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Predicts Sens finish in....(14th overall)

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Old
09-17-2010, 04:37 PM
  #26
saskriders
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MatthewT View Post
so your basically saying Volchenkov is more valuable then Gonchar?

IMO, I think Gonchar is more valuable to us because we desperately needed help on the pk
No way Volchenkov is better he is one of the best shot blockers in the league (he had 172 in 64 games for 8th in the league) you cant force guys to block shots only a few will do it Gonchar only had 92 in 62 game

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Old
09-17-2010, 04:38 PM
  #27
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Ottawa
Pittsburgh
Washington
New Jersey
Philadelphia
Buffalo
Carolina
Tampa Bay

Boston
Montreal
Rangers
Leafs
Panthers
Islanders
Thrashers

It's our time!

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Old
09-17-2010, 05:02 PM
  #28
timjNL
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Cullen's methodology

I'm pretty sure Cullen uses the lesser-known, but well-used 'anal extraction method' in order to derive his power rankings.

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09-17-2010, 05:39 PM
  #29
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I don't know who Scott Cullen is, but this looks like it is based on a formula, not his subjective opinion. I always prefer formula-based predictions, as at least they are consistent.

So far I like the list - my only real disagreement would be that they have Anaheim making the playoffs. Other than that it is pretty similar to my predictions posted in the other thread:

1. Washington - 115 pts
2. New Jersey - 105 pts
3. Boston - 102 pts
4. Philadelphia - 99 pts
5. Ottawa - 97 pts
6. Pittsburgh - 96 pts
7. Buffalo - 95 pts
8. NY Rangers - 92 pts
9. Tampa Bay - 90 pts
10. Montreal - 85 pts
11. Carolina - 84 pts
12. Toronto - 83 pts
13. Atlanta - 79 pts
14. NY Islanders - 78 pts
15. Florida - 71 pts

1. Vancouver - 110 pts
2. Detroit - 105 pts
3. Chicago - 104 pts (obviously not including divisional reseeding)
4. San Jose - 101 pts
5. Phoenix - 99 pts
6. St. Louis - 98 pts
7. Los Angeles - 97 pts
8. Colorado - 90 pts
9. Nashville - 89 pts
10. Dallas - 88 pts
11. Minnesota - 87 pts
12. Calgary - 85 pts
13. Anaheim - 83 pts
14. Columbus - 80 pts
15. Edmonton - 71 pts

edit: I haven't yet factored in the Savard news, so that will likely drop Boston down a couple points


Last edited by Lexicon Devil: 09-17-2010 at 07:33 PM.
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Old
09-17-2010, 08:18 PM
  #30
Mathieu
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My guess :

1.Washington ~ 115 points
2.Pittsburgh ~ 104 points
3.Boston ~ 100 points
4.New Jersey ~ 101 points
5.Sens ~ 97 points
6.Carolina ~ 94 points
7.Philadelphia ~ 94 points
8.Montreal ~ 91 points

9.Tampa Bay ~ 90 points
10.Buffalo ~ 88 points
11.Toronto ~ 86 points
12.New York Rangers ~ 83
13.New York Islanders ~ 79
14.Atlanta ~ 78
15.Florida ~ 72


1.Los Angeles ~ 110
2.Detroit ~ 109
3.Vancouver ~ 97
4.San Jose ~ 104
5.Chicago ~ 104
6.Nashville ~ 94
7.Phoenix ~ 92
8.Anaheim ~ 91

9.Colombus ~ 89
10.Calgary ~ 86
11.St-Louis ~ 85
12.Colorado ~ 83
13.Dallas ~ 82
14.Edmonton ~ 74
15.Minnesota ~ 68

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Old
09-17-2010, 09:44 PM
  #31
FlapJackKing
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saskriders View Post
No way Volchenkov is better he is one of the best shot blockers in the league (he had 172 in 64 games for 8th in the league) you cant force guys to block shots only a few will do it Gonchar only had 92 in 62 game
The numbers don't work in your favor with this argument...

On the negative
Let's assume that Volchenkov is going to play about 70 games this year and block about 190 shots (looking at the last 3 years)

Over the last 3 years Gonchar is averaging about 110 blocked shots for every 75 games played.

