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Salary Cap & window for Playoff run is next Year

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Old
10-10-2010, 02:33 PM
  #1
AK Dandyman
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Salary Cap & window for Playoff run is next Year

Read this interesting article today. I know it is Burke, but i am sure the salary cap learning lesson applies to every GM in the NHL:

http://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey...-leafs-success

A thread i started but some posters disagree with the idea of expiring contracts
http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?p...t#post20483914

Quote:
Originally Posted by AK Dandyman View Post
We have been in the salary cap era for a few years now. As many posters here had mentioned, I am just as surprised by how unprepared we (Oilers) and many other NHL teams were in the start and how slow we are in learning to manage the cap properly.

I am also a NBA fan. Although the Salary cap rules works a little differently compare to the NHL, there are a few things we could learn from the top teams from NBA who had been using a cap for many more years than NHL.

2. Supporting/role players
NBA supporting cast makes 5 to 6 time less than the top players.
Lakers: D Fisher $3.5M, Walton $5M, Farmar $1.25M

but our supporting casts are making only 50% less with players like, Staios $2.9M, Moreau $2M, Pisani $2.5M.

This I think is the Cap buster. IMO, 3rd/4th line forwards or 5th/6th dmen should make less than $1.5M, otherwise we are overpaying, as these players are easy to find and interchangeable. This way you leave more cap room to sign elite players.

3. Expiring contract
Many NHL teams worry too much about losing soon-to-be free agent. They will try to lock them up to long term contracts and even over pay to do so(Horcoff, Moreau, Staios, Pisani?). Teams also don't like trading for player with 1yr left on his contract worry about having to resign the player for more money. If Horcoff is a FA today, would he still get $5.5M for 5 yrs from anyone?

NBA teams actually value expiring contracts, and they often overpay the other team to acquire a player who's contract is up soon so they can loose the salary next year to allow more flexibility for cap room to sign top notched high end star players.
What i am thinking is, tell me if i am too ambitious here:

- With Tambellini doing a great job getting some cap space back by removing the salaries of Moreau, Staios, Pisani, Patrick O'Sullivan, Nilsson, Grebs, replacing Visnovsky's salary with Whitney. And even better with the Souray's situation, it was smart that he rather sending him to the minors and not doing a trade taking any bad salary back. Even if he we lose him in re-entry, we still would shred $2.7M in cap space.

- Now if our rookies, Eberle, Hall, Paajarvi and possibly Omark, Petry are for real, i know it 's very early and a big "if" at this point

- Now we have $13M+ cap space to sign a top Defenseman and plus a couple other good players next year

- Penner & Hemmer are UFA, Brule & Gagner will be RFA in 2012-2013

the Oilers actually has a one year window in 2011-2012 to challenge for a playoff run while we still have Penner, Hemmer, Gags & Brule in the team.

This is year is definitely too early for that but Hall, Ebs & Paajarvi getting one year experience, you never know what we can do in 2011-2012.

One year of cap space cleansing can do some wonder for a team. Do you think we should go for it next year, go spend the money to sign some big free agents? Or should we go back to what many peoples are saying that this being a 3 to 5 years rebuild?

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10-10-2010, 04:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AK Dandyman View Post
Read this interesting article today. I know it is Burke, but i am sure the salary cap learning lesson applies to every GM in the NHL:

http://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey...-leafs-success

A thread i started but some posters disagree with the idea of expiring contracts
http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?p...t#post20483914



What i am thinking is, tell me if i am too ambitious here:

- With Tambellini doing a great job getting some cap space back by removing the salaries of Moreau, Staios, Pisani, Patrick O'Sullivan, Nilsson, Grebs, replacing Visnovsky's salary with Whitney. And even better with the Souray's situation, it was smart that he rather sending him to the minors and not doing a trade taking any bad salary back. Even if he we lose him in re-entry, we still would shred $2.7M in cap space.

- Now if our rookies, Eberle, Hall, Paajarvi and possibly Omark, Petry are for real, i know it 's very early and a big "if" at this point

- Now we have $13M+ cap space to sign a top Defenseman and plus a couple other good players next year

- Penner & Hemmer are UFA, Brule & Gagner will be RFA in 2012-2013

the Oilers actually has a one year window in 2011-2012 to challenge for a playoff run while we still have Penner, Hemmer, Gags & Brule in the team.

This is year is definitely too early for that but Hall, Ebs & Paajarvi getting one year experience, you never know what we can do in 2011-2012.

