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MLD 2010 Sir Allan Montagu Semi Final: #1 Florida Hammerheads vs. #4 St. Mary’s Huski

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Old
07-26-2010, 03:48 PM
  #26
Stoneberg
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Originally Posted by Hedberg View Post
Maybe top-10s don't carry as much weight, but top-3s should (and retro Harts definitely should)
It may just be me, but I'm always unsure about how to value performance in those leagues. Are we to assume that dominance in a small, undevelopped league, is to be on the same level as dominance in a much larger modern league. I'm genuinely confused about how to go about valuing pre-merger players and looking to get on the same page as others here. I guess I'm just having a hard time wrapping my head around it. Any input, metrics, suggestions, etc, would be valuable for me moving forward in these things.

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Yeah, Jonathan would probably loose to Schultz, but that won't determine the series (they did fight once in their careers)
Agreed. I don't suppose there is video or a link to discussion of the fight? I'm genuinely interested in how it went.
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
I was responding to the claim that they didn't have bang and crash players on the 4th line.
Fair enough, took it the wrong way.
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They don't... but even if you go as far as multiplying those finishes by 3 to account for smaller talent pool and the fact that some great players would have been scattered in other leagues, both Swift and McDougall look pretty good.
re: what I said above quoting Hedberg.

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07-26-2010, 04:00 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Hedberg View Post
Winning the Conn Smythe generally indicates you weren't just along for the ride. And Ranford did follow it up with the Canada Cup MVP the next year.
In the same way that Jonsson's best defensman award doesn't carry the same value as Keith's Norris, the Canada Cup MVP certainly doesn't carry similar value to a Vezina. Of course, Kolzig doesn't have the Smythe, but his team had no business being in the finals in their cup run year and I'd consider his playoff performance that year to be more impressive than Ranford's Smythe year, given all the factors.

I realize you were quoting his post regarding our backup, but figured it was more worthwhile to discuss our starter. Again though, hoping to get in to more detail to prove a bigger edge in nets later (admittedly not sure if the evidence is there or not).

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07-26-2010, 04:10 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Stalberg View Post
In the same way that Jonsson's best defensman award doesn't carry the same value as Keith's Norris, the Canada Cup MVP certainly doesn't carry similar value to a Vezina. Of course, Kolzig doesn't have the Smythe, but his team had no business being in the finals in their cup run year and I'd consider his playoff performance that year to be more impressive than Ranford's Smythe year, given all the factors.
No question a Canada Cup MVP is worth less than a Vezina, but it does show he was a starter capable of being stellar. I don't object to Kolzig being better than Ranford, just to the idea that Ranford himself wasn't a very good goalie at times.

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07-26-2010, 04:16 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Hedberg View Post
No question a Canada Cup MVP is worth less than a Vezina, but it does show he was a starter capable of being stellar. I don't object to Kolzig being better than Ranford, just to the idea that Ranford himself wasn't a very good goalie at times.
We are on the same page then.

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07-26-2010, 04:21 PM
  #30
Hedberg
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Agreed. I don't suppose there is video or a link to discussion of the fight? I'm genuinely interested in how it went.
There is video:

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07-26-2010, 04:35 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Stalberg View Post
It may just be me, but I'm always unsure about how to value performance in those leagues. Are we to assume that dominance in a small, undevelopped league, is to be on the same level as dominance in a much larger modern league. I'm genuinely confused about how to go about valuing pre-merger players and looking to get on the same page as others here. I guess I'm just having a hard time wrapping my head around it. Any input, metrics, suggestions, etc, would be valuable for me moving forward in these things.
.
It's hard for me too.

Post-1929, things are easy. All the best North Americans are in the NHL.

From about 1916-1929, it's not that tough. The PCHA and NHA/NHL were basically half leagues, with a few scattered players in the WHL (which was off and on affiliated with the PCHA).

Before World War I, things are crazy:

1) Players are scattered among several different leagues.

2) Some of the best players in the world refused to go pro. What do their accomplishments in amateur leagues mean?

3) The talent pool was definitely really thin back then. The farther back you go, the thinner it gets. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if there were only 500 people in the entire world player a game that resembles hockey in the 1890s. How does this translate? I have a hard time giving full credit to even the top players in the world when the talent pool was this small.

4) Notice I said "a game that resembles hockey?" This is going to be really controversial around here, but the farther back you go, the less the game of "hockey" resembles what we call hockey, and it's hard to know how accomplishments of "hockey" players from back then translate.

