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MLD 2010 Mickey Ion Semi Final: #1 Toronto Marlies vs. #5 Carolina Hurricanes

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Old
07-29-2010, 04:01 PM
  #176
Leafs Forever
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Special Teamsowerplay
Power Play #1: Red Hamill-Marc Savard-Carl Liscombe-John Van Boxmeer-Stephane Richer/Brian Rolston
Power Play # 2: Al MacAdam-Doc Romnes-Art Gagne-Hy Buller-Dale Tallon

vs

PP 1: Whitney - Yashin - Lukac - Lumme - O'Connell
PP 2: G. Courtnall - Ridley - R. Courtnall - Driver - Cote


I'll start off with the top units- where I think we have an edge. Savard vs Yashin, Hamill vs Whitney have been beaten to death- people can make their own calls their, but fairly close. One may question bringing in Liscombe vs Lukac here, but in the playoffs in this kind of role, Liscombe can shine- with a 1st, 3rd, and 4th in playoff scoring, he might be the best playoff producer in this series. Lukac is a very nice scorer and a better player than Liscombe, but in the playoffs, I think Liscombe won't be far off from him.

The marlies have a very good advantage on the points in top units, however. Boxmeer is the best defencemen offensively in this series and a great PP QB, better than Carolina's PP QB O'Connel. Lumme is a good offensive defencemen, but on the point in the powerplay, I think either Richer or Rolston's forward and specalist ability are better.

In addition, I question who's going to be the net prescene on the Carolina PP. Red Hamill has all kinds of toughness and hitting and should be able to handle that well- but none of Carolina's PP forwards have any real toughness or anything to suggest they can handle the role well.

That very key factor, as well as the large advantage we have in PP pointmen give our top unit an edge I think, with Carolina's only distinctive edge (I think) maybe coming at RW.
--------------------
The gap is even wider looking at second units, I think. Centres are pretty close, but Russ Courtnall represents the worst offensive producer by a fair margin here. Art gagne vs Geoff Courtnall is an interesting comparison, but I think Art Gagne's more elite finishes are at least comparable if not better. MacAdam is the 5th best forward offensively here, but clearly better than Russ in Dreak's earlier comparison.

However, again on the points, that offensive advantage is very distinct. Driver and Cote are two solid offensive defencemen, but both in the mid-tier of defencemen offensively in this series. Buller and Tallon are likely 3 of the top-4 defencemen offensively in the series, and a very clear step up on Driver and Cote, offensively and as PP defencemen.

Considering the closeless of the forwards, I thinlk that the pointmen give us an edge on second units, and that the Marlies have a powerplay edge

Special Teams: Penalty Kill
Penalty Kill #1: Brian Rolston-Cecil Blachford-Gord Fraser-Mario Marois
Penalty Kill #2: Jan Erixon-Craig Conroy-Warren Godfrey-Hy Buller

vs


PK 1: Beaudro - Carpenter - Lumme - Beukeboom
PK 2: Trottier - Fisher - Driver - O'Connell

Here's where going for a more defensive bottom-6 is likely an advantage.

Rolston is probably the best short-handed player in this series. His short-handed scoring ability is excellent, and Blanchford can work well in a support role for him to make a very effective counrtattacks on the PK. I doubt the Beaudro-Carpenter pairing really approaches that.

Rolston is also likely a better defensive player than Carpenter spending a lot more time doing it. Blanchford's two retro selke's vs Beaudro's better quotes seem close.

Beukeboom is the best PKing defencemen here, but both Fraser and Marois rugged defensive style are superb, And Lumme seems to be fairly well behind these guys defensively. Both Fraser and Marois have some crease clearing ability as well, wheras only Beukeboom has that on the Carolina pairing.

The counterattack and Rolston's general ability considered, as well as a more balanced PK pairing gives Marlies an edge on top PK units, I think.
---------------------
Second units seem quite clear to me. Erixon's selke record is one of the best in the draft, and thouh Trottier has a very good defensive quote, I don't think he's at Erixon's defensive level.

Conroy vs Fisher is a clear comparison- Conroy has the better selke record to this point and is a better defensive player.

Driver and O'Connell are both solid-good defensive player, but do either really have crease-clearing ability, as Godfrey does? Buller is also a pretty good defencemen defensively, but I really think Godfrey gives us an edge on second-pairing PKers. With our forwards clearly better, I think the Marlies have an edge on second units, and an overall edge on the penalty kill

Conclusion: Some units are fairly close, but with the strength of their specialist defencemen and some key forward specialists, and a very balanced special teams group, I think the Marlies have a distinct special teams advantage.

