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Penalty for guessing wrong in MMA pickem'

View Poll Results: Penalty for guessing wrong in the pickem' game?
Yes 8 66.67%
No 4 33.33%
Voters: 12. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
08-02-2010, 12:21 AM
  #1
northstarsforever
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Penalty for guessing wrong in MMA pickem'

Should there be a penalty for guessing wrong in the MMA Pickem' game? The rationale in the pickem' thread (opposed by nobody at the time) was to prevent guessing. So I'll leave it up to the people?].

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08-02-2010, 12:29 AM
  #2
northstarsforever
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For the record the guy who won the event picked all of the fights. I think picking more awards the bold.

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08-02-2010, 12:32 AM
  #3
kurt
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I don't think I'll take the time to participate if the reward is only for correct guesses. I've been too busy lately to get up to speed on who is even fighting on undercards, let alone who will win. No penalty awards the luckiest person with the most posts, not the person who is the best judge of talent.

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08-02-2010, 12:41 AM
  #4
cyris
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kurt View Post
I don't think I'll take the time to participate if the reward is only for correct guesses. I've been too busy lately to get up to speed on who is even fighting on undercards, let alone who will win. No penalty awards the luckiest person with the most posts, not the person who is the best judge of talent.
If your a good judge of talent you will have a much better prediction record than someone who just guesses.

Unless you think a good judge of talent can't beat a coin flip on average.

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08-02-2010, 12:43 AM
  #5
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I'm just going to copy/past my post from the MMA pickem thread to save time:


I am really not a fan of losing points for picking wrong. It doesnt encourage picking of close fights. Also it penalizes people for flukes like Hamill beating Jones via getting beaten half to death or horrible judges decisions like Shogun vs. Machida.

I understand that the goal is to try to stop people from guessing but why worry about that. If you are at all knowledgeable about the sport you should have a much better prediction record than someone who just guesses.

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08-02-2010, 01:05 AM
  #6
kurt
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True, I just thinks it rewards the most active participants more than it rewards the most accurate ones. There is an event virtually every week these days.

I don't think concerns about DQs and controversial decisions/stoppages are valid, though, as they are so infrequent they would have no significance, and because they are the official outcome of the fight.

The last format (which was widely participated in, but the host abandoned scorekeeping), was a tallied win-loss record, showing counts for wins and losses. Then a win percentage is available. Perhaps the best of both worlds, as total wins and percentages are available? No weighting for fights though, they're all worth the same amount.

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08-02-2010, 01:17 AM
  #7
cyris
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I dont mind the idea of some penalty just not one a severe as there is now. I think it just completely discourages picking in close events.
Bad judging or quick stoppages have become very common. It seems like every event we are arguing about one of those.

The only problem with a straight win loss percentage deciding things is it just encourages people to only pick the heavy favorites.
How about something like the current format with a win loss record acting as a tie breaker so accuracy does mean something.

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08-02-2010, 01:23 AM
  #8
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I have no problem with some one who doesn't know either fighter doing some research to make a decision. There is a ton of information available out there right now if you are willing to take the time to look at it.
Someone doing well because of straight guesses is annoying but also unlikely.

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08-02-2010, 01:29 AM
  #9
kurt
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I never said a "straight percentage," it was scoring just as a fighter's record is scored, total wins and losses. It just allows for a percentage to also be shown, to highlight the most accurate.

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08-02-2010, 01:41 AM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kurt View Post
I never said a "straight percentage," it was scoring just as a fighter's record is scored, total wins and losses. It just allows for a percentage to also be shown, to highlight the most accurate.
I think we are basically in agreement.
I like the idea of something to stop guessing but losing 2 or 3 points for picking a fighter in a close fight or by questionable loss ( bad/decision, early stoppage, DQ) just isn't right) I think winning % to break a tie is enough.

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08-02-2010, 02:59 AM
  #11
kurt
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Winning % is much more difficult to keep track of with this weighting concept, though.

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08-02-2010, 03:31 AM
  #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kurt View Post
Winning % is much more difficult to keep track of with this weighting concept, though.
If its being used as a tie breaker use straight %s.