For instance, what do assist totals really mean from the really early days? In the 1910s, Cyclone Taylor became the first player to really make setting up his teammates his first option to create offense. The forward pass was allowed in all 3 zones by 1930, and Frank Boucher and Joe Primeau established the center position as the primary puck handler and playmaker in the decade that followed.

The farther back you go, the less the game resembles the modern game, and the harder it is to know if the players would adapt to the modern game.
______________________

Anyway, to your question:

Quote:
Are we to assume that dominance in a small, undevelopped league, is to be on the same level as dominance in a much larger modern league.
My answer: "It is absolutely not on the same level, but should still be valued; I'm just honestly not sure by how much." But opinions are certainly mixed on the matter.

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07-26-2010, 04:36 PM
  #32
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There is video:
No wonder the Broad Street Bullies were so angry. Their jerseys are hideous!

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07-27-2010, 01:45 AM
  #33
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Being an energy line doesnt mean that all three of the players have to play alike??

All three of our players bring a form of upbeat play to mesh into one great energy line that can produce as well.

1.Parise is the fiesty forward who will chase and win loose pucks as well as put the puck in the net.

2.)Blair is your prototypical big body presence who will crash and bang with the best of them and as well will set up Parise.

3.)Schultz is clearly the muscle for the team and is well documented on his ability to pound whoemever as well as crash and bang in the corners and drive the net. I wish some of you have seen the HBO Documentary on the Broad Street Bullies there is a great bit on how Schultz beating the tar out of this guy from the Rangers swayed the momentum of the series in favour of the Flyers. (If anybody has seen the documentary please speak up.)

If these three forwards dont scream high energy in your face play who can crash and bang and put the puck in the net for an MLD 4th line I dont know what does.
Look, I'm not denying that individually, you have good pieces on that line. However, I'm not convinced that Parise will be able to score more than a goal over the course of a 7 gamer playing with Blair and Schultz, who is close to being a black hole on offense on that line. Similarly, I might want someone who could handle getting run a little better (something that will happen to fourth line players) than Parise. I unfortunately don't get to follow NJ much, but does Parise ever hit? That's all I'm getting at. Yeah, all three guys can forecheck and such, I'm just questioning how effective they'll be as a cohesive unit because it's hard to imagine such different players having solid chemistry.

Also, I could agree that Ranford is slightly better, but as far as I'm concerned, goaltending is pretty much a wash.

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07-27-2010, 07:29 AM
  #34
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Originally Posted by vancityluongo View Post
Look, I'm not denying that individually, you have good pieces on that line. However, I'm not convinced that Parise will be able to score more than a goal over the course of a 7 gamer playing with Blair and Schultz, who is close to being a black hole on offense on that line.
Blair has a top 2 in assists and a top 3 in points, is there a better 4th line play maker than him in the league?? He is traditionally a 2nd liner in this thing. Also keep in mind Bill Goldsworthy will be able to take some shifts on this line creating a
Parise-Blair-Goldsworthy 4th line


Quote:
Similarly, I might want someone who could handle getting run a little better (something that will happen to fourth line players) than Parise. I unfortunately don't get to follow NJ much, but does Parise ever hit? That's all I'm getting at.
Why will 4th line players automatically get hit a lot?? Your team has already stated your 4th line will be matched up against our top line. Even still Parise has been a top line forward for a while and has always drew the opposing teams top checking units, so without a doubt he can handle that without any issue.

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Yeah, all three guys can forecheck and such, I'm just questioning how effective they'll be as a cohesive unit because it's hard to imagine such different players having solid chemistry.
How are they so different if they can all forecheck and such? You already answered your own question, That doesnt make any sense. How does Stan Jonathan fit in with Sammy Pahlson and Anders Kallur.

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Also, I could agree that Ranford is slightly better, but as far as I'm concerned, goaltending is pretty much a wash.

I'm hoping you mean Kolzig, your own co-gm has already stated that the Huskies have the edge in nets.


