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Interesting findings on Sundin.

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Old
10-25-2010, 05:29 PM
  #1
jarek
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Interesting findings on Sundin.

I have decided to do a bit of number crunching regarding Mats Sundin, just to see exactly where he stands offensively. I'm going to take each of his top-20 scoring seasons and see where he stands using seventies' percentages method. Here goes (format: points, placement, percentage of 2nd place):

1992-1993: 114 (11th) (77%)
1996-1997: 94 (7th) (86%)
1997-1998: 74 (14th) (81%)
1998-1999: 83 (11th) (78%)
1999-2000: 73 (17th) (78%)
2001-2002: 80 (4th) (89%)
2003-2004: 75 (12th) (86%)
2007-2008: 78 (20th) (74%)

A few other somewhat interesting seasons where he placed outside the top-20:

1993-1994: 85 (26th) (70%)
2002-2003: 72 (25th) (69%)
2005-2006: 78 (32nd) (74% of 3rd place, 1st and 2nd had 125 and 123 points, 3rd had 106)

And all this, on top of leading the 2002 Olympics in scoring with 9 points (2nd place had 8), tying for 6th in the 2006 Olympics with 8 points (1st place had 11) and 2nd on his own team (Alfie had 10 points), tying for 7th in scoring in the 1991 Canada Cup with 6 points (1, 2, 3 had 13, 11, 9) (this mark had him 1st on the team, there was a tie for 2nd with 3 points between 4 guys), tying for 3rd in scoring with a lot of guys in the 1996 World Cup of Hockey with 7 points (this mark led his team, 2nd on the team had 5), tying for 9th in the 2004 World Cup of Hockey with 5 points (1st had 8, tied for 3rd on team as well) as well as being 1st in scoring in the 1991, 1994 and 1998 World Championships (not best on best).

Alright, I looked at Sundin's best top-20 seasons, 8 of them, so let's see how he compares to Alex Delvecchio, a guy who was never quite elite, but very good for a very long time, and a guy who nobody would bat an eyelash at being called much better than Sundin offensively, most likely. Delvecchio's best top-10 seasons:

1952-1953: 59 (4th) (83%)
1957-1958: 59 (8th) (74%)
1961-1962: 69 (6th) (82%) (2 guys tied for 84 points for first place this year, which is the number I used)
1962-1963: 64 (8th) (79%)
1964-1965: 67 (5th) (81%)
1965-1966: 69 (7th) (88%)
1967-1968: 70 (8th) (83%)
1968-1969: 83 (7th) (78%)

Sundin: 89, 86, 86, 81, 78, 78, 77, 74
Delvecchio: 88, 83, 83, 82, 81, 79, 78, 74

I understand that Delvecchio has intangibles over Sundin, and it may not be close, but percentages wise, they come out so close, but Delvecchio's look prettier on paper because they are top-10s whereas most of Sundin's are in the top-20. Delvecchio has several other top-10s (3, to be exact), but those compare similarly percentage wise to the other finishes of Sundin outside the top-20.

What do you guys think?

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10-26-2010, 12:30 AM
  #2
Nalyd Psycho
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I'm not surprised Delvecchio is somewhat overrated offensively, but, like you said, intangibles. And modern era players are sometimes given a short straw because top ten finishes are tough to come across.

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10-26-2010, 12:35 AM
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overpass
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Delvecchio was certainly better than Sundin in other areas, and more versatile, but does anyone really think he was better offensively than Sundin?

Whether you look at the percentages or the finishes, I think the points come a little easier when you are centering Gordie Howe instead of Jonas Hoglund.

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10-26-2010, 07:09 AM
  #4
jarek
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Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
Delvecchio was certainly better than Sundin in other areas, and more versatile, but does anyone really think he was better offensively than Sundin?

Whether you look at the percentages or the finishes, I think the points come a little easier when you are centering Gordie Howe instead of Jonas Hoglund.
Well, there's this idea that Sundin isn't very good offensively, and I really don't think that is the case at all.

Also, as I said in my OP, I think this also nicely demonstrates the dangers of top-10s counting as well. Delvecchio's scoring finishes look very pretty because they're almost all top-10s, but after looking at the percentages, maybe they aren't that pretty.. but this wasn't meant as a knock on Delvecchio, this was an exercize I did for the benefit of the Leafs board ATD to hopefully get some more respect for Sundin's offense.

Here's another comparison:

Drillon: 104, 100, 93, 77, 76, 73, 69
Sundin: 89, 86, 86, 81, 78, 78, 77, 74

Drillon handily beats Sundin in 2 seasons, it's pretty close in the third, and then Sundin beats him the next 15 years.. o.O

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10-26-2010, 11:45 AM
  #5
seventieslord
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Sundin is a perfect example of a player you'll underrate by counting top-10 seasons.

