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Carter close to signing 10-year deal (post #441 and #675); Leino update (# 675)

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Old
11-12-2010, 10:19 AM
  #576
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
And sometimes spot on.
When you are NOT talking about Jeff Carter, I would agree. Your post the other day about Renberg, etc. was "spot on."

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11-12-2010, 10:21 AM
  #577
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Finally we have a great coach, a terrific goalie, phenomenal defense and awesome offense yet people can't enjoy what's right in front of their faces.
You go girl!

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11-12-2010, 10:23 AM
  #578
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Originally Posted by healthyscratch View Post
I don't know why everyone is dreaming of a 6m or less cap hit.

Looking at Eric Staal and Rick Nash, similar age and stats, here are their recent contract extensions and cap hits

Rick Nash: 8 years, 62.4m, 7.8m cap hit
Eric Staal: 7 years, 57.25m, 8.25 cap hit


So unless Carter gives a severe hometown discount, I'm thinking any cap hit around 6m is a pure pipe dream.

Get ready for 7.5+...
If it's $7.5 million, I'm not a happy Flyers fan. Nash and Staal ARE their respective teams, so the comparison is difficult to make. The fact that Staal makes more than Nash is mind boggling, by the way.

If it's a reasonable cap hit, I still don't like 10 years but I could live with it.

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11-12-2010, 10:24 AM
  #579
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Originally Posted by JojoTheWhale View Post
You're just throwing out nonsensical generalities at this point. Look at the specifics of the situation.

Even Mike Milbury wouldn't sign Jeff Carter to a $7.7m/year contract, so forget even the thought of 4 1sts. The offer would have to be about $6.2m/year to get 2 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd. Since that's around the upper end of the realm of possibility for the value of his deal, no GM is going to offer $6.2 when $6.1 and under saves him an extra 1st rounder. So now you're talking about Carter for 10 years at say $5.75m or cap space and one 1st, a 2nd, and a 3rd. Do you really think that 1st is going to be a top 5 pick? What's the likelihood of any of those draft picks or a free agent being the player that Carter is now? This is a team that's trying to win a Cup.

Off the top of my head, the most recent offensive weapons to change teams as a UFA in that price range were Cammalleri and Havlat. If you're signing someone as an RFA, then you're just switching the draft pick deck chairs around.

If you look at the structure of the Flyers' contracts, their key resignings are pretty spaced out. In all likelihood, they wouldn't have to move Briere until the last year of his deal, because it happens to line up with Giroux needing another contract.
If the value and talent level of Carter is as high as those who seem to think he is it means he is a perennial 40 goal scorer in the NHL, so any GM in the NHL would give up anything, including a top RW who could fill in on the wing and a couple draft picks/prospects, so it is not like a deal for Carter is just losing him for nothing.

This is where the misconception is generally located, you are not just losing Carter, you are getting something of value in return. If his value is as high as everyone seems to think than it should be a top tier type salary and compensation, yes? It is the age old Homerism, he is the greatest scorer in the NHL, but he will sign in Philly for less money because he likes it here and no one else would offer him that type of money........

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11-12-2010, 10:25 AM
  #580
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
If the value and talent level of Carter is as high as those who seem to think he is it means he is a perennial 40 goal scorer in the NHL, so any GM in the NHL would give up anything, including a top RW who could fill in on the wing and a couple draft picks/prospects, so it is not like a deal for Carter is just losing him for nothing.

This is where the misconception is generally located, you are not just losing Carter, you are getting something of value in return. If his value is as high as everyone seems to think than it should be a top tier type salary and compensation, yes? It is the age old Homerism, he is the greatest scorer in the NHL, but he will sign in Philly for less money because he likes it here and no one else would offer him that type of money........
Stop. Cease. Desist. I do not see anyone saying he is a PERENNIAL 40-goal scorer.

