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Old
06-04-2004, 10:16 AM
  #26
speeds
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asiaoil
There is not a lot of difference between #3 and #15 IMHO. Sure some guys have a bit more raw talent - but all of them are second tier talents that have deficiencies (eg size, speed, attitide, goal scoring ceiling). This is not like 2002 where you had 4 clearly elite players and a team (Tampa) who was willing to deal.

So none of the #3-#14 players will likely address our real need which is elite talent at all positions.
I might generally agree, except on Olesz who I really like, but that is just my personal opinion, and it doesn't seem like many people have him up with the top 2 this year.

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06-04-2004, 10:16 AM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speeds
What happens when 3 years from now 2 of those guys are busts, 2 have been traded away, and only 2 are left?

There's no way of knowing what the future holds, if you have a D at the top of your list there is no reason to not take him just because it SEEMS like the future D looks good, at the moment.
I don't know. Lowe knows defense and I think he will be very hesitant to move one of these d-men, MAYBE Brewer is salary concerns get out of control but I still am optimistic about him.

I can see us moving Smith, Staois, Cross and Ulanov but I don't see us moving the young guys unless they don't pan out.

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06-04-2004, 10:18 AM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speeds
What happens when 3 years from now 2 of those guys are busts, 2 have been traded away, and only 2 are left?

There's no way of knowing what the future holds, if you have a D at the top of your list there is no reason to not take him just because it SEEMS like the future D looks good, at the moment.
Exactly... I mean the defenceman we pick today isn't going to be stuck on the farm behind a bunch of guys. He'll be a little bit away from joining Toronto, and Toronto still has 2 or 3 guys who can easily be replaced on their blueline for a young up and comer.

The only position you really have to be concerned about is goaltending, as there are only 6 spots in an organization. Drafting a good goaltender every 2-3 years is a decent strategy, but good forwards and defencemen you simply don't pass up.

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06-04-2004, 10:20 AM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by s7ark
I don't know. Lowe knows defense and I think he will be very hesitant to move one of these d-men, MAYBE Brewer is salary concerns get out of control but I still am optimistic about him.

I can see us moving Smith, Staois, Cross and Ulanov but I don't see us moving the young guys unless they don't pan out.
It all depends on what the new CBA brings... I mean completely hypothetically speaking if Tampa offered Richards for Semenov and Wyowitka, it's a trade Lowe should be making.

You never know what other teams may come knocking on your door with. The stable is full now, but you never know.

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06-04-2004, 10:32 AM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone
It all depends on what the new CBA brings... I mean completely hypothetically speaking if Tampa offered Richards for Semenov and Wyowitka, it's a trade Lowe should be making.

You never know what other teams may come knocking on your door with. The stable is full now, but you never know.

I guess that is a valid point. But while we value these guys quite a bit, Outside of the Oilers you don't hear a lot of people screaming about Matt Greene or Lynch.

I don't see those guys being specific targets of other teams until they reach the NHL. I think they all could be NHL capable but none of them have names like Coburn or Phaneuf and weren't super high draft picks.

But the point is taken, anything CAN happen

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06-04-2004, 11:16 AM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by s7ark
I guess that is a valid point. But while we value these guys quite a bit, Outside of the Oilers you don't hear a lot of people screaming about Matt Greene or Lynch.

I don't see those guys being specific targets of other teams until they reach the NHL. I think they all could be NHL capable but none of them have names like Coburn or Phaneuf and weren't super high draft picks.
No but as of right Now Lynch is a heck of a lot more proven than either Phaneuf or Coburn... you'd be suprised at how many teams would jump all over Lynch if he was available. He had a damn good first season in the AHL by anyone's standards which to me is more important than where you were picked.

Lynch needed next to nothing in terms of adjustment time, and that is practically unheard of. You aren't hearing about him because of exactly why you said... he wasn't a high pick, and not a lot of people watch AHL games.

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06-04-2004, 11:29 AM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone
No but as of right Now Lynch is a heck of a lot more proven than either Phaneuf or Coburn... you'd be suprised at how many teams would jump all over Lynch if he was available. He had a damn good first season in the AHL by anyone's standards which to me is more important than where you were picked.

Lynch needed next to nothing in terms of adjustment time, and that is practically unheard of. You aren't hearing about him because of exactly why you said... he wasn't a high pick, and not a lot of people watch AHL games.