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10-26-2010, 12:41 PM
  #6
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In the last ATD, I said that to me a Top 10 finish in the Original 6 era is approximately equal top a Top 20 finish in the modern (after the fall of the Iron Curtain) NHL. What happens if you compare Delvecchio's Top 10s with Sundin's Top 20s?

This all ignores linemates by the way. I'd say you need to remove Howe, at least from the early 50s... but considering he was Develcchio's linemate, I think it's fair to include him in percentage comparisons.

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Old
10-26-2010, 02:21 PM
  #7
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Career Points and Adjusted Points
PlayerGPGAPtsYrsAGAAAPts
Alex Delvecchio1,5494568251,281245019261427
Mats Sundin1,3465647851,349185998111410

Compared to 1st through 4th place finisher each year, best 3 consecutive seasons, best 5 seasons and average season

Best Single Season Scores
PlayerG1G2G3G4A1A2A3A4P1P2P3P4
Alex Delvecchio0.59520.96881.00001.00000.97961.00001.10261.13160.82140.88460.96721.0000
Mats Sundin0.78851.00001.00001.00000.78570.78570.84130.86670.83330.88890.94951.0000

PlayerG1G1 3CG1 5G1/YrsG2G2 3CG2 5G2/YrsG3G3 3CG3 5G3/YrsG4G4 3CG4 5G4/Yrs
Alex Delvecchio9.73681.70422.82750.405711.80782.19953.69190.492012.68962.45184.07930.528713.57132.68604.31760.5655
Mats Sundin10.16472.28463.74950.564711.33382.52694.05810.629711.70622.56044.14710.650312.09172.63804.22470.6718

PlayerA1A1 3CA1 5A1/YrsA2A2 3CA2 5A2/YrsA3A3 3CA3 5A3/YrsA4A4 3CA4 5A4/Yrs
Alex Delvecchio14.05802.38424.35390.585815.97652.70504.65720.665716.78742.88694.93560.699517.68322.96135.13010.7368
Mats Sundin10.17711.97463.56580.565411.08942.17493.73920.616111.70782.30123.97510.650412.10142.36924.07630.6723

PlayerP1P1 3CP1 5P1/YrsP2P2 3CP2 5P2/YrsP3P3 3CP3 5P3/YrsP4P4 3CP4 5P4/Yrs
Alex Delvecchio13.25812.21823.85170.552414.75482.37934.17760.614815.85222.55194.48320.660516.70592.68594.63330.6961
Mats Sundin11.52892.31053.88760.640512.36482.45134.20310.686913.30762.59354.39670.739313.74902.64704.56640.7638

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10-26-2010, 02:57 PM
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seventieslord
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jarek, in case you weren't aware, BM67 is the originator and king of "vs. #2" figures.

(now about those four decimal places...)

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10-26-2010, 02:58 PM
  #9
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I really wish I knew what all those numbers meant.. haha.

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10-26-2010, 05:41 PM
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seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jareklajkosz View Post
I really wish I knew what all those numbers meant.. haha.
They are just the percentages, in decimal form. 0.94 = 94%.

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10-26-2010, 08:46 PM
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I know THAT.. but I am unclear as to what each column represents.

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Old
03-02-2011, 09:28 AM
  #12
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CAST
Alex Delvecchio as himself
Mike Modano as himself
Jean Ratelle as himself
Mats Sundin as himself
Pierre Turgeon as himself
and featuring
Wayne Gretzky as Chuck Norris

Career Points and Adjusted Points
PlayerGPGAPtsYrsAGAAAPts
Alex Delvecchio1,5494568251,281245019261,427
Wayne Gretzky1,4878941,9632,857207581,7172,475
Mike Modano1,4595578021,359205748181,392
Jean Ratelle1,2814917761,267214587331,191
Mats Sundin1,3465647851,349185998111,410
Pierre Turgeon1,2945158121,327195177981,315

Gretzky is NHL only and doesn’t include his one WHA season.
Modano is through 09-10.