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07-29-2010, 04:07 PM
  #177
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Last Note before closing post: Goaltending!

Let me just remind people that goaltending is close and will not likely be a large factor in the outcome of this series.

A reminder of the Voting Records;

Nabakov (Vezina): 2nd, 4th, 4th, 4th, 5th, 6th
Peeeters (mixed Vezina/All-star): 1st, 4th, 5th, 10th

S% regular seasons:
Save Percentage:
Peeters - 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 5th, 12th, 14th
Nabokov - 6th, 7th, 8th, 10th, 12th

Playoff records:
Pete Peeters:
-save % goes up very sightly in the play-offs
-goals against average goes up by nearly 10% in the play-offs
-he's 100 games better than .500 in the regular season, but only .500 in the play-offs.

Evgeni Nabokov:
-save % goes up very slightly
-goals against average goes down slightly
-he's 100 games better than .500 in the regualr season, and only 2 games better in the play-offs.

Despite what is generally believed, Nabakov is not bad in the playofs for the most part, and these goalies are really close. Nabakov is clearly superior in voting, but Peeters is clearly superior in s%- you can make the call on which is more important. I am of the opinion, however, that these goalies are very close all factors considered, and goaltending will not likely be how this series is won or lost.

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07-29-2010, 04:15 PM
  #178
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Closing Thoughts:
Forwards was a tough comparison. The Marlies, I think, have a good edge on top lines given the wingers and it generally clicks better (Russ Courtnall is a terrible player be a line's primary playmaker, even if Yashin isn't exactly a guy who most needed that kind of thing)

Second lines seem very tight, and depends a lot on what one prefers. I do like the much better toughness on our line, but it's a call people can make for themselves based on the extreme amount of time devoted to it.

The Bottom-6 is interesting, but I am of the view that the Marlies have edges at LW-C on both lines and the Hurricanes hev the edges at RW. Erixon vs Gelinas was a debate that was made a lot of, but I stand by Gelinas not being anything special and really being able to produce well offensively other than the clutch- and thus not going to be able to outplay Erixon's elite defensive ability. Rolston I think is clearly better than Carpenter and Conroy better than Fisher, and despite differences in roles, I think Liscombe's great offensive touch is clearly better than Irvine, who really only brings toughness. Our bottom-6 also has better shutdown ability, I think.

Defense, which we have just gone over, seems quite clearly in the Marlies favour, as well as the crucial part of the game that is special teams. Coaching, I think, also goes in the Marlies favour. Goaltending is quite close and won't make real difference.

Overall, I think that the Marlies advantages are more disinct than those of Carolina's, and led by our defense core, the Marlies shall win this series.

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07-29-2010, 04:18 PM
  #179
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
the AHL of the 40s and 50s was about equal to what the Czech or Soviet leagues would become in the 60s and 70s.
Sweet, so the AHL of the 60s was even better, and I've got two guys who were the best defenseman in that league, and had a combined six first all-star teams.

You can't find those kind of credentials in 1960s and especially 1970s defensemen in the MLD, so I'm looking pretty good by your standard.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
Warren Godfrey
not significant - 10 Year Peak has him 15th with 40%, which, due to league size is only marginally better than Beukeboom
Nice. I am glad you can see this.

BTW, I am really surprised to see Driver one percentage point behind Cote on both metrics.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leafs Forever View Post
In 1927 he also finishes 1st in points amongst defencemen, which would likely put him in the upper tier of defencemen offensively- but it's questionable whether he was a defencemen. His season seemed just too good to believe offensively for him to be a defencemen this year, but then the defencemen his team carried doesn't really fit in well with Fraser not being a defenceman. He may have split this year, or played on or the other, unsure.
Oh, come on. He was not a defenseman!

Feb: 10, 1927: http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...r+hockey&hl=en

Actually, this one here pretty much settles it:

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...r+hockey&hl=en

this one is actually from the following season, too:

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...r+hockey&hl=en

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Old
07-29-2010, 04:20 PM
  #180
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Quote:
Playoff records:
Pete Peeters:
-save % goes up very sightly in the play-offs
Unless you added up all those reconstructed records, you don't have the info needed to say this. The hockey-reference.com player page is missing four regular seasons worth of sv%, which includes three of his best, and four playoffs, including two rather long ones.

