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First round picks over the last 10 years

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05-31-2004, 05:27 PM
  #1
guitaraholic*
 
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First round picks over the last 10 years

I personally think some of the users of this board drastically overrate the value and potential and likelyhood of prospects becoming NHLers of any worth. While I understand that this a Hockeysfuture and therefore the people that gravitate here tend to be overly fond of prospects and picks I figured some cold hard statistics might help temper the enthusiasm of many posters here as it pertains to prospects. So I figured I'd put some of this in statistical perspective: From the years 1990 - 1999, the last draft for which you can determine the development of the kids drafted, since it's 5 years later, I figured I'd look at the total number of first round picks and what percentage of them become legitimate NHLers.
By the way the precursor to this excercise was posted years ago at this very site by a very informed Bruins fan for whom I have a great respect but have since forgotten his username at the time. It was a great post the depth of which I will not attempt to duplicate.... So, here we go:
------------------
Year: 1990
Number of players drafted in 1stRd: 21

# of All Stars: 6 (Brodeur, Primeau, Jagr, Tkachuk, Nolan, D.Hatcher)

# of flops/busts: 12

# of decent/solid/good players: 4 (Nedved, Ricci, Sydor, Smolinski)

Percentages: Overall not so bad, of the 21 players drafted in the first round almost half have had solid NHL careers. 6 of which have been all stars on more than one occasion, one of which ranks among the top 3 at his position, all time (Brodeur) and one which could have if his head was screwed on straight (Jagr).

Biggest flops: 17th overall, Edmonton took Scott Allison. At 13 NY Rangers took Michael Stewart. Neither player ever played at the NHL level.

----------------------------
Year: 1991

# of players drafted in first Rd: 22

# of All Stars: 5 (Lindros, Niedermayer, Forsberg, Kovalev, Naslund)

# of flops/busts: 10

# of decent/solid/good players: 7 (Glen Murray, Martin Lapointe, Brian Rolston, Martin Rucinsky, Philippe Boucher, Dean McAmmond)

Biggest flop: At 17 Mtl. Canadiens took Brent Bilodeau. He has never played at the NHL level.

Percentages: Out of 22 players drafted 5 were "great" at one point or another. 10 were flops. The remainder were average (McAmmond) to better than average but not great (Glen Murray).

----------------------------
Year: 1992

# of players drafted in first Rd: 24

# of All Stars: 4

# of flops/busts: 16

# of decent/solid/good players: 5

Biggest flop: Many. Philly wins by picking the wasting the lowest (7th overall pick) on a total flop, Ryan Sittler. Vancouver (Polasek) and Detroit (Bowen) also drafted guys that never played in the NHL.

Percentages: Terrible first round. Of the 24 drafdted only 9 were worthwhile NHLers. 16 flops in the first round is brutal.

----------------------------
Year: 1993

# of players drafted in first Rd: 26

# of All Stars: 5 (give or take a couple of 'marginal' AS's like Kenny Jonsson, Jason Arnott. I counted Jason Allison, by the way.)

# of flops/busts: 14

# of decent/solid/good players: 7

Biggest flop: At 18 Calgary Jesper Mattsson.

Percentages: 14 of the 26 players taken in the first round were pretty much flops or mediocrities.

----------------------------
Year: 1994

# of players drafted in first Rd: 26

# of All Stars: 4

# of flops/busts: 18

# of decent/solid/good players: 4

Biggest flop: Geeez, where to start? Edmonton (Sather again) picked Jason Bonsignore at 4th overall. He sucked.

Percentages: From the 14th pick overall to Cloutier at 26th, each of the players selected were total flops at the NHL level. A terrible first round. 18 of 26 were non-factors at the NHL level.

----------------------------
Year: 1995

# of players drafted in first Rd: 26

# of All Stars: 7 (some questionable)

# of flops/busts: 12

# of decent/solid/good players: 7, give or take.

Biggest flop: What is with Edmonton? Anyway, at 6 overall Edmonton picked Steve Kelly. Great choice, Glen....

Percentages: Again, about half the players chosen turned out to be useless NHLers. This is the pattern that's emerging.