Compared to 1st through 4th place finisher each year, best 3 consecutive seasons, best 5 seasons and average season

Example: Iginla 52 goals, Guerin, Sundin & Murray 41 goals each, Naslund 40 goals

PlayerG1G2G3G4
Iginla1.00001.26831.26831.2683
Guerin0.78851.00001.00001.0000
Murray0.78851.00001.00001.0000
Sundin0.78851.00001.00001.0000
Naslund0.76920.97560.97560.9756

Best Single Season Scores
PlayerG1G2G3G4A1A2A3A4P1P2P3P4
Alex Delvecchio0.59520.96881.00001.00000.97961.00001.10261.13160.82140.88460.96721.0000
Wayne Gretzky1.00001.55361.61111.67271.00001.75271.81112.01231.00001.69441.71031.7227
Mike Modano0.83330.87720.89290.94340.74030.87690.90481.00000.84380.86170.90590.9625
Jean Ratelle0.74550.92000.92000.97870.93880.97181.00001.12500.89660.93161.00001.0283
Mats Sundin0.78851.00001.00001.00000.78570.78570.84130.86670.83330.88890.94951.0000
Pierre Turgeon0.76320.76320.84060.92060.81940.81940.93650.93650.82500.89190.92960.9635

G1 = Career total, G1 3C = Best 3 consecutive seasons, G1 5 = Best 5 seasons, G1/Yrs = Career total/seasons played

Goals
PlayerG1G1 3CG1 5G1/YrsG2G2 3CG2 5G2/YrsG3G3 3CG3 5G3/YrsG4G4 3CG4 5G4/Yrs
Alex Delvecchio9.73681.70422.82750.405711.80782.19953.69190.492012.68962.45184.07930.528713.57132.68604.31760.5655
Wayne Gretzky12.78143.00005.00000.639115.11324.06686.16400.755716.04894.32786.73450.802416.73644.52957.00490.8368
Mike Modano9.68281.93793.53880.484110.93102.30404.02910.546611.31782.34764.07860.565911.71232.46744.18350.5856
Jean Ratelle8.66662.02323.50400.412710.14892.24693.94960.483310.73172.33144.07330.511011.31842.51524.38690.5390
Mats Sundin10.16472.28463.74950.564711.33382.52694.05810.629711.70622.56044.14710.650312.09172.63804.22470.6718
Pierre Turgeon8.54852.10243.33340.44999.68372.17983.62510.509710.11822.31923.82710.532510.53512.43763.93340.5545

Assists
PlayerA1A1 3CA1 5A1/YrsA2A2 3CA2 5A2/YrsA3A3 3CA3 5A3/YrsA4A4 3CA4 5A4/Yrs
Alex Delvecchio14.05802.38424.35390.585815.97652.70504.65720.665716.78742.88694.93560.699517.68322.96135.13010.7368
Wayne Gretzky18.77323.00005.00000.938723.32765.04047.86601.166425.33415.22728.47721.266726.94875.65629.19311.3474
Mike Modano10.21042.15133.50050.510511.28352.39793.87000.564211.88232.46614.03230.594112.28422.64464.23930.6142
Jean Ratelle10.12082.30404.03030.481911.58502.67534.57400.551712.36152.74374.70200.588613.00692.79194.89680.6194
Mats Sundin10.17711.97463.56580.565411.08942.17493.73920.616111.70782.30123.97510.650412.10142.36924.07630.6723
Pierre Turgeon9.84052.13643.66960.517910.72772.13643.85200.564611.44912.30014.05630.602611.88242.35294.15060.6254

Points
PlayerP1P1 3CP1 5P1/YrsP2P2 3CP2 5P2/YrsP3P3 3CP3 5P3/YrsP4P4 3CP4 5P4/Yrs
Alex Delvecchio13.25812.21823.85170.552414.75482.37934.17760.614815.85222.55194.48320.660516.70592.68594.63330.6961
Wayne Gretzky17.54593.00005.00000.877322.30464.76007.96761.115223.61274.91418.18231.180624.59005.03458.38601.2295
Mike Modano11.38742.34003.85730.569412.21062.42914.07100.610513.13212.67104.35100.656613.58962.78864.51160.6795
Jean Ratelle10.27512.20533.97040.489311.43732.40504.41690.544612.29352.57654.70640.585413.15222.77264.88610.6263
Mats Sundin11.52892.31053.88760.640512.36482.45134.20310.686913.30762.59354.39670.739313.74902.64704.56640.7638
Pierre Turgeon10.44242.27333.71650.549611.34662.44764.04910.597212.25152.55404.31630.644812.67952.68194.43630.6673

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Old
03-02-2011, 10:03 AM
  #13
jarek
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So.. Pierre Turgeon is slightly worse than Sundin, offensively?

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Old
03-02-2011, 10:36 AM
  #14
seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boy Wonder View Post
So.. Pierre Turgeon is slightly worse than Sundin, offensively?
Yes... that was also my conclusion.