One year of cap space cleansing can do some wonder for a team. Do you think we should go for it next year, go spend the money to sign some big free agents? Or should we go back to what many peoples are saying that this being a 3 to 5 years rebuild?
The window is definitely not one year. Even if Penner and Hmsky both stay and the Oilers gave each $6M they only add $3.5M in cap space. This is likely less than the increase in the cap, probably by several million.

They should take advantage of what ever great opportunities they can but it would be a huge mistake to go on a spending spree for a run at the playoffs next year.

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10-10-2010, 05:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AK Dandyman View Post

What i am thinking is, tell me if i am too ambitious here:

- With Tambellini doing a great job getting some cap space back by removing the salaries of Moreau, Staios, Pisani, Patrick O'Sullivan, Nilsson, Grebs, replacing Visnovsky's salary with Whitney. And even better with the Souray's situation, it was smart that he rather sending him to the minors and not doing a trade taking any bad salary back. Even if he we lose him in re-entry, we still would shred $2.7M in cap space.

- Now if our rookies, Eberle, Hall, Paajarvi and possibly Omark, Petry are for real, i know it 's very early and a big "if" at this point

- Now we have $13M+ cap space to sign a top Defenseman and plus a couple other good players next year

- Penner & Hemmer are UFA, Brule & Gagner will be RFA in 2012-2013

the Oilers actually has a one year window in 2011-2012 to challenge for a playoff run while we still have Penner, Hemmer, Gags & Brule in the team.

This is year is definitely too early for that but Hall, Ebs & Paajarvi getting one year experience, you never know what we can do in 2011-2012.

One year of cap space cleansing can do some wonder for a team. Do you think we should go for it next year, go spend the money to sign some big free agents? Or should we go back to what many peoples are saying that this being a 3 to 5 years rebuild?
While I think that the window may be opening soon, I don't think it's closing in 2012/2013. First of all, the 2nd contracts for Gagner/Cogliano etc. have demonstrated that the doom-and-gloom predictions of huge raises for young guys are often highly overblown. I think Brule probably falls into this category. He could tear it up over the next couple years, but if he is simply consistent he will probably get no more than 3M$ in his next contract.

As for the veterans, a guy like Penner is probably fairly valued (he might get a raise due to salary cap inflation, but that would be mitigated by corresponding increase in the cap itself), as are guys like Whitney and Gilbert. Hemsky should/will get a raise, but we only need to worry about the increase over his current cap number. I.e if he ends up with a 6M$ contract that only eats up a couple million of the 13M$+ cushion the Oilers currently have. (This also applies to Hall, who already has a cap hit of almost 4M$, so his raise would need to be monstrous to really impact cap space).

On top of that, Khabibulin comes off the cap at the same time that Hall/Eberle/Paajarvi's ELCs expire, giving the Oilers an additional cushion to absorb raises (although they will need to have a starting calibre goalie in place by that time).

I don't see any apocalyptic "blow up the team" scenario in 2012/13, unless the Oilers do choose to go the route of the Blackhawks and go on a Huet/Campbell/Hossa-style spending spree.

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10-11-2010, 11:59 AM
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Originally Posted by taunting canadian View Post
While I think that the window may be opening soon, I don't think it's closing in 2012/2013. First of all, the 2nd contracts for Gagner/Cogliano etc. have demonstrated that the doom-and-gloom predictions of huge raises for young guys are often highly overblown. I think Brule probably falls into this category. He could tear it up over the next couple years, but if he is simply consistent he will probably get no more than 3M$ in his next contract.

As for the veterans, a guy like Penner is probably fairly valued (he might get a raise due to salary cap inflation, but that would be mitigated by corresponding increase in the cap itself), as are guys like Whitney and Gilbert. Hemsky should/will get a raise, but we only need to worry about the increase over his current cap number. I.e if he ends up with a 6M$ contract that only eats up a couple million of the 13M$+ cushion the Oilers currently have. (This also applies to Hall, who already has a cap hit of almost 4M$, so his raise would need to be monstrous to really impact cap space).

On top of that, Khabibulin comes off the cap at the same time that Hall/Eberle/Paajarvi's ELCs expire, giving the Oilers an additional cushion to absorb raises (although they will need to have a starting calibre goalie in place by that time).

I don't see any apocalyptic "blow up the team" scenario in 2012/13, unless the Oilers do choose to go the route of the Blackhawks and go on a Huet/Campbell/Hossa-style spending spree.
Definitely not a "blow up the team" type of scenario in 2012/13. I am more so thinking of the that's the year we will have to ante up to sign Hemmer, Penner, Gags & Brule for more money and longer contract. It means we either lose some of them or have to lock them up.