----------------------------
Year: 1996

# of players drafted in first Rd: 26

# of All Stars: 0

# of flops/busts: Geez.. just about all of them. At best 1996 offered some decent players in the first round, but no true All Stars. Guys like Zubrus, Marty Reasoner and, as close as we get to an All Star in this 1st rd draft, Derek Morris.

# of decent/solid/good players: Couple here and there. Morris, Reasoner, Zubrus, Marco Sturm (yes, I know, he's vastly underrated and an excellent support player...)

Biggest flop: Geez... At 4 Washington's Alexandre Volchkov apperas to be a total flop.

Percentages: Brutal a whopping 0% of these players became all stars. Terrible 1st rd.

----------------------------
Year: 1997

# of players drafted in first Rd: 26

# of All Stars: Oh, how about... 6 or 7. Hannan is still developing nicely as is Boynton.

# of flops/busts: 11

# of decent/solid/good players: 8 or so.

Biggest flop: At 6 Calgary selected Daniel Tkaczuk

Percentages: Again, about half the players selected where of little to no impact at the NHL level.

----------------------------
Year: 1998

# of players drafted in first Rd: 27

# of All Stars: 6 or so.

# of flops/busts: 7ish

# of decent/solid/good players: 14 or so. Excellent first round.

Biggest flop: Stop me if you've heard this one before... Edmonton took Michael Henrich 13th overall. At least Rico Fata has played at the NHL level, same with Jeff Heerema.

Percentages: Unusually sucessful first round. The best of the lot so far. 19 of the 27 players taken have had an impact at the NHL level or are beginning to.

----------------------------
Year: 1999

# of players drafted in first Rd: 28

# of All Stars: It's still early but it looks like only about 4 all stars from this class of first rounders: Jackman, Havlat and potentially Boynton and Ouellet but those are projected. You could argue the Jeff Jillson could still develop further and reach another level but... it's a stretch. Jackman and Havlat are clear all stars or at the All Star level in Jackman's case. As he's a defensive dman he's not likely to get voted to an All Star team but he'll perform at that level if his rookie year is any indication. Regardless....

# of flops/busts: Again, it's still a tad early to write off any of the players completely but a case can be made for the following players never becoming effective NHLers or what you'd expect from a first round pick: Tim Connolly, Pavel Brendl, Denis Shvidki, Jamie Lundmark, Scott Kelman, Luca Cereda, Mikhail Kuleshov, Barrett Heisten... some others qualify if those guys do, as well. Some are arguable, such as Connolly due to injuries.

# of decent/solid/good players: 8 or so.

Biggest flop: At 15 Phoenix selected Scott Kelman. You have chosen poorly.

Percentages: A pretty average overall draft although, again, it's still sort of early. Overall very few of the guys taken in the first round have proven to be what you'd desire from your first round picks. Only 2 of the players drafted in the first round that year have even sniffed All Star level competition, where they could have been named or played at that level, Jackman and Havlat. The rest are shaping up to be mediocre in most cases or are more questionable than probable. Rather ugly actually.


-----

Analysis: What this all adds up to is that half of the teams in this draft will walk away with total duds. In 4 or 5 years if the world as we know it and the NHL in particular are still around, we'll look back at this draft class and talk about the guys who didn't play a single NHL game and the 4th rounders that turned into All Stars.... to me, if I was a GM, I'd certainly not be inclined to give up a proven NHLer (I'm using Demitra as a test case) for a first round pick unless you had to for salary purposes.
Anyway, draw your own conclusions....

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05-31-2004, 05:56 PM
  #2
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A few things:

1. I've read several of your posts, enjoyed them. Welcome to HF.

2. I believe the Boston poster you refer to might be Michael Karlstrom, who sometimes calls himself The Alberta Bruin. Lots of terrific posters on that board.

3. It's always fun to watch others discover the hell that was being an Oilers fan in the 90s. "With their first round selection, the Edmonton Oilers are proud to pick a future cab driver, Smally Flopalot." The mind boggles. In the 1990 draft, no Oiler pick made the NHL. But we're still hoping! :lol

4. While I do agree that its a high risk pool, imo that just means the rewards are higher. That 1990 draft set NJ up for years to come, and your St. Louis Blues buggered themselves royally and still managed to draft pretty well in late rounds in the 90s. I think the draft shows brilliance and stupidity in equal parts.

