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Los Angeles [Future] Cap Issues... Their isn't any.

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Old
07-19-2010, 07:40 AM
  #51
AndyPipkin
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Originally Posted by Retail1LO View Post
Your talent is enviable to say the least. But here's what's going to happen if everyone pans out. These guys are all going to come aboard at roughly the same time. If they hit their potential (Schenn, Bernier, Hickey, Voinov, Teubert, etc.), they're likely all going to command raises within a year or so of one another. This will be in conjunction to your core (Kopitar, Brown, Simmonds, Frolov, Kovalchuk-if he's in the equation, Handzus, Doughty, and Johnson) already playing with heightened contracts due to their prior level of play.

The gist is, when you have a team that is SO blessed with talent....it's conceivable to have 3rd and 4th line players with 1st and 2nd line talent. They're going to want to get paid accordingly, and you'll simply have to choose who you want to keep, and who has to go. There just won't be enough ice time or money to go around.

You will find however, not all is bleak. When you go to trade these guys, there's going to be a market for it. And your return should be really decent. We did well moving our assets too. Any immediate loss of talent will be replaced by the benefit of being able to restock the prospect cupboard.

There's a balance to be had...and it takes a lot of good fortune and superior management to achieve it.
Quoted for truth.

Great post

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Old
07-19-2010, 07:43 AM
  #52
Frankie Spankie
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Originally Posted by Chad29Johnson View Post
too early to be concerned...plus who knows the cap could continue to increases every year
This, every single season now the cap has increased. I really wouldn't be surprised if it continued.

And I'm sure Doughty will be signed to a Keith like contract that will give him a more than reasonable cap hit over pretty much the rest of his career.

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07-19-2010, 08:12 AM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Retail1LO View Post
Your talent is enviable to say the least. But here's what's going to happen if everyone pans out. These guys are all going to come aboard at roughly the same time. If they hit their potential (Schenn, Bernier, Hickey, Voinov, Teubert, etc.), they're likely all going to command raises within a year or so of one another. This will be in conjunction to your core (Kopitar, Brown, Simmonds, Frolov, Kovalchuk-if he's in the equation, Handzus, Doughty, and Johnson) already playing with heightened contracts due to their prior level of play.

The gist is, when you have a team that is SO blessed with talent....it's conceivable to have 3rd and 4th line players with 1st and 2nd line talent. They're going to want to get paid accordingly, and you'll simply have to choose who you want to keep, and who has to go. There just won't be enough ice time or money to go around.

You will find however, not all is bleak. When you go to trade these guys, there's going to be a market for it. And your return should be really decent. We did well moving our assets too. Any immediate loss of talent will be replaced by the benefit of being able to restock the prospect cupboard.

There's a balance to be had...and it takes a lot of good fortune and superior management to achieve it.
I know at some point they're gonna hit a wall, but they'll choose who to keep or lose, I dont expect LA to have an entire team full of top 6 forwards top 3 D-Man but at least they'll keep the core they want if they can avoid mistakes. <<-- Thats probably the reason why Kovalchuk isnt a King yet and some major players will be to sign in 2011 and 2012. (Dougthy, Johnson, Simmonds need a new contract )

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Old
07-19-2010, 09:21 AM
  #54
Retail1LO
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Honestly, if I'm the Kings, I don't feel the need to sign Kovalchuk if I can't get him for $1M more than what Hossa signed in Chicago for. LA's going to be a contender sooner rather than later. They have a chance to be one for a long time (along with the likes of Chicago, Edmonton, St. Louis), because their so stacked with young talent, it's ridiculous. I also wouldn't be signing him for a marathon contract, regardless of the price point he signed at. With the kind of talent you guys have waiting in the wings, you need the flexibility to bring them along as they warrant, and give them the raises they'll need to keep them on board.

