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The 2010 AAA Draft (rosters, picks, discussion, etc.)

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Old
10-25-2010, 12:13 AM
  #501
VanIslander
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
He was on the ice for 8% of his team's PPGA in his career, and that's about half the forward average.
While I certainly don't rely on stats to make my picks, I am curious as to the amount of time spent on the penalty kill for some guys, like my widely renowned penalty killing Schinkel. How much was he relied on in that aspect of the game? (i.e., What's his stat in that area?). And where do you get such obscure stats?

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10-25-2010, 01:15 AM
  #502
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Originally Posted by VanIslander View Post
While I certainly don't rely on stats to make my picks, I am curious as to the amount of time spent on the penalty kill for some guys, like my widely renowned penalty killing Schinkel. How much was he relied on in that aspect of the game? (i.e., What's his stat in that area?). And where do you get such obscure stats?
I get my data from overpass' adjusted +/- sheet. Where does he get it? Well, you need to know two things: How many PPGA does the player have in any given season, and how many PPGA did the team have?

Player PPGA is part of thier raw +/- data as found on hockey-reference.com.

Team PPGA is known back to a few years before expansion.

So the player's career record is based on their total career PPGA divided by their career team PPGA in games that they played.

One assumption is made in this calculation, I believe, and that is that PPGA can be perfectly prorated. For example, if the team had 80 PPGA in 80 games, it would be assumed that a player who played 40 games would have seen 40 PPGA on that team in those 40 games. Obviously nothing is perfectly linear, but I think this is pretty damn close.

As it applies to Schinkel, he killed about 14% of penalties for his teams, but this covers just 371 post-expansion games and not his other 265.

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10-25-2010, 04:04 AM
  #503
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Originally Posted by VanIslander View Post
Shepelev replaced an injured Larionov on the KLM line for Red Army's Super Series NHL tour in 1985-86, and in a 6-3 win over the Stanley Cup champion Oilers, Shepelev assisted on the first goal and color commentator Howie Meeker marvels at it: "What a great, great pass."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-jeTu...eature=related
I'm being the biggest nitpicker in the world, but...

This isn't true. Shepelev did play on the team during that tour, but it was another Spartak player, Victor Tyumenev, who centered Makarov and Krutov on the top line. I have 2 games of that tour on DVD (vs. Montreal and Edmonton).

I think Shepelev played with Makarov and Krutov in the 1984 CC round robin victory over Canada (?)

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10-25-2010, 04:53 AM
  #504
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About Mr. Lala...

Like everything seems to suggest, something happened to him around 1985, when he was just 25-26 years old; did he suffer an injury that slowed him down (speed was certainly one of his assets) and reduced his effectiveness? He just couldn't play at the top level internationally anymore; he played only 2 big tournaments (1986 WC and 1988 Olympics) after the succesful 1985 WC, with modest results (stats: http://www.eurohockey.net/players/sh...gi?serial=2653*). Whatever happened (or did not happen?), it didn't seem to affect his domestic play, which remained strong.

Anyway, Lala's 1981-85 years are almost up there with, say, Vladimir Martinec's 1974-78, even though his WC record isn't quite as impressive; 4 all-star berths over prime Mikhailov is tough to beat. Then again, prime - and young - Makarov may have been even tougher competition for Lala. Those who clearly value peak over longevity, at least, should have Lala pretty high on their list of best Czechoslovak players of all-time. I'd put him somewhere above guys like Bohuslav Ebermann and Bohuslav Stastny, but clearly below Jiri Holik and the sort. Should he be considered the best Team CSSR forward of the 1980s? Or are the guys with better longevity (at the top) like Pasek, Liba, Hrdina etc. better?

* probably not the most reliable source in the world, though. For example, it claims that Lala was a left hand shot, which he wasn't


Last edited by VMBM: 10-25-2010 at 03:54 PM.
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10-25-2010, 09:00 AM
  #505
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Toledo listpicks defenseman Howie Long
Regina listpicks center Pete Stemkowski

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10-25-2010, 09:01 AM
  #506
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opps

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10-25-2010, 09:15 AM
  #507
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Johnstown picks Christian Ruutu, a centre.

A 4-time 60 point scorer Ruutu will be good for our team.

