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Ennis wins the Calder this season

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Old
08-10-2010, 12:30 PM
  #51
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Hope this is o.k. to post.
For what it's worth, Dobber has him at 28G, 41A, 69 points total, and the 2nd leading scorer on the team behind Roy.

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08-10-2010, 12:35 PM
  #52
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I think Ennis will start the season on the 3rd line with Nieds and Grier.

I expect Hecht-Connolly-Poms to remain together, and Stafford to be given another chance to nail down the "big" spot we need filled with Roy-Vanek.

Ennis will have the ability to take offensive chances with Nieds/Grier on his line. I also expect he will get plenty of PP time.

If Stafford fails, Ennis will be given that top 6 spot.

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08-10-2010, 12:40 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by static80 View Post

Is it a speculative projection? Of course, but there is no reason what so ever to believe he will miss games due to injury or that he could not maintain that pace and expand on it as the season progresses
Of course there's a good reason to believe he could not maintain that pace. Just look at the history or players breaking into the league. Young guys are prone to slumps as they adjust to the schedule, travel, and physicality of the league. You can chalk up a 16 game stint as riding on pure adrenaline of getting your first crack at the NHL. Doing it over 7 months and 82 games is a different beast.

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08-10-2010, 12:41 PM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
I think Ennis will start the season on the 3rd line with Nieds and Grier.

I expect Hecht-Connolly-Poms to remain together, and Stafford to be given another chance to nail down the "big" spot we need filled with Roy-Vanek.

Ennis will have the ability to take offensive chances with Nieds/Grier on his line. I also expect he will get plenty of PP time.

If Stafford fails, Ennis will be given that top 6 spot.
Very good point Jame, this is what I meant when I said "If The Stars Align".
I am basing my assumption on him starting in the top lines, and you are correct for pointing out that Hecht and Stafford may very well be the players up there.

This would knock my numbers way down. But, I am optimistic that Hecht will be on line 3 and Ennis on the wing with Connolly and Pomminville. I would also venture to think he could be with Vanek and Roy if a move for winger isn't made.

But, back to your point, very true indeed.

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08-10-2010, 12:56 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by LoveDaSwords View Post
http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...rder_by=points

Take with a grain of salt, I've noticed that sometimes they omit players who were Calder eligible but it wasn't their first season, but that should suffice for starters.
So, low-end 85 points, he'd be in the top 20. If he gets 95, he'll be in the top 10.

This thread redefines optimism.

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08-10-2010, 12:58 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
I've been reticent to start a thread about it... but i have the same feeling about Vanek. His play in the playoffs was a new level, and I think after being injured, he realizes that he has to play that way for an entire season...

I expect a return to 40 goal/80 pt dominant play.
I think he could be back in that neighborhood and whoever is playing with will benefit from it. I would expect Roy to see plenty of PP and ES time with him again, and if Ennis can fit in there, depending on who works on RW, he'll probably be both a beneficiary and contributor to the increase.

If they get consistent play out of their most expensive forward, it should open up the Hecht-Connolly-Pominville trio in that they likely won't face the first D pair, etc... Synergy offensively, regardless of a rise in size and obstruction, is possible. All they need is one guy to bounce back from a down year.

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08-10-2010, 01:03 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Chainshot View Post
It wouldn't surprise me to see a healthy Vanek pull himself and his linemates up a bit, back into the 70-80 point range for himself and Roy if he stays healthy and there isn't too much off-ice distraction with his wife being preggers again.
Hadn't heard about that. Well, I guess better a pregnant wife than a screaming infant waking him up at all hours. Though it's not like he can't afford good help.

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08-10-2010, 01:03 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by zbubble View Post
Of course there's a good reason to believe he could not maintain that pace. Just look at the history or players breaking into the league. Young guys are prone to slumps as they adjust to the schedule, travel, and physicality of the league. You can chalk up a 16 game stint as riding on pure adrenaline of getting your first crack at the NHL. Doing it over 7 months and 82 games is a different beast.
Stafford's final late season recall in '06-'07 is a prefect example. He threw up 11-11-22 in 22 games as a rookie -- lightening in a bottle, or so it has been shown.