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Old
06-01-2004, 12:19 AM
  #3
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thanks for the welcome, lowetide. I hope I can make the occasional worthwhile contribution.

Indeed it was/is Mr. Karlstrom to whom I alluded earlier. I'll look for his posts in the future.

You have my sympathies, as a draft-related suffering Blues fan, in regards to the, uhm, troubles that plagued the Oil during that particular period in your drafting history...

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06-01-2004, 12:40 AM
  #4
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Let me one up you. Here are the statistics for 1st round picks from 1963 (the draft's inception) until 1995 (my cut-off point).

First Round
Total Picks: 584
F: 373 (63.87% of total picks)
D: 184 (31.51%)
G: 27 (4.62%)

Total Busts (never make it to the NHL): 61 (10.45% of total picks)
F: 42 (7.19% of total picks, 11.26% of total F)
D: 16 (2.74%, 8.70% of total D)
G: 3 (0.51%, 11.11% of total G)

Average Games Played:
F: 479.5
D: 536.2
G: 283.6

Average Games Played by Non-bust draftees:
F: 540.3
D: 587.3
G: 319.1

Games Played distribution:
0-100 games played in the NHL: 145 (24.83% of total picks)
101-200: 39 (6.68%)
201-300: 38 (6.51%)
301-400: 33 (5.65%)
401-500: 38 (6.51%)
501-600: 60 (10.27%)
601-700: 55 (9.42%)
701-800: 44 (7.53%)
801-900: 40 (6.85%)
901-1000: 22 (3.77%)
1001+: 70 (11.99%)

Games Played distribution by F:
0-100 games played in the NHL: 100 (26.81% of total F chosen)
101-200: 24 (6.43%)
201-300: 20 (5.36%)
301-400: 21 (5.63%)
401-500: 20 (5.36%)
501-600: 41 (10.99%)
601-700: 30 (8.04%)
701-800: 34 (9.12%)
801-900: 23 (6.17%)
901-1000: 18 (4.83%)
1001+: 42 (11.26%)

Games Played distribution by D:
0-100 games played in the NHL: 38 (20.65% of total D chosen)
101-200: 10 (5.43%)
201-300: 14 (7.61%)
301-400: 9 (4.89%)
401-500: 14 (7.61%)
501-600: 18 (9.78%)
601-700: 24 (13.04%)
701-800: 9 (4.89%)
801-900: 16 (8.70%)
901-1000: 4 (2.17%)
1001+: 28 (15.22%)

Games Played by G:
0-200 games played in the NHL: 12 (44.44% of total G chosen)
201-400: 7 (25.93%)
401-600: 5 (18.52%)
600+: 3 (11.11%)

70 1000+ game skaters and 3 600+ game goalies. That's a little over 3 great players a draft. Not much when you think about it, but that's just a matter of perspective. SOme might think that's a lot. Only 10.45% never make it to the NHL - not bad, but a good chunk of those players didn't stay in the NHL.


Last edited by David A. Rainer: 06-01-2004 at 12:52 AM.
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Old
06-01-2004, 05:12 AM
  #5
PecaFan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guitaraholic
Year: 1990
Number of players drafted in 1stRd: 21

# of All Stars: 6 (Brodeur, Primeau, Jagr, Tkachuk, Nolan, D.Hatcher)
# of flops/busts: 12
# of decent/solid/good players: 4 (Nedved, Ricci, Sydor, Smolinski)
First of all, those add up to 22, not 21, so you only have 11 busts.

Second of all, I seriously have to question your categories. You have guys playing 6, 7, *800* games, and you call them busts!? Sorry, but that's just nuts.

1990 has only 3 actual busts: Scissons, Stewart, Allison. Antoski is close, perhaps a 4th, but since his career ended because of a car accident, I'd group him with Greig and Slaney into a category of bubble players, guys with long careers, up and down from the minors. Disappointments, sure. Grouping them into the "bust" category with Scissons, Stewart, and Allison is misrepresenting them, IMO.

The rest, Berehowsky, Kidd, Stevenson, May, and Dykhuis are all clearly in the decent/solid category. They've had good long careers in the league, are still playing, they easily qualify for NHL pensions etc, by no stretch of the imagination are they busts.

