I have used Occam's razor in more than one discussion today and I say you have this one backward. The simplest explanation is that Kovalchuk signed in New Jersey because NJ offered him more money. That's it. Everything beyond that requires assumptions and speculation. The analysis that must necessarily flow from that (along with the questions Mushroom is apparently unwilling to ask) is why did the cash prevent the signing when the cap hit was right?
That could be it too, but it doesn't account for certain variables that we can feel pretty comfortable in assuming were in play.
For me, the key in making my conclusion was the fact that they didn't bring the Devils' offer to the Kings to ask them to match it. If you really wanted to sign with the Kings, wouldn't you take Lou's offer to Dean and tell him, come on, work with me, I really want to come here, but how can I pass up this offer? Of course, if one chooses to believe that Lombardi is lying about that, it becomes irrelevant.
There is other evidence to the point that it wasn't all about the money, but again, whether that evidence was representation of reality or blowing smoke, we don't really know at this time.
I don't mind Dean not matching that NJ offer. That is just insanity...sadly, it is contracts like that which will more than likely cost all of us a year of quality hockey during the next lock out.
What I am a little peeved about is that we couldn't offer cashews (instead of peanuts) for Gagne.
It will be interesting watching the owners explain that they have to lock the players out because their own GMs circumvented the salary cap rules.
Hemsky/Souray isn't the worst option, the team would move a step forward as long as Hemsky didn't get injured. Souray would bring a tough element that we miss, and can move the puck. We obviously have the resources to make such a trade to a rebuilding team.
If I was DL, I would do some serious tire-kicking on Semin. Not sure what the Caps want to do with him, honestly. It feels like a Frolov situation to me, with the team not wanting to commit. He's a really good backchecker and pickpocket, has a lot of skill, and is adept defensively - basically a step up from Frolov.
The only hang-up with Semin is that Washington is in win-now mode, and won't want prospects. Pretty sure they are after a D-man. Something like a 3-way around Souray might work if Edmonton wants to move him. Semin to LA, Souray + to Washington, Good prospects and/or picks to Edm.
I don't mind Dean not matching that NJ offer. That is just insanity...sadly, it is contracts like that which will more than likely cost all of us a year of quality hockey during the next lock out.
What I am a little peeved about is that we couldn't offer cashews (instead of peanuts) for Gagne.
Gagne had a NTC so it was his final say of where he wanted to go, and apparently he did not want to play in the Western Conference.
Something like a 3-way around Souray might work if Edmonton wants to move him. Semin to LA, Souray + to Washington, Good prospects and/or picks to Edm.
I'm going with Zad on this one. Money was the only REAL factor.
Predominant, yes, but the only? I disagree. The family pressure in this case, I think, was pretty tangible. If you saw the interview with his mom from about a week ago, that came through pretty clearly. Plus you have the fact that he could have saved himself all this headache and signed with Atlanta, if the money was the only real factor.
It will be interesting watching the owners explain that they have to lock the players out because their own GMs circumvented the salary cap rules.
Given the fans' overwhelming support of Ownership last time 'round (when they explained how they had to lockout the players because their own GMs couldn't control spending), I'm guessing Ownership doesn't see a problem.
I have used Occam's razor in more than one discussion today and I say you have this one backward. The simplest explanation is that Kovalchuk signed in New Jersey because NJ offered him more money. That's it. Everything beyond that requires assumptions and speculation. The analysis that must necessarily flow from that (along with the questions Mushroom is apparently unwilling to ask) is why did the cash prevent the signing when the cap hit was right?
I'm going to go with the "If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it's a duck." theory. AEG didn't want to pay $95M in the first 10 years. I am pretty confident that AEG was willing to beat the rumored NJ offer of $60M for 7 years, but beyond that it was a NO.
How quickly we forget? Let's wind the clocks back 9 or 10 months ago...Davis Drewiske made the starting lineup and was excellent until he got hurt.
I'm calling it right now...he'll be the 3rd pairing defenseman.
You still need another but Drewiske is going to beat out those three for that spot. Watch.
Drewiske is a tweener. He has no one skill that puts him above any of the other prospects...he's not a great skater, not really mean and not a puck carrier...
Kings need two things on defense. A. A puck mover and B. A stay at home tough D man. He is neither.
Of course you guys would think this way, it allows you to put 100% of the blame on DL, and not accept the fact that it is indeed a two way street.
You guys are so pissed off about Kovalchuk, that you refuse to think there was any other factor than money.
Ok what other factors are there? DL was quoted in saying he was impressed with Kovalchuk and he wanted him on the team. He was also quoted in saying the money was basically too much when compared to revenue. It's not Dean's fault but AEG just didn't want to commit that much cash.
Of course you guys would think this way, it allows you to put 100% of the blame on DL, and not accept the fact that it is indeed a two way street.
You guys are so pissed off about Kovalchuk, that you refuse to think there was any other factor than money.
