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What are 1st round picks really worth? (Beta)

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Old
08-26-2010, 11:16 PM
  #26
Nasty Nazem
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Voodoo Child View Post
Ex-****ing-actly!

People are so dumb, so dumb so dumb...they are so dumb.

A Crosby or Ovechkin comes along every 15 years

A Malkin or Doughty comes along about every 6-7 years.

Backstrom-Toews-Stamkos types are around every 3 or so years.

First round picks are valuable of course, but your 27th overall pick, if your close, can be traded for help because chances are the player you pick up isn't as good as the player it will fetch.

I heard some fools say Lucic was worth a mid first at the moment. That may be his market value, but if I'm PC I don't trade him for that, same with people wanting Kulemin shipped out for a mid 1st when he was struggling to be resigned.

I know this is a prospect-oriented site, but get the **** real...
But at the time when they are prospects, a lot of them are viewed as top line potential or top 6 potential, especially 1st rounders. Some of turn out well and some of them don't. You never know which one you're going to get. I mean you can trade Kulemin for a 15th overall pick and there is a 22% chance he becomes a 1st liner, better than Kulemin or 55.5% chance he busts. Most trades are usually gambles.

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Old
08-26-2010, 11:29 PM
  #27
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Amazing man, did you do this all yourself? Puts everyone into a nice comparable perspective. (although a few things such as worst player could be different)

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Old
08-26-2010, 11:50 PM
  #28
Buddio
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Gratz on the sticky, proud to say I was first to post in this Epic thread

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Old
08-27-2010, 12:22 AM
  #29
Tombernack
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Thats some fine work. Well done.

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Old
08-27-2010, 12:43 AM
  #30
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Excellent work, that was a very informative read.

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Old
08-27-2010, 12:46 AM
  #31
hotpaws
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Good work .

The bad part is i'd take 6 maybe 7 players out of the 9 you listed at the 2nd pick over Kessel .

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Old
08-27-2010, 01:23 AM
  #32
Finnish your Czech
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omg, this is an awesome thread. You deserve epic reputation for this sir.

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Old
08-27-2010, 02:40 AM
  #33
Leaf Rocket
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Absolutely Marvelous Great job vodoo, unbelievable work!

My only query was why put myers over little, I am a bigger fan of Myers than Little but still little has been more of a stud for the past two years.

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Old
08-27-2010, 04:11 AM
  #34
Starpainter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Voodoo Child View Post
As this is the Beta version, all I'd really like is to find a good image hosting site for the graphs so I could put them in the post, and maybe make the spacing look a little better.

http://imgur.com

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Old
08-27-2010, 10:33 AM
  #35
zapy
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Interesting info, but you should do a thread "How late of draft picks are the red wings players?"

Also I find it interesting that players never reach their potential untill at least a few years.

We should give Schenn, and Kadri some time to develop.

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Old
08-27-2010, 10:36 AM
  #36
theTTC
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Well done. This should be for the whole board though, not in Leafland. It's just too embarrassing, 'cause we've f***ed up royally since drafting Wendel. And Burkie is keeping the tradition alive (at least until 2012)!

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Old
08-27-2010, 10:44 AM
  #37
Mogwai
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This is mighty impressive.

Having these details breaks my heart a little bit more though...

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Old
08-27-2010, 10:47 AM
  #38
IBeL13f
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theTTC View Post
Well done. This should be for the whole board though, not in Leafland. It's just too embarrassing, 'cause we've f***ed up royally since drafting Wendel. And Burkie is keeping the tradition alive (at least until 2012)!
If we end up being as bad as the pessimists think we will be, at least we'll be able to draft Martin Frk in a couple years

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Old
08-27-2010, 12:25 PM
  #39
Voodoo Child
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http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=813603

Thank you Starpainter for that hosting site, the graphs are in. Thanks to everyone else for their input and corrections. I'm hoping people at least post in the thread, but if not, at least they can see it.

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Old
08-27-2010, 03:37 PM
  #40
htpwn
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Very nice

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Old
08-27-2010, 04:25 PM
  #41
Buddio
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You can add Lashoff now.

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Old
08-27-2010, 04:27 PM
  #42
Voodoo Child
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buddio View Post
You can add Lashoff now.
He's in there, 22nd Overall.

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Old
08-27-2010, 11:18 PM
  #43
cupcrazyman
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Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem View Post
Seguin has a 33.3% chance of being a superstar.

Nice detailed post.
& a 66.6 % of not becoming a superstar.

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Old
08-28-2010, 08:16 AM
  #44
Up the Irons
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Voodoo Child View Post
Ex-****ing-actly!

People are so dumb, so dumb so dumb...they are so dumb.