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My answer: "It is absolutely not on the same level, but should still be valued; I'm just honestly not sure by how much." But opinions are certainly mixed on the matter.
That's the problem with Florida's team there are far too many question marks regarding their top 2 lines. Relying on Dolly Swift and Robert McDougall to carry the offensive load, as well as the puck winning load, is unproven and therefore not viable. Tardiff as well is a major question mark due to his success in the 2nd best league in the world. It's almost like a Cam Neely scenario where we would think what if? What if Cam didn't get injured or what if Marc Tardif didnt go for the money and play in the WHA during his prime, the good thing about the ATD and MLD is that we can't put any value into what if's. Craig Janney's a massive question mark as well regarding his ability to handle the abuse he will receive. Which Janney will show up?



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No wonder the Broad Street Bullies were so angry. Their jerseys are hideous!
First of all that was a bad-ass fight!! Im almost tempted to say that, that fight happened when Schultzy played for the Kings or Penguins looking at the terrible terrible jerseys.


Also who is the puck winner for your 2nd line??


Last edited by markrander87: 07-27-2010 at 07:37 AM.
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07-27-2010, 08:44 AM
  #35
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BILL RANFORD VS. OLAF KOLZIG


For several years (about 1992 onward) the typical opinion on Ranford was 'he's a great goalie, his numbers just stink because he plays for Edmonton'. When he was traded and continued to stink in Boston/Washington (while Joseph produced a massive upgrade in net for the Oilers) it became obvious that his numbers stunk because he was a stinky flopping goalie who managed to ride his great play in the 1990 playoffs for way too long. -MS

When Comparing Goaltenders I feel the best method and the most logical is to use save %.


Bill Ranford

-Career .888 save %
-One career top 10 in save %
-68th all time in save %
-Career Playoff save % of .897

Olaf Kolzig

-Career save % of .906
-Three career top 10's in save %
-27th all time in save %
Career Playoff save % of .927


Last edited by markrander87: 07-27-2010 at 08:56 AM.
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07-27-2010, 11:10 AM
  #36
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
No wonder the Broad Street Bullies were so angry. Their jerseys are hideous!
Those are the Kings jerseys

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07-27-2010, 11:30 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Chigurh View Post
Those are the Kings jerseys


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First of all that was a bad-ass fight!! Im almost tempted to say that, that fight happened when Schultzy played for the Kings or Penguins looking at the terrible terrible jerseys.

Case closed

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07-27-2010, 11:36 AM
  #38
Hedberg
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Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post

When Comparing Goaltenders I feel the best method and the most logical is to use save %.


Bill Ranford

-Career .888 save %
-One career top 10 in save %
-68th all time in save %
-Career Playoff save % of .897

Olaf Kolzig

-Career save % of .906
-Three career top 10's in save %
-27th all time in save %
Career Playoff save % of .927
Except average save percentages during Ranford's prime (1990-1995) were lower than during Kolzig's prime (1998-2004).

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07-27-2010, 12:08 PM
  #39
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How are they so different if they can all forecheck and such? You already answered your own question, That doesnt make any sense. How does Stan Jonathan fit in with Sammy Pahlson and Anders Kallur.
Stan Jonathan was one of the league's "hardest working" players. A physical presences who forechecks and backchecks hard is usually a great compliment to two committed checking line players.


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Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
That's the problem with Florida's team there are far too many question marks regarding their top 2 lines. Relying on Dolly Swift and Robert McDougall to carry the offensive load, as well as the puck winning load, is unproven and therefore not viable.
That's a myopic view of history. McDougall and Swift played in a better league than Whitcroft. They were dominant players against the best players in the world. This isn't even a Bobrov situation. Pre-NHL success has to matter for the MLD to even be worth having.

And why exactly is Tardif unacceptable in "winning the puck"?

Montreal Gazette, March 2, 1972
Quote:
Tardif picked up the loose puck in the corner, carried around Sabres' goal and laid the pass out to Cournoyer, who banged in his 35th
Montreal Gazette, March 1, 1973
Quote:
Guy Lafleur wound up with the Molson Trophy as player of the month after many near misses on good chances. Most of them because of the hustle of Tardif who backchecked, forechecked, skated every which way and continually forced the play
Montreal Gazette, February 22nd, 1973
Quote:
Tardif went in along the boards with Bill White and then put the puck back to Lafleur
Pittsburgh Press, April 12, 1976
Quote:
Tardif, who was in the corner with the puck
Tardif was fast, decently tough, and in his early years worked the corners on Montreal's energy line before being the go to guy in his prime. The combination of him and the speedy Dolly Swift will be able to win pucks.

