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How many kids on the farm do you thnnk will make it?

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Old
05-31-2004, 07:48 PM
  #1
Lowetide
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How many kids on the farm do you thnnk will make it?

and by "make it" I mean turn into NHL players who have at least 3 seasons as regulars. Like, if Shawn Horcoff decided to play lacrosse and retired from the NHL today, he would have been a fairly regular player over a 4 year period (3.5 actually). I'd say he made it at some level.

For the purposes of this, let's cover only 2000-2004 and we'll assume that Hemsky and Semenov have not made it, since neither has completely established themselves yet. Remember, a GOOD draft is considered to be two players making it.


2000
Alexei Mikhnov
Brad Winchester
Alexander Ljubimov
Lou Dickenson
Paul Flache
Shawn Norrie
Joe Cullen
Jason Platt
Evgeny Muratov

2001
Ales Hemsky (130gp)
Doug Lynch (2gp)
Eddie Caron
Kenny Smith
Jussi Markkanen (69gp)
Jake Brenk
Mikael Svensk
Dan Baum
Kari Haakana (13gp)
Ales Pisa (53gp)

2002
Jesse Niinimaki
Jeff Drouin Deslauriers
Jarret Stoll (72gp)
Matt Greene
Brock Radunske
Ivan Koltsov
Jonas Almtorp
Glenn Fisher
Mikko Luoma (3gp)
JF Dufort
Patrick Murphy
Dwight Helminen
Tomas Micka
Fredrik Johansson

2003
MA Pouliot
Colin McDonald
JF Jacques
Mishail Joukov
Zach Stortini
Kalle Olsson
David Rohlfs
Dragan Umicevic
Kyle Brodziak
Matthieu Roy
Jozef Hrabel
Troy Bodie


I know it's early, especially for the last two draft years.

Having said that, who do you think will make it in the NHL from this list?

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05-31-2004, 07:55 PM
  #2
mamettt
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
and by "make it" I mean turn into NHL players who have at least 3 seasons as regulars. Like, if Shawn Horcoff decided to play lacrosse and retired from the NHL today, he would have been a fairly regular player over a 4 year period (3.5 actually). I'd say he made it at some level.

For the purposes of this, let's cover only 2000-2004 and we'll assume that Hemsky and Semenov have not made it, since neither has completely established themselves yet. Remember, a GOOD draft is considered to be two players making it.


2000
Alexei Mikhnov
Brad Winchester
Alexander Ljubimov
Lou Dickenson
Paul Flache
Shawn Norrie
Joe Cullen
Jason Platt
Evgeny Muratov

2001
Ales Hemsky (130gp)
Doug Lynch (2gp)
Eddie Caron
Kenny Smith
Jussi Markkanen (69gp)
Jake Brenk
Mikael Svensk
Dan Baum
Kari Haakana (13gp)
Ales Pisa (53gp)

2002
Jesse Niinimaki
Jeff Drouin Deslauriers
Jarret Stoll (72gp)
Matt Greene
Brock Radunske
Ivan Koltsov
Jonas Almtorp
Glenn Fisher
Mikko Luoma (3gp)
JF Dufort
Patrick Murphy
Dwight Helminen
Tomas Micka
Fredrik Johansson

2003
MA Pouliot
Colin McDonald
JF Jacques
Mishail Joukov
Zach Stortini
Kalle Olsson
David Rohlfs
Dragan Umicevic
Kyle Brodziak
Matthieu Roy
Jozef Hrabel
Troy Bodie


I know it's early, especially for the last two draft years.

Having said that, who do you think will make it in the NHL from this list?
Difficult question, because so much depends on injuries/coaching/work ethic which lowe and others have little control over.

I'd say hemsky, semenov, lynch, stoll, rita (with us or with another organization, probably with someone else), delauries, greene, woywitka and pouliot, barring injury, will all play more than 250 games in the NHL. I know that's saying a lot, but each player has the talent, but more importantly, the work ethic to be here. I think work ethic plays a huge role in a player's development. I really do. Talent can bring you only so far.

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Old
05-31-2004, 07:56 PM
  #3
Vyse64
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Alexei Mikhnov
Ales Hemsky
Doug Lynch
Jussi Markkanen
Jeff Drouin Deslauriers
Jarret Stoll
Matt Greene
Zach Stortini

would like to name Niinimaki and Pouliot too but i can't right now

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Old
05-31-2004, 07:58 PM
  #4
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2000
Alexei Mikhnov (only thing holding him back is coming over to N.A)
Brad Winchester (I think with how big he is and the style he could play he'll have a future as a fourth liner for us)

2001
Ales Hemsky (to much skill)
Doug Lynch (could be here next year)
Jussi Markkanen (isn'the already an established backup?)