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08-10-2010, 01:47 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by jlr View Post
Hadn't heard about that. Well, I guess better a pregnant wife than a screaming infant waking him up at all hours. Though it's not like he can't afford good help.
Twins. They already have one.

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08-10-2010, 02:49 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by static80 View Post
Well, thanks for the apology, considering I've played hockey for 35 years, been a season ticket holder for 21 years, have been to each of the Finals series home games Buffalo has had, including the Philly-Buffalo series of 75.
I think my hockey knowledge has an edge on yours.
And I make the prediction based on his numbers of last season with speculation if the line up stays healthy, hence the statement "If the Stars Align".

I still fail to understand why fans attempt some type of self stroking egotistical statements on "my hockey knowledge is better than yours".

Edit: I guess the reason fans don't think its possible is due to varying factors. He was a late 1st round draft pick, he's to small, he hasn't shown that kind of production up to this point (this one is completely false, at the NHL level he's shown just under this amount of production, albiet, in a brief stint with the club) or some other reasoning. Its merely opinion and I can respect that, but after watching young Mr. Ennis in Portland for a number of games (business takes me there from time to time) in conjuction with said short stint with the big club, it may be an outside shot of this many points, but not impossible.
As stated, after watching him play a good amount, to me in any event, "If the stars align", no matter how impractical, its plausible.
Besides, as a life long Sabres fan, given this teams record with off season moves, I need the injection of optimism.

Way to contradict yourself, Static.

Now, stop putting words into my mouth. I never said my hockey knowledge was "better than yours", but I do stand by what I said. Stating that 85 points for Ennis in his rookie year is plausible is just absurd. If you have watched as much hockey as you stated and if you have followed the NHL as long as you have said then you would realize that 85 points for an Ennis type player, or any rookie even, is just outrageous. How many 5'8 165lbs rookies have you seen in your life time come into their first NHL season (second pro) and score 85-95 points? That number is probably very small.

I do agree that he is a good player but I and probably most people who follow hockey, do not think he will be a top player in the NHL. Especially in his rookie season. With players like Hall, Seguin, Kadri, Schenn, Gudbranson, Sbisa, MPS, Eberle, Markstrom, Filatov, etc. possibly coming into the NHL next season I really find it hard to believe that Ennis will out-score/out-play the majority of these guys and win the Calder. I don't even see any of them scoring 60+ points in their rookie years. I don't know what you see in Ennis, but having watched him play on multiple occasions I do not believe he has star potential. He may be good, but he will never be a star in the NHL

EDIT: I was just looking into it and in Malkin's rookie season he had 85 points in 78 games at the same age as Ennis. So take that for what it's worth..


Last edited by smitty10: 08-10-2010 at 02:56 PM.
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08-10-2010, 03:03 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by smitty10 View Post
Way to contradict yourself, Static.

Now, stop putting words into my mouth. I never said my hockey knowledge was "better than yours", but I do stand by what I said. Stating that 85 points for Ennis in his rookie year is plausible is just absurd. If you have watched as much hockey as you stated and if you have followed the NHL as long as you have said then you would realize that 85 points for an Ennis type player, or any rookie even, is just outrageous. How many 5'8 165lbs rookies have you seen in your life time come into their first NHL season (second pro) and score 85-95 points? That number is probably very small.