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11-12-2010, 10:26 AM
  #581
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Originally Posted by mikedifr View Post
That isnt Carter's problem. Carter's problem is he is invisible on too many nights and doesnt have the intensity of someone who should be paid like a top player in the league.....and he doesnt show up come playoff time, hurt or not. When I say intensity, I dont mean the guy needs to be out there playing mean like Lindros, that isnt his game, but use the size/speed to get in on the forecheck, and defensively on a consistent basis. How does a guy with that ability only have 2 hattricks in his career?

A guy that should be a consistent 40+ goal 80+ point guy and has had one really good season.

So far he has shown to me that he is the pay for potentil/always wanting more from him type of player. I rather move him and get value for him and go with Briere/Giroux/Richards down the middle for now, when Briere's age catches up to him, Giroux/Richards for the rest of their careers.

I really hope the guy proves me wrong though
Couldn't agree more with your post sure He had a great game last night but you can almost guarantee he will be invisible in the next 5 games posting maybe 2 points trade him now

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11-12-2010, 10:27 AM
  #582
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Originally Posted by Flyskippy View Post
When you are NOT talking about Jeff Carter, I would agree. Your post the other day about Renberg, etc. was "spot on."
Well, I have to be honest....it was kind of a blind comparison between Renberg and Carter.

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11-12-2010, 10:29 AM
  #583
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Originally Posted by Flyskippy View Post
Stop. Cease. Desist. I do not see anyone saying he is a PERENNIAL 40-goal scorer.
But I thought he was not a guy who scored in only 50% of his games? The only time he was not that player was when he scored 46 goals, which means for him to get back to the more consistent scorer he needs to reach that level if he is going to get paid the money and years being bounced around.

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11-12-2010, 10:31 AM
  #584
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Originally Posted by healthyscratch View Post
I don't know why everyone is dreaming of a 6m or less cap hit.

Looking at Eric Staal and Rick Nash, similar age and stats, here are their recent contract extensions and cap hits

Rick Nash: 8 years, 62.4m, 7.8m cap hit
Eric Staal: 7 years, 57.25m, 8.25 cap hit


So unless Carter gives a severe hometown discount, I'm thinking any cap hit around 6m is a pure pipe dream.

Get ready for 7.5+...
Those teams don't have a whole lot of star-calibre offense other than those said players. Also, you could argue they are less of hockey markets (desirable). My argument is they would cost more to retain. And finally, at least for Eric Staal, he's a better player. Also, we are talking about a 10 year deal here.

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11-12-2010, 10:31 AM
  #585
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
Well, I have to be honest....it was kind of a blind comparison between Renberg and Carter.
it's ok, i accidentally made a great comparison of datsyuk and carter. perhaps we have an instinct.

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11-12-2010, 10:32 AM
  #586
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Originally Posted by healthyscratch View Post
I don't know why everyone is dreaming of a 6m or less cap hit.

Looking at Eric Staal and Rick Nash, similar age and stats, here are their recent contract extensions and cap hits

Rick Nash: 8 years, 62.4m, 7.8m cap hit
Eric Staal: 7 years, 57.25m, 8.25 cap hit


So unless Carter gives a severe hometown discount, I'm thinking any cap hit around 6m is a pure pipe dream.

Get ready for 7.5+...
Both are clearly better players than Carter.

Nash even put up those points from the Wing and had already put up 2 40-goal seasons and one of 38 by the time he got that deal.

As good as Carter's 08-09 was, Staal's 05-06 blows it out of the water, and he followed it up with 2 more consecutive excellent years at 24 (It's only one year difference, but it does count for something.). You can't ignore the Cup either.

And, whether it makes sense or not, both of those deals are clear Face of the Franchise contracts, which Carter is not in any way.

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11-12-2010, 10:32 AM
  #587
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
Well, I have to be honest....it was kind of a blind comparison between Renberg and Carter.


Renberg's abdominal injuries ruined his career. Renberg was my favorite at the time of his trade to Tampa. In fact, his was the 1st jersey I ever bought with my own cash.