2002
Jesse Niinimaki (he's kind iffy. IMO he'll either be REALLY good or will be nothing at all)
Jeff Drouin Deslauriers (with our goaltending situation he's gonna have LOTSA chances)
Jarret Stoll (He's out future Mike Peca - captain/third line checker/above average scoring)
Matt Greene (how many teams want a really gritty strong Dman? EXACTLY)

2003
MA Pouliot (see Niinimaki, except more likely to make NHL, not as high ceiling IMO)
Colin McDonald (see Winchester - Lowe loves these types)
Kyle Brodziak (how can you leave him off the list after last year? a 2nd/3rd liner)

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Old
05-31-2004, 08:58 PM
  #5
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Sober reality check courtesy of THN Draft Preview which features a study of the 4,136 players drafted by NHL teams between 1979 and 1995. The results are as follows:

55% never played a game in the NHL
24% played less than 200 games
(79% did not succeed as NHLers)

15% turned out to be average NHLers

4% turned into star players
2% turned out to be a superstar player
(6% developed into star or superstar players)

Here is my take and guess about Oiler prospects and who might make it and their projected upside.

2000 Predicted Upside
Alexei Mikhnov - 2nd line winger but tick-tock (time is running out)
Brad Winchester - 4th liner fringe player
Alexander Ljubimov
Lou Dickenson
Paul Flache
Shawn Norrie
Joe Cullen
Jason Platt
Evgeny Muratov

2001 Predicted Upside
Ales Hemsky (130gp) 1/2 line winger.
Doug Lynch (2gp) 3/4 defenseman.
Eddie Caron
Kenny Smith
Jussi Markkanen (69gp) (I don't count overage Europeans)
Jake Brenk
Mikael Svensk
Dan Baum
Kari Haakana (13gp)
Ales Pisa (53gp)

2002 Predicted Upside
Jesse Niinimaki 2-4th line centre. hindered by injury.
Jeff Drouin Deslauriers #1 goaltender.
Jarret Stoll (72gp) 2nd line centre (but most likely 3rd line).
Matt Greene 3/4 defenseman.
Brock Radunske
Ivan Koltsov
Jonas Almtorp
Glenn Fisher
Mikko Luoma (3gp)
JF Dufort
Patrick Murphy
Dwight Helminen
Tomas Micka
Fredrik Johansson

*2003 Predicted Upside
MA Pouliot 2 line centre
Colin McDonald 3/4th line winger
JF Jacques 3/4th line winger
Mishail Joukov
Zach Stortini 3/4th line winger
Kalle Olsson
David Rohlfs
Dragan Umicevic
Kyle Brodziak 2-4 line centre
Matthieu Roy
Jozef Hrabel
Troy Bodie

*We'll have a clearer picture of 2003 draft picks following 04/05 season.

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Old
05-31-2004, 08:58 PM
  #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
and by "make it" I mean turn into NHL players who have at least 3 seasons as regulars. Like, if Shawn Horcoff decided to play lacrosse and retired from the NHL today, he would have been a fairly regular player over a 4 year period (3.5 actually). I'd say he made it at some level.

For the purposes of this, let's cover only 2000-2004 and we'll assume that Hemsky and Semenov have not made it, since neither has completely established themselves yet. Remember, a GOOD draft is considered to be two players making it.


2000
Alexei Mikhnov
Brad Winchester
Alexander Ljubimov
Lou Dickenson
Paul Flache
Shawn Norrie
Joe Cullen
Jason Platt
Evgeny Muratov

2001
Ales Hemsky (130gp)
Doug Lynch (2gp)
Eddie Caron
Kenny Smith
Jussi Markkanen (69gp)
Jake Brenk
Mikael Svensk
Dan Baum
Kari Haakana (13gp)
Ales Pisa (53gp)

2002
Jesse Niinimaki
Jeff Drouin Deslauriers
Jarret Stoll (72gp)
Matt Greene
Brock Radunske
Ivan Koltsov
Jonas Almtorp
Glenn Fisher
Mikko Luoma (3gp)
JF Dufort
Patrick Murphy
Dwight Helminen
Tomas Micka
Fredrik Johansson

2003
MA Pouliot
Colin McDonald
JF Jacques
Mishail Joukov
Zach Stortini
Kalle Olsson
David Rohlfs
Dragan Umicevic
Kyle Brodziak
Matthieu Roy
Jozef Hrabel
Troy Bodie


I know it's early, especially for the last two draft years.

Having said that, who do you think will make it in the NHL from this list?