I do agree that he is a good player but I and probably most people who follow hockey, do not think he will be a top player in the NHL. Especially in his rookie season. With players like Hall, Seguin, Kadri, Schenn, Gudbranson, Sbisa, MPS, Eberle, Markstrom, Filatov, etc. possibly coming into the NHL next season I really find it hard to believe that Ennis will out-score/out-play the majority of these guys and win the Calder. I don't even see any of them scoring 60+ points in their rookie years. I don't know what you see in Ennis, but having watched him play on multiple occasions I do not believe he has star potential. He may be good, but he will never be a star in the NHL

EDIT: I was just looking into it and in Malkin's rookie season he had 85 points in 78 games at the same age as Ennis. So take that for what it's worth..
Well, in all fairness, if I have to actually write the word "sarcasm" as many do in order for you to see it, then I guess its easy to see why you would come off the way you did in your original response, specifically the last statement in that response. Or are you just not going to acknowledge that and move along?

Either way it really matters not, you have your opinion (and thank you for posting it) and I have my own. As I have stated in the past, speculation on the future can be fun, once people get by the realization that its speculation, nothing more.

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08-10-2010, 03:20 PM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chainshot View Post
I think he could be back in that neighborhood and whoever is playing with will benefit from it. I would expect Roy to see plenty of PP and ES time with him again, and if Ennis can fit in there, depending on who works on RW, he'll probably be both a beneficiary and contributor to the increase.

If they get consistent play out of their most expensive forward, it should open up the Hecht-Connolly-Pominville trio in that they likely won't face the first D pair, etc....
It would also help Vanek's situation a lot if Ruff started finally giving him ice time befitting the team's best offensive player. I understand and generally agree with the premise that ice time should be earned based on effort and production but, at the same time, there's something to be said about playing your best players the most.

Ruff isn't afraid to use Roy and Pominville for 18-20 minutes per game so there's no reason IMO that he should still be limiting Vanek to 15-17 minutes per game. Roy, Connolly and Pominville all see PK minutes - and many other teams use their best offensive players in shorthanded situations as well. Ruff tried Vanek in very limited stints back in '07-'08 and '08-'09 in such but quickly gave up on the experiment. I suspect that being trusted in PK situations might actually make Vanek a more responsible defensive player on ES shifts as well.

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08-10-2010, 03:52 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SabresFanNorthPortFL View Post
85 points is a little unrealistic....

Again....if we go back to the wide open style, he will have a higher point total. If we stay in the defensive first style, his points will reflect it.

I'm excited about Ennis, I think he has the "juice" that some of our core are lacking. If Vanek returns to form (and guys like Myers and Ennis will have an impact on our core) Ennis will have a whopper of a year. I think Ruff will tweak our style to fit the strength of the team, reason why he had to reel in the team the last few years, because they didn't have the juice. Add in an Ennis, a motivated Vanek, a contract year Stafford (hope not) and he may open it up again.

My thoughts are that he hits 40-50 points, which would be a great year.
Although I'm also one of the doubters for this 85-95 point prediction, I do think Ruff will let Ennis be a bit more creative than some of the other forwards, even in his rookie year. I think Ruff sees how smart and talented this kid is. If he can stay healthy IMO he can be eons better than Roy or Connolly (and I'm actually a defender of the two).

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08-10-2010, 04:26 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by Sabretip View Post
It would also help Vanek's situation a lot if Ruff started finally giving him ice time befitting the team's best offensive player. I understand and generally agree with the premise that ice time should be earned based on effort and production but, at the same time, there's something to be said about playing your best players the most.

Ruff isn't afraid to use Roy and Pominville for 18-20 minutes per game so there's no reason IMO that he should still be limiting Vanek to 15-17 minutes per game. Roy, Connolly and Pominville all see PK minutes - and many other teams use their best offensive players in shorthanded situations as well. Ruff tried Vanek in very limited stints back in '07-'08 and '08-'09 in such but quickly gave up on the experiment. I suspect that being trusted in PK situations might actually make Vanek a more responsible defensive player on ES shifts as well.
I don't have any qualms with them rotating a few of their higher-skilled (and brittle) players out of PKing duty since they have high-energy players who can stick their feet in front of shots making considerably less scratch. I honestly would rather see them rotate in Niedermayer, McCormick and Kaleta on the PK to keep their best players fresher. It isn't like they're a bundle of short-handed scoring out there at the best of times. Go back to letting the plumbers plumb and letting the danglers dangle.