True I am very excited about Lynch. making the all star team as a rookie is quite an accomplishment. I hope he can keep that same high level of play up in the NHL when he makes the jump

He looks like a player

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06-04-2004, 12:38 PM
  #33
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One other thing that might change a bunch of stuff is that there are rumblings about Phoenix being interested in Montoya(personally I wouldn't take him top 6, but that is me.).

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06-04-2004, 12:47 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by George Bachul
One other thing that might change a bunch of stuff is that there are rumblings about Phoenix being interested in Montoya(personally I wouldn't take him top 6, but that is me.).
That's intersesting, because I could very well see him being there at #14.

Would the #14 & #25 picks plus a guy like Rita or Chimera land the #6 pick? Is that overpaying? Is it worth it to move up 8 spots to maybe have a crack at someone like Andrew Ladd or Robbie Schremp?

Could be an interesting draft day for us.

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06-04-2004, 02:03 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryno
That's intersesting, because I could very well see him being there at #14.

Would the #14 & #25 picks plus a guy like Rita or Chimera land the #6 pick? Is that overpaying? Is it worth it to move up 8 spots to maybe have a crack at someone like Andrew Ladd or Robbie Schremp?

Could be an interesting draft day for us.
If Phoenix really wants Montoya, they aren't going to risk dropping 8 spots to get him, it's too much. Plus, I don't like the thought of giving up 2 first round picks to move up. Something nice will be available at 14, likewise with 25. Don't forget, if the pickings are slim at 14 from an Oilers POV, other teams might not view it the same way and the Oilers could snag something nice at that spot.

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06-04-2004, 04:42 PM
  #36
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I'm pretty sure Phoenix won't take Montoya. They're pretty high on LeNeveu, and there's always next year (and the year after) if they want another top goalie in their system. Not to mention, goalies are pretty easy to find these days. Look at Buffalo's situation with Biron, Miller and Noronen. One will eventually be moved. Tukonen, Olesz, Ladd and Picard are probably more what the Yotes are looking for. They would have to be VERY interested in Montoya to not take a forward IMO.

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06-04-2004, 08:50 PM
  #37
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If Phoenix does want Montoya, look for them to trade somewhere in the lower top ten.

I don't think it will be any lower than #11, because that is L.A.'s pick, and they are very low in the prospect goaltending department and are one of the most likely team's in to draft a goaltender that early.

So if Phoenix is really high on Montoya, they would most likely trade down, but probably not out of the top ten.

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06-04-2004, 09:06 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemsky4PM
I'm pretty sure Phoenix won't take Montoya. They're pretty high on LeNeveu, and there's always next year (and the year after) if they want another top goalie in their system. Not to mention, goalies are pretty easy to find these days. Look at Buffalo's situation with Biron, Miller and Noronen. One will eventually be moved. Tukonen, Olesz, Ladd and Picard are probably more what the Yotes are looking for. They would have to be VERY interested in Montoya to not take a forward IMO.
I am quoting an article...I think there is a link on the main board.

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06-04-2004, 10:32 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speeds
I might generally agree, except on Olesz who I really like, but that is just my personal opinion, and it doesn't seem like many people have him up with the top 2 this year.
I think Olesz may be a whole lot like Pouliot frankly - and we've got one already

As for Meszaros and Smid - sure they have talent but at least one of these two guys, Green, Valabik and Fransson will still be around at #25. I would certainly not use #14 to draft any of them.

Here is an interesting comparison to Chipchura - Dave Scatchard. If Chipchura can be a big, fast skating, hard hitting, defensively aware 20 goal 2nd/3rd line guy - I would take him in a New York minute. We could really use that kind of player to work with Stoll (2nd/3rd line C) Niinimaki/Pouliot (1st/2nd line C) and maybe another big guy like Winchester (4th line C).