The rate Ebs, Hall, Paajarvi are developing, Khabi & Horc are rebounding, Hemmer & Penner are getting offensive support from a couple other forward lines, this team is not going to draft top 10 let alone another shot at a lottery pick.

I am thinking about maybe we have to take the Chicago's route where we go out and spent the cap signing a Hossa & a Campbell caliber of free agents to go with our current core roup for a playoff run in 20011/12. Then we sort of reload in 2012/13 with a bunch of contracts coming up. Or do we hold back and not sign any high price free agent sticking with the 3-5 yrs rebuild plan?

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10-11-2010, 01:54 PM
  #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
The window is definitely not one year. Even if Penner and Hmsky both stay and the Oilers gave each $6M they only add $3.5M in cap space. This is likely less than the increase in the cap, probably by several million.

They should take advantage of what ever great opportunities they can but it would be a huge mistake to go on a spending spree for a run at the playoffs next year.
I was watching the Wings @ Chicago banner raising game and the discussion with some of the ownership and management said the the window from getting serious to Stanley Cup was indeed 3 years.

When that old penny-pincher Bill Wirtz finally croaked, replacement management recognized the new CAP reality presented a very tight time frame. To create the right mix of older good players and young guns plus adding that final couple of needed pieces at the trade deadline to assemble enough quality guys to get the 49 year losers over the top. But it still didn't get it done in the 2nd year so the Hawks had to run close to, or afoul of, the CAP in order to cash-in bigtime and secure a shot at and finally win the Cup.

Three year cycles will be the norm going forward and teams that can't or won't grasp their opportunity in a timely fashion will become perennially also-rans. The Oilers won't have the luxury of replacing Penner and/or Hemsky and Horcoff's value will just increase as his salary decreases. Moving Gagner, Cogliano, maybe Gilbert and one of PRV, Omark might be the way to go. Depends on which of these so far under-performing or unproven players are able to raise their games.

You don't win Stanley Cups without roll players, and depth in other areas besides skilled forwards who have never moved from promise to consistent output at the designated level for which they are suited or actually play. Reality recognition will result in some hard decisions. If, the not quite able "2nd liners" can't pick up the necessary skills to play on the 3rd and/or 4th lines then it's a no brainer - move them.


Last edited by OYLer: 10-11-2010 at 04:38 PM.
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10-11-2010, 04:29 PM
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Our chance is 2011-2012

1. Yeas the window is open for deep run but we are number1 dman and top line center away to win it all.
2. We have too many bodies in the system so it makes sense to get assets I mentioned above if we can make 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 deal and Ufa signing.
3. We should trade for Spezza and we can get him with Cogliano and Horcoff plus something which means high pick or good prospect.
4. We should sign one of these Markov/Kaberle as a UFA. If we can not do this then we acquire number2 guy luke McCabe or Pitkänen and trade for Bufyglien
Winning team can look like this

Hall Spezza Eberle
Penner Gagner Hemsky
Pääjärvi Brule Omark
Jacques Fraser Stortini
Smack VandeVelde

Kaberle Smid
Gilbert Whitney
Foster Peckham
Chorney

Khabibulin
DD

After the run we let following guys to walk
Foster
Fraser
And trade Brule

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10-11-2010, 04:39 PM
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Not to be Debbie Downer, but have we not just played one good game and one terrible game since our last place finish?

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10-11-2010, 04:56 PM
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Quote:
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Not to be Debbie Downer, but have we not just played one good game and one terrible game since our last place finish?
Agreed. The window is closed. It will be boarded up tomorrow.

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10-11-2010, 05:27 PM
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Wayyy too much will happen in the future to predict when our window will be. Pittsburgh could win the cup this year, and then they could win the cup seven years from now. As long as we sign our young talent long term we will have more than just a small window to win the cup.

In today's NHL, where the competition level is so even, a single trade or lucky draft pick could go a long way. We have only a couple of players over 30. Maybe our best time to compete for the cup will be when Hall is 28 and in his prime...


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10-11-2010, 06:24 PM
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I think we're seeing way too much ink used on "ELC this... and window of opportunity that". Winning a Cup isn't tied to some exact framework and there isn't one perfect sytem to go about achieving a championship. Chicago won the Cup by doing what they did... but that doesn't mean another team doing the exact same thing (with different players of course... so there goes the perfect cloning plan right off the bat) is going to have SC success as well. There are 30 teams and it's always going to take some good players, shrewd management, decent coaching and a nice helping of luck to win a Cup. There are 30 teams and no one is a lock to win this season (or any other given year) no matter what particular framework they are using.