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08-10-2010, 04:31 PM
  #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by static80 View Post
Very good point Jame, this is what I meant when I said "If The Stars Align".
I am basing my assumption on him starting in the top lines, and you are correct for pointing out that Hecht and Stafford may very well be the players up there.

This would knock my numbers way down. But, I am optimistic that Hecht will be on line 3 and Ennis on the wing with Connolly and Pomminville. I would also venture to think he could be with Vanek and Roy if a move for winger isn't made.

But, back to your point, very true indeed.
Maybe we or some are misunderstanding. When you say low end is 85,a nd high end is 95. Eitherway thats if the stars align. right?

Maybe we should read it as, "if the stars align, based on his talent, staying healthy, playing top 3 minutes, vanek breaking out again, 90 points is doable."

If the stard DON'T align, then the low end is 35 points. He plays bottom 6 minutes. gets knocked around pretty bad. has an injury to miss 10 games.

or, is your ultimate low end really 85 points???

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08-10-2010, 04:42 PM
  #66
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if the Stars align, the Sabres can win the Stanley Cup...

what's the point of making predictions based on the least likely yet best possible outcome?

if the stars align tonight, I will drink a bottle of crown and still be able to please my wife.

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08-10-2010, 04:48 PM
  #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by static80 View Post
Based on who I see him playing with, I believe Ennis is in the strongest position of all rookies to garner the Calder for Rookie of the Year.

Whether he plays with Roy and Vanek or Connolly and Pomminville, I predict Ennis will have a fantastic season.

35 - 40 Goals
50 -55 assists

low side 85 points
high side 95 points

I don't know, but I really have a great feeling about having this talented young kid in the line up.

Thoughts?
Tough call to say he will be on the top line the entire season---

but I think a Hall-gagner-hemsky combo out of edmonton could be deadly and seguin getting top line minutes in BB could be in the running for calder. Ennis topped 90pts once in junior

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08-10-2010, 04:56 PM
  #68
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Here is my prediction of Ennis' production next season:

74 games played
16 goals
28 assists
44 points
+6
14 PIMs
16 PP Points

And to me that's a pretty solid rookie season. I wouldn't be mad at all with this kind of production or a little lower even.

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08-10-2010, 07:44 PM
  #69
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
if the Stars align, the Sabres can win the Stanley Cup...
"If the Stars align", the Sabres would not win the Cup - Dallas would, right?

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08-10-2010, 08:30 PM
  #70
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Originally Posted by Sabretip View Post
"If the Stars align", the Sabres would not win the Cup - Dallas would, right?
Good catch, but you're not allowed to say that around here. It was only 11 years ago, you know.

Holy ****, that was 11 years ago?!

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08-10-2010, 08:42 PM
  #71
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Originally Posted by Sabretip View Post
"If the Stars align", the Sabres would not win the Cup - Dallas would, right?
I don't know--a straight line doesn't seem to me a very sound strategy (offensive or defensive). A good team would just get right past them.

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08-10-2010, 10:01 PM
  #72
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Originally Posted by LoveDaSwords View Post
I don't know--a straight line doesn't seem to me a very sound strategy (offensive or defensive). A good team would just get right past them.
Then I guess they would look forward to playing the Leafs

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08-13-2010, 08:20 AM
  #73
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No more ludicrous than projecting him above 25 goals and 35 assists
I really believe he can do it, if the stars aline this season.
Ah, yeah, 90 points is more absurd than 60

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08-13-2010, 11:00 AM
  #74
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better chance of Vanek scoring more goals than Ennis has points than Ennis getting 85-95 points. Too much optimism, as pretty much everyone has stated.

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08-13-2010, 01:39 PM
  #75
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I will say that I have more optimisim in Ennis than a lot of people here. I think that IF he plays in the top 6 with Roy and Vanek, that 60 points (20-40) is a reasonable goal and a damn strong rookie season.

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