If the following came true this month I would be one happy guy:

1 - take Chipchura with #14 and Dubnyk with #25

2 - obtain a young sniping winger like Havlat or Gagne for a package of existing roster players and prospects (time to make a quantity for quality deal)

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06-04-2004, 11:23 PM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asiaoil
I think Olesz may be a whole lot like Pouliot frankly - and we've got one already
I know it's a "just kidding" comment, but in all seriousness one could easily make a case that Pouliot is the best prospect in the system, so I'll take another of those. And IMO Olesz is a better prospect than Pouliot.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Asiaoil
As for Meszaros and Smid - sure they have talent but at least one of these two guys, Green, Valabik and Fransson will still be around at #25. I would certainly not use #14 to draft any of them.
I wouldn't complain if in the 1st 2 picks, EDM ended up with 2 of those players (except probably Fransson who I'm not a big fan of, from the little I've read)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Asiaoil
Here is an interesting comparison to Chipchura - Dave Scatchard. If Chipchura can be a big, fast skating, hard hitting, defensively aware 20 goal 2nd/3rd line guy - I would take him in a New York minute. We could really use that kind of player to work with Stoll (2nd/3rd line C) Niinimaki/Pouliot (1st/2nd line C) and maybe another big guy like Winchester (4th line C).
I kind of look at Chipchura as a Mike York kind of player, for some reason. Not necessarily in style, but in overall team impact. More physical perhaps, less skilled.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Asiaoil
If the following came true this month I would be one happy guy:

1 - take Chipchura with #14 and Dubnyk with #25.
depending, of course, on who else is available, I probably agree except that I think EDM can land as good a goalie with their 2nd rounder, and if they feel the need for a goalie at 25 there are probably 2 I like better than Dubnyk (Shantz and Schneider). But that is merely my personal opinion, probably wrong, and I clearly haven't done near the scouting the Oilers staff has.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Asiaoil
2 - obtain a young sniping winger like Havlat or Gagne for a package of existing roster players and prospects (time to make a quantity for quality deal)
OTT won't deal Havlat, IMO.

PPG players in the NHL last season: 11 (min 50 games played)

Havlat was one of them, the 2nd youngest to Kovalchuk.

As for gagne, not sure what EDM can offer that would be worth Gagne. Depth? they already have that.

I agree with the idea, it certainly wouldn't hurt (though I might target a C), but I don't like the odds of picking up either of the 2 players mentioned.

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Old
06-04-2004, 11:45 PM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speeds
I wouldn't complain if in the 1st 2 picks, EDM ended up with 2 of those players (except probably Fransson who I'm not a big fan of, from the little I've read)
I'd personally be thrilled if the Oilers got Fransson with the Philly pick (I'd rather have him than Valabik). One more year in Sweden or the AHL, and he'd be dangerously close to NHL-ready, from what I've read.

Either way, I'd probably save the goalie for at least the 2nd round.

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06-04-2004, 11:53 PM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speeds
OTT won't deal Havlat, IMO.

PPG players in the NHL last season: 11 (min 50 games played)

Havlat was one of them, the 2nd youngest to Kovalchuk.

As for gagne, not sure what EDM can offer that would be worth Gagne. Depth? they already have that.

I agree with the idea, it certainly wouldn't hurt (though I might target a C), but I don't like the odds of picking up either of the 2 players mentioned.
Yeah you are probably right - but a lot depends on Hemsky this coming season. If he can be a legit 2nd line RW then we are looking OK. If he can't get to the next level and figure out the NHL game - then we really need more firepower on RW. He may just need more time and less pressure IMHO.

Ottawa desperately needs what we have in abundance - a big gritty 20 goal LW with leadership intangibles - and we have 4 in Smyth, Torres, Moreau and Isbister. What they have in abundance is skilled goal-scoring RW with Hossa, Alfredsson and Havlat. It really is a great match - but that has been obvious for years. I may be flamed mercilessly - but I would swap Torres and Rita for Havlat. I love Torres as a player - but you have to give to get - and this deal would help both teams.

Smyth Nedved Havlat
Isbister York Dvorak
Moreau Reasoner Pisani
Horcoff/Chimera Stoll Laraque/Hemsky

That seriously rocks and the top line would be feared........

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06-04-2004, 11:56 PM
  #43
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I don't mind Thelen, especially if Stafford is gone and it'll be hard to pass on Radulov but it does give Minnesota a native but what bugs me is that we don't have any legit skilled defensemen?

WTF?

Schultz? Burns? Bolduc? Misharin (to an extent)? Plus most of our defensemen are 30 and younger and the Wild utilize medicore defensemen on other teams and bring them out to average to okay defensemen.