More on Ruutu can be found here:

http://www.legendsofhockey.net/Legen...p?player=11421



Last edited by tony d: 10-25-2010 at 09:53 AM.
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10-25-2010, 09:46 AM
  #508
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C Jimmy Carson, the man with I believe the best goal scoring peak left in the draft.

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10-25-2010, 10:14 AM
  #509
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The Tigers draft Edmond Bouchard.



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1922-23 NHL 12 (2)

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Edmond Bouchard was a versatile player who lined up at left wing and defence during a career that lasted more than 200 games in the 1920s. He was best known as a checker but also demonstrated astute passing on occasion.

Born in St. Etienne, Quebec, Bouchard played senior hockey with the Montagnais club for three years. He later toiled for the Montreal Hochelega and two Quebec City squads, the Crescents, and Voltigeurs. In January 1922 he joined the Montreal Canadiens as a free agent where he played out the rest of the season.

Prior to the commencement of the 1922-23 schedule, Bouchard was sent to the Hamilton Tigers for Joe Malone and Bert Corbeau. He led the NHL with 12 assists in 24 games that year and remained with the club through the 1924-25 season when he was part of the player dispute with ownership over playoff money. Bouchard remained with the franchise after it was relocated to New York and named the Americans. Following a trade, he joined the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1928-29 then played four years in the minors before retiring in 1932.

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Old
10-25-2010, 11:30 AM
  #510
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Originally Posted by tony d View Post
Johnstown picks Christian Ruutu, a centre.

A 4-time 60 point scorer Ruutu will be good for our team.

More on Ruutu can be found here:

http://www.legendsofhockey.net/Legen...p?player=11421

He was actually a pretty good penalty killer, too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BiLLY_ShOE1721 View Post
C Jimmy Carson, the man with I believe the best goal scoring peak left in the draft.
He’s in a small handful with a top-5 appearance, and the only guy with two top-10s, so yeah, you may be right… bad attitude, though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by VanIslander View Post
Toledo listpicks defenseman Howie Long
Regina listpicks center Pete Stemkowski
I assume you mean someone else for Toledo. Howie Long, as far as I know, is a HOF Football player.

Glad to get Stemkowski to anchor my 4th line. He is described as a “useful and aggressive” player. He killed a lot of penalties, and managed over 500 career points despite getting almost no PP time. He was one of the best even strength scorers left available. (0.53 adjusted ES PPG compared to Carson’s 0.54 in a much shorter career – not bad!) He was a tough competitor, a good all-around player, and good team man. Punch Imlach raves up and down about Stemkowski every chance he gets in his books. He actually points to a moment where Stemkowski took on three opposing players and no one had the guts to step in, as the moment the Leafs dynasty was truly over.

Stemkowski scored a lot more in the playoffs than in the regular season – 0.65 compared to 0.55 points per game. This included three 12-point playoffs including being 2nd on the cup winning 1967 Leafs in points, 4th on the 1972 finalist Rangers, and leading scorer of the 1974 Finalist Rangers. In the 1971 playoffs, facing elimination in the semifinals against Chicago, it was Stemkowski who potted a triple overtime goal past Tony Esposito to keep the Rangers alive to die another day… which they did, in game 7.

Fun fact: If you ranked the 40 top post-expansion scorers remaining, Pete Stemkowski would be the 3rd-most prolific penalty killer on that list, having killed 29% of his team’s penalties post-expansion.

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Old
10-25-2010, 11:33 AM
  #511
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Michael Nylander, C/RW



- 3x top 20 in assists
- 0.51 APG
- very prolific ES scorer who also saw quite a bit PP time
- became solid defensively with experience
- maintained production level in the post-season
- led Rangers in playoff scoring in 2007 with 13 points in 10 games
- has career adjusted +/- of +181, 61st all-time

WJC-A All-Star Team (1992)
Named Best Forward at WJC-A (1992)
Swedish Rookie of the Year (1992)
Swedish World All-Star Team (1996, 1997)
WC-A All-Star Team (1997)
Named Best Forward at WC-A (1997)

Regarding the RW, he did play RW in Hartford early in his career

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10-25-2010, 12:43 PM
  #512
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has career adjusted +/- of +181, 61st all-time
And only 63 of that is from the 2006 and 2007 seasons with Jagr.... nice pick. No one thinks of him as a defensive player, myself included, but he did improve his team's goal differential on a regular basis. His only bad season in this regard was the 2008 season with Washington (-25) Other than that, his worst was a -3 in 1999.