Carter's career is nothing like Renberg's. Renberg had a great rookie season he could not duplicate.

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11-12-2010, 10:33 AM
  #588
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
But I thought he was not a guy who scored in only 50% of his games? The only time he was not that player was when he scored 46 goals, which means for him to get back to the more consistent scorer he needs to reach that level if he is going to get paid the money and years being bounced around.
Now you're fudging the definition of scoring in half his games. Goals or points? Make up your mind.

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11-12-2010, 10:34 AM
  #589
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If it's $7.5 million, I'm not a happy Flyers fan. Nash and Staal ARE their respective teams, so the comparison is difficult to make. The fact that Staal makes more than Nash is mind boggling, by the way.

If it's a reasonable cap hit, I still don't like 10 years but I could live with it.
I agree with ya on the cap hit, CG. But the Flyers are Richards AND Carter. That's obvious now with talk of a 10 year extension. They are the franchise. And as I showed with Nash and Staal, the going rate in today's market is 7.5+ per year. I would be very shocked, albeit thrilled, to get anything near a 7 per year cap hit.

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11-12-2010, 10:39 AM
  #590
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
If the value and talent level of Carter is as high as those who seem to think he is it means he is a perennial 40 goal scorer in the NHL, so any GM in the NHL would give up anything, including a top RW who could fill in on the wing and a couple draft picks/prospects, so it is not like a deal for Carter is just losing him for nothing.

This is where the misconception is generally located, you are not just losing Carter, you are getting something of value in return. If his value is as high as everyone seems to think than it should be a top tier type salary and compensation, yes? It is the age old Homerism, he is the greatest scorer in the NHL, but he will sign in Philly for less money because he likes it here and no one else would offer him that type of money........
Where did I say he was a perennial 40-goal scorer? He's a perennial 30-goal scorer who plays solid but not spectacular defense, with the potential to hit 40+ in his better years.

Again, you're throwing out generalities. Show me where this match is for a Carter deal. Do you really want to ship him to Edmonton for Penner and a pick? Anaheim isn't giving you Bobby Ryan. The problem is that, just as is so often the case, Carter is worth more to the Flyers than he is to other teams. You can't just say you're getting "something of value back." You have to have a match to make a deal and it has to be before next season starts or you're letting him walk as a UFA and getting nothing but cap space.

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11-12-2010, 10:43 AM
  #591
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Originally Posted by JojoTheWhale View Post
Both are clearly better players than Carter.
Clearly? Are they?

Rick Nash 531gp 233g 199a 432pts .81ppg
Eric Staal 495gp 199g 244a 443pts .88ppg
Carter 397gp 153g 138a 291pts .73ppg

They're pretty damn close. And it's not like Carter doesn't do everything and he plays the all important center position, kills penalties and plays the powerplay and is assistant captain. Not sure how you come up with "clearly better players".

Let's face it, Richards and Carter are the Philadelphia Flyers. A ten year extension assures you of that. Any cap hit will be 7m+. Easily.

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11-12-2010, 10:44 AM
  #592
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That isnt Carter's problem. Carter's problem is he is invisible on too many nights and doesnt have the intensity of someone who should be paid like a top player in the league.....and he doesnt show up come playoff time, hurt or not. When I say intensity, I dont mean the guy needs to be out there playing mean like Lindros, that isnt his game, but use the size/speed to get in on the forecheck, and defensively on a consistent basis. How does a guy with that ability only have 2 hattricks in his career?

A guy that should be a consistent 40+ goal 80+ point guy and has had one really good season.

So far he has shown to me that he is the pay for potentil/always wanting more from him type of player. I rather move him and get value for him and go with Briere/Giroux/Richards down the middle for now, when Briere's age catches up to him, Giroux/Richards for the rest of their careers.

I really hope the guy proves me wrong though
Apparently Carter's problem is that he hasn't established himself as a clear cut HoF player at the age of 25. I mean bashing a guy for not being a 40+/80+ guy consistently is *ing ridiculous.