So saying he "went from .882 to .885" is wrong because his regular season sv% was likely a lot different than that, and so was his playoff sv%.

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07-29-2010, 04:25 PM
  #181
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Oh, come on. He was not a defenseman!

Feb: 10, 1927: http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...r+hockey&hl=en

Actually, this one here pretty much settles it:

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...r+hockey&hl=en

this one is actually from the following season, too:

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...r+hockey&hl=en
Were those posted before? Missed them if so. Well, it seems he was indeed not a defencemen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Unless you added up all those reconstructed records, you don't have the info needed to say this. The hockey-reference.com player page is missing four regular seasons worth of sv%, which includes three of his best, and four playoffs, including two rather long ones.

So saying he "went from .882 to .885" is wrong because his regular season sv% was likely a lot different than that, and so was his playoff sv%.
Fair enough.

Despite both of these those, I standby Fraser's approximate offensive ranking (wasn't factoring in that 1st in defencemen in that anyway) and goaltending being very close.

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07-29-2010, 04:29 PM
  #182
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Wow. An AHL coach is now the better one. So when players play in lesser leagues they get lambasted for it (like TDMM's Zabrodsky), but when coaches win in laughable joke leagues they are better than coaches that win at the highest level? Oooookaaaaay....

As for the defense, resorting to using offensive numbers when your defense is clearly worse defensively... sure.

Cote has no intangibles and is defensively on the level of freakin' Tallon. What parallel universe can spawn such thoughts? Was it his above-average offense alone that got him selected to play in the World Cup?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Baltimore Sun
PITTSBURGH -- The Washington Capitals' chances of upsetting the Pittsburgh Penguins in the playoffs suffered a major blow yesterday, when the team learned it had lost veteran defenseman Sylvain Cote for up to three weeks.

Cote, the Capitals' most reliable defenseman, suffered a fractured right orbital bone when he was hit in the face with the butt end of a stick during the second period Sunday, in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals.

"He's been our MVP all year," coach Jim Schoenfeld said of Cote, who produced a plus-30 rating, 16 goals and a career-high 35 assists. "He's great on defense and great on offense, and we're going to miss him. But that's the nature of hockey. It's a rallying point, not something we can't overcome."
Quote:
Originally Posted by CBS scouting report
"An excellent skater with an excellent burst of speed, good balance and agility and is a powerful backward skater. He has a great slapshot from the blueline, keeping his shots low, and gets it through. Excellent puck control, good stickhandler, moves the pucks well and can carry it out of his own end. He is a good body checker who plays the man well in corners and alonge the boards and clears traffic in front of the net with authority. Has excellent natural ability in all aspects of the game."
I can even quote some old hockey cards (which is a source you seem accept):

"A superb skater and puckhandler, Sylvain was named the Whalers' most valuable defenseman in '90-91" (he scored a grand total of 19 points, so it was hardly on his offense' merit)
"Sylvain's quickness and mobility make him very difficult to beat one-on-one"

He's definitely ahead of the defensively mediocre Tallon.


Then we have things like the flash in the pan Buller being considered ahead of Lumme or Driver. You guys should've drafter Jim Carey, for he has even greater peak of same length as Buller.

It's telling you chose to focus on the offensive accomplishments, because you have several defensively suspect players - Tallon, Van Boxmeer and Buller.

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07-29-2010, 04:34 PM
  #183
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Quote:
Then we have things like the flash in the pan Buller being considered ahead of Lumme or Driver. You guys should've drafter Jim Carey, for he has even greater peak of same length as Buller.
Come on, you know that's not the same thing.

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07-29-2010, 04:43 PM
  #184
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
Overall, Hy Buller, might be the best defenseman in this series, and, of course, I think he is. As 70s has brought up a few times, Hy Buller was kept out of the NHL due to anti-semitism, and when he was finally given a full-time role, he put up offensive numbers that were nearly as impressive as Doug Harvey and Bill Gadsby. In addition to offense, he played a well-rounded game than his coach, Frank Boucher, compared to Bill Quackenbush.

The main question about Buller is how much does his AHL career means. Obviously, the AHL accomplishments are not the same as NHL onces, but I think they should be viewed as no different than accomplishments from European leagues and Russia. The AHL that Buller played in was definately the second best league in the world at the time - it's nothing like it is today. A Russian defenseman that put up Buller's numbers in the Soviet League would probably be an ATD 3rd pairing guy, and, in my opinion, the AHL of the 40s and 50s was about equal to what the Czech or Soviet leagues would become in the 60s and 70s.