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Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
Tardiff as well is a major question mark due to his success in the 2nd best league in the world. It's almost like a Cam Neely scenario where we would think what if? What if Cam didn't get injured or what if Marc Tardif didnt go for the money and play in the WHA during his prime, the good thing about the ATD and MLD is that we can't put any value into what if's.
It's not really a what if. At the time he was considered among the best players in the world and received an invite to the loaded 1976 Canada Cup training cup, but he could not attend due to injury. In the MLD All-Star Voting, he was on the second team so clearly others don't view him as unproven.


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Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
Craig Janney's a massive question mark as well regarding his ability to handle the abuse he will receive. Which Janney will show up?
Being soft didn't prevent Janney from putting up 110 points in 120 playoff games (in his prime he put up 94 points in 90). Clearly he could play in the playoffs. Plus if your plan is to constantly abuse him, there will be penalties.

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Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
Also who is the puck winner for your 2nd line??
Ridpath ("very fast and aggressive and a great stick handler") or McDougall


Last edited by Hedberg: 07-27-2010 at 02:18 PM.
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07-27-2010, 01:11 PM
  #40
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Blair has a top 2 in assists and a top 3 in points, is there a better 4th line play maker than him in the league?? He is traditionally a 2nd liner in this thing. Also keep in mind Bill Goldsworthy will be able to take some shifts on this line creating a
Parise-Blair-Goldsworthy 4th line
I meant Schultz as the black hole. That line with Goldsworthy is an awesome fourth line, no questions asked, however, does double shifting Goldsworthy like that reduce his effectiveness.



Quote:
Why will 4th line players automatically get hit a lot?? Your team has already stated your 4th line will be matched up against our top line. Even still Parise has been a top line forward for a while and has always drew the opposing teams top checking units, so without a doubt he can handle that without any issue.
Assuming the 4th line is this scrappy gritty energy line that you keep saying it is, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect that they'd be countered with chippy play? Our fourth line is a clear checking line, as we've stated many times.


Quote:
How are they so different if they can all forecheck and such? You already answered your own question.
Alright, so evidently I answered my question when you were unable to. The main purpose of that line would be to forecheck, which they might be able to do at a effective level. Expecting any scoring or goonery (for lack of a better term), however, would be improbable.


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I'm hoping you mean Kolzig, your own co-gm has already stated that the Huskies have the edge in nets.
Yes, my mistake.

Quote:
Tardiff as well is a major question mark due to his success in the 2nd best league in the world. It's almost like a Cam Neely scenario where we would think what if? What if Cam didn't get injured or what if Marc Tardif didnt go for the money and play in the WHA during his prime, the good thing about the ATD and MLD is that we can't put any value into what if's
Exactly, so I'm not following why you're bringing up this what if stuff. Tardiff, despite playing in the WHA, is still probably the best forward in this series. Should he have stayed in the NHL, who knows, maybe he gets selected in the main draft right around Neely...however, that's completely irrelevant.

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07-27-2010, 03:27 PM
  #41
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I wish work didn't keep piling up so I could get in to this with some research time but some comments:

-Good quotes on Tardif's puckwinning ability. I'm also thrilled that he will be the primary puck winner on the line, because I haven't seen enough on Swift to support his puck winning ability - having speed isn't going to be enough to cut it in the corners with Ricci and co. Tardif having that role along with facing our elite shut down line should limit the production of Florida's biggest offensive weapon. I'm glad to have Henning lining up accross from him as well.

- Jonothan is a decent fit on a checking line, I have no qualms with it. I still think it would be more effective with another defensive player, though.

- With regards to the pre-merger players, after reading what TDMM said it's clear that some are on the same page as me. I'm not sure how highly you guys are valuing those finishes, but I can't accept them as superior to post-merger success with the talent scattered accross the board and so few playing. I guess this will just come down to a voters view on the issue, and most probably give them more value than I do.

-Re: Janney. Abuse is fully within the rules of the game, there won't be any unecessary penalties required to keep a legendary soft player like him to the perimiter. I'm impressed by his playoff totals, but I can assure you he wasn't lining up against a Mike Ricci anchored, top 3 checking line, for the large majority of those.


Quote:
Ridpath ("very fast and aggressive and a great stick handler") or McDougall
This gives absolutely no indication of puck winning ability to me, I'm sure there must be more than that.