I'm betting that if a team outta the blue wins the Cup this year like oh I dunno... Dallas or the Rangers (or some other random unexpected club)... people would come up with some new pet theory of how they also fit into some "new wave" framework to win the Cup as well... and how the paradigm has changed again... blah blah blah.

Just draft smartly... develop your players... pay them sensibly (so you don't have to ice 15 man rosters while saying "It's all good." )... and have a good coaching/management team to give your team the best chance possible at winning each year.

Sure there are some common sense rules that teams have to keep in mind in the Salary Cap era we are now in but there's still no guarantee ANY team will win the Cup just because they structure their team for these largely "illusory" windows of opportunity.

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10-11-2010, 08:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilphan View Post
Not to be Debbie Downer, but have we not just played one good game and one terrible game since our last place finish?
Of course we shouldn't expect too much for this year because of how inexperience & green our your guys are.

But if we are going for it next year, management need to plan now in regards to managing the cap for it, looking into next year free agent, and developing our kids that's not yet in the NHL.

Colorado surprised everyone by making the playoffs last year already. Colorado did not improve their team by signing any high end free agent this off season. Making the playoff this early just burdened their young players with high expectations/pressure to do well again this year. Furthermore, they did not get a top 10 guy last draft as they had the 17th pick. This hindered their rebuilding somewhat and IMO, and i am guessing that they are going on a decline this year.

I don't want our team getting caught in between like Colorado seems to be getting themselves into. I know this is early, but this is what prediction is for instead of hindsight.

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10-11-2010, 08:50 PM
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top ten stupid threads I have read in awhile

Too suggest that the oilers window of winning in next year?

Only if the planet explodes in 2012

so a team where the core players are on entry level contracts has one year to get the business done?

The kids will be ready for prime time in two year--cup run in 4

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10-11-2010, 09:13 PM
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AK Dandyman
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top ten stupid threads I have read in awhile

Too suggest that the oilers window of winning in next year?

Only if the planet explodes in 2012

so a team where the core players are on entry level contracts has one year to get the business done?

The kids will be ready for prime time in two year--cup run in 4
Not winning next year. Never said that. Making the playoff was all it mentioned.

Do you think we have a shot making the playoff next year?

I took some heat from some posters last year by saying we need to rebuild and do a salary cleansing. Also mentioned the importance of expiring contracts like the NBA etc... Sometimes i do tend to get ahead of things. So i guess it's more or less the same on this particular topic. Is vision sounding stupid here? Or peoples prefer reading hindsight because it is always right? We will see


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10-12-2010, 10:27 AM
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Originally Posted by AK Dandyman View Post
- Now if our rookies, Eberle, Hall, Paajarvi and possibly Omark, Petry are for real, i know it 's very early and a big "if" at this point

- Now we have $13M+ cap space to sign a top Defenseman and plus a couple other good players next year

- Penner & Hemmer are UFA, Brule & Gagner will be RFA in 2012-2013

the Oilers actually has a one year window in 2011-2012 to challenge for a playoff run while we still have Penner, Hemmer, Gags & Brule in the team.

This is year is definitely too early for that but Hall, Ebs & Paajarvi getting one year experience, you never know what we can do in 2011-2012.

One year of cap space cleansing can do some wonder for a team. Do you think we should go for it next year, go spend the money to sign some big free agents? Or should we go back to what many peoples are saying that this being a 3 to 5 years rebuild?
You do realize that we will be well below the cap floor and will have ~20M of capspace next season .. There will be plenty more to offer contracts to guys like Penner, Hemsky, Brule and Gagner in 2 yrs. Neither of these 4 will be commanding big raises. 2M each max. Penner wont be getting much more then 5M, Hemmer no more then 6 and Gagner and Brule no more then 4 as RFAs. Thats only an additional 6-7M between the 4 of them.

Having said that I would be surprised if we DONT make the playoffs next season even as a cap floor team. There is just too much talent on this team and the 4 guys in bold will be playing for a contract.

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10-12-2010, 12:48 PM
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While I'm sure that they're happy after winning the cup, the Blackhawks just showed us how not to build a contender. If you've got the talent already within the organization to build around we shouldn't go blocking our future with big albatross contracts. Signing Campbell and Hossa meant the Hawks had to significantly dismantle the team this off-season. Even more so if Hossa wasn't on a cheaters deal.

Maybe it's worth it because they won it once. I think it's more likely they could have built a more solid perenial contender being smart with thier money.

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