I agree with your basic premise, that prospects are overvalued here, but you're massively overstating the number of busts each year.

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06-01-2004, 09:01 AM
  #6
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My maths were aproximations, I thought I'd made that clear.... some busts, like Chad Kilger, who was a bust for a first round pick (I don't care if he's played 400+ games at the NHL level, nobody would have picked him in the first round again if they had a chance to do it over.... hence a 'bust.')

Do your own friggen' look at the draft instead of ripping on mine. How's that for a novel concept, chief?

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06-01-2004, 10:51 AM
  #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guitaraholic
Do your own friggen' look at the draft instead of ripping on mine. How's that for a novel concept, chief?

Just a tad touchy are we?

The guy was offering you some constructive criticism, calm down, don't take it so personal, Chief

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06-01-2004, 12:01 PM
  #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guitaraholic

Percentages: From the 14th pick overall to Cloutier at 26th, each of the players selected were total flops at the NHL level
Perhaps I am misunderstanding you, but are you saying that Dan Cloutier was/is a bust?

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06-01-2004, 03:45 PM
  #9
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I agree that prospects are frequently overvalued and I appreciate the research of posters here on this thread, but everybody is missing one important aspect...

Nobody thinks their prospects are going to be the ones that bust.

Its clearly true that half the first rounders of any given year aren't going to amount to much when you look back, but unfortunately hindsight only comes when you already know what happened.

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06-01-2004, 04:29 PM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PecaFan
First of all, those add up to 22, not 21, so you only have 11 busts.

Second of all, I seriously have to question your categories. You have guys playing 6, 7, *800* games, and you call them busts!? Sorry, but that's just nuts.

1990 has only 3 actual busts: Scissons, Stewart, Allison. Antoski is close, perhaps a 4th, but since his career ended because of a car accident, I'd group him with Greig and Slaney into a category of bubble players, guys with long careers, up and down from the minors. Disappointments, sure. Grouping them into the "bust" category with Scissons, Stewart, and Allison is misrepresenting them, IMO.

The rest, Berehowsky, Kidd, Stevenson, May, and Dykhuis are all clearly in the decent/solid category. They've had good long careers in the league, are still playing, they easily qualify for NHL pensions etc, by no stretch of the imagination are they busts.

I agree with your basic premise, that prospects are overvalued here, but you're massively overstating the number of busts each year.
I disagree with your reasoning. IMO, you're talking about 1st round picks. If Dykhuis was taken in the 5th round, and turned into a 6/7th d-man, that's one thing. But when you are a 1st round pick and turn into a bad back-up goaltender (Kidd) or marginal 4th liner or 6/7th d-man, that's a bust. Hey, I like Steve Dubinsky, but if he was a 1st rounder, the picks a bust IMO.

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06-01-2004, 07:56 PM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beukeboom Fan
I disagree with your reasoning. IMO, you're talking about 1st round picks. If Dykhuis was taken in the 5th round, and turned into a 6/7th d-man, that's one thing. But when you are a 1st round pick and turn into a bad back-up goaltender (Kidd) or marginal 4th liner or 6/7th d-man, that's a bust. Hey, I like Steve Dubinsky, but if he was a 1st rounder, the picks a bust IMO.
Not every first round pick can be a star. That's completely unreasonable. 30% of first round picks never make it (using the <200 GP standard), so picking a guy who turns out to be a useful 3rd or 4th liner or backup goalie is still an ok pick. Obviously, a lot depends on where in the round he was picked as well. Getting a 3rd liner from the top 5 is clearly worse then getting a 3rd liner from the bottom 5 picks.

I think if you asked most fans what a "bust" was, they'd say it was a guy who never made the NHL, not one who simply never lived up to the hype.

That's the whole point here, these guys are over-hyped and expectations are too high from the beginning. Every first rounder drafted gets "future Steve Yzerman" or "future Scott Stevens" attached to them. So the Kidd's and Dubinsky's are a disappointment, because they don't live up to that.

The reality is that they were never that good in the first place. They should have been tagged as "future backup goalie", and "future plumber".