Rick Nash: 40 goals twice in 7 years, and has never hit 80 points.
Eric Staal: 40 goals twice in 6 years, 2 80 point seasons.
Thomas Vanek: 2 40 goal seasons, 1 80 points season.
Zach Parise: 1 40 goal season, 2 80 point seasons.

I mean... seriously, look around. If 40+/80+ consistently is the bar you're going to set for a guy, then you're going to be disappointed in pretty much everyone below the superstar level.

Your sacred cow Briere was just beginning to establish himself in the NHL when he was Carter's age, and that was actually when he got dealt to Buffalo with a 3rd round pick for Chris Gratton and a 4th.

Giroux, for all that he does, has not established that he's all that strong at producing at even strength yet. Same goes for Richards, who is an OK offensive player at even strength, while a stellar PP player.

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11-12-2010, 10:44 AM
  #593
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Originally Posted by JojoTheWhale View Post
Where did I say he was a perennial 40-goal scorer? He's a perennial 30-goal scorer who plays solid but not spectacular defense, with the potential to hit 40+ in his better years.

Again, you're throwing out generalities. Show me where this match is for a Carter deal. Do you really want to ship him to Edmonton for Penner and a pick? Anaheim isn't giving you Bobby Ryan. The problem is that, just as is so often the case, Carter is worth more to the Flyers than he is to other teams. You can't just say you're getting "something of value back." You have to have a match to make a deal and it has to be before next season starts or you're letting him walk as a UFA and getting nothing but cap space.
To the Carter haters (or anyone who has a favorite Flyers scapegoat), trading their object of revulsion is addition by subtraction. Of course, when a player is traded and performs similarly elsewhere, questions such as, "Why couldn't he do that here?!?" arise.

EDIT: And when he blossoms elsewhere because he is coming into his prime, that REALLY gets their dander up.

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11-12-2010, 10:46 AM
  #594
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Apparently Carter's problem is that he hasn't established himself as a clear cut HoF player at the age of 25. I mean bashing a guy for not being a 40+/80+ guy consistently is *ing ridiculous.

Rick Nash: 40 goals twice in 7 years, and has never hit 80 points.
Eric Staal: 40 goals twice in 6 years, 2 80 point seasons.
Thomas Vanek: 2 40 goal seasons, 1 80 points season.
Zach Parise: 1 40 goal season, 2 80 point seasons.

I mean... seriously, look around. If 40+/80+ consistently is the bar you're going to set for a guy, then you're going to be disappointed in pretty much everyone below the superstar level.

Your sacred cow Briere was just beginning to establish himself in the NHL when he was Carter's age, and that was actually when he got dealt to Buffalo with a 3rd round pick for Chris Gratton and a 4th.

Giroux, for all that he does, has not established that he's all that strong at producing at even strength yet. Same goes for Richards, who is an OK offensive player at even strength, while a stellar PP player.
Bolded for truth.

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11-12-2010, 10:48 AM
  #595
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I agree with ya on the cap hit, CG. But the Flyers are Richards AND Carter. That's obvious now with talk of a 10 year extension. They are the franchise. And as I showed with Nash and Staal, the going rate in today's market is 7.5+ per year. I would be very shocked, albeit thrilled, to get anything near a 7 per year cap hit.
Ah, not necessarily.

The market has been moving away from those monster cap hit contracts. Partly because of the restructuring to really long deals, but also because there is simply less money out there than there used to be. Now, I think people are deluding themselves if they think Richards' 5.75M number is going to be the ceiling for this team on shorter deals, but I would be shocked to see anything like a 7.5M number.

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Originally Posted by JojoTheWhale View Post
Where did I say he was a perennial 40-goal scorer? He's a perennial 30-goal scorer who plays solid but not spectacular defense, with the potential to hit 40+ in his better years.