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Old
05-31-2004, 10:24 PM
  #7
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2000
-nobody

2001
hemsky, lynch, markkanen

2002
JDD, stoll

2003
pouliot

and to be honest im not really all that sold on pouliot at all

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Old
05-31-2004, 10:35 PM
  #8
windowlicker
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jadeddog
2003
pouliot

and to be honest im not really all that sold on pouliot at all
I really hope our scouts prove everyone wrong about last year. We could have had Parise & O'Sullivan instead of Pouliot, McDonald & JF Jacques. Which group would make you, as an Oiler fan, feel better about the future?.
Although personally, I am high on Pouliot.

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05-31-2004, 10:40 PM
  #9
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It's unfair to throw O'Sulli in the mix. 28 other teams besides the Wild and Oilers could have had him. He was still available until pick 56.

I'm not going to judge Parise and Pouliot so soon. Atleast give MA time to prove the Oilers made the right choice.

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Old
05-31-2004, 10:42 PM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by windowlicker
I really hope our scouts prove everyone wrong about last year. We could have had Parise & O'Sullivan instead of Pouliot, McDonald & JF Jacques. Which group would make you, as an Oiler fan, feel better about the future?.
Although personally, I am high on Pouliot.
yeah i would like nothing more than to be proven wrong about pouliot, lol..... GOD PLEASE LET ME BE WRONG!!! and please let parise not be as good as so many people seem to think he will be, cause it will bother me for years to come..... *cough* doan *cough*

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Old
05-31-2004, 10:43 PM
  #11
windowlicker
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zamboni
It's unfair to throw O'Sulli in the mix. 28 other teams besides the Wild and Oilers could have had him. He was still available until pick 56.
Of course alot of other teams passed on him, but we didnt have to. Then again, Im not paid for my ability to evaluate hockey talent & intangibles, so as much fun as it is to second-guess a teams draft record, Im probably not qualified to call someone on a possible mistake.

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Old
05-31-2004, 10:43 PM
  #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by windowlicker
I really hope our scouts prove everyone wrong about last year. We could have had Parise & O'Sullivan instead of Pouliot, McDonald & JF Jacques. Which group would make you, as an Oiler fan, feel better about the future?.
Although personally, I am high on Pouliot.
Please don't remind me... or Getlaf, Anthony Stewart. Gulp, here's hoping.

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Old
05-31-2004, 11:20 PM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by windowlicker
I really hope our scouts prove everyone wrong about last year. We could have had Parise & O'Sullivan instead of Pouliot, McDonald & JF Jacques. Which group would make you, as an Oiler fan, feel better about the future?.
Although personally, I am high on Pouliot.
There were 16 teams ahead of Edmonton that could have drafted Parise. Why is it that only Edmonton gets criticized? Is it just me or is Parise overrated and Pouliot underrated.

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Old
06-01-2004, 01:18 AM
  #14
Cerebral
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemsky83
There were 16 teams ahead of Edmonton that could have drafted Parise. Why is it that only Edmonton gets criticized? Is it just me or is Parise overrated and Pouliot underrated.
I agree.. I still think Pouliot has the chance to end up being a great NHL'er. There is no way to judge Parise vs Pouliot until both have had a couple seasons in the NHL..

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Old
06-01-2004, 02:05 AM
  #15
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I'd bet on it:

2001 - Ales Hemsky (130gp)
2001 - Jussi Markkanen (69gp)
2001 - Doug Lynch (2gp)

2002 - Jeff Drouin Deslauriers
2002 - Jarret Stoll (72gp)
2002 - Matt Greene

2003 - Kyle Brodziak

Probably:

2003 - MA Pouliot

Maybe:

2001 - Mikael Svensk
2002 - Jesse Niinimaki


I wouldn't be shocked:

2000 - Joe Cullen
2000 - Jason Platt

2001 - Dan Baum
2001 - Kenny Smith

2003 - Colin McDonald
2003 - JF Jacques
2003 - Zach Stortini
2003 - David Rohlfs


If I thought about it too long I'd pull all my hair out:

2000 - Mikhnov

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Old
06-01-2004, 03:15 AM
  #16
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Is Lowe interested in trading Mikhnov or Niinimaki? What do you think is their trade value?

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06-01-2004, 04:19 AM
  #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prucha73
Is Lowe interested in trading Mikhnov or Niinimaki? What do you think is their trade value?
Maybe the only team who would offer decent value for Mikhnov is the Rags since Sather drafted the kid - maybe a swap of draft position in the first round???

