Based on what? To score 35 goals with a S% of 12, you need to take 292 shots.
Do you know how many seasons Cammalleri has been on pace for 292 shots?
One. Just one. The year he took 299 shots, scored on 11.4% of them and tallied 34 goals.
-Cammy had 26 goals in the 56 games he played before his injury during the regular season. Prorate that over 82 games and that's 38 goals.
-The year before last he had 39 goals in 81 games.
-2 years before that he had 34 goals in 81 games.
The only games I'm eliminating over his last 4 seasons are an injury plagued 2007-2008 season, the 9 games last year when he came back from injury and was clearly not himself, and on the other side of the coin I'm not including his playoff where he scored at 56 goal per 82 game pace.
Outside of his rookie year, a healthy Cammalleri has proven himself to be good for 35 or so goals during the regular season. And there is no reason to think that should change.
Take it personally? Get a hold of yourself. Seriously, I mean, grow up dude.
The stuff people come up with when their 'analysis' process gets questioned.
For a mod you have quite a tendency to put words into people's mouths. Blasphemous? Come on.
Don't I have a right to find it odd, because the difference is small at best between the two? With all the whining about opinion, people often forget that if one is entitled to an opinion, than others are entitled to contradict that opinion. If you can't handle that, what the friggin hell are you doing here? How hypocritical it is to accept any opinion, but not the opinion that contradicts another opinion?
warning, warning, don't fall into the trap of pretending to know the "tone" I'm using, like so many have wrongfuly said before. I say all this with a great big smile on my face (like every friggin second I pass on this forum) because I love talking about hockey, so any pretense of "oh, you're taking this oh soooo seriously" is just childish and avoids taking in the arguments I bring forth.
Also, Kessel's career high is 36. Cammy is 39.
You say 26 in 65, yet he got those 26 goals in the 55 games before his injury. Kessel's only full season was his rookie season, whereas Cammy has played more full seasons, and in the full seasons, he was usually close to 40 goals (35 and 39).
Yet most people chose Kessel, yet most stats (injuries, GPG) show they both can score at about the same pace and that injuries will be a main factor to seperate the two.
As if I mind people chosing Kessel... sigh
People should at least recognize how close it could get between the two (like H10H did).
Cammy just scored 13 in 19 in the playoffs. If he was a player on any other team, you can betcha people here on the Habs board would be expecting him to at least reach 45 this season, because it is often like that. The great exploits of any player from any other team usually become the sudden norm, but when it,s a Habs player.. well it was just a great sequence that probably will never be repeated.
Also, I'd like to add that, having seen both play a lot, I would say Kessel has a better shot and is a bit quicker on his feet, but Cammy is much more dynamic scorer, who has more ways to score than Kessel, IMO.
I apologize as I agree, looking back I did put words in your mouth by exaggerating the stance on the matter, but do you not agree you have done the same thing when you say I don't accept your opinion and insinuate I can't handle when someone disagrees with mine. I never said it wasn't possible for Cammalleri to score more than Kessel nor did I even say you're wrong. Yeesh...back to work.
First off, the 45 goals I mentioned are an example. He could theoriticaly score 45 goals, just like Kessel could. The could also score less. It was to show how when players are on other teams, people here often predict more than for their own.
The Lee Stempniak example is hilarious because he's a player that had ONE good sequence in his career, whereas Cammy has had many sequences that were as good or better.
Stempniak never reached 39, hell, he didn't even reach 34, never even reached 30 goals.
Cammy scored 34 goals on a 11.4 shot percentage, so your argument about shot % is feeble at best. The different in 5 goals more is very realistic and reachable for Cammy and the difference in shot % to reach it is flimsical.
Also, you say his career average for shot% is 11.4. That's untrue. It is 12.3. He has had as many seasons over 14% than seasons under 14%. So saying I'm wrong based on predicting his shot percentage is laughable.
The fact that you see him have no more than 30 goals shows your pessimism towards him, as he had 26 in 65, 17 games to score 4 goals more?? And that's not considering he had 26 in 55 BEFORE his injury. Funny how you say Cammy's numbers were an anomoly, yet he's had many similar sequences in his career, including last season.