If it wasn't for the fact that he was a center (not really what I look for in a 3rd/4th liner and I covered the top-2 lines early) he would be on my radar. He was an option for a top AA pick for sure.

I actually have him 2nd among available players in adjusted ESPPG, with 0.64 (among players with 400+ GP). The guys in 1st, 3rd, and 4th all have between 400 and 500 GP

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Old
10-25-2010, 12:48 PM
  #513
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VMBM View Post
About Mr. Lala...

Like everything seems to suggest, something happened to him around 1985, when he was just 25-26 years old; did he suffer an injury that slowed him down (speed was certainly one of his assets) and reduced his effectiveness? He just couldn't play at the top level internationally anymore; he played only 2 big tournaments (1986 WC and 1988 Olympics) after the succesful 1985 WC, with modest results (stats: http://www.eurohockey.net/players/sh...gi?serial=2653*). Whatever happened (or did not happen?), it didn't seem to affect his domestic play, which remained strong.

Anyway, Lala's 1981-85 years are almost up there with, say, Vladimir Martinec's 1974-78, even though his WC record isn't quite as impressive; 4 all-star berths over prime Mikhailov is tough to beat. Then again, prime - and young - Makarov may have been even tougher competition for Lala. Those who clearly value peak over longevity, at least, should have Lala pretty high on their list of best Czechoslovak players of all-time. I'd put him somewhere above guys like Bohuslav Ebermann and Bohuslav Stastny, but clearly below Jiri Holik and the sort. Should he be considered the best Czech forward of the 1980s? Or are the guys with better longevity (at the top) like Pasek, Liba, Hrdina etc. better?

* probably not the most reliable source in the world, though. For example, it claims that Lala was a left hand shot, which he wasn't
Thanks for the info. It brings to mind an interesting idea for a thread on the HOH board - just what happened to Czechoslovak hockey in the 1980s? I realize the defection of the Stastnys really hurt too, but the guys left in the country still should have lived up to the standard of the 70s team in theory, and just didn't.

Before Dreak "discovered" Lala, I was convinced that Jason Allison had the best offensive peak in this draft by a good margin. Now, I'm not completely sure that he even had the best offensive peak.

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Old
10-25-2010, 12:59 PM
  #514
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Thanks for the info. It brings to mind an interesting idea for a thread on the HOH board - just what happened to Czechoslovak hockey in the 1980s? I realize the defection of the Stastnys really hurt too, but the guys left in the country still should have lived up to the standard of the 70s team in theory, and just didn't.

Before Dreak "discovered" Lala, I was convinced that Jason Allison had the best offensive peak in this draft by a good margin. Now, I'm not completely sure that he even had the best offensive peak.
I could get behind that idea, because I think it has to follow that my new starting goaltender is probably the best in this draft, too.

and... pffft.... it was me who discovered Lala!

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10-25-2010, 01:10 PM
  #515
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London selects the star of the 1998 Winter Olympics, Rob Zamuner, LW

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Hockey News
ASSETS: Big, strong and versatile forward was primarily known for his defensive brilliance but could also help out on offense during his prime years thanks to yeoman's work. Never recorded a 20-goal campaign in the NHL yet came close on a handful of occasions. Signed as a free agent by the expansion Tampa Bay Lightning in 1992, he captained the same club later in 1998-99. A career highlight proved to be his participation as a member of Team Canada in the 1998 Olympics.

FLAWS: Not the fleetest of skaters and didn't have a dangerous shot or nifty hands, the rugged forward also ran into his share of injuries.

CAREER POTENTIAL: Gritty and dependable two-way forward.
http://forecaster.ca/hockeynews/hockey/player.cgi?1165

Good size: 6'3", 203 lbs
Selke Record: 13th (1996), 7th (1997), 22nd (2001)
Captain of the Lightning in 98-99.

