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Zherdev?? How Many Points this year?

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Old
07-26-2010, 08:31 AM
  #51
BillDineen
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Originally Posted by Flyerfan808 View Post
Color me pessimistic. I think he battles through injuries all year, and has trouble adjusting back to the NA style of play. I think he will end up in Laviolettes doghouse and spend a lot of time on the 3rd line. I am not banking on him scoring more than 35 points this coming season. I hope I am wrong.
I think it all depends on PP time. If Leino and Giroux play like they did in the playoffs, they will be on it. Zherdev could be the odd man out.

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07-26-2010, 08:46 AM
  #52
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I am going to say anywhere between 55 to 70pts. 25 of them goals.

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07-26-2010, 08:51 AM
  #53
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Assuming he plays in the top6, not on 3rd line with JvR (who's still learning) and Carcillo, could very well see him putting up something like 50-80pts with almost half of them being goals.

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07-26-2010, 09:11 AM
  #54
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Assuming he plays in the top6, not on 3rd line with JvR (who's still learning) and Carcillo, could very well see him putting up something like 50-80pts with almost half of them being goals.
I think he'll fall somewhere in the 45-65 range. Something like a 25-30-55 is what I would realistically expect out of him. He has the talent to be a PPG player but he hasn't done it yet over a full season and it's not likely he'll be able to do it after playing in Russia for a year.

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Old
07-26-2010, 01:19 PM
  #55
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anywhere from 50-75 points.

maybe like 32G 28A 60P

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07-26-2010, 01:45 PM
  #56
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Did some stats:

His average over his career is 0.647 PPG. If he plays an 82 game season, that's 53.1 Points, (53).

Standard deviation over 82 games is 10.267. If I want to do a 95% confidence interval, multiply it by 2, 20.534.

Stats wise, I can say we are 95% confident that he will score between 32.5 - 73.6 points, given that margin for error.

Bored.

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07-26-2010, 08:38 PM
  #57
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I love how I used math to kill this thread.

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Old
07-26-2010, 08:39 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by JLHockeyKnight View Post
I love how I used math to kill this thread.
bzzzzt... does not compute...

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07-26-2010, 08:40 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by JLHockeyKnight View Post
I love how I used math to kill this thread.
i like how you have a 40 point range.



oh, and math kills all that is sunny, happy, and holy in this world. i blame math for gagne leaving.

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07-26-2010, 08:46 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
i like how you have a 40 point range.



oh, and math kills all that is sunny, happy, and holy in this world. i blame math for gagne leaving.
It's more useful when the standard deviation is lower. The SD was huge in comparison to the mean, mainly because he had 3 lower years and 2 good years....mind you that range is for a 95% confidence interval. I could have given you a range of roughly 42.9 to 63.3 points, but that has a 68% confidence interval (statistically, we're 68% confident it'll be in this range). Though, that isn't that confident, especially in things like manufacturing.

Meh, hopefully some of you realize that stats and math aren't all that bad.

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07-26-2010, 08:47 PM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flyerfan808 View Post
Color me pessimistic. I think he battles through injuries all year, and has trouble adjusting back to the NA style of play. I think he will end up in Laviolettes doghouse and spend a lot of time on the 3rd line. I am not banking on him scoring more than 35 points this coming season. I hope I am wrong.
that is a helluva lot more reasonable than predicting a PPG or anything north of about 60 points IMO.

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07-26-2010, 09:04 PM
  #62
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24g
33a

57pts

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07-26-2010, 09:12 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JLHockeyKnight View Post
It's more useful when the standard deviation is lower. The SD was huge in comparison to the mean, mainly because he had 3 lower years and 2 good years....mind you that range is for a 95% confidence interval. I could have given you a range of roughly 42.9 to 63.3 points, but that has a 68% confidence interval (statistically, we're 68% confident it'll be in this range). Though, that isn't that confident, especially in things like manufacturing.

Meh, hopefully some of you realize that stats and math aren't all that bad.
i have had only one good math teacher, and the guy quit after a month, not much luck getting me to see math as anything but evil incarnate

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07-26-2010, 09:17 PM
  #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JLHockeyKnight View Post
It's more useful when the standard deviation is lower. The SD was huge in comparison to the mean, mainly because he had 3 lower years and 2 good years....mind you that range is for a 95% confidence interval. I could have given you a range of roughly 42.9 to 63.3 points, but that has a 68% confidence interval (statistically, we're 68% confident it'll be in this range). Though, that isn't that confident, especially in things like manufacturing.

Meh, hopefully some of you realize that stats and math aren't all that bad.
Can I recommend you to the Flyers as Holmgren's personal capologist......