They aren't hurting on defense, they are hurting on having adquete replacement wingers.

 
Old
06-05-2004, 12:32 AM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Seachd
I'd personally be thrilled if the Oilers got Fransson with the Philly pick (I'd rather have him than Valabik). One more year in Sweden or the AHL, and he'd be dangerously close to NHL-ready, from what I've read.
I, too, fall into the Fransson camp; I think he'll go late first round. What don't you like about him Speeds?

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06-05-2004, 01:08 AM
  #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seachd
I'd personally be thrilled if the Oilers got Fransson with the Philly pick (I'd rather have him than Valabik). One more year in Sweden or the AHL, and he'd be dangerously close to NHL-ready, from what I've read.

Either way, I'd probably save the goalie for at least the 2nd round.
Depends which goaltender is available at 25. Goaltending is still not a strong point in our organization and is defintely a long term need.

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06-05-2004, 01:09 AM
  #46
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mainly?

the extra year.

Then again, that bit of polishedmess never hurt anyone.

I suppose that for me to say I don't like him is a bit unfair. He probably cracks my top 40. I just have him behind a couple other D, such as Green , Meszaros.

I would be pretty happy with him at EDM's 2nd rounder. In terms of D, I have behind, Barker, Meszaros, Smid, Thalen, Green, and Valabik, in order (at the moment). And at EDM's 2nd 1st, I'd probably rather him that Dubnyk.

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06-05-2004, 02:12 AM
  #47
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Originally Posted by speeds
mainly?


I suppose that for me to say I don't like him is a bit unfair. He probably cracks my top 40. I just have him behind a couple other D, such as Green , Meszaros.

I would be pretty happy with him at EDM's 2nd rounder. In terms of D, I have behind, Barker, Meszaros, Smid, Thalen, Green, and Valabik, in order (at the moment). And at EDM's 2nd 1st, I'd probably rather him that Dubnyk.
Unfortunately, we dealt away our 2nd rounder to the Rangers in the Nedved deal. I'm pretty sure we don't have any other 2nd rounders so that 25th overall pick is going to be a pretty big one. If there's a guy they are very high on, relative to CSS rankings for instance, they might use the 25th overall to take him feeling he'd definately go in the 2nd round. They'd have to be pretty high on the guy though.

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06-05-2004, 02:15 AM
  #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemsky4PM
Unfortunately, we dealt away our 2nd rounder to the Rangers in the Nedved deal. I'm pretty sure we don't have any other 2nd rounders so that 25th overall pick is going to be a pretty big one. If there's a guy they are very high on, relative to CSS rankings for instance, they might use the 25th overall to take him feeling he'd definately go in the 2nd round. They'd have to be pretty high on the guy though.
We will still have a second rounder. The Brian Leetch compensation will be a second rounder. We just don't know which second rounder the Oilers dealt.

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06-06-2004, 01:26 AM
  #49
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Just doing some more analysis of this year's draft....

Obviously Ovechkin and Malkin are set in the top two spots...

After that, Barker, Ladd, Tukonen and Olesz are the remaining guys that I see as air-tight locks to be in the top ten. All the other guys I could see potentially falling down near our pick.

So that means there will be seven more names, besides the six previously mentioned, called before our pick at #14.

Guy has said that look for an offensive forward to be called on draft day.

So, that leaves (ranked from my favourite to least) as the offensive forwards I hope we have a shot at:

1. Radulov
2. Schremp
3. Picard
4. Stafford

So, in order to have a shot at one of these four guys, we would need four players not yet mentioned to be selected before us to get one of my four forwards to drop to #14.

So, on draft day, as long as at least four of the following players:

Wolski
Schwarz
Montoya
Thelen
Green
Valabik
Chipchura
Smid
O'Neill

go before our pick, we will be able to select one of Radulov, Schremp, Picard or Stafford at #14, which I would see as an tremendous start for our 2004 draft class.

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06-06-2004, 01:46 AM
  #50
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I think the two goalies are safe bets to go before 14. After that I think somebody may pick Smid before 14. Other then that I think it's going to be nip-and-tuck because I could see those four guys (also the four I'm most interested in for the Oil) being picked before 14. But even if they are, that'd leave Chipchura for us who would be a good pick no doubt - although perhaps not exactly what the organization needs.

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