Hindsight is 20/20. The Hawks couldn't have forseen that pretty much every prospect that came through their pipeline would land on the NHL roster and not only pan out, but contribute mightily. It's not guaranteed to happen with the Kings...but it could. I think any free agents brought on board have to have either really good cap hits, or rather short terms. Either one allows for maximum roster maneuverability.

Oh yeah...and teams have GOT to stop handing out NMC/NTC clauses unless a player is willing to sign for significantly less in order to secure one.

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Old
07-19-2010, 10:25 AM
  #55
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Originally Posted by s h a n Y e View Post
(...) Now you're dealing with 9 or 10 spots to fill with 16.5 mill.

10 players on your team making 1.65 mill does not work out. Your entire 3rd line, entire 4th line and your complete 3rd pairing can not consist of plugs. (...)

If I were a Kings fan I wouldn't worry, but what do you think hfb?
Pretty sure spots 13-22 on a 22-man roster make less than 16.5 million combined on most teams.

Anyway, those 10 extra spots you're talking about are in the context of a 21-man roster; 22 may be more realistic (1 spare F, 1 spare D), so there are really 11 spots to take. 3 ELCs + 2 cheap extra F/D = about 3.8M total. That's 12.7 cap space for 6 spots, two of those being Richardson (say 1.5) and Bernier (say 1.2), you have 10 million for 4 bottom 6 forwards/bottom pairing d-men. At a 2.5 million average you always have a few Dominic Moore-type guys hanging around (Betts re-signed for 700k, Malhotra had a 700k deal with SJ last year, etc.).

Even with more conservative (e.g. higher) estimated numbers for Doughty and JJ the Kings are nowhere close to the Hawks situation this year, because they have no truly bad contracts (except Smyth perhaps, but that's countered by Brown's great deal).

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Old
07-19-2010, 10:42 AM
  #56
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Originally Posted by barneyg View Post
Pretty sure spots 13-22 on a 22-man roster make less than 16.5 million combined on most teams.

Anyway, those 10 extra spots you're talking about are in the context of a 21-man roster; 22 may be more realistic (1 spare F, 1 spare D), so there are really 11 spots to take. 3 ELCs + 2 cheap extra F/D = about 3.8M total. That's 12.7 cap space for 6 spots, two of those being Richardson (say 1.5) and Bernier (say 1.2), you have 10 million for 4 bottom 6 forwards/bottom pairing d-men. At a 2.5 million average you always have a few Dominic Moore-type guys hanging around (Betts re-signed for 700k, Malhotra had a 700k deal with SJ last year, etc.).

Even with more conservative (e.g. higher) estimated numbers for Doughty and JJ the Kings are nowhere close to the Hawks situation this year, because they have no truly bad contracts (except Smyth perhaps, but that's countered by Brown's great deal).
That and Smyth's contract comes off relatively soon, it was the perfect timing to acquire Smyth last season.

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Old
07-19-2010, 10:46 AM
  #57
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Originally Posted by KINGS17 View Post
I'm probably as pro-management as they come, but I don't think it is in either side's interest (especially Doughty's) to have a contract that is longer than 7 or 8 years. Lombardi is going to be lucky if he can "buy" a couple years of Drew's UFA status.
I agree with this. A "lifetime" contract for a 20-year-old is nuts. I doubt either side wants to go there. I think it would be better to go with something similar to Kopitar's contract. Something like:

55 mil over 8 years (6.875 mil cap hit)
5
6
6
7
7.5
7.5
8
8

Just throwing ballpark-type numbers out there. After that he's 28 and right in the middle of his prime and you have some options. He could go with another 8 year contract that declines in the same manner this increases to take him to 36 so he could get a last contract type thing or go for a retirement contract or whatever else the CBA allows for/what contract trends are going on in 8 years. It'd be 13.675 cap between Kopitar and Doughty, but I don't think that's unmanageable considering it's our #1 center and #1 D-man and that that's only 3.4 million in cap more than what they currently take up.