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06-01-2004, 08:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beukeboom Fan
I disagree with your reasoning. IMO, you're talking about 1st round picks. If Dykhuis was taken in the 5th round, and turned into a 6/7th d-man, that's one thing. But when you are a 1st round pick and turn into a bad back-up goaltender (Kidd) or marginal 4th liner or 6/7th d-man, that's a bust. Hey, I like Steve Dubinsky, but if he was a 1st rounder, the picks a bust IMO.

I totally disagree. Just because someone is drafted in the first round, and becomes "only" a role player, does not make them a bust. A bust is a player that never makes it to the NHL for any period of time. Kidd for example cannot be considered a "bust."

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06-01-2004, 08:29 PM
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Peca wrote: ''Not every first round pick can be a star. That's completely unreasonable. 30% of first round picks never make it (using the <200 GP standard), so picking a guy who turns out to be a useful 3rd or 4th liner or backup goalie is still an ok pick. Obviously, a lot depends on where in the round he was picked as well. Getting a 3rd liner from the top 5 is clearly worse then getting a 3rd liner from the bottom 5 picks.''

You are damn right Peca. Precisely right.

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06-01-2004, 08:33 PM
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Great post and a fun read..............the prospect game is a dangerous one for sure......................well there is one thing I can take for certain from that post besides some picks turn into busts!
JUST DON"T LET GLEN SATHER MAKE THE PICK FOR U!
Damn he has a horrible draft record..............glad i'm a Rangers fan :mad:

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06-01-2004, 10:05 PM
  #15
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Like Lowtide, I too am an Oiler fan who has had to live with the immortal words 'The Edmonton Oilers are proud to select...'

Kim Issel (big man, little game)
Peter Soberlak (did someone say 'sober up' it's our pick?)
Jason Soules (highest drafted hockey player on the Hamilton Fire Department)
Scott Allison (needed a shoulder to cry on or at least to play with)
Joe Hulbig (passed the grade against high school kids)
Jason Bonsignore (aka the tin man)
Michel Riesen (like the chocolate only softer)

However I would like to do a throw out to our rivals, the Calgary Flames. I still remember when they picked The Hockey New's prospect 'the Swedish Wendel Clark' with their first pick in 1991. No pressure...

Niklas Sundblad Right Wing
Born Jan 3 1973 -- Stockholm, Sweden
Height 6.02 -- Weight 203 -- Shoots R
Selected by Calgary Flames round 1 #19 overall 1991 NHL Entry Draft

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06-02-2004, 01:05 AM
  #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Behind Enemy Lines
Michel Riesen (like the chocolate only softer)

I think The Hockey News called Riesen the "Swiss Miss"

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06-02-2004, 07:36 AM
  #17
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Some of you have a point in that guitaraholic is using the word 'bust' pretty freely, but I think he simply means that those players were bad picks for the 1st round.

Whether we're nitpicking at the wording he uses or not, the underlying theme of his his post still applies... A good portion of 1st rounders don't reach their potential.


Last edited by degroat*: 06-02-2004 at 04:32 PM.
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06-02-2004, 11:20 AM
  #18
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Right on Stich!! As a CBJ fan we have no room for

first round selections that go on to be great 3rd/4th liners, or solid backup goalies.

Certainly the history of the drafting team has a considerable amount to do with the pressure put on 1st round picks. Small market, new franchise teams better pick the right guy. Maybe that means you Pick Ladd (considered more proven), than Radulov (huge upside- but with ?) - but you better not whiff on the pick..

It kills me to look at the Jackets and see guys like Scott LaChance who was the 6th pick in the first round. Ouch..


Last edited by LetsGOJackets!!: 06-02-2004 at 11:57 AM.
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06-02-2004, 11:26 AM
  #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stich
Some of you have a point in that guitaraholic is using the word 'bust' pretty freely, but I think he simply means that those players were bad picks for the 1st round.

Whether we're nitpicking at the wording he uses or not, the underlying theme of his his post still applies... A good portion of 1st liners don't reach their potential.
thank you, Stich, that is exactly what I was doing. I appreciate you pointing that out.

And I don't care what anyone says, Trevor Kidd in the first round is a "bust." So is Chad Kilger.

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