I realize all of BM's numbers can be intimidating . They are still intimidating to me. (actually, proper use of significant figures would make a big difference, cut off two decimals!)

if I had to direct you to one column, it would be in the "points" table, in the "P3 5" column. that is where the sum of the players' best 5 points percentage seasons are totaled. I normally say vs. 2 is the best way, but I remove outliers and BM doesn't, so vs. 3 is an even playing field for all these players.

As I expected, Ratelle is the highest. Delvecchio holds a slight edge on the rest (but was helped by Howe), then Sundin has a definite but small edge on Turgeon and Modano, who are extremely similar.

It's worth noting that the difference from Sundin to Turgeon there, is just 2%. Actually, from Ratelle to Turgeon is just 9%. I guess that was the point, to show comparable players. (with the exception of Gretzky, of course)

Are you in a better mood today? Or do you still think I'm just "using stats to make my players look better than they actually are"?

Thanks, BM, for the numbers.

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03-02-2011, 10:39 AM
  #15
jarek
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Yes... that was also my conclusion.

I realize all of BM's numbers can be intimidating . They are still intimidating to me. (actually, proper use of significant figures would make a big difference, cut off two decimals!)

if I had to direct you to one column, it would be in the "points" table, in the "P3 5" column. that is where the sum of the players' best 5 points percentage seasons are totaled. I normally say vs. 2 is the best way, but I remove outliers and BM doesn't, so vs. 3 is an even playing field for all these players.

As I expected, Ratelle is the highest. Delvecchio holds a slight edge on the rest (but was helped by Howe), then Sundin has a definite but small edge on Turgeon and Modano, who are extremely similar.

It's worth noting that the difference from Sundin to Turgeon there, is just 2%. Actually, from Ratelle to Turgeon is just 9%. I guess that was the point, to show comparable players. (with the exception of Gretzky, of course)

Are you in a better mood today? Or do you still think I'm just "using stats to make my players look better than they actually are"?

Thanks, BM, for the numbers.
I was in a foul mood for very different reasons.

I don't mind the use of numbers, as long as they are qualified. I have no problem accepting Turgeon as something close offensively to guys taken ahead of him. Guys gets underrated all the time. I just like to know that the comparisons that are being made as valid and legitimate. In this case, they seem to be.

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Old
03-02-2011, 10:44 AM
  #16
TheDevilMadeMe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Yes... that was also my conclusion.

I realize all of BM's numbers can be intimidating . They are still intimidating to me. (actually, proper use of significant figures would make a big difference, cut off two decimals!)
Seriously.

Such interesting information made.... so inaccessible.

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Old
03-02-2011, 10:54 AM
  #17
vecens24
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I'm not surprised to see Delvecchio and Sundin at least being comparable (even though it seems Delvecchio was probably a little bit better offensively by the numbers, yet again helped by Howe of course). However, Delvecchio is also a LW (has a 2nd team All-Star selection there actually), and has the intangible game in a landslide. I'd say those two things alone are good enough for a pretty decent sized disparity in when they are drafted. Delvecchio should go around 100 I'd say, and Sundin somwhere around 170 I'd say.

I'd say these things are pretty much nothing new in my mind, even though I admittedly did a pretty fair amount of research on Delvecchio this time since i selected him.

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03-02-2011, 11:33 AM
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seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vecens24 View Post
I'm not surprised to see Delvecchio and Sundin at least being comparable (even though it seems Delvecchio was probably a little bit better offensively by the numbers, yet again helped by Howe of course). However, Delvecchio is also a LW (has a 2nd team All-Star selection there actually), and has the intangible game in a landslide. I'd say those two things alone are good enough for a pretty decent sized disparity in when they are drafted. Delvecchio should go around 100 I'd say, and Sundin somwhere around 170 I'd say.

I'd say these things are pretty much nothing new in my mind, even though I admittedly did a pretty fair amount of research on Delvecchio this time since i selected him.
You're absolutely right there on both counts.

Past the 50th pick, if there are two players with equal results, one who is a winger and one who is a center, the center should get picked after the winger. Positional scarcity matters.

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03-02-2011, 02:45 PM
  #19
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We could also look at it this way. There is only 6 swedes that has scored 100 points in a season.

Loob, Nilsson, Alfredsson, Mats Näslund, Markus Näslund and Sundin. Only one has done it more than once, Nilsson, twice.

Loob is the only one whos broken 50 goals in a season.

None has assisted on more than 90 goals (Forsberg had 86 in '96) but Sundin is 6th here.

Don't know why I'm rambling these useless stats though. Guess I need something to do.