He definately has the best peak, and I think, with his dominance in the AHL, he's got very good longevity too.
That's a stretch. By the 70s, the best of the Soviet league were giving the best NHL players all that they could handle. I really can't see the best AHLers from any time frame doing the same.

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07-29-2010, 04:43 PM
  #185
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Closing thoughts:

Marlies placed a very heavy value on short peaks (including a bunch flash-in-the-pan players), specialist players, toughness and offensive production from the backend. As a whole the team is clearly lacking in skating ability and speed in comparison to ours, and the defense is rather leaky. Carolina has more balanced scoring, more reliable offensive producers and much more reliable defense. Coaching is another clear advantage for us - not only is Laviolette clearly the better coach, our team is built to suit him, with reliable defense and fast, aggressive attack.

But the key point is, the Marlies' mediocre and not very mobile defense will be in ton of trouble facing our fast, skilled forwards.

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07-29-2010, 04:47 PM
  #186
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Quote:
Wow. An AHL coach is now the better one. So when players play in lesser leagues they get lambasted for it (like TDMM's Zabrodsky), but when coaches win in laughable joke leagues they are better than coaches that win at the highest level? Oooookaaaaay....
There's a difference between coaches and players when it comes to lesser leagues. Coaching is a job of line matching, personality handling, getting the best out of players, etc..- that is unversal for all leagues and is not necessarily going to be harder, or particularly harder, in a top league.

The AHL was the second best league in the world at the time- what's laughable and jokeable about it? It was closer to the NHL in it's time than say, the Czech leagues were.

And frankly, how much these guys won is not at all comparable. 8 championships vs 1 championship, 10 finalist appearences vs 2- more than makes up for gap in leagues in my mind.

Quote:
As for the defense, resorting to using offensive numbers when your defense is clearly worse defensively... sure.

Cote has no intangibles and is defensively on the level of freakin' Tallon. What parallel universe can spawn such thoughts? Was it his above-average offense alone that got him selected to play in the World Cup?
Offense is around half the part to compare...why wouldn't we look at it? And I followed it up shortly after with an intangible comparison...

Execuse me for not knowing about a player and not having quotes on said players. Calm down, I wasn't trying to be strong on that point- just a result of lack of evidence I had.

He does seem to be a pretty good intangible guy. Those third pairings seem quite close in both intangibles and offense, where our pairing probably has the best in each department, but the worst in other, while Gibbs and Cote are more balanced. With top pairings, however, I think our defense core still has an edge.


Quote:
Then we have things like the flash in the pan Buller being considered ahead of Lumme or Driver. You guys should've drafter Jim Carey, for he has even greater peak of same length as Buller.

It's telling you chose to focus on the offensive accomplishments, because you have several defensively suspect players - Tallon, Van Boxmeer and Buller.
You sure like whipping out that phrase, don't you?

Buller was not "flash in the pan" He was elite for a number of years in the AHL, the second best league in the world, before finally getting an opportunity to come up to the NHL and he dominated there. That AHL stuff isn't worthless.

I spent around as long a post looking at offense as I did intangibles- Dreak just posted a lot on offense and then we ended up posting our essential agreeance with eachother, before he had to go.

What is defensively suspet about those guys, exactly? Buller is compared to Bill Quackenbush, two-way defencemen extraordinare, and is described as a good stick checker by Frank Boucher- he doesn't have defensive problems. Van Boxmeer has ok quote from LOH, but isn't at all described as a liability. Tallon doesn't have anything on his defense, but he isn't described as a liability either.

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07-29-2010, 04:51 PM
  #187
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On the question of mobility from our defenders- our D-core isn't fast, but I challenge anyone to find anything on them being slow. All I'll say on closing arguements to be fair.

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07-30-2010, 11:13 AM
  #188
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
That's a stretch. By the 70s, the best of the Soviet league were giving the best NHL players all that they could handle. I really can't see the best AHLers from any time frame doing the same.
I suppose the 70s Soviet League may be a little bit of a stretch, but keep in mid that there's a big difference between their National Team and the league. I think it's pretty widely accepted that, after the top dozen or so players, the Soviet League wasn't that strong.

The rest of it, however, it pretty fair, right?