A Crosby or Ovechkin comes along every 15 years

A Malkin or Doughty comes along about every 6-7 years.

Backstrom-Toews-Stamkos types are around every 3 or so years.

First round picks are valuable of course, but your 27th overall pick, if your close, can be traded for help because chances are the player you pick up isn't as good as the player it will fetch.

I heard some fools say Lucic was worth a mid first at the moment. That may be his market value, but if I'm PC I don't trade him for that, same with people wanting Kulemin shipped out for a mid 1st when he was struggling to be resigned.

I know this is a prospect-oriented site, but get the **** real...
in Oil country, people are suggesting trading Hemsky for a 1st rounder. At best they'd get a mid range pick which would probably be no better the Hemsky is right now. Hemmer is a proven serviceable 1st liner. Unless they are worried about resigning him they may as well stick with him.

moral: proven players are better than picks later than 10th overall.

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Old
08-28-2010, 09:12 AM
  #45
bash
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Nice job, OP. Very informative post.

If you're interested in stuff like that, Scott Cullen from TSN did a similar one (though not as detailed as yours) last year: http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/scott_cullen/?id=267960. He went with groupings of draft picks (i.e. 1-5, 6-10, etc) to determine average value, but he also went down to the later rounds. Pretty interesting stuff.

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Old
08-28-2010, 10:51 AM
  #46
Voodoo Child
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RustE View Post
in Oil country, people are suggesting trading Hemsky for a 1st rounder. At best they'd get a mid range pick which would probably be no better the Hemsky is right now. Hemmer is a proven serviceable 1st liner. Unless they are worried about resigning him they may as well stick with him.

moral: proven players are better than picks later than 10th overall.
The Oil shouldn't trade Hemsky period, let along straight for a pick. If he's traded at all, it's for a young, high-potential center and a pick (ie - Frolik + 3rd).

Part of the reason for this thread was the constant 'lolzolzolzolzol, teh leefs gave up teh futur 4 Kesel lolzolzolzol!'. The way I see it is like this;

2010 2nd overall - Tyler Seguin

If anything he equalizes the trade, will probably end up a better player than Kessel.

2010 32nd overall - Jared Knight

2000-2008 32nd overall picks (in order): Tomas Kurka, Derek Roy, Janos Vas, Ryan Stone, Dave Bolland, Tyler Plante, Carl Sneep, Brett MacLean, Slava Voynov

Look at that...an undersized 70-point center, 40 point center, a bunch of busts, a decent defensive prospect and a good forward prospect.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Jared Knight has nice hands and drives the net well, but you think for a second that NHL-sized defenders let him pull that in the pros? 50 point upside at BEST.

2011 1st round pick - ???

Basically this is it; if that pick is anything lower than 6th overall, even if it's 7th, you'll have Bruins fanboys in here calling Burke an idiot and pessimists saying the sky is falling...but unless that pick is like 3rd overall, and the trade ends up Seguin, Knight and Duncan Siemens (supposing) for Kessel...it's actually quite an even trade.

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Old
08-28-2010, 11:47 AM
  #47
oilsands
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Nice post,

Just a question to the OP:

Don't you think that you should have picked the period of 1st round picks from 1995 - 2005? Anyone picked in the last 3 years or show have not really given an opportunity to show what they are made of.

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Old
08-28-2010, 11:52 AM
  #48
Voodoo Child
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saskyoil View Post
Nice post,

Just a question to the OP:

Don't you think that you should have picked the period of 1st round picks from 1995 - 2005? Anyone picked in the last 3 years or show have not really given an opportunity to show what they are made of.
I actually considered it, but seeing how far scouting has come in the last few years (especially Euro scouting...note the drop off after 10 before the lockout) and that 2008 was such a tremendous draft, I wanted the list to have a recent feel.

I actually emailed the original document to a guy who posted in the version of this thread on the main board because he's apparently compressing all of the data from 1979-2010 into a post like this, though I have no idea of when to expect it.

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Old
08-29-2010, 12:00 PM
  #49
Up the Irons
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voodoo: '..but unless that pick is like 3rd overall, and the trade ends up Seguin, Knight and Duncan Siemens (supposing) for Kessel...it's actually quite an even trade'

i concur. It is more likely that Seguin is a little bit better than Kessel than considerably better. He will probably be something like Kopitar. Kopitar for Kessel? not bad.

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Old
08-29-2010, 09:19 PM
  #50
Robbler
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I don't agree with the first overall.

Rick Nash, IMO, is the better first overall. He has been on a ****** Jackets squad for nearly a decade and Crosby's been on a stacked team compared to Nash.

Shero has done a good job finding decent linemates to play with Crosby, and Nash still seems to be the only one doing **** in Columbus.

HATERS GONNA HATE.

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