In all likelyhood, his potential average since reaching his prime is close to 35 goals. Reaching 40 is far from being delusional.
1. I never stated Cammy's career shooting percentage was 11.4%. I stated that during his 34 goal season, Cammy had a shooting percentage of 11.4 and took 299 shots. When I calculated how many shots Cammy would need to get 35 goals, I used 12%. I did say his norm was around 11%. A norm is different from an average though.
2. What "sequences" are you talking about. I don't want to hear you whining about how Stempniak's "sequence" was his only good one and how Cammalleri has many more "sequences" and how last year there was a "sequence" when he was injured. None of that stuff matters to me. Every player is going to have ups and downs during the season. You don't judge a player by the downs or the ups, but by the season in total.
3. I said Cammalleri's playoff numbers last year were an anomaly vis a vis his standard numbers to show that anyone who's expecting 40+ goals from him based on that will probably be disappointed. You didn't disprove that, only talked about his numbers last season, which aren't relevant to his playoff numbers. So unless you're going to show that he will somehow continue to shoot 22%, like he did in the playoffs...
4. Cammalleri has had 5 season under 14% and two over. For all intents and purposes though (i.e. ignoring his first two seasons where he didn't play much), he's had 4 under 14% and one over. Your math is wrong.
5. 30 goals isn't pessimistic at all.
Let's have fun!
Shots:
Let's ignore Cammalleri's first 4 years in the league. The first two his shot totals were extremely low. In the 3rd and 4th, he shot lower than usual and higher than usual.
So we're left with his last 3 years, which should be fairly representative of the number of shots he takes nowadays.
210 + 255 + 218 = 683/(63+81+65) = 3.27 shots per game
3.27 * 82 = 268 shots a year
Percentage:
Again, we drop the first two years of his career because they're not reflective of who he is today. We drop the outliers (his years of 9.0% and 15.3% shooting). And we come out with around 11.9% shooting.
.119 * 268 = 32 goals
So you see, I'm not being completely unreasonable by suggesting he might only score around 30 goals. If he plays 'normally' (and doesn't get hurt), he'll get 32ish.
If he starts becoming a puck hog and shooting the lights out and/or has a great year where his S% is well above what it usually is, then yes he could hit 40 goals like some people like to think. But I wouldn't bet on it. I'll take the reasonable route and suggest around 30
Cammalleri might score fewer goals, but I will wager he will score more key goals, the tying or winning goal and such. He's better at coming up big than Kessel and that's why I would take him. I'm expecting close to 40 based on Cammalleri's ability to work with Pleks, if AK takes off with the two as well on their line, I'd say he'll hit 40+. That line is explosive when AK's into it.
Has no one taken the two most obvious variables that directly affect both players stats?
1. Centermen
2. Power play and its components
1. Pleks >>> leafs # 1 center
2. Habs PP >>>> Leafs PP
3. Components of PP (Especially Markov and Subban) >> Leafs components of PP (Kabs is better than subban but I wouldn't put him above markov)
Wrong. If he were a player on any other team, they'd be just as delusional to think he'd reach 45 goals. Cammalleri's performance in the playoffs was nothing more than an anomaly. He shot 22% in the playoffs, well above his career norm of around 11%.
It was no more an anomaly than Cammalleri's 12 games goalless streak just before the playoffs. This cold streak was preceded by a 6 goals in 6 games streak before he was injured.
Goal scorers often score in bunches. It just so happened that Cammalleri got on a very hot streak in the playoffs and was on a very cold streak after coming back from injury.
Also, I'd like to add that, having seen both play a lot, I would say Kessel has a better shot and is a bit quicker on his feet, but Cammy is much more dynamic scorer, who has more ways to score than Kessel, IMO.
Quoted for Truth.