Here's what some guy said about him:

Quote:
Originally Posted by God Bless Canada
Zaumner was the best defensive LW left on my list. I wouldn't pick a defensive specialist in this, though. He was probably one of the top five or so defensive forwards in the league from 1993 to 1998, but he was shafted in the Selke voting because that's when voters were looking at an offensive player who backchecks. (The 1995-96 Selke vote might be the biggest joke for any award in NHL history). Jere Lehtinen and Mike Peca would have never won their Selkes if they had to face those voting standards
Quote:
Originally Posted by wikipedia
Internationally, Zamuner played twice on Canada's world championship teams. Zamuner's unprecedented defensive play, along with his exceptional face-off taking ability led to a surprise selection on Canada's 1998 Olympic men's hockey team.

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Old
10-25-2010, 01:15 PM
  #516
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Toledo selects D Howie Young



Detroit Red Wings:
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A reckless performer as a young player both on and off the ice, Young fought battles with opponents and alcohol, but later cleaned up his act and went on to live a healthy and productive life.

"Rookie defensemen are often untamed at first," Detroit GM Jack Adams said, comparing Young's style to old-time hockey paragon Eddie Shore. "Young has fine potential. He has color. The crowds love him."

Adams also suggested NHL referees picked on Young.

"He's not vicious or crude and he never pops off when he gets a penalty," Adams said. "If he did those things, we'd be the first to get rid of him."

In 1962-63, Young established a new NHL single-season penalty-minute mark of 273 minutes, averaging more than four minutes per game, obliterating Lou Fontinato's previous standard of 202 minutes.

Young was also enduring his share of run-ins off the ice, both with the law and team officials. It wasn't unusual for him to miss practice and he was frequently fined and suspended by the club for rules violations. "He's had a rough go of things and he thought the world was against him," Adams said. The Wings finally ran out of patience with Young and dealt him to Chicago in 1963.

Assignment to Los Angeles of the WHL in 1963-64 offered Young the opportunity to boast he was the only man to work alongside Gordie Howe and Frank Sinatra. While playing for the WHL's Los Angeles Blades in the mid-1960s, Young launched an acting career and appeared as Private Waller in the 1965 World War II film None But The Brave, which starred and was directed and produced by Sinatra.
Legends of Hockey
Quote:
There was no middle ground for a hockey fan and their feelings toward Young. He was a supreme agitator, especially in the 1962-63 season when he compiled a league-leading 273 penalty minutes in 64 games.
Sports Illustrated, January 28, 1963
Quote:
Howie Young's ferocity toward his fellow man led to standing ovations in Detroit and suspensions by his team and the NHL office. "My job," he once said, "is to get my shoulder into somebody." While patrolling the blue line for the Red Wings in the early 1960s, Young would hurl himself at opposing forwards like a human tsunami. His crunching checks and seat-of-the-pants style helped spark Detroit to the Stanley Cup finals in 1961. Two seasons later he shattered the league mark for penalty minutes, with 273 in just 64 games.

The smiling visage that graced SI's cover, however, belied a tortured soul. Young says he drank nearly every day for 12 years, until he bottomed out at 27. Indeed, he was hung over when he posed for SI after a morning practice. "On the bench I would say, 'Please God, just get me through this game,' " says Young, now 60. "Then it was, 'Hey, God, just get me through this period.' Finally, it was, 'God, just get me through this shift.' "

The Red Wings finally gave up on Young and dealt him to the Chicago Blackhawks in 1963. Later that season he was exiled to a minor league team in Los Angeles, where he began to act, appearing as a marine in the 1965 Frank Sinatra movie None but the Brave. His descent reached its nadir, however, on a May evening in '65, when a besotted Young was hauled off by police after breaking into his own apartment. That night, alone in a four-by-six-foot jail cell, he vowed to get off the sauce. Two days later he joined Alcoholics Anonymous, and he says he has been sober since.

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Old
10-25-2010, 01:51 PM
  #517
seventieslord
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That's who I thought you were taking... not Howie Long.

I just got his biography - Cowboy On Ice. I look forward to reading it. The guy lived a crazy life.