Again, you're throwing out generalities. Show me where this match is for a Carter deal. Do you really want to ship him to Edmonton for Penner and a pick? Anaheim isn't giving you Bobby Ryan. The problem is that, just as is so often the case, Carter is worth more to the Flyers than he is to other teams. You can't just say you're getting "something of value back." You have to have a match to make a deal and it has to be before next season starts or you're letting him walk as a UFA and getting nothing but cap space.
Cartsiephan operates almost exclusively in platitudes and paper tigers... just a heads up.

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11-12-2010, 10:59 AM
  #596
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Originally Posted by healthyscratch View Post
Clearly? Are they?

Rick Nash 531gp 233g 199a 432pts .81ppg
Eric Staal 495gp 199g 244a 443pts .88ppg
Carter 397gp 153g 138a 291pts .73ppg

They're pretty damn close. And it's not like Carter doesn't do everything and he plays the all important center position, kills penalties and plays the powerplay and is assistant captain. Not sure how you come up with "clearly better players".

Let's face it, Richards and Carter are the Philadelphia Flyers. A ten year extension assures you of that. Any cap hit will be 7m+. Easily.
For my money, Nash is the best RW in the world. He outperformed Carter offensively with a significantly worse team and linemates, and did it as Captain. I don't put that much weight into the Captain issue, but only state it in response to Carter having the A.

Staal is a little bit better than Carter at everything, except significantly better as a playmaker. When he signed the contract, he already had a massive Cup run and win.

To me, yeah, they are. I understand if you feel differently. They're certainly all excellent players.

If we're talking something like 7/70, and you could certainly be right, then it's probably going to mean Leino has no place, or Carle is moved. I can't say I'd be a big fan of either of those scenarios.

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11-12-2010, 11:00 AM
  #597
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Quote:
Originally Posted by healthyscratch View Post
I don't know why everyone is dreaming of a 6m or less cap hit.

Looking at Eric Staal and Rick Nash, similar age and stats, here are their recent contract extensions and cap hits

Rick Nash: 8 years, 62.4m, 7.8m cap hit
Eric Staal: 7 years, 57.25m, 8.25 cap hit


So unless Carter gives a severe hometown discount, I'm thinking any cap hit around 6m is a pure pipe dream.

Get ready for 7.5+...
Eric Staal has a 100 pt season and has three season of 38+ goals. Not really a great comparison. You pay a huge premium for a little more production. Rick Nash is a high-scoring winger. You will also pay more to have a winger who can regularly get around 70 points (with no linemates).

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11-12-2010, 11:07 AM
  #598
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Originally Posted by JojoTheWhale View Post
Both are clearly better players than Carter.

Nash even put up those points from the Wing and had already put up 2 40-goal seasons and one of 38 by the time he got that deal.

As good as Carter's 08-09 was, Staal's 05-06 blows it out of the water, and he followed it up with 2 more consecutive excellent years at 24 (It's only one year difference, but it does count for something.). You can't ignore the Cup either.

And, whether it makes sense or not, both of those deals are clear Face of the Franchise contracts, which Carter is not in any way.
Maybe this is part of the confusion, is Carter the 40 goal scorer, ppg player people are claiming, or is he a 30-30-60pt player that others suggest? Agents could care less whether it is a "face of the franchise" contract, they look at comparisons and then say..."this is what we want, make it work, but this is the number we want".....then it is up to the GM to make it work. Homer loves the 10 year deals, so I would guess it would balance out to be 10 years, $6.5mill, $65mill/deal.

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11-12-2010, 11:11 AM
  #599
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Believe me, I hope all you guys are right, and I'm waaaay offbase. I understand all your counterpoints But I just don't see how his extension comes in anywhere near a 6m hit.

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11-12-2010, 11:11 AM
  #600
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Now you're fudging the definition of scoring in half his games. Goals or points? Make up your mind.
He had 84pts I think, but goals constitute a majority of his scoring so it most likely will have a direct correlation to his point totals. Carter is never going to be the player who is going to average more assists than goals.

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