With the weighed concept its not even the guessing that is going to cost people. The fights that people will be guessing on will be the undercard stuff for the most part and even if you are wrong its only 1 point. It's picking wrong on the higher point value events that will hurt. Picking wrong on a close main event could ruin some good predictions.

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08-02-2010, 10:29 AM
  #13
AndyPipkin
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I just like it because even if people are guessing, it keeps the people who aren't, honest. How many of us double and tripled checked our picks because of the thought of losing a point instead of just standing pat and not thinking about it.


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08-02-2010, 01:02 PM
  #14
northstarsforever
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So do we want to do wins and losses? I probably wouldn't mess up the standings as bad!

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08-02-2010, 01:07 PM
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by northstarsforever View Post
So do we want to do wins and losses? I probably wouldn't mess up the standings as bad!
Don't worry bro, I got your back.

We should be using that as tie breakers.

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08-02-2010, 03:49 PM
  #16
cyris
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With the current weighted format I don't think it even really discourages guessing.

Its the small 1 point fights people will guess on not the 2 and 3 point events. And its the losing of 2 or 3 points for the main card stuff that will really hurt people.

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08-02-2010, 04:02 PM
  #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyris View Post
With the current weighted format I don't think it even really discourages guessing.

Its the small 1 point fights people will guess on not the 2 and 3 point events. And its the losing of 2 or 3 points for the main card stuff that will really hurt people.
Well that's one reason I proposed making the prelims one point because I figured people would know less about the prelims.

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08-02-2010, 04:08 PM
  #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by northstarsforever View Post
Well that's one reason I proposed making the prelims one point because I figured people would know less about the prelims.
Yes but that way picking a close main event results in a 6 point swing one way or the other.
How often do we disagree with a judging decision or a stoppage. 1 bad call could cost you 6 points and ruin a good night of picks.

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08-02-2010, 04:10 PM
  #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyris View Post
Yes but that way picking a close main event results in a 6 point swing one way or the other.
How often do we disagree with a judging decision or a stoppage. 1 bad call could cost you 6 points and ruin a good night of picks.
Then as a group we can decide what to do about it on a case by case basis considering it doesn't happen that often.

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08-02-2010, 05:18 PM
  #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyPipkin View Post
Then as a group we can decide what to do about it on a case by case basis considering it doesn't happen that often.
It happens often enough. At least once every other event. and when it does I think you have to stick with the official outcome.

I'm not opposed to something to stop guessing but the current penalty is too harsh. In its current form I don't fell it really stops the guessing but does discourage the picking on close fights. Entirely the opposite of what was intended.

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08-02-2010, 05:20 PM
  #21
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You could just make the penalty one point per wrong guess, regardless of how many points a correct guess is worth for that fight.

e.g: pick the main event right, get 3 points, pick it wrong and get -1 point.
pick a prelim correctly, you get 1 point, pick it wrong and get -1 point.

That way the risk/reward for just blindly guessing a prelim fight is the worst, which makes sense since those are the ones where people would be most likely to just throw up guesses.

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08-02-2010, 05:30 PM
  #22
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^ Actually I don't mind that.

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08-02-2010, 05:30 PM
  #23
cyris
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Quote:
Originally Posted by colonel_korn View Post
You could just make the penalty one point per wrong guess, regardless of how many points a correct guess is worth for that fight.

e.g: pick the main event right, get 3 points, pick it wrong and get -1 point.
pick a prelim correctly, you get 1 point, pick it wrong and get -1 point.

That way the risk/reward for just blindly guessing a prelim fight is the worst, which makes sense since those are the ones where people would be most likely to just throw up guesses.
I wouldn't mind that. I just don't like the big 6 and 4 point swings on main event fights.
Are title fights worth more than regular main events? That would make the swing area even bigger.

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08-02-2010, 05:32 PM
  #24
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I will say what ever we decide the score for the first (UFC live 2) event should stay the same because the point format could have effected the way people made their picks.

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08-02-2010, 05:36 PM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyris View Post
I will say what ever we decide the score for the first (UFC live 2) event should stay the same because the point format could have effected the way people made their picks.
For sure. Lets get this hammered out before the 7th.

I think title fights are 5 points...I think...

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