Anyway, I think he'll be a 25 goal and 55 point guy. I just wonder what his plus/minus will be.....

Having said this I do wonder how long it will take him before he starts possibly reverting back to his lazy ways. I'm sure he'll have his doghouse days....hopefully not too many.

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07-27-2010, 07:36 AM
  #65
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Originally Posted by DrDoom View Post
Can I recommend you to the Flyers as Holmgren's personal capologist......

Anyway, I think he'll be a 25 goal and 55 point guy. I just wonder what his plus/minus will be.....

Having said this I do wonder how long it will take him before he starts possibly reverting back to his lazy ways. I'm sure he'll have his doghouse days....hopefully not too many.
That was my original guess, and I'll stand by it, stats and all. He tallied 26 and 23 goals in his two good years. Assuming he continued to develop in the KHL, and now playing with players like Richards, I think he may even break the 30 goal mark.

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07-27-2010, 08:06 AM
  #66
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47 points
46 goals
1 assist on an empty netter

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Old
07-27-2010, 08:34 AM
  #67
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Originally Posted by BernieHexBergEry View Post
47 points
46 goals
1 assist on an empty netter
He tosses it on net, hits the post, ricochets out to Carter who banks the EN goal.

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07-27-2010, 08:42 AM
  #68
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Originally Posted by JLHockeyKnight View Post
He tosses it on net, hits the post, ricochets out to Carter who banks the EN goal.
Exactly what I was thinking, but I had Hartnell in mind. I left it out in case they are traded...

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07-27-2010, 08:51 AM
  #69
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I'll go with 15-20 goals, 45-50 points. I don't think anyone's going to be clamoring for him to be coming back for another season.

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07-27-2010, 09:05 AM
  #70
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I'll go with 15-20 goals, 45-50 points. I don't think anyone's going to be clamoring for him to be coming back for another season.
His last two years in the NHL, playing for not so great teams, he scored 61 and 58... he's coming to a team that will likely be a top 5 PP unit (which he will get time on) and a top 10 offensive team... and you're expecting him to only get 45-50 points?

I don't think Zherdev is going to make people forget Gagne, but I think that's significantly lowballing him.

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07-27-2010, 03:21 PM
  #71
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We'll see what the lines are, but our 2nd unit should be dangerous as **** too.

In an ideal world I would put Richards back up top with Timonen, and have Briere on the left wall.

So...

One unit:
Hartnell-Zherdev
Briere-Timonen-Richards

(The Briere-Timonen-Richards setup drove our PP so well prior to Pronger last year, that I'd like to see it together.)

Second unit:
Carter-Giroux-Leino/JVR
Pronger-Meszaros/Carle

(I'm not a huge fan of Coburn on the PP.) Those units are pretty interchangeable, and will go about things a bit differently. First one is more of a set play type unit, whereas you'd see a bit more bombs away from the top on the second unit, and the forwards working in off the half wall together.

What I think they'll actually do...

Briere-Richards-Zherdev
Pronger-Meszaros/Carle (Timonen when we really need one)

Carter-Giroux-Hartnell
Timonen-Meszaros/Carle/Coburn

With Leino and JVR fighting for PP minutes (and I could see Leino earning 'em). Hartnell will get PP minutes simply to go to the front of the net. He probably makes a bit more sense with Pronger and whomever at the top, so likely will go out with them the most.

WTF are you smoking? Pronger is getting top pairing d-man minutes even over Timonen(although he will be paired with Timonen most likely), he has the only shot on net that has a chance of getting in.



Oh, and Zherdev may get 50 pts, more likely 45pts and be a minus in the +/-, a tiger does not change his stripes.

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Old
07-27-2010, 03:31 PM
  #72
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Ok here is one. Since the Rangers just pulled a similar move with Frolov who I think is a better player.....who will score more and provide more impact...Frolov or Zherdev? I would think Frolov and Gaborik will be pretty prolific together.....

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Old
07-27-2010, 03:32 PM
  #73
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Zherdev and Leino become bff > Leino shares some of his magic "floater to beast" pills > Zherdev wins the Richard.

Book it.

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Old
07-27-2010, 03:49 PM
  #74
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I'd go with Krejci assuming Hall and Seguin are gone. He's a stud.

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Old
07-28-2010, 08:10 AM
  #75
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Zherdev will score 25 goals, and 30 assists. The guy isn't going to put up the points people think he will. He's been out of the NHL for a good while, and while he might come to a top 5 PP, he won't have the significant ice time that he found on very weak offensive teams elsewhere.

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