The difference here is about 80 blocked shots and with a goaltending tandem save percentage of .910 (let's hope) you can expect opposing teams to score an additional 7 goals over the course of the season.

On the positive
Gonchar's production alone is going to make up that difference but if you factor in improved production from Spezza, Kovalev (again, let's hope), Michalek, Karlsson and Regin on an improved PP the impact of Volchenkov's absence may not be a dramatic as you may think at first...

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Old
09-18-2010, 02:28 PM
  #32
Common SENS
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I think ottawa will finish 4th 5th or 6th in the east, something like that. i know that's alot of places, but those places will likely be separated by very few points.

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Old
09-18-2010, 10:59 PM
  #33
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1st in NE, book it. Buffalo overachieved last year, we underachieved. And Savard has post concussion, so we are good to go.

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Old
09-19-2010, 09:28 AM
  #34
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14th. A bit premature for Ottawa. Oh well, at least we're above Montreal

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Old
09-19-2010, 04:06 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saskriders View Post
No way Volchenkov is better he is one of the best shot blockers in the league (he had 172 in 64 games for 8th in the league) you cant force guys to block shots only a few will do it Gonchar only had 92 in 62 game
Blocked shots are overrated. Volchenkov was too one-dimensional. He offered absolutely nothing offensively. Especially on a team with chris phillips, who is better.

Dont get me wrong, hes great, and plays his heart out, but gonchar is far far better for us.

I mean how much does blocked shots really help a team? Odds are the goalie saves it anyways.

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Old
09-19-2010, 05:30 PM
  #36
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I'd say 3rd or 4th in the east and first in our division.

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Old
09-19-2010, 05:43 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swiftwin View Post
Blocked shots are overrated. Volchenkov was too one-dimensional. He offered absolutely nothing offensively. Especially on a team with chris phillips, who is better.

Dont get me wrong, hes great, and plays his heart out, but gonchar is far far better for us.

I mean how much does blocked shots really help a team? Odds are the goalie saves it anyways.
Blocked shots make our goalie's save percentage look bad.

I'm not really sure how much they effect how many goals that are scored against us though, guess we'll find out this season.

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Old
09-19-2010, 07:52 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Lehner Fan Boy View Post
Blocked shots make our goalie's save percentage look bad.

I'm not really sure how much they effect how many goals that are scored against us though, guess we'll find out this season.
Its not just the blocked shots but also the potential rebounds the goalie is giving up by making those saves.

How soon people have turned on Volchenkov. He was a great shutdown guy who was able to keep stars from other teams honest. The team is going to miss him and his "one dimensional" play thios year - mark my words.

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Old
09-19-2010, 09:05 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by StayThirstyMyFriend View Post
Its not just the blocked shots but also the potential rebounds the goalie is giving up by making those saves.

How soon people have turned on Volchenkov. He was a great shutdown guy who was able to keep stars from other teams honest. The team is going to miss him and his "one dimensional" play thios year - mark my words.
I never turned on Volchenkov if that's what you are implying. I was near tears when I heard we signed Gonchar. (Meaning that we didn't have room for A-Train).

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09-19-2010, 09:14 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by StayThirstyMyFriend View Post
Its not just the blocked shots but also the potential rebounds the goalie is giving up by making those saves.

How soon people have turned on Volchenkov. He was a great shutdown guy who was able to keep stars from other teams honest. The team is going to miss him and his "one dimensional" play thios year - mark my words.
I agree, Volchenkov's role is being downplayed too much and Gonchar's abilities are being hyped up. From an offensive standpoint, the blueline looks great. Realistically, Gonchar is a big downgrade from Volch defensively, and with Kuba now out our PK is far from ideal. One penalty, or worse an injury, to a guy like Phillips or Carkner and the PK ends up playing Campoli or Karlsson. Yikes. Not only that, but our goaltenders are Elliott and Leclaire, both of whom are inconsistent and not legitimate #1s at this time. Volchenkov helped to take away quality scoring chances, in addition to outright blocking shots. I'm not sure Gonchar will have the same ability to force players to lower percentage areas as effectively as Volch did.

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Old
09-19-2010, 10:57 PM
  #41
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So Cullen predicts we finish 14th in the East???? :

I still think this team is a playoff team.

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Old
09-19-2010, 11:00 PM
  #42
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So Cullen predicts we finish 14th in the East???? :

I still think this team is a playoff team.
16th overall... or 8th in the east

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Old
09-19-2010, 11:02 PM
  #43
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I agree, Volchenkov's role is being downplayed too much and Gonchar's abilities are being hyped up. From an offensive standpoint, the blueline looks great. Realistically, Gonchar is a big downgrade from Volch defensively, and with Kuba now out our PK is far from ideal. One penalty, or worse an injury, to a guy like Phillips or Carkner and the PK ends up playing Campoli or Karlsson. Yikes. Not only that, but our goaltenders are Elliott and Leclaire, both of whom are inconsistent and not legitimate #1s at this time. Volchenkov helped to take away quality scoring chances, in addition to outright blocking shots. I'm not sure Gonchar will have the same ability to force players to lower percentage areas as effectively as Volch did.
Shot blocking is all well and good but a lot of those shots would have been saved. It's pretty rare for a player to block a great scoring chance.

Gonchar is still good defensively, and he is far and away the best offensive d-man we've ever had. A massive upgrade over Anton, ESPECIALLY given the relative salaries and terms.

Volchenkov was also not an amazing defensive guy positionally. He was good. He wasn't Phillips good.

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Old
09-19-2010, 11:17 PM
  #44
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1st in NE, book it. Buffalo overachieved last year, we underachieved. And Savard has post concussion, so we are good to go.
Miller can't do it every year... Can he?

He's what stopped us from taking the NE last season and will IMO be the only reason we don't take it this year.

I'm not worried about the Habs, Bruins or Leafs.

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Old
09-19-2010, 11:39 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by The Fuhr View Post
16th overall... or 8th in the east
Cullen predicted us to be 14th in the league and 7th in the East.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeD7367 View Post
Miller can't do it every year... Can he?

He's what stopped us from taking the NE last season and will IMO be the only reason we don't take it this year.
A plague of injuries while Buffalo remained relatively unscathed also kept us from taking the division. But Boston and Montreal also got hit with a tonne of key injuries last year too.

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Old
09-20-2010, 08:47 PM
  #46
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Damien Cox thinks the door has closed for the Sens and that they should tear down and rebuild.

It seems to me that Toronto media types have been saying the same sort of thing since before the lock out .

Cox is often seen as harsh on his hometown Leafs, but last year predicted they would be a playoff team and predicted the same thing for this year, though he seems to be wavering on that lately.

He seems to think that the Leafs have torn down and are rebuilding the right way, though I am not sure how dealing first round picks fits in that scenario.

And I think it might be wise to wait and see how Burkes rebuilt team fares this year before making these kind of claims.

Anyway here is the article.

http://www.thestar.com/article/86351...t-for-senators


No time like the past for Senators

The window of championship opportunity, it’s fair to say, has closed on the Ottawa Senators.

It existed, really, between 1999 and 2007, a run of strong seasons that culminated in a visit to the ’07 Stanley Cup final and defeat at the hands of the Anaheim Ducks.
.........
Jason Spezza, meanwhile, remains in the nation’s capital, but was a player greeted by as many boos as cheers last season and an unsuccessful candidate for the Canadian Olympic team. At 27, nobody talks about him as one of the great young forwards in the game anymore.

.......
Then again, it also seems to some that Ottawa might do well to recognize its chance to win it all has evaporated, and that a step back with a major rebuild is in order.

They’re better than the Leafs, this we know. But are the Leafs better off for having taken a wrecking ball to the remnants of the John Ferguson era and recognized the need to start again, while the Sens keep believing they have what it takes to win now?

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09-20-2010, 08:53 PM
  #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pepty View Post
Damien Cox thinks the door has closed for the Sens and that they should tear down and rebuild.

It seems to me that Toronto media types have been saying the same sort of thing since before the lock out .

Cox is often seen as harsh on his hometown Leafs, but last year predicted they would be a playoff team and predicted the same thing for this year, though he seems to be wavering on that lately.

He seems to think that the Leafs have torn down and are rebuilding the right way, though I am not sure how dealing first round picks fits in that scenario.

And I think it might be wise to wait and see how Burkes rebuilt team fares this year before making these kind of claims.