Blame DL, TL, AEG, IK, or whomever you want, the "Kovy problem" was the cap hit or annual salary,... I really don't care anymore.
All I know is that this team is still in need of scoring and it appears that most of the "established scorers" have already been moved / signed elsewhere.
What other available scorers are out there that DL can bring in??
If we rely only on draft picks to increase the goal scoring, we will likely miss the playoffs. What then?
It will be interesting watching the owners explain that they have to lock the players out because their own GMs circumvented the salary cap rules.
I think the players may go for some restructuring. They all are paying 12% of their income every year into escrow to cover these high dollar contracts. When the Brandon Yips and Ben Lovejoys of the league get tired of paying for the owners and superstars they will agree to limit the contracts they will never get.
The only hang-up with Semin is that Washington is in win-now mode, and won't want prospects. Pretty sure they are after a D-man. Something like a 3-way around Souray might work if Edmonton wants to move him. Semin to LA, Souray + to Washington, Good prospects and/or picks to Edm.
I'd be a little surprised if the Capitals were interested in Souray, especially if it cost Semin. They already have 7 D signed for this season: Green, Schultz, Poti, Carlson, Alzner, Erskine, Sloan. Carlson looked great after being called up (29 combined regular/postseason games, 10 points, +17). There's enough offense coming out of their backend, if anything they need a shutdown guy which isn't Souray's game.
And let's not forget Souray passed through waivers not too long ago. If the Caps really wanted him, they could have claimed him and shuffled some other salaries around. I doubt they'd give up a 40 goal scorer two weeks later if Souray is the centerpiece.
The most curious thing about this is how Kovalchuk's contract is structured. He only gets $6 mm the first two years, the big pay day starts in 2012-13. Why could that be?
1) The Devils are hoping a new CBA lowers the salary floor and all existing contracts by a similar percentage amount.
2) The 'Great Fool Theory' allows the Devil's owner to sell the team in the next two years and make this contract someone else's headache. Remember, even though the cap hit is low, someone is still going to be writing six $11.5 mm checks.
I don't believe that the Union is going to accept a lowering of the salary cap. But, the Devils do not generate enough in revenues to pay Kovie. In addition, the owner has to service the debt from building the new arena. Something will have to give. Bankruptcy could be a real possibility here. Contracts could be voided by bankruptcy court. I am going to go on record and say the Kovalchuk will never collect some of the money he thinks he has coming to him.
The most curious thing about this is how Kovalchuk's contract is structured. He only gets $6 mm the first two years, the big pay day starts in 2012-13. Why could that be?
The difference between one year's salary and the next can be no more than 50% of the lower of the first two years' salary in that contract.
So the only real spot on the kigns roster, that 100% needs to be traded to fill, is the #4 spot. Now a lot of people (read: Nearly everyone) wants a pmd to play that role, but why? As far as i can make out, we want a solid stay at home defenceman. Since JJ is the pmd on the 2nd line. Unless we aquire a pmd and pair them up with greene, but that would leave the #6 rookie to play alongside JJ which is just a recipe for failure
I just finished watching the Kovalchuk press conference. Four things ran clear:
(1) Ilya stated he made his decision on the 17th. The Devils stated they were informed of Ilya's decision to ACCEPT the offer on the 17th, that evening. Thus, if you believe that, the offer had already been out there to Ilya. For how long? That wasn't asked. However, this wasn't some blind side last minute offer by NJ because, remember, Dean made their final and best on Friday and then Ilya had the weekend to think it over according to Dean and company.
(2) Lou said the decision to do this came from the top. The ownership wants to win, they just built up the facility (I guess the Devils have spent money on their infrastructure) and Ilya was the right fit to win. It is all about success and winning.
(3) Lou said that the contract is irrelevant at this point. They did what they had to in order to get him and now you do what you have to in order to be successful. He doesn't bemoan whether the contract was against fiscal responsibility. He doesn't make those decisions, ownership does. I thought this part was very interesting. You are essentially dealing with a hands on ownership that points to winning as priority number 1.
(4) Kovalchuk never actually said why he signed with NJ. He commended the team, its unity, commitment, etc. but he never actually said what the main reason was. It's ok though. We know what it was and it wasn't "New Jersey's schools."
I don't think Piston was questioning the "how" of the structure. It was more of an oddity he was pointing out. It's fishy they would start low like this when most of the structures kings fans were creating had him start at around 9 for several years and drop from there.
The devils structure has him being paid 6 at the beginning, and then jump. It's peculiar because it just so happens to coincide with the expiration of the CBA. It begs the question again: where the hell are the owners turning their profit to be able to afford the $11.5M for the subsequent 6 years? (btw, the kings had better attendance numbers than the devils last year.)
edit: And Zad, your 2nd and 3rd points are even more interesting. Lou essentially said "This is ownership's decision. They'll live by it and die by it." It doesn't sound to me like he was too thrilled with making this choice.