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07-30-2010, 11:42 AM
  #189
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MadArcand View Post
It's telling you chose to focus on the offensive accomplishments, because you have several defensively suspect players - Tallon, Van Boxmeer and Buller.
There's no evidence that supports your claim. In fact, there's evidence to the contrairy.

While Dale Tallon was hardly a defensive rock, he definately wasn't a liability either.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legends of Hockey
Prior to the 1978-79 season, he was sent to the Pittsburgh Penguins where he played steady hockey for a season-and-a-half before retiring in 1980.
Same thing with John Van Boxmeer - he may not have been Chris Chelios, but he played a well-rounded game.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legends of Hockey
Bowman was now with the Sabres and recalled how he had reluctantly moved Van Boxmeer three seasons earlier. The Sabres need the two-way flexibility the defenseman provided. Van Boxmeer responded with a +40 season and help the Sabres climb to first place in their division.

As for Buller, here's what was said about him when he was still in the AHL... you know? Before he was a flash in the pan....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Conn Smythe
I'd rate him right up with the top 10 defensemen in all hockey today.

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07-30-2010, 11:49 AM
  #190
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Originally Posted by MadArcand View Post
But the key point is, the Marlies' mediocre and not very mobile defense will be in ton of trouble facing our fast, skilled forwards.
Again, you have no evidence to support your claim.

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07-30-2010, 02:19 PM
  #191
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Sweet, so the AHL of the 60s was even better, and I've got two guys who were the best defenseman in that league, and had a combined six first all-star teams.
Actually, I'm not sure that's the case. Sure the quality of hockey was better in the 60s, but that's the natural progression of te game. Relative to what the rest of the world was doing, the AHL was slipping. With the emergence of Soviet and European hockey through the late 50s and early 60s, I don't think the AHL was the second best league in the world, and, even if it was, there were still many more great players outside North America than there were in the 40s and 50s.

I think everyone would agree that the AHL in the 40s was definately the second best league in the world. In the 50s, I still think it was slightly better than what the Soviets, Swedes, and Czechs were playing, but that gap was definately closing fast. By the time the 60s roles along, I think it's pretty safe to assume that the AHL was definately not the second best league in te world.

Is that fair?

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07-30-2010, 04:21 PM
  #192
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
I suppose the 70s Soviet League may be a little bit of a stretch, but keep in mid that there's a big difference between their National Team and the league. I think it's pretty widely accepted that, after the top dozen or so players, the Soviet League wasn't that strong.

The rest of it, however, it pretty fair, right?
Well, we just have no idea how good or bad the depth Soviet players were. Obviously worse than the NHL, but similar quality to the O6 AHL? We really have no idea.

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07-30-2010, 04:25 PM
  #193
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post

I think everyone would agree that the AHL in the 40s was definately the second best league in the world. In the 50s, I still think it was slightly better than what the Soviets, Swedes, and Czechs were playing, but that gap was definately closing fast. By the time the 60s roles along, I think it's pretty safe to assume that the AHL was definately not the second best league in te world.

Is that fair?
I'd say the Soviets were the only other team who could maybe rival the AHL in the 50s maybe. Most of the Czech national team either died in the 48 plane crash or was arrested in 1950, so the Czech league was actually better in the 40s than it was in the 50s.

But then, I'm not sure if I agree with how you're looking it it. The players in the AHL didn't get worse from the 40s to the 60s, just because the Euro leagues got better. To put it another way, just because the Europeans got better into the 60s and 70s doesn't mean that there was less talent in Canada (if anything, Canadian talent almost certainly slowly increased).

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07-30-2010, 05:32 PM
  #194
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Toronto Marlies defeat the Carolina Hurricanes in 5 games.

3 stars to come later.

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07-30-2010, 10:33 PM
  #195
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Toronto Marlies defeat the Carolina Hurricanes in 5 games.

3 stars to come later.
Thanks to those who votes for the Malies, and thanks to MadArcand for the very involved debate.

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07-30-2010, 11:39 PM
  #196
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Great series Carolina. 8 pages for an MLD series might be a record.

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07-31-2010, 04:27 AM
  #197
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Congrats guys, good luck in the final.

Can't say I'm happy, but at least we lost to a really good team - I ranked Marlies second in the division right behind us in the regular season.

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08-01-2010, 04:22 PM
  #198
tony d
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Enjoyed doing this immensely. Want to congratulate dreamkur and Leafsforever on a well-argued and fair series. Also want to thank madarcand for helping me out a lot in this. All the best to the final 4 teams and I hope to take part in these in the future.

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