-----

Hey, interesting news of the day: I was looking through the archives here:

http://www.passionhockey.com/Archives.html

and I noticed that the Soviet league has always had playoffs. We had always gone on the assumption that they didn't. But for example, if you look click on the URSS league in 1960,

Quote:
Huitièmes de finale

CSKA Moscou - Kirovets Leningrad 3-3 5-1 7-3
Krylia Sovietov Moscou - Spartak Sverdlovsk 5-2 12-5
Dynamo Moscou - Dynamo Novosibirsk 4-4 6-2 6-1
Lokomotiv Moscou - Kalinin 4-3 4-2


Quarts de finale

CSKA Moscou - Torpedo Gorki 5-6 3-1 8-0
Krylia Sovietov Moscou - SKA Leningrad 9-2 6-2
Dynamo Moscou - Elektrostal 4-2 4-0
Lokomotiv Moscou - Traktor Chelyabinsk 2-3 4-1 9-2


Demi-finales

CSKA Moscou - Krylia Sovietov Moscou 7-1 5-0
Dynamo Moscou - Lokomotiv Moscou 5-1 1-3 5-3
Matches de classement

Elektrostal - Traktor Chelyabinsk 5-2 6-4
Torpedo Gorki - SKA Leningrad 5-2 2-3

Dynamo Novosibirsk - Kalinin 3-1 2-1
Kirovets Leningrad - Spartak Sverdlovsk 3-1 0-5 4-2


Finale

CSKA Moscou - Dynamo Moscou 10-4 5-0 5-1
Le CSKA est champion d'URSS.

Match pour la troisième place

Krylia Sovietov Moscou - Lokomotiv Moscou 7-3 8-4
Match pour la cinquième place

Torpedo Gorki - Elektrostal 9-0 5-1
Match pour la septième place

SKA Leningrad - Traktor Chelyabinsk 6-3 2-1
Match pour la neuvième place

Dynamo Novosibirsk - Kirovets Leningrad
Match pour la onzième place

Spartak Sverdlovsk - Kalinin 8-5 1-2


Poule pour la treizième place

LIIHT Leningrad - Khimik Voskresensk 0-7
Molot Perm - LIIHT Leningrad 4-2
Khimik Voskresensk - Molot Perm 8-0
Khimik Voskresensk - LIIHT Leningrad 8-1
LIIHT Leningrad - Molot Perm 4-1
Molot Perm - Khimik Voskresensk, forfait Voskresensk
Classement : 13 Khimik Voskresensk 6, 14 Molot Perm 4, 15 LIIHT Leningrad 2.

Poule pour la seizième place

Vagostroïtel Riga - Spartak Omsk 4-2
Spartak Moscou - Vagostroïtel Riga 13-3
Spartak Omsk - Spartak Moscou 4-2
Spartak Omsk - Vagostroïtel Riga 13-2
Vagostroïtel Riga - Spartak Moscou 1-3
Spartak Moscou - Spartak Omsk, forfait Moscou
Classement : 16 Spartak Omsk 6, 17 Spartak Moscou Perm 4, 18 Vagostroïtel Riga 2.


In most seasons they also mention who the leading playoff scorer was, which is some interesting info that we could use going forward.

On the other hand, if you look at the czech leagues, they show the division A standings, then declare a champion, and explain that the last place team was relegated. For division B, the winner gets promoted, and the last place team gets relegated. No playoffs there for years.

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10-25-2010, 01:54 PM
  #518
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
That's who I thought you were taking... not Howie Long.

I just got his biography - Cowboy On Ice. I look forward to reading it. The guy lived a crazy life.

-----

Hey, interesting news of the day: I was looking through the archives here:

http://www.passionhockey.com/Archives.html

and I noticed that the Soviet league has always had playoffs. We had always gone on the assumption that they didn't. But for example, if you look click on the URSS league in 1960,





In most seasons they also mention who the leading playoff scorer was, which is some interesting info that we could use going forward.

On the other hand, if you look at the czech leagues, they show the division A standings, then declare a champion, and explain that the last place team was relegated. For division B, the winner gets promoted, and the last place team gets relegated. No playoffs there for years.
Huh. Interesting. The question becomes how much weight to put into the Soviet League playoffs then, when they clearly valued international play more than their domestic league.

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10-25-2010, 02:33 PM
  #519
seventieslord
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Huh. Interesting. The question becomes how much weight to put into the Soviet League playoffs then, when they clearly valued international play more than their domestic league.
Oh, not much, especially for back then. But I think it does add a little bit of depth to what we know about those seasons for now (all-stars, regular season scoring leaders)

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10-25-2010, 02:42 PM
  #520
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It's after midnight after a hard day of work here, early Tuesday, so the Howie Long thing obviously was a subconscious flashback to my childhood (my best bud's fav Raider). Would be funny, if anyone took it that way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
And only 63 of that is from the 2006 and 2007 seasons with Jagr.... nice pick. No one thinks of him as a defensive player, myself included, but he did improve his team's goal differential on a regular basis. His only bad season in this regard was the 2008 season with Washington (-25) Other than that, his worst was a -3 in 1999.