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Originally Posted by vancityluongo View Post
I meant Schultz as the black hole. That line with Goldsworthy is an awesome fourth line, no questions asked, however, does double shifting Goldsworthy like that reduce his effectiveness.
Look at the minute allocation on page 1, clearly that won't be the case. I could probably even give him a minute or two more, but don't want to risk it.

Quote:
Assuming the 4th line is this scrappy gritty energy line that you keep saying it is, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect that they'd be countered with chippy play? Our fourth line is a clear checking line, as we've stated many times.
Our fourth line is there to work the boards, crash the net, and chip in the odd goal. All of which while being defensively responsible. You have been underestimating Parise's board play and grit the whole time, from what I've read. Watch him more next year, he's a beauty.

Quote:
Alright, so evidently I answered my question when you were unable to. The main purpose of that line would be to forecheck, which they might be able to do at a effective level. Expecting any scoring or goonery (for lack of a better term), however, would be improbable.
Unfounded. Of course we are expecting production and some goonery, but I assume you meant that the occurance of scoring and goonery was improbable, not the expectation for it, which I also disagree with.

What's not to get? Blair is a monster who plays an aggressive style, was known for "whirling rushes" apparently, and has the ability to set up plays.

Parise is a tireless worker, very effective down low and along the boards, and is the best (and likely most versatile) goal scorer in either bottom six.

Then there is Schultz who is obviously there for his muscle, board work, and crashing the net. Is he going to limit the lines production compared to a more gifted player, probably, but he sure as hell won't make it any easier to play against.

So we have three guys who can work the boards effectively and play both an aggressive and responsible game, two of which are huge and like physical play (and of course Parise won't be easy to knock off the puck either)...I'm not really sure how that doesn't make for an effective fourth line, because I'd like my fourth line to be able to control the play on the boards and drive the net when the puck gets moved back to the point. A good possession shift by a fourth line can change the momentum of a game, we've seen it time and time again in the NHL.

Quote:
Exactly, so I'm not following why you're bringing up this what if stuff. Tardiff, despite playing in the WHA, is still probably the best forward in this series. Should he have stayed in the NHL, who knows, maybe he gets selected in the main draft right around Neely...however, that's completely irrelevant.
I think it's clear at this point that Mark and I value the WHA significantly lower than you two (and probably most of the voters too, so you likely don't have reason for concern). We considered and passed on Tardif when we took Goldsworthy. That said he still only really had a couple of impressive seasons in the WHA.

What would you equate leading the WHA in goals or assists with? I definitely can't wrap my head around it being a 5-10 finish in the NHL, 10-20 might be more reasonable given the quality of the leagues but even that may be a stretch.

I'd look at Real Cloutier as a good example. He was, in theory, before his prime while playing in the WHA. In the five seasons of his "prime" (23-27) in the NHL, following the year he lead the WHA in goals, he didn't have any top tens in any production category in the NHL. A couple of respectable offensive seasons was about it. Granted, I'm willing to admit Tardif was a better player than Cloutier - this still has to indicate that the WHA was a substantially weaker league, and I think it supports the fact that top 10's in that 2nd rate league are highly overvalued. The fact that Tardif played his prime there still seems like a cop-out, if Cloutier couldn't transfer WHA dominance over to the NHL, what indication do we have that Tardiff could aside from being unimpressive before and after his WHA days? Sure, getting invited to a Canada Cup camp is nice, but he didn't show, and therefore didn't prove himself in any way.

If I had more time I'd look for some more examples, as I'm sure there are plenty. The fact of the matter remains that he only had the two really dominant seasons in the WHA (the 6th and 7th in WHA scoring surely don't impress me - just look at the names that finished behind him).

I feel like something must be going way over my head with this WHA stuff, because dominance in that league has never impressed me and still doesn't the more I learn about the league.


Edit: Well, that took longer than I planned.


Last edited by Stoneberg: 07-27-2010 at 03:35 PM.
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07-27-2010, 04:03 PM
  #42
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Our fourth line is there to work the boards, crash the net, and chip in the odd goal. All of which while being defensively responsible. You have been underestimating Parise's board play and grit the whole time, from what I've read. Watch him more next year, he's a beauty.
Parise is probably one of the best "for his size" board men in the NHL. Whatever line he's on immediately becomes the best cycling line on NJ. But "for his size" is important - he's a relatively small player. But here, he's playing with 2 giants, so that shouldn't be an issue.
Quote:
Parise is a tireless worker, very effective down low and along the boards, and is the best (and likely most versatile) goal scorer in either bottom six.
I wouldn't call Parise a versatile goal scorer. 90% of his goals are from within 5 feet of the net (very similar to the game-typing goal against Canada in the Olympics), and a large portion of the rest are on breakaways. It's amazing how many goals he scorers with literally no slapshot in his arsenal.

