Gagner has a whole year to be evaluated before the draft happens. At this point, he would be a great 2nd line centre, but if it looks like he takes a good leap this year, then I consider Larsson. If not, I take Couturier. That combo of size and skill is tantalizing. It also seems that steals occur more frequently at the draft at the dman position than the centre position. In other words, one COULD land a #1 dman out of the top 10 (Myers, Keith, Lidstrom, Marincin...)
A team doesn't NEED to have a #1 dman that is elite offensively. Although obviously that is preferred, it would be more important to have elite forwards. Elite shutdown defensive defenseman can be found outside the top 5 or 10 (even the 1st round) and are thus a little easier to attain. The names listed above are examples of dmen taken out of the first round that happen to have elite offensive talent as well. Sure you could make a list of 1st line centers taken out of the first round, but my hunch is that they are fewer.
As for out top six, we have Penner, Hemsky, Hall, Eberle, Pääjärvi and Omark on the wing and either Gagner or Pitlick of whom at least one should emerge as a #2 center.
So the only missing part is a true #1 center.
Contrariswise our defense is still a long shot away from beeing good.
Adding Larsson alone won't help there.
I know that we won't win a championship with offense alone, but it at least makes us an atractive team (e.g. Washington) and that again makes us a more atractive team for FAs. And at least within the last years more high class defensemen than forwards have hit free agency.
As for out top six, we have Penner, Hemsky, Hall, Eberle, Pääjärvi and Omark on the wing and either Gagner or Pitlick of whom at least one should emerge as a #2 center.
So the only missing part is a true #1 center.
Contrariswise our defense is still a long shot away from beeing good.
Adding Larsson alone won't help there.
I know that we won't win a championship with offense alone, but it at least makes us an atractive team (e.g. Washington) and that again makes us a more atractive team for FAs. And at least within the last years more high class defensemen than forwards have hit free agency.
Tough to decide. You need depth at both positions to compete. Look at CHI and PHI last year great depth at both positions. Richards, Carter, Briere at center and Pronger, Timonen, Coburn, Carle on the backend. Toews, Sharp, Bolland at center and Seabrook. Keith, Campbell, Hjalmarsson on d.
Tough to decide. You need depth at both positions to compete. Look at CHI and PHI last year great depth at both positions. Richards, Carter, Briere at center and Pronger, Timonen, Coburn, Carle on the backend. Toews, Sharp, Bolland at center and Seabrook. Keith, Campbell, Hjalmarsson on d.
Detroit is another team that's a perfect example of this.
Personally I think Gagner can be a #1 centre in a few years, I'm talking a PPG centre here. I still think we need someone to take care of faceoffs and whatnot (obviously), someone like Fischer, Kesler, Stoll, etc.
Larsson is such a rarity, I couldn't pass him up. Sure outside of him our defence isn't amazing but I don't think it's horrible. To support Larsson we'd still have Smid, who I personally believe will be very good in his prime. At least a couple of our prospects will be playing for the Oil and we'd still have Whitney and Gilbert. That's not bad and who knows maybe some of our young guys will exceed expectations and we could have a great defence corps with Larsson leading the way.
I'm not saying a franchise centre isn't important. Drafting RNH or Courturier would give us a great 1-2 punch at centre, well, more like 1-2-3 punch considering we still have Brule and Pitlick/Lander down the pipe. That depth at centre would be incredibly valuable, not just to give opposing teams headaches but also in case of injuries. Let me pain a picture here.. we're in the playoffs.. it's the Western Conference Finals.. we're about to close it out and get to the SCF.. Gagner breaks his wrist.. what now? So yea, I definitely can't deny the importance of depth at centre, I just feel like Larsson is more of a rare commodity and considering we have a huge need for both a franchise centre and dman I'd go with him.
Our team needs both.. but clearly, we need a bonafide #1 dman to build around. Even though we are lacking a true #1 centre, we have pretty good offensive depth in terms of our prospects. A player like Larsson is exactly what this team needs.
Everyone of those teams minus Carolina had at least one high end defense men.
A high end defenseman is different then a "franchise" defenseman. Dan Boyle and Pavel Kubina(when he was younger) weren't Franchise defensemen.
No one is suggesting you can win with crappy defense, but I'm suggesting it's harder to acquire/discover a #1 center then it is a "franchise" Defenseman.
If you don't have either, you take the #1C over the #1D because over the past 5-10 years in the NHL, teams have shown they can acquire a #1D through trade or FA while #1C pretty much have to be homegrown.
If you're talking about what an otherwise solid team needs to be put over the top though, then #1D takes the cake. My money's on Doughty's Kings to win a Cup before Stamkos's Lightning, y'know?