I actually have him 2nd among available players in adjusted ESPPG, with 0.64 (among players with 400+ GP). The guys in 1st, 3rd, and 4th all have between 400 and 500 GP
STATISTICAL SMOKE. First you praise a stat of his then say 'no one thinks of him as a defensive player' and then cite the stat AS IF it was an ACHIEVMENT OF ANY BLOODY KIND. He improved his team's goal differential? THIS player I have watched a lot of because of the teams he was on and he deserves NO CREDIT for defensive play of any kind. He is a Double-A pick at the very best (and only because of passing and even then a bottom half of draft role playing pick, ideally a single-a starter), and really, this worshiping of stats is getting sickening. Nylander is by no means an all-time great, all-time very good or even all-time good at anything but playing the periphery and relaying the puck up ice, and oh yeah, hooking the guy he's supposed to be checking. He was traded for garbage because he is a MARGINAL Top-6 NHLer, a 2nd liner on an at-best average team. The emperor has no clothes with this pick, regardless what the stats say (and in fact the pick shows the limitations of relying on stats.

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10-25-2010, 02:47 PM
  #521
TheDevilMadeMe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VanIslander View Post
It's after midnight after a hard day of work here, early Tuesday, so the Howie Long thing obviously was a subconscious flashback to my childhood. Would be funny, if anyone took it that way.


STATISTICAL SMOKE. First you praise a stat of his then say 'no one thinks of him as a defensive player' and then cite the stat AS IF it was an ACHIEVMENT OF ANY BLOODY KIND. He improved his team's goal differential? THIS player I have watched a lot of because of the teams he was on and he deserves NO CREDIT for defensive play of any kind. He is a Double-A pick at the very best, and really, this worshiping of stats is getting sickening. Nylander is by no means an all-time great, all-time very good or even all-time good at anything but playing the periphery and relaying the puck up ice, and oh yeah, hooking the guy he's supposed to be checking. He was traded for garbage because he is a MARGINAL Top-6 NHLer, a 2nd liner on an at-best average team. The emperor has no clothes with this pick, regardless what the stats say (and in fact the pick shows the limitations of relying on stats.
I tend to view career adjusted +/- without context as pretty worthless, as well. (I mean, an absurdly good or bad adusted plus minus probably does say something but what?).

With context, it can be useful however. I'd want to know who Nylander's linemates were, who his comparable teammates were (forwards on other lines), and his role on the team (mainly, did he face the better lines of the opponents or play mostly soft minutes?).

That's basically what Olausson's good adjusted/plus minus meant to me in the MLD - despite his defensive weaknesses, he wasn't a liability on the ice in real life... playing the easy minutes that he did in real life.

The limitations of adjusted plus minus were really driven home to me when it was shown that Jay Pandolfo had a negative adjusted plus minus the year he was a Selke finalist, while allowing an absurdly low amount of goals against per 60 minutes. Obviously the negative adjusted plus/minus was because he was facing all the opponent's best lines (I think the 2nd best quality of competition in the league using the most common formula, which is obviously just a formula).

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10-25-2010, 03:18 PM
  #522
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Thanks for the info. It brings to mind an interesting idea for a thread on the HOH board - just what happened to Czechoslovak hockey in the 1980s? I realize the defection of the Stastnys really hurt too, but the guys left in the country still should have lived up to the standard of the 70s team in theory, and just didn't.

Before Dreak "discovered" Lala, I was convinced that Jason Allison had the best offensive peak in this draft by a good margin. Now, I'm not completely sure that he even had the best offensive peak.
It was a good reminder of Lala. I have occasionally made desperate attempts on HOH to get some information about him, because I definitely remember him as a superstar calibre player from the early 80s; clearly the best European non-NHL & non-Soviet forward in the world. BTW, based on those few games I've seen him play (recently), I was trying to think of some other player who he could be compared to. Smaller version of Valeri Kamensky, maybe?