Anyway, I can see your 4th line working very effectively in the cycle game, with Parise being able to chip a puck in the net on the occasion it ever gets in front.

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Edit: Well, that took longer than I planned.
They always do.

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07-27-2010, 05:09 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by Stalberg View Post
-Good quotes on Tardif's puckwinning ability. I'm also thrilled that he will be the primary puck winner on the line, because I haven't seen enough on Swift to support his puck winning ability -
having speed isn't going to be enough to cut it in the corners with Ricci and co. Tardif having that role along with facing our elite shut down line should limit the production of Florida's biggest offensive weapon. I'm glad to have Henning lining up accross from him as well.
You're forgetting we have home ice. Not every shift will see my top line against the Ricci line. Also, you are putting too much emphasis on winning the puck. You assume the line has to win the puck every shift. Florida has superior puck movers in Keith, Halderson, Wilson, and McNamara (and Swift's rover experience also has him function as a puck mover). Florida is not a dump and chase team, but a team that can break into the zone. We have guys that can win the puck, but Florida is largely a puck possession team. If you have home ice and the better defence, it's easier for a team to control the pace of play.

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Originally Posted by Stalberg View Post
- Jonothan is a decent fit on a checking line, I have no qualms with it. I still think it would be more effective with another defensive player, though.
Sergei Nemchinov is possible.

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Originally Posted by Stalberg View Post
- With regards to the pre-merger players, after reading what TDMM said it's clear that some are on the same page as me. I'm not sure how highly you guys are valuing those finishes, but I can't accept them as superior to post-merger success with the talent scattered accross the board and so few playing. I guess this will just come down to a voters view on the issue, and most probably give them more value than I do.
I'm not saying they're superior, but finishing 1st in scoring in 1895 (for example) should be more meaningful than a 21st in scoring in 1975 (for example)

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Originally Posted by Stalberg View Post
-Re: Janney. Abuse is fully within the rules of the game, there won't be any unecessary penalties required to keep a legendary soft player like him to the perimiter. I'm impressed by his playoff totals, but I can assure you he wasn't lining up against a Mike Ricci anchored, top 3 checking line, for the large majority of those.
Even if he was kept to perimeter, as a setup man he could still be very effective. While he made not have played against Ricci, I'm sure he saw a bunch of abuse as early 90s teams definitely had numerous tough players. Also, Henning wasn't overly physical and I'd like to see more evidence about L. Goldsworthy's phsyical play. They're all good defensively, but Ricci's wingers aren't crash and bang.

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07-27-2010, 05:37 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Stalberg View Post

I feel like something must be going way over my head with this WHA stuff, because dominance in that league has never impressed me and still doesn't the more I learn about the league.
Based on Gabriel Desjardin's equivalency formula:
http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/Resea...ivalencies.pdf

The formula is based on:
Quote:
To determine the quality of the AHL (or any other league), we can simply look at every player who spent year one in a minor league and year two in the NHL and compare their PPG averages. In other words, the league quality relative to the NHL is:
Quote:
As the WHA began to steal away top NHL draft picks, recruit more established NHLers, and sign skilled European players, it was almost as good as the NHL. It played a highprofile
1974 Summit Series against European teams. In 1977 and 1978, WHA teams played 47 exhibition games against NHL teams, posting a 28-13-6 record – though the Stanley Cup champion Montreal Canadiens declined to participate. It signed many future
NHL stars such as Wayne Gretzky, Mark Messier and Mike Gartner. But in 1979, the WHA was in serious financial trouble, and it “merged” with the NHL without everhaving the opportunity to pass its competitor.
The formula varies by year due to sample size, but if we use it roughly estimate:

Tardiff's three best WHA seasons would translate to
1976: 130 points (1st)
1977: 60 points (45th)
1978: 100 points (4th)
1979: 94 points (9th)

The sample size skews things too much in years due to small sample sizes in all but the last year. Both 76 and 77 defy logic because Tardif was neither as good as 1st nor as bad as 45th)
76 was based on 16 players, 77 on 10, 78 on 14, and 79 on 59 players. To me, it would seem that 79 is the most accurate formula because of the largest sample size.