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03-07-2011, 03:22 PM
  #20
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Goals: Seasons with percentage scores 40%+ vs 1-2-3-4
PlayerYears40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Alex Delvecchio2414-20-20-229-11-15-180-5-6-90-2-4-50-1-2-30-1-1-10-0-1-1
Wayne Gretzky2016-16-17-1712-14-15-1510-13-13-138-11-12-137-9-10-106-7-7-95-5-5-7
Mike Modano2014-16-17-178-11-12-135-7-9-92-4-5-61-3-3-30-0-0-20-0-0-0
Jean Ratelle2111-14-15-159-12-14-154-8-9-103-4-4-60-2-4-40-1-1-30-0-0-0
Mats Sundin1816-17-17-1712-16-16-168-11-12-144-7-7-80-2-3-40-1-1-10-1-1-1
Pierre Turgeon1912-13-13-139-11-12-124-8-9-112-4-5-70-0-2-20-0-0-10-0-0-0

Assists: Seasons with percentage scores 40%+ vs 1-2-3-4
PlayerYears40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Alex Delvecchio2420-22-22-2217-19-22-2213-16-18-189-14-15-153-7-8-122-2-6-70-2-2-4
Wayne Gretzky2020-20-20-2020-20-20-2019-19-19-1918-19-19-1917-18-19-1916-16-17-1816-16-16-16
Mike Modano2015-17-17-1811-14-15-156-8-8-92-6-7-70-1-2-30-0-1-10-0-0-1
Jean Ratelle2114-15-15-1511-14-14-158-11-14-146-7-9-101-5-6-71-3-4-40-0-2-2
Mats Sundin1816-17-17-1713-15-16-169-11-12-132-6-7-80-0-3-30-0-0-00-0-0-0
Pierre Turgeon1914-17-17-1710-13-14-159-9-12-123-5-6-71-1-2-40-0-1-10-0-0-0

Points: Seasons with percentage scores 40%+ vs 1-2-3-4
PlayerYears40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Alex Delvecchio2420-21-22-2217-19-19-2210-15-17-196-8-13-142-5-7-100-0-1-20-0-0-1
Wayne Gretzky2020-20-20-2018-19-19-1918-18-19-1916-16-18-1815-16-17-1712-15-16-1611-13-15-16
Mike Modano2017-18-18-1914-15-16-168-11-12-134-7-8-93-3-7-70-0-1-20-0-0-0
Jean Ratelle2115-15-15-1512-14-14-149-10-12-134-8-9-103-4-6-80-3-4-60-0-1-2
Mats Sundin1816-17-17-1716-16-17-1714-15-16-166-9-14-141-4-7-80-0-2-20-0-0-1
Pierre Turgeon1915-16-17-1711-14-14-149-12-12-124-7-10-101-2-6-70-0-1-10-0-0-0

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Old
03-07-2011, 07:16 PM
  #21
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Nice job on the counting how many seasons a player had with a certain percentage benchmark. That was something I was thinking of working on some day.

Is this something you have available? Or did you just put this together for this small group of players?

I'll just throw this out there and see if you take the bait.... I wonder if my claim that Bucyk has more seasons with 60% as many points as the #2 scorer, than anyone except Howe and Gretzky, is true.

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03-07-2011, 07:35 PM
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Nalyd Psycho
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As strange as it may be, Bourque is probably the most likely to steal that crown.

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03-07-2011, 08:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jkrx View Post
We could also look at it this way. There is only 6 swedes that has scored 100 points in a season.
Loob, Nilsson, Alfredsson, Mats Näslund, Markus Näslund and Sundin. Only one has done it more than once, Nilsson, twice.
Uh..Henrik Sedin had 112 pts last year. And it looks like both of them may break 100 this year.

EDIT: And don't forget Forsberg in his Art Ross year.

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03-07-2011, 10:51 PM
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seventieslord
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Originally Posted by Nalyd Psycho View Post
As strange as it may be, Bourque is probably the most likely to steal that crown.
Hmm, you may be right. I'm thinking that maybe there are a couple of years where both Mario and Wayne are on, that he wouldn't make it. Or 1995-96, when Mario and Jagr tore it up. Or 1992-93

Without looking, he would probably do it with outliers removed, which is how I prefer to do it.

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03-08-2011, 06:37 AM
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Since Bucyk's 18 60%+ seasons is more seasons than most players have in their career, I'd have to think so. A quick check shows a bunch at 15 seasons.

He is a freak though. 1 season in the 40% range, 0 at the 50% range, 11 at the 60% range (5 under 65%), 3 at 70%, and 4 at 80%, with 89% being his highest.

Bourque only has 8 60%+ seasons vs #2. He has a career low of 74% vs the #2 scoring defenseman though.

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