If you don't have either, you take the #1C over the #1D because over the past 5-10 years in the NHL, teams have shown they can acquire a #1D through trade or FA while #1C pretty much have to be homegrown.
If you're talking about what an otherwise solid team needs to be put over the top though, then #1D takes the cake. My money's on Doughty's Kings to win a Cup before Stamkos's Lightning, y'know?
No question, but I would say the Oilers are clearly not that.
Management picked the BPA from the last draft as opposed to needs based. However good these two forwards are being touted as, I've only heard "generational" talent being thrown out when analysts were talking about Larsson---management will not pass him up if they ever get the chance. I think it'll be Florida's pick, though. Lucky us if we land one of the forwards.
Management picked the BPA from the last draft as opposed to needs based. However good these two forwards are being touted as, I've only heard "generational" talent being thrown out when analysts were talking about Larsson---management will not pass him up if they ever get the chance. I think it'll be Florida's pick, though. Lucky us if we land one of the forwards.
I've heard that too, but he's not #1 right now.
Quote:
ISS Top 30 Prospects for October
Did no one else post this yet? I know people on here will be screaming bloody murder when they see Larsson down at #3.
01. Sean Couturier
02. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
03. Adam Larsson
04. Ryan Murphy
05. Victor Rask
06. Gabriel Landeskog
07. Brandon Saad
08. Matthew Peumpel
09. David Musil
10. Douglas Hamilton
11. Duncan Siemens
12. Seth Ambroz
13. Alexander Khokhiachec
14. Tomas Jurco
15. Joel Armia
16. Oscar Klefbom
17. Adam Clendening
18. Maxim Shalunov
19. Shane McColgan
20. Boone Jenner
21. Vladislav Namestnikov
22. Matthew Nieto
23. Myles Bell
24. Daniel Catenacci
25. Robbie Russo
26. Joachim Nermark
27. Connor Murphy
28. Patrick Koudys
29. Dmitrij Jaskin
30. Rocco Grimaldi
I hope Larsson slips down in the rankings all the way to where the Oilers will draft ... likely ~10th. Of course Larsson will almost assuredly go top 3 and well out of the Oilers reach but I think if he has anything near a Lidstrom type of upside he's an obvious choice if by some miracle he's still available when the Oilers choose. A franchise dman is invaluable... especially on the Oilers where the solid defensive prospects are far less numerous than the offensive prospects on the team.
I watch the WJC's every year and at 16 years of age only 3 players have ever had me saying holy **** is that kid ever good. One was Ovechkin, one was Crosby, and the other was Larsson. I am fully on his bandwagon till further notice; add to the fact that I think defense is a bigger need to this team than a number one center, and that I believe defense is a more important position than center, it really becomes a no-brainer.
Looking back at the cup winners since the lockout, it seems teams either have amazing depth at either center or defence, sometimes both.
Carolina- Center -> (Staal, Brindamour, Cullen)
Anaheim- Both -> (Mcdonald, Getzlaf, Pahlsson, Neidermayer, Pronger)
Detroit- Both -> (Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Lidstrom, Rafalski)
Pittsburgh- Center -> (Crosby, Malkin, Staal)
Chicago- Both -> (Toews, Bolland, Madden, Seabrook, Keith, Campbell)
So it seems overall depth at center is more important as opposed to defense. However, with this in mind, I still choose Larsson. I feel he is just way too good to pass up. We are just missing a #1 C (with Gagner and Horcoff as decent depth pieces), where as on defence we are virtually missing a top pairing (two top 2 dmen).
Franchise D can effect the outcome of a game better by playing around 5 minutes more per game and can help improve goaltending.
That's only my opinion if both players are close to equal at the end of the season. If one establishes himself as being better by the draft then it's a different story. Right now though, I vote Larsson.
No matter what the Oilers need a big body player, and whether to be a dominate forward down the middle or a 1/2 guy on the backend, these larger players take time to develop and bring along. Big skilled players are more of a risk because their bodies haven't finished growing and their coordination and body sense hasn't been established yet. But the payback when these harder to assess picks are developed is just that much greater. Penner is a prime example. So is Robin Lehner who is all ready paying dividends.
Something else we agree on.
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... likely ~10th. Of course Larsson will almost assuredly go top 3 and well out of the Oilers reach but I think if he has anything near a Lidstrom type of upside he's an obvious choice if by some miracle he's still available when the Oilers choose. A franchise dman is invaluable... especially on the Oilers where the solid defensive prospects are far less numerous than the offensive prospects on the team.