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Old
07-19-2010, 10:51 AM
  #58
hatterson
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sw1tch View Post
Since Doughty is a Kings fan, and loves everything about LA, people really just have no idea what type of contract he is going to get. He could easily get in excess of 7mill since he is worth it, but because he is so competetive and wants to succeed in LA, he could also very easily take a very generous discount in the 5mill mark. Really noone knows what is going to happen there
Yea there's a big question mark in terms of his next contract.

If he plays next year at the same level as this year he will easily get some crazy offer sheets if he makes it to RFA, 4 first round picks is a small price to pay for a guy like Doughty. A team could easily offer him a deal like 120-135M over 15 years (8-9M/year).

On the same hand he could decide he absolutely loves LA, never wants to leave and sign a 5 year 25M deal so that they have a chance to put together a really solid team long team while at the same time getting his UFA status and being able to re-evaluate his future in 5 years


Last edited by hatterson: 07-19-2010 at 11:00 AM.
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Old
07-19-2010, 11:32 AM
  #59
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Originally Posted by HemskyToHall View Post
But will he have the cap space to do so?
That's the thing that posters seem to miss. If a team is in cap hell, they don't have the room to retaliate. Take the Hawks for example. Let's say they want to bust the Sharks balls for the Hjalmarsson offersheet - so want to offersheet Setoguchi for $4.5M. The thing is, you have to have the capspace to make the offersheet in the first place, so the Hawks can't respond.

I think the Kings would have to be careful long term - but Lombardi is pretty smart in that regard. He timed contracts so guys like Handzus, Smyth, Stoll & Williams contracts end as guys like Doughty, Bernier, & Simmonds need raises. Take into account that Brown's & JJ's "bargain" contracts end here at sometime, and assuming that guys progress, there is a lot of talent who will want to get paid. It'll be interesting to see how this works out.

Coming from a Hawks fan - just be careful about "assuming" that guys will take less than market value to stick around or help the team be competitive. While that does happen on rare occasion - I'd be shocked to see a guy like Doughty leave $1+M per year on the table like some seem to be assuming. The other thing to remember is that the "2nd contract" is a dead concept. Look at the Hjalmarsson O/S. I don't think that DW thought he was going to get NH for the $3.5M per year - but he was able to hurt one his teams main competitor's for basically nothing. I guarantee you that agents didn't miss that. Two years ago a guy like Buff was able to sign a 3 year contract @ $3M per year because his agent was likely able to say that another team would easily think that Buff was worth a 2nd round DP (O/S compensation). More and more players are compensated based on the perception of what they're going to be able to perform over the contract, and not what they have proven so far.


Last edited by Beukeboom Fan: 07-19-2010 at 11:47 AM.
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Old
07-19-2010, 11:46 AM
  #60
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Originally Posted by cnshockey View Post
It's my opinion. Teubert is rough and nasty but he still has a LONG ways away from being NHL ready and by the time he's ready, guys like Hickey, Voinov, Muzzin, etc will be ready and most likely on the team, leaving no room for Teubert
You bashed one guy for his opinions, yet we have to except yours?

It's my opinion Kings management will make the decision on who is playing on our blueline long-term, including on all the guys you mentioned and Teubert, not you. Your opinion is no more valid than anyone elses, so don't slam someone for saying Teubert gets into the lineup.

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Old
07-19-2010, 11:53 AM
  #61
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Well now that Ilya is gone to NJD, Kings will have a lot more potential cap to play with.

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Old
07-19-2010, 12:05 PM
  #62
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St. Louis returned the favor to Vancouver after the Canucks attempted to sign David Backes. The Blues in turn signed Steve Bernier to an offer sheet that Vancouver ended up matching. This tactic sends a message to the rest of the league: "stay away from my RFAs."
Exactly. You'll notice that David Perron hasn't been offersheeted, and I actually believe that it's partly because the other team knows the Blues will target one of their RFA's.

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