It's a no-win situation for us with Mikhnov because if the kid blossoms then his transfer price will be outlandish - if he stagnates then he's not worth it. Niinimaki isn't going anywhere because his value has been hammered by the shoulder injury.

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06-01-2004, 09:04 AM
  #18
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2003
Brodziak was a great pick. He'll make it as a PK specialist and good 3rd liner (at center or on the wing) but will need 2 years in the minors first.

Pouliot will make it as a 2nd line center.

2000
Mikhnov will continue playing in Russia. If I was his agent I'd certainly encourage him to stick with the 500K-1M bucks and the low taxes rather than risk jumping to NA only to be in Toronto for 80K. Given that, not a single 2000 draftee will ever be an NHL regular. Terrible draft.

2002
The class of 2002 will be decent. Stoll, Delauriers, Greene and even Helminen IMO as a role player and checker (which the Rangers need up front), will play over 250 games. Niinimaki, will be another bust IMO.

2001
Hemsky and Lynch. It was a good draft for overage players, Pisa and Haakana were decent fillers on defense and we all know about Jussi.

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06-01-2004, 10:43 AM
  #19
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The following is that list with the number of games I think they will play in the NHL.

2000
160< - Alexei Mikhnov (too easy for him to go back to Russia after he learns how hard the NHL is)
160< - Brad Winchester (4th line mucker with size)
040< - Joe Cullen (up for a cup of coffee)


2001
400+ - Ales Hemsky (the real deal)
400+ - Doug Lynch (with no question marks coming up in regards to his play the only question here is whether or not he will be a #2 or a #7)
200+ - Jussi Markkanen (but not because he lacks talent)
040< - Mikael Svensk (up for a cup of coffee)
040< - Dan Baum (up for a cup of coffee)


2002
200< - Jesse Niinimaki (see Mikhnov)
200+ - Jeff Drouin Deslauriers (will get lots of chances - question is whether he is a back-up or a 1st string)
400+ - Jarret Stoll (the real deal)
200+ - Matt Greene (see Lynch)
040< - Brock Radunske (up for a cup of coffee)


2003
MA Pouliot - saw him play and I think he will be a player
Colin McDonald - too hard to say right now
JF Jacques - too hard to say right now
Zach Stortini - too hard to say right now
Kyle Brodziak - too hard to say right now



YKOil

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Old
06-01-2004, 11:16 AM
  #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asiaoil
Maybe the only team who would offer decent value for Mikhnov is the Rags since Sather drafted the kid - maybe a swap of draft position in the first round???

It's a no-win situation for us with Mikhnov because if the kid blossoms then his transfer price will be outlandish - if he stagnates then he's not worth it. Niinimaki isn't going anywhere because his value has been hammered by the shoulder injury.

Sather did not draft him, he was with the Rangers at the time.

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Old
06-01-2004, 11:21 AM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prucha73
Sather did not draft him, he was with the Rangers at the time.
Yes he did choose him.

Lowe's first ever draft pick was Hemsky in 2001

Mikhnov was drafted in 2000 by Sather as his final 1st round pick for the Oilers.

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06-01-2004, 11:28 AM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by s7ark
Yes he did choose him.

Lowe's first ever draft pick was Hemsky in 2001

Mikhnov was drafted in 2000 by Sather as his final 1st round pick for the Oilers.
Sather was with the Rangers in 2000, check your facts.

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06-01-2004, 11:34 AM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by s7ark
Yes he did choose him.

Lowe's first ever draft pick was Hemsky in 2001

Mikhnov was drafted in 2000 by Sather as his final 1st round pick for the Oilers.
It was the Fraser scouting regime that drafted Mikhnov... which is why you are thinking it was Sather.

Sather had just left the Oilers and joined the Rags then. So while you aren't correct technically speaking, it was the Sather crew that inputted the decison, and Lowe's first draft with his guys wasn't until the Hemsky pick in 01.

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06-01-2004, 11:39 AM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prucha73
Sather was with the Rangers in 2000, check your facts.
And at draft time he had been with the rags what, 2 weeks?

It was in the middle of the transition.

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06-01-2004, 11:39 AM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone
It was the Fraser scouting regime that drafted Mikhnov... which is why you are thinking it was Sather.

Thanks dawg. Lowe has always said he considers his first pick to be Hemsky, I got messed up there.

Lowe did make the choice but it was with the old Sather crew's info that he did it. Likely Sather had some input on drafting Mikhnov before he left.

But either way I would prefer not to trade either Niinimaki or Mikhnov right now. We have no need to move then as they aren't highly sought after and wouldn't bring back a huge return, but both of them has 1st line potential and I think we should wait and see what happens when/if they do come over to NA.

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