A better way to analyze would be to average out the equivalency of the four years at 0.75 for a more balanced estimate. This results in:

76: 111 points (5th in league scoring)
77: 82 points (he missed about 20 games this season) (13th)
78: 116 points (4th)
79: 72 points (31st)

This seems realistic as he put up 68 points in the NHL in 1980, so the 72 projection of 79 seems about right.

Using the 0.75 formula for goals:
76: 53 goals (3rd)
77: 37 goals (10th)
78: 49 goals (3rd)
79: 31 goals (28th) (this number also speaks to the realism of the formula as he hit 33 goals in the 1980 NHL season)


Last edited by Hedberg: 07-27-2010 at 05:46 PM.
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07-27-2010, 11:46 PM
  #45
seventieslord
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Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
Blair has a top 2 in assists and a top 3 in points, is there a better 4th line play maker than him in the league??
Yes - Andre Boudrias.

Top assist-getters, 1929-1932:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...der_by=assists

Blair is 19th, with half as many as #2, Joe Primeau.

Top assist-getters, 1971-1975:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...der_by=assists

Boudrias is #9, and no one has twice as many as him... Orr is close.


















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Originally Posted by Hedberg View Post
Except average save percentages during Ranford's prime (1990-1995) were lower than during Kolzig's prime (1998-2004).
You are right, although it is pretty clear that even if those figures were "normalized" to league averages, Kolzig would come out on top.

In the playoffs, Kolzig has the top playoff sv% ever, but on the other hand, Ranford won a Smythe.

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Originally Posted by Hedberg View Post
And why exactly is Tardif unacceptable in "winning the puck"?

Montreal Gazette, March 2, 1972


Montreal Gazette, March 1, 1973


Montreal Gazette, February 22nd, 1973


Pittsburgh Press, April 12, 1976


Tardif was fast, decently tough, and in his early years worked the corners on Montreal's energy line before being the go to guy in his prime. The combination of him and the speedy Dolly Swift will be able to win pucks.


Bravo.

Tardif is clearly underrated here. I'll be giving him a serious look next MLD.

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07-27-2010, 11:51 PM
  #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hedberg View Post
I'd like to see more evidence about L. Goldsworthy's phsyical play.
Same... Bill Goldsworthy is physical, but I know nothing about Leroy... and I had him last time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hedberg View Post
Based on Gabriel Desjardin's equivalency formula:
http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/Resea...ivalencies.pdf

The formula is based on:




The formula varies by year due to sample size, but if we use it roughly estimate:

Tardiff's three best WHA seasons would translate to
1976: 130 points (1st)
1977: 60 points (45th)
1978: 100 points (4th)
1979: 94 points (9th)

The sample size skews things too much in years due to small sample sizes in all but the last year. Both 76 and 77 defy logic because Tardif was neither as good as 1st nor as bad as 45th)
76 was based on 16 players, 77 on 10, 78 on 14, and 79 on 59 players. To me, it would seem that 79 is the most accurate formula because of the largest sample size.

A better way to analyze would be to average out the equivalency of the four years at 0.75 for a more balanced estimate. This results in:

76: 111 points (5th in league scoring)
77: 82 points (he missed about 20 games this season) (13th)
78: 116 points (4th)
79: 72 points (31st)

This seems realistic as he put up 68 points in the NHL in 1980, so the 72 projection of 79 seems about right.

Using the 0.75 formula for goals:
76: 53 goals (3rd)
77: 37 goals (10th)
78: 49 goals (3rd)
79: 31 goals (28th) (this number also speaks to the realism of the formula as he hit 33 goals in the 1980 NHL season)
I think 0.65 is more accurate, based on nothing more that the same type of common sense approach you are using.

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07-28-2010, 12:48 AM
  #47
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
I think 0.65 is more accurate, based on nothing more that the same type of common sense approach you are using.
The problem with anything significantly lower than 0.75 is it gives Tardif a significant raise in points from his last WHA season to Quebec's first NHL season (where he put up 68 points in 58 games, a 1.17 points per game pace which would have given him 93 points over a full season, 12th in the league). I doubt he'd go from 62 equivalent points in 74 WHA games to 68 points in 58 NHL games. Because of this, I think the number of equivalency around 0.75 is pretty accurate. If anything, the numbers may suggest the equivalency was higher than 0.75 because going from 72 equivalent points in 74 WHA games to 68 points in 58 NHL games would show a significant resurgence in numbers that isn't overly common.

