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Why don't our top prospects dominate ?

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Old
11-11-2010, 03:12 PM
  #1
scott99
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Why don't our top prospects dominate ?

We've been picking pretty high for a couple of years now, and none of our top prospects ever seem to dominate. Look at our top three picks this year.

Niederreiter 6gp 1g 3a 4pts
Nelson 10gp 1g 3a 4pts
Kabanov 4gp 0g 0a 0pts

I'm really high on all three of them, but if you take a gander at the other picks from the first round, (talent wise, Kabanov was rated first round talent), they all seem to be dominating junior hockey or playing well in college. It's really disappointing, that year after year, except for Tavares, our top picks don't dominate. Even DeHaan, in his THIRD season in junior hockey should be tearing it up, but is just about a point a game. It's like a curse. I still have high hopes for Niederreiter, Nelson & Kabanov, but it's frustrating to see others dominate and do so well. Hell even Joel Skinner is averaging a point a game, IN THE NHL ! It's not all about point totals, but it would be nice to see some sort of progression.

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11-11-2010, 03:15 PM
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Paulinho
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De Haan is doing very well.

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11-11-2010, 03:19 PM
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Brunomics
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Hamonic is doing good, Anders Nielsen and Kevin Poulin are playing great, so is Anders Lee and Casey Cizikas

Nino will catch his groove again down there, Brock is a first year guy I'm sure he's not getting that much playing time yet and Kabanov has played 2 games on 2 different teams with a big lull inbetween as well.

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11-11-2010, 03:43 PM
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Doug Height
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It's been 6 games for Nino, might take him a bit to get re-adjusted.

There is nothing wrong with averaging a ppg as a defenseman. I would rather see CDH improving his defensive game anyway.

Stats really should be