Anyone who has studied Kessel's game is aware that his primary weapon is going full speed on the right side, pressure the left defenseman, curl and drag and shoot top shelf which ever side is covered less. He plays LW on the powerplay but does not possess a one-timer anywhere near the caliber of Cammy's, he tends to try to cut towards the top of the circle and shoot again, top shelf.
Cammalleri is a far more diversified player. He does not have the top end foot speed Kessel does, and his release isn't nearly as quick on the snap/wrist shot but his slap shot is more dangerous and clearly his one-timer (Cammy is elite in today's NHL for his one-timer). Other things Cammalleri does better then Kessel is he back-checks harder, he competes much harder in the corners and the front of the net for pucks.
If team's adapt to Kessel's "fainte de prediction", his totals will suffer. He's not overly creative IMO. That being said, I think he will flirt around the 40 goal mark if he plays 80ish games this year. Cammalleri, I see finishing with about 36.
However if I had to choose which one to have on my team given the salary, I'd still take Cammalleri. Kessel would be a welcome addition on my team any day though.
Kessel is one of the most overrated players on these boards. He was acquired by the leafs, for a ridiculous price that no one else in the world would pay. Just because they paid that much for him doesn't make him a star. Talk to me when he carries a team on his shoulder and scores 50 goals then we'll talk.
Cammy by a long shot and I hope he does this -----> to Kessel
I have this feeling that for the first time in some years some of our habs players will be inline for some nominations at the awards. The three that I keep thinking about are PK for rookie of the year .I think if a couple d men have off years and or injuries and it being a contract year and maybe one of his last ....I think Markov if our pp can be close to #1 this year , might be in line for Norris nominations. And the third would be a lil bit of a long shot but I have this odd feeling that if he can stay hot for long periods of time Cammalleri might be in the running for the Rocket Richard Trophy. He had a very slow start last year, if I remember correctly scoring his first goal like in game 10or so into the season. I also like the fact that somtimes JM will throw out Cammalleri on the ice with the 3rd or 4th line for an extra shift. And finally I been watching some of the playoff games from this last run and I noticed that the Markov pass through the crease to the right side for a cammalleri one timer (in the past was to kovalev) seemed to be working a lot better then if had been during the regualr season.
According to one poster on HF Kessel isn't even real, so how could he score more goals than Cammy who is, in fact, real?
On to more important questions. Will Santa put up more assists than Markov this year?
that's me
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yarfangor
Kessel is one of the most overrated players on these boards. He was acquired by the leafs, for a ridiculous price that no one else in the world would pay. Just because they paid that much for him doesn't make him a star. Talk to me when he carries a team on his shoulder and scores 50 goals then we'll talk.
Cammy by a long shot and I hope he does this -----> to Kessel
.......
Kessel is actually one of the most under-rated players in the NHL.
If I were to chose who will/has the best chance to score 50 goals first, cammy or kessel, i would place good money on Kessel.
And this with the opinion of "Cammy had better line-mates"
Did you know that in the last two seasons Kessel is 14th in the NHL for goals scored?
That he is the 2nd youngest player to be in that top 15 over the last two seasons? (stamkos being the youngest)
Did you know he has a better gpg then Stamkos? Or was just 18 goals behind Crosby and Kovalchuk? And just 1 goal behind E.Staal?
This while going through cancer, shoulder surgery, and like all habs fans say playing on the worst team of the league (for half those 2 years though)
He has more goals then anybody in his draft class? Including Jordan Staal, Toews, Backstrom?
-----------------------------------------------
Kessel @ Age 21 > 36 Goals (0.51 GPG)
Cammy @ Age 21 > 9 Goals (0.29 GPG)
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Kessel @ Age 22 > 30 Goals (0.42 GPG)
Cammy @ Age 22 > 20 Goals (0.48 GPG) In The AHL
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Cammy didn't score 30+ until he was 26. Kessel did it at 21
Who knows what kind of numbers Kessel will be putting up by the time he's 26 which generally is when players start hitting their prime.
proving my point, kessel is the exact opposite of over-rated.
If he plays 'normally' (and doesn't get hurt), he'll get 32ish.
.......