In the 80s, I think they simply lacked true superstars/leaders, especially after Lala faded. Ruzicka, Pasek, Rosol, Liba, Rusnak, Hrdina, Kadlec, Horava - all good players, but hardly on the level of Nedomansky, Martinec, Hlinka, Pospisil or Novy. Then again, I think that as a team, they were fairly consistent, meaning that they quite rarely lost to [clearly] inferior teams and I think more often than not beat the Canadian pros in the World Championships. So they did OK with the players they had IMO; the obvious crown jewel being the lone world championship in 1985.

Despite having won the championship 3 times and playing almost always well against the Soviets, the 70s Czechs still had their flaws too; they sometimes managed to lose to teams like USA and Finland (twice at the 1974 WC!) and fairly often to Sweden; inconsistency was their biggest problem.

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10-25-2010, 03:36 PM
  #523
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
The limitations of adjusted plus minus were really driven home to me when it was shown that Jay Pandolfo had a negative adjusted plus minus the year he was a Selke finalist, while allowing an absurdly low amount of goals against per 60 minutes. Obviously the negative adjusted plus/minus was because he was facing all the opponent's best lines (I think the 2nd best quality of competition in the league using the most common formula, which is obviously just a formula).
That's part of it, the other being that his line didn't have much offensive ability.

Regarding Nylander:

- I find it absolutely hilarious that VI claims Nyllet to be barely AA player, while not batting an eyelash at the abomination that is Burrows, or at the atrocious playoff acumen of Christian Ruuttu. But I guess that's Vancouver bias for you.

- regarding his role and linemates, it seems to be:
92-93 - HFD, 2nd/3rd line, a mixture of Craven and four undrafted guys. 7th ATOI among forwards (8th ES). 9th in scoring.
93-94 - HFD, 2nd line, Brian Propp in his final season and an undrafted guy. They were the top 3 forwards with over 40 GP in +/- on the team. 5th ATOI among fowards (5th ES). 5th in scoring.
94-95 - injured for most part
95-96 - CGY, 1st/2nd line, Fleury, Robert, Stillman and an undrafted guy. 3rd ATOI among forwards (3rd ES). 3rd in team scoring.
96-97 - didn't play in NHL due to contract dispute
97-98 - CGY, 1st/2nd/3rd line, a ton of players. Led team in +/-. 7th in forward ATOI (6th ES). 6th in scoring.
98-99 - injured for most part
99-00 - CHI, 1st/2nd line, Amonte, Sullivan, 2x undrafteds. 4th in foward ATOI (4th ES). 5th in +/-. 5th in scoring, 2nd in goals.
00-01 - CHI, 1st/2nd line, Sullivan & undrafted. 4th in forward ATOI (4th ES). Led team in +/-. 3rd in scoring, 2nd in assists.
01-02 - CHI, 2nd line, Sullivan & undrafted. 8th in forward ATOI (7th ES). Led team in +/-. 4th in scoring, 1st in assists.
02-03 - WSH, 2nd line, a mix of Bondra, and several undrafteds. 4th in forward ATOI (4th ES). 4th in scoring.
03-04 - barely played, injured
05-06 - NYR, 1st line, Jagr & Straka/undrafted. 2nd in forward ATOI (2nd ES). 2nd in scoring and assists, 3rd in goals. 3rd in +/- (2nd among forwards).
06-07 - NYR, 1st line, Jagr & Straka. 2nd in forward ATOI. 2nd in scoring and assists. 4th in +/- (3rd among forwards).
07-08 - WAS, 2nd line, Semin & two undrafteds. 2nd in forward ATOI. 6th in points, 2nd in PPG.
08-09 - WAS, 3rd line, Fedorov/2 undrafteds. 8th in forward ATOI. 8th in points.

His scoring finishes seems to be in line with his ATOI. His +/- is usually among the best. His linemates have been average at best when taken all together.