Anyway here is the article.

http://www.thestar.com/article/86351...t-for-senators


No time like the past for Senators

The window of championship opportunity, itís fair to say, has closed on the Ottawa Senators.

It existed, really, between 1999 and 2007, a run of strong seasons that culminated in a visit to the í07 Stanley Cup final and defeat at the hands of the Anaheim Ducks.
.........
Jason Spezza, meanwhile, remains in the nationís capital, but was a player greeted by as many boos as cheers last season and an unsuccessful candidate for the Canadian Olympic team. At 27, nobody talks about him as one of the great young forwards in the game anymore.

.......
Then again, it also seems to some that Ottawa might do well to recognize its chance to win it all has evaporated, and that a step back with a major rebuild is in order.

Theyíre better than the Leafs, this we know. But are the Leafs better off for having taken a wrecking ball to the remnants of the John Ferguson era and recognized the need to start again, while the Sens keep believing they have what it takes to win now?
warrants an email

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Old
09-20-2010, 08:56 PM
  #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pepty View Post
Damien Cox thinks the door has closed for the Sens and that they should tear down and rebuild.

It seems to me that Toronto media types have been saying the same sort of thing since before the lock out .

Cox is often seen as harsh on his hometown Leafs, but last year predicted they would be a playoff team and predicted the same thing for this year, though he seems to be wavering on that lately.

He seems to think that the Leafs have torn down and are rebuilding the right way, though I am not sure how dealing first round picks fits in that scenario.

And I think it might be wise to wait and see how Burkes rebuilt team fares this year before making these kind of claims.

Anyway here is the article.

http://www.thestar.com/article/86351...t-for-senators


No time like the past for Senators

The window of championship opportunity, itís fair to say, has closed on the Ottawa Senators.

It existed, really, between 1999 and 2007, a run of strong seasons that culminated in a visit to the í07 Stanley Cup final and defeat at the hands of the Anaheim Ducks.
.........
Jason Spezza, meanwhile, remains in the nationís capital, but was a player greeted by as many boos as cheers last season and an unsuccessful candidate for the Canadian Olympic team. At 27, nobody talks about him as one of the great young forwards in the game anymore.

.......
Then again, it also seems to some that Ottawa might do well to recognize its chance to win it all has evaporated, and that a step back with a major rebuild is in order.

Theyíre better than the Leafs, this we know. But are the Leafs better off for having taken a wrecking ball to the remnants of the John Ferguson era and recognized the need to start again, while the Sens keep believing they have what it takes to win now?
Meh. Sens have better prospects, equally good young NHLers, far better vets... Sens came 5th last year after a bad season yet somehow we overachieved. We may not come 5th as some teams will surprise and some teams improved but we're by no means a team that can't compete.

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Old
09-20-2010, 09:54 PM
  #49
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Ottawa was either 1) not facing a plague of injuries or 2) not having the 3rd worst goaltending in the league away from taking the division title last season. It's entirely possible that we could avoid both this year.

Toronto was one of the better teams in the league for 6 seasons, they stunk before and they stunk after. The difference in between was Joseph & Belfour providing elite goaltending. Then Belfour got old after the lockout and JFJ started throwing away 1st rounders for mediocre goalies.

Building / Rebuilding... Ottawa's in a better position as of right now because they didn't throw away so many 1st rounders. Or many picks at all. We can match them player for player, prospect for prospect with lots of talent left over right now.

Also, Toronto's cap is a little screwed for at least the next two seasons with too many big defense contracts and what IMO, is a bad mix on defense. When they clear out some of that deadweight and develop some responsible offensive depth, + sign a #1 offensive forward to lead the team... they'll start making the playoffs again. Though, I'm not sure that happens within 4 seasons (which kind of means that they pissed away Seguin for nothing).

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Old
09-20-2010, 10:02 PM
  #50
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I think we lost more then we gained in the offseason (other then experience for the young guys) but we can't possibly have as much injury trouble as last year I will say 5th in east
How can you say we lost more than we gained? We gained Sergei Gonchar, one of the premiere D-men in the game (offensively anyway), someone who was key in developing Crosby's maturation so quickly and a guy who runs a lethal PP.

Not sure man...I love A-Train as much as anyone, but it was high time to change the dynamics of the team - and it was changed for the good IMO.

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