However, even if we went with the conservative 0.65 equivalency, he would have had a 4th in points, a 10th in assists, and a 7th and 8th in goals. At the middle ground of 0.70, he would have had a 4th and 8th in points and two 5ths in goals. Even with the low equivalencies suggested, at 0.65 he's at par with Goldsworthy (Goldsworthy would have had slightly better finishes in goals, but Tardif's 4th and 12th in points would close the gap considering Goldsworthy's best overall offensive seasons were 18th and 21st), at 0.70 he's better, and at 0.75 he's quite a bit better.


Last edited by Hedberg: 07-28-2010 at 12:55 AM.
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07-28-2010, 01:35 AM
  #48
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Stalberg, I read through your post, and the part I agree with most is that these posts take longer than you'd think they do. The unfortunate part about working a summer job is you get screwed with shifts, so I sadly haven't been able to have as much time as I'd like to post and respond either. I'm starting to think though that it is possible that I've got the wrong impression of Parise. Maybe he has more similarities to his ATD-checking-line-staple father than I've ever realized.

Anyways, I said I'd make another point and here it is: Florida has the better defense all things considered. Mainly though, Keith and McNamara are the two best defensemen in this series, and while I very likely might've missed it, I haven't seen St. Mary's counter to that. And I saw that bit about Tomas Jonsson; I like the guy, but he never had the peak that Keith did. The fact that we have home ice advantage makes this especially tough for the Huskies to overcome, IMO.

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07-28-2010, 08:46 AM
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Yes - Andre Boudrias.
So one?? I'll take that in a heartbeat.



Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Same... Bill Goldsworthy is physical, but I know nothing about Leroy... and I had him last time.

.

Ask and you shall receive

LOH

Quote:
Right-winger Leroy Goldsworthy was a fine two-way player on six different NHL clubs in the 20s and 30s. He was a tireless worker whose strength was consistency.
Quote:
Goldsworthy was a solid worker for the Blueshirts
Quote:
During the 1934 playoffs he was an important checker when the team won the Stanley Cup
Quote:
He later suited up for the Boston Bruins and New York Americans where he was a fine defensive player

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07-28-2010, 09:14 AM
  #50
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Originally Posted by Hedberg View Post
You're forgetting we have home ice. Not every shift will see my top line against the Ricci line. Also, you are putting too much emphasis on winning the puck. You assume the line has to win the puck every shift. Florida has superior puck movers in Keith, Halderson, Wilson, and McNamara (and Swift's rover experience also has him function as a puck mover). Florida is not a dump and chase team, but a team that can break into the zone. We have guys that can win the puck, but Florida is largely a puck possession team. If you have home ice and the better defence, it's easier for a team to control the pace of play.
Where is the proof regarding all of this??? You can just select older era players and assume based on high goal totals in smaller leagues automatically means they are great puck movers as well? This is starting to bother me. It seems like the logical theory for future ATD and MLD are to just draft all players pre 1920's and then find one random quote from a newspaper that we can base his entire play on. We have nothing negative to say about them because we've never seen them play, so its a win-win situation. We draft players like Yashin,Parise,Bure etc.. and everybody is so quick to jump on the negatives because we've all seen them play and there is a million more media sources on them.

It seems like a bit of a cop out when we have next to nothing on three of your top 6 forwards and three of your defenseman, and we can place so much value on such minimal information.

I have an SIHR account and when I see names like: Shirley Davidson, Norman Rankin, William Barlow and William Dobby finish ahead of Dolly Swift in scoring it really makes me shake my head. Swift had 4 seasons where he finished in top 15 in scoring why is this so impressive??



Quote:
Sergei Nemchinov is possible
So is he taking Jonathans spot? Im not sure what you mean by this.


I just googled Statistical smoke

Quote:
Based on Gabriel Desjardin's equivalency formula:
http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/Resea...ivalencies.pdf
Thats what it gave me.


It seems Ironic that we are rewarding Tardif for leaving the best league in the world to take more money in the WHA. 5 impressive seasons in the WHA beating out the likes of: Terry Rushkowski, Chris Bordeleau, and Rich Leduc for top 10's in scoring does not warrant such high praises.


Last edited by markrander87: 07-28-2010 at 09:41 AM.
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