring production will probably be pretty similar.
Considering all the things that went wrong for Carter this year including injuries and he still only had 2 goals less than Ryan, I'm not totally inclined to agree with you there. I mean, Carter was at more than a 40 goal pace after we got Laviolette in here.
Yeah, but he won't make more than 7, considering Ryan may well end up at 6 or more, the difference won't be extreme.
It doesn't matter if Carter is making 1M more, it's still more. Don't use salary as an argument when Carter will be the one making more of it.
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Briere was a -22 his only season here at C. Giroux was on pace for a -30 (that's a quantifiable stat) in his half season at C. We are not deep at center. Particularly, even if those guys were okay defensively, we wouldn't have a center who was more than 6 feet or weighed more than 200 lbs.
+/- is the most useless stat there is. There are 5 guys on the ice and any one of them could be the reason why there is a goal scored. Briere was +17 one year, that doesn't make him a good defender. The year Briere was a -22 he scored a disproportional amount of his points on the PP so the minus number is really blown out of whack. The Flyers score more goals when Briere is out there than they give up, that's all that matters.
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If you don't think that luck exists in hockey, I don't know what to say. I mean, when goalies put up a .949 against us over a 17 game stretch, that's not "guys not trying hard enough" or whatever, that's just being really eff'n unlucky.
There is no such thing as luck. Luck is simply where opportunity meets preparation. Jeff Carter wasn't taking advantage of his opportunity. Nothing more.
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Considering all the things that went wrong for Carter this year including injuries and he still only had 2 goals less than Ryan, I'm not totally inclined to agree with you there. I mean, Carter was at more than a 40 goal pace after we got Laviolette in here.
Injuries are part of the game you can't write them away. And Jeff Carter was getting more ice time then Bobby Ryan. Ryan had a total of 1497 minutes on the ice last year with 232 minutes on the PP. Jeff Carter had a total of 1428 minutes on the ice last year with 229 minutes on the PP. They played virtually the same amount of time last year.
It doesn't matter if Carter is making 1M more, it's still more. Don't use salary as an argument when Carter will be the one making more of it.
Well, next year it will matter and considering we're already at or above the cap without even having a decent goaltender, I think it's a valid point that Carter is only making 5 mill this coming year.
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+/- is the most useless stat there is. There are 5 guys on the ice and any one of them could be the reason why there is a goal scored. Briere was +17 one year, that doesn't make him a good defender. The year Briere was a -22 he scored a disproportional amount of his points on the PP so the minus number is really blown out of whack. The Flyers score more goals when Briere is out there than they give up, that's all that matters.
Not really, Briere blew ass for us at ES in 07-08 which directly hurt the team. I don't see how you can throw a -22 out the window as not mattering, sorry, that's a crap argument. I mean, we don't need Briere on the PP right now, so what if he plays C again, finishes -22, and only has 15-20 PP points.
That's a very significant possibility....
Additionally, the year you cite where Briere finished +17, 6 Sabres forwards rated higher than him in +/- including Max Afinogenov, so that just further demonstrates that he's pretty crappy defensively at ES. I mean, he led the league in ES points in 06-07 I believe and finished at a +17 while Vanek was putting up a +47, so what does that tell you? Plus-minus is useless in a vacuum, but in the context of a team, it can be significant. For example, when I see Giroux throwing up a -15 over the last half of the season when most of the rest of the team was around even, that's a cause for concern.
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There is no such thing as luck. Luck is simply where opportunity meets preparation. Jeff Carter wasn't taking advantage of his opportunity. Nothing more.
...yes, there is. You need to be lucky to win the Cup every year. You don't think the Flyers were really ****ing lucky to avoid WSH and Pitt, either one of which would have waxed us? Sorry, but luck plays a very significant role in almost any sport.
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Injuries are part of the game you can't write them away. And Jeff Carter was getting more ice time then Bobby Ryan. Ryan had a total of 1497 minutes on the ice last year with 232 minutes on the PP. Jeff Carter had a total of 1428 minutes on the ice last year with 229 minutes on the PP. They played virtually the same amount of time last year.
Carter played 132 SH minutes. Ryan played 17 SH minutes. So basically, Ryan played the equivalent of 5-7 more games than Carter just at ES.
If you don't think his size has anything to do with him scoring 79 goals in the last two years, I don't know what to tell you.
Not to mention the fact that the chances of us going deep into the playoffs and not face Malkin, Staal, Crosby, Backstrom etc. all of whom poze serious size/strength mismatches to our other centers.
Also it would be nice to win the occasional face-off against Bergeron or Toews.
It's amazing how under-appreciated Carter is on our team. He's far and away our best even strength offensive threat, our best face-off guy, more than solid defensively, kills penalties, plays on the PP ........
Not to mention the fact that the chances of us going deep into the playoffs and not face Malkin, Staal, Crosby, Backstrom etc. all of whom poze serious size/strength mismatches to our other centers.
Also it would be nice to win the occasional face-off against Bergeron or Toews.
It's amazing how under-appreciated Carter is on our team. He's far and away our best even strength offensive threat, our best face-off guy, more than solid defensively, kills penalties, plays on the PP ........
It all goes back to his skating style. He's such a smooth skater that people automatically assume that he doesn't work nearly as hard as a guy like Richards who is a much choppier skater.
JVR is going to run into the same criticisms, we're already seeing that he's getting blamed for Giroux blowing ass defensively at C (nobody mentions of course that when JVR played on other lines, there were no defensive problems).
Not to mention the fact that the chances of us going deep into the playoffs and not face Malkin, Staal, Crosby, Backstrom etc. all of whom poze serious size/strength mismatches to our other centers.
Also it would be nice to win the occasional face-off against Bergeron or Toews.
It's amazing how under-appreciated Carter is on our team. He's far and away our best even strength offensive threat, our best face-off guy, more than solid defensively, kills penalties, plays on the PP ........
Well, next year it will matter and considering we're already at or above the cap without even having a decent goaltender, I think it's a valid point that Carter is only making 5 mill this coming year.
Leighton is a decent goalie. You can hate on him all you want, but he was really good for 40 or so games.
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Not really, Briere blew ass for us at ES in 07-08 which directly hurt the team. I don't see how you can throw a -22 out the window as not mattering, sorry, that's a crap argument. I mean, we don't need Briere on the PP right now, so what if he plays C again, finishes -22, and only has 15-20 PP points.
That's a very significant possibility....
Additionally, the year you cite where Briere finished +17, 6 Sabres forwards rated higher than him in +/- including Max Afinogenov, so that just further demonstrates that he's pretty crappy defensively at ES. I mean, he led the league in ES points in 06-07 I believe and finished at a +17 while Vanek was putting up a +47, so what does that tell you? Plus-minus is useless in a vacuum, but in the context of a team, it can be significant. For example, when I see Giroux throwing up a -15 over the last half of the season when most of the rest of the team was around even, that's a cause for concern.
Kimmo Timonen was a -2 last year. Matt Carle was a +19. Are you arguing that Matt Carle is a better defender then Kimmo Timonen. Again, +/- is the most useless stat to use for determining defensive prowess. There are 5 guys and a goalie on the ice and any one of them could be the reason why a goal goes in. I'm not saying that Briere is a great defender. Just please, don't use +/- as a tool to determine this.
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...yes, there is. You need to be lucky to win the Cup every year. You don't think the Flyers were really ****ing lucky to avoid WSH and Pitt, either one of which would have waxed us? Sorry, but luck plays a very significant role in almost any sport.
That's not luck. There's no such thing as luck. Luck is where opportunity meets preparation. You make your own "luck" if that's what you want to term it. In your example what happened last year is opportunity that the Flyers took advantage of. It had nothing to do with luck.
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Carter played 132 SH minutes. Ryan played 17 SH minutes. So basically, Ryan played the equivalent of 5-7 more games than Carter just at ES.
If you gave Jeff Carter another 6 games based on his per game averages last year he would have scored 36 goals and had 30 assists. How is that not similar production to Ryan who had 35 goals and 29 assists?
Leighton is a decent goalie. You can hate on him all you want, but he was really good for 40 or so games.
I posted a list of goaltenders in the last 2 years who played between 20-40 games and had a save percentage of above .910 who were journeymen.
There were 9 of them in the last 2 years alone and that doesn't include legit studs like Rask. I'm talking about Raycroft, Clemmensenn, Hedberg, etc. So let's not get all excited about a nothing achievement.
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Kimmo Timonen was a -2 last year. Matt Carle was a +19. Are you arguing that Matt Carle is a better defender then Kimmo Timonen. Again, +/- is the most useless stat to use for determining defensive prowess. There are 5 guys and a goalie on the ice and any one of them could be the reason why a goal goes in. I'm not saying that Briere is a great defender. Just please, don't use +/- as a tool to determine this.
I mean, do you want to break out other tools? In 07-08. First of all, Briere's rating compared to the rest of the team was a -1.27. Next worst was Kappy at -.96 and everyone else who played at least 50 games for us was positive.
Second, his GFON/60 in 07-08 was a paltry 2.13 compared to a GFOFF/60 of 2.35 (we blew ass at ES that year in general).
Now compare to 09-10 when Briere was playing RW. Rating compared to the team was .44, second highest on the team actually behind Carcillo (who basically rode the Richards-Gagne line to that rating when they were hot and plus, that 4th line kicked ass early in the season).
His GFON/60 was also 2.84 (highest on the team among forwards) versus a GFOFF/60 of 2.08. So by every statistical measure (plus my own eyes), Briere's performance was much, much better when he was at RW. Sure he had a 20 game hot streak in the playoffs, but so did Fernado Pisani.
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That's not luck. There's no such thing as luck. Luck is where opportunity meets preparation. You make your own "luck" if that's what you want to term it. In your example what happened last year is opportunity that the Flyers took advantage of. It had nothing to do with luck.
If you don't want to believe in luck, fine, neither one of us is going to convince the other.
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If you gave Jeff Carter another 6 games based on his per game averages last year he would have scored 36 goals and had 30 assists. How is that not similar production to Ryan who had 35 goals and 29 assists?
The point is that even though Carter had the ********* season since he's had since 06-07, he still performed at about Ryan's offensive production levels. Plus, he plays a more important position, he plays PK, he wins FOs, and he's solid defensively. We know that Carter's ceiling is a 45 goal, PPG player.
We have much less idea what Ryan's ceiling is, maybe it's a 35 goal, 65 point player.
I mean, my original point was that Carter is a more valuable asset than Ryan and I stick by that. Carter had a crappy season where he was plagued by a horrible coach, bad luck, and a really ****** linemate (Hartnell) and he still equaled Ryan's production. What happens when Carter gets in an ideal situation like 08-09?
I posted a list of goaltenders in the last 2 years who played between 20-40 games and had a save percentage of above .910 who were journeymen.
There were 9 of them in the last 2 years alone and that doesn't include legit studs like Rask. I'm talking about Raycroft, Clemmensenn, Hedberg, etc. So let's not get all excited about a nothing achievement.
I don't have your list. But how many of those guys actually turned that regular season success into post season success? Raycroft, Clemmensen, Hedberg all have 1 playoff series win among them.
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I mean, do you want to break out other tools? In 07-08. First of all, Briere's rating compared to the rest of the team was a -1.27. Next worst was Kappy at -.96 and everyone else who played at least 50 games for us was positive.
Second, his GFON/60 in 07-08 was a paltry 2.13 compared to a GFOFF/60 of 2.35 (we blew ass at ES that year in general).
Now compare to 09-10 when Briere was playing RW. Rating compared to the team was .44, second highest on the team actually behind Carcillo (who basically rode the Richards-Gagne line to that rating when they were hot and plus, that 4th line kicked ass early in the season).
His GFON/60 was also 2.84 (highest on the team among forwards) versus a GFOFF/60 of 2.08. So by every statistical measure (plus my own eyes), Briere's performance was much, much better when he was at RW. Sure he had a 20 game hot streak in the playoffs, but so did Fernado Pisani.
No one is saying Briere is good defensively, just don't use +/- is a useless stat. The Flyers would be fine with Briere at center.
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If you don't want to believe in luck, fine, neither one of us is going to convince the other.
I don't believe in luck.
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The point is that even though Carter had the ********* season since he's had since 06-07, he still performed at about Ryan's offensive production levels. Plus, he plays a more important position, he plays PK, he wins FOs, and he's solid defensively. We know that Carter's ceiling is a 45 goal, PPG player.
We have much less idea what Ryan's ceiling is, maybe it's a 35 goal, 65 point player.
I mean, my original point was that Carter is a more valuable asset than Ryan and I stick by that. Carter had a crappy season where he was plagued by a horrible coach, bad luck, and a really ****** linemate (Hartnell) and he still equaled Ryan's production. What happens when Carter gets in an ideal situation like 08-09?
Maybe 08/09 is the outlier for Carter. Maybe just, maybe, Carter is a 65 point player who happened to have a good year in 08/09 and this year he simply regressed to his norm.
Either way, I never said Ryan was better then Carter or that I would trade Carter. I simply said, their production would be similar. Which it would.
I don't have your list. But how many of those guys actually turned that regular season success into post season success? Raycroft, Clemmensen, Hedberg all have 1 playoff series win among them.
I don't want to say PO success is 'meaningless', but I put very little stock in it particularly considering Leighton played 7 good games against the 25th and 30th ranked offenses in the NHL and then got lit up by the Blackhawks.
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No one is saying Briere is good defensively, just don't use +/- is a useless stat. The Flyers would be fine with Briere at center.
Wait, so I just posted empirical evidence that Briere was terrible defensively at C in Buffalo, horrible defensively and offensively at C here in 07-08, vastly improved here when he played on the wing, and you say he'll be fine at C.
Based on what? A 20 game PO run?
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Maybe 08/09 is the outlier for Carter. Maybe just, maybe, Carter is a 65 point player who happened to have a good year in 08/09 and this year he simply regressed to his norm.
Either way, I never said Ryan was better then Carter or that I would trade Carter. I simply said, their production would be similar. Which it would.
Don't buy that at all. Dude had a 40 goal pace under Laviolette and was playing with a piano on his LW. Plus, his shooting percentage combined in 07-08 and 08-09 was 12.4%. In 09-10, it was 10.3%. If his shooting percentage in 09-10 was 12.4% like the average was the previous 2 years, he would have scored 40 goals.
He'll be fine given a summer to rest and recuperate and a decent coach.
I like Briere, but with him at center in Pittsburgh do you want him out on a defensive draw against Crosby and Malkin when they can "load up"against him?
I don't want to say PO success is 'meaningless', but I put very little stock in it particularly considering Leighton played 7 good games against the 25th and 30th ranked offenses in the NHL and then got lit up by the Blackhawks.
Not buying your rationale. Montreal had no problems scoring against Washington and Pittsburgh. And Boston had no problems scoring against Buffalo. But then Leighton does well against them and all of sudden they couldn't score a goal on a pee wee team. Give the guys some credit.
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Wait, so I just posted empirical evidence that Briere was terrible defensively at C in Buffalo, horrible defensively and offensively at C here in 07-08, vastly improved here when he played on the wing, and you say he'll be fine at C.
Based on what? A 20 game PO run?
Yes. It was the only time he's played center under Laviolette. He got better under the system at center as the playoffs went along.
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Don't buy that at all. Dude had a 40 goal pace under Laviolette and was playing with a piano on his LW. Plus, his shooting percentage combined in 07-08 and 08-09 was 12.4%. In 09-10, it was 10.3%. If his shooting percentage in 09-10 was 12.4% like the average was the previous 2 years, he would have scored 40 goals.
He'll be fine given a summer to rest and recuperate and a decent coach.
The wonderful misuse of numbers.
Carter's shooting percentage in
07/08: 11.2%
08/09: 13.5%
09/10: 10.3%
Carter's career shooting percentage is 10.9%. As of the first 5 years of his career, 08/09 is the outlier and you should expect a shooting percentage of around 10 or 11 percent. Not the 13.5% he had in 08/09.
Originally Posted by FlyHigh
I posted a list of goaltenders in the last 2 years who played between 20-40 games and had a save percentage of above .910 who were journeymen.
There were 9 of them in the last 2 years alone and that doesn't include legit studs like Rask. I'm talking about Raycroft, Clemmensenn, Hedberg, etc. So let's not get all excited about a nothing achievement
If this is the case then what's the sense in getting another mediocre goalie. If the goalie is not elite - and I mean top 5, because their aren't that many of these animals, then what does it matter if it is Leighton, Turco, Nabokov (not convinced he is elite), Mason, Ellis, any of them.
How many elite are there... Brodeur, Miller, Luongo who else? Rask? Halak? S. Mason? Not yet.
If everyone is so similar in save percentage, then doesn't it make more sense to load up on defense and get 6 really good players together and 1 animal up front to protect your 7 scorers? Why spend money on goalies? There does not seem to be much of a difference unless they are truly elite.
The best option is you trade for an unknown or you develop them for yourself. Flyers have always done best when they have developed the goalie, not used a retread. I like the idea of trading for a relative unknown or trading with Dallas to get Campbell a whole lot better than twittering about how we didn't get Turco and Nabokov or Ellis. To me they are all relatively the same as Leighton.