Last edited by MadArcand: 10-25-2010 at 03:52 PM.
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10-25-2010, 03:38 PM
  #524
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Originally Posted by VanIslander View Post
STATISTICAL SMOKE. First you praise a stat of his then say 'no one thinks of him as a defensive player' and then cite the stat AS IF it was an ACHIEVMENT OF ANY BLOODY KIND. He improved his team's goal differential? THIS player I have watched a lot of because of the teams he was on and he deserves NO CREDIT for defensive play of any kind. He is a Double-A pick at the very best (and only because of passing and even then a bottom half of draft role playing pick, ideally a single-a starter), and really, this worshiping of stats is getting sickening. Nylander is by no means an all-time great, all-time very good or even all-time good at anything but playing the periphery and relaying the puck up ice, and oh yeah, hooking the guy he's supposed to be checking. He was traded for garbage because he is a MARGINAL Top-6 NHLer, a 2nd liner on an at-best average team. The emperor has no clothes with this pick, regardless what the stats say (and in fact the pick shows the limitations of relying on stats.
I think someone needs to go back to sleep, and then wake up and realize that we are over 1200 picks deep here. Nylander was arguably the best modern offensive player left. And by quite a few measures, actually - career points, number of 55+ point seasons, adjusted points, per-game even strength scoring maintained over 900+ games, and so on.

Nobody thinks of Jagr as a defensive player either, but I happen to think his ability to control the puck is a defensive skill in itself, because the opposition never took the puck from him, back down the ice, and scored. As such, that is a form of defensive skill. It also shows in his ridiculously strong adjusted +/- stats.

yeah - let me say it again and maybe it will sink in this time. Nylander improved his team's goal differential, and by a very good margin, too. It could have been all thanks to offense, or maybe he's not as bad defensively as we all think, but his team's fortunes did get better when he was on the ice, and this isn't always the case with guys who have 8 55+ point seasons, including many already selected. Some of them were so bad defensively that I would argue they weren't worth the tradeoff. the numbers do not indicate this for Nylander.

What you are conveniently forgetting is that +/- (and its superior adjusted counterpart) are based on goals for AND goals against - no +/- stat ever means a player is good defensively, it refers to their overall goal differential. I think I was pretty clear in my comment that Nylander was nothing special as a defensive player, yet, as an overall player, he was worthy of selection at this time.

I would like to see you explain how any modern NHL forward selected from here on in, is better than Nylander offensively.


Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe
With context, it can be useful however. I'd want to know who Nylander's linemates were, who his comparable teammates were (forwards on other lines), and his role on the team (mainly, did he face the better lines of the opponents or play mostly soft minutes?).
Notice that I have cautioned about the use of adjusted +/- during this draft when it appears to be inflated by linemates. I also pointed out that Nylander had two strong seasons that can be pretty much thrown out as useful in evaluating him individually, thanks to the Jagr factor. However, Nylander never had any other really strong linemates for any length of time, to my knowledge.

Quote:
That's basically what Olausson's good adjusted/plus minus meant to me in the MLD - despite his defensive weaknesses, he wasn't a liability on the ice in real life... playing the easy minutes that he did in real life.
That's why ice time becomes so important. If you're playing very low ES minutes and have a strong adjusted +/- like Olausson did, then it makes perfect sense what was happening. If you play a ton of ES minutes (meaning you have to be playing against the best at least most of the time) and have a good adjusted +/- you have to be doing something right.

Quote:
The limitations of adjusted plus minus were really driven home to me when it was shown that Jay Pandolfo had a negative adjusted plus minus the year he was a Selke finalist, while allowing an absurdly low amount of goals against per 60 minutes. Obviously the negative adjusted plus/minus was because he was facing all the opponent's best lines (I think the 2nd best quality of competition in the league using the most common formula, which is obviously just a formula).
You know why? Because he was terrible offensively. Adjusted +/- doesn't prove anything about his defensive ability. It shows his overall impact, and even though he was great defensively, he did nothing offensively and still came out poorly. Of course, the competition he faced was a major factor in that. the stat that you showed on him earlier did a much better job of isolating his defensive ability than +/- ever could.

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10-25-2010, 03:44 PM
  #525
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You know why? Because he was terrible offensively. Adjusted +/- doesn't prove anything about his defensive ability. It shows his overall impact, and even though he was great defensively, he did nothing offensively and still came out poorly. Of course, the competition he faced was a major factor in that. the stat that you showed on him earlier did a much better job of isolating his defensive ability than +/- ever could.
But the danger is when adjusted +/- is assumed to be a measure of how much a player is helping or hurting his team. Pandolfo was clearly helping his team a ton - by limiting the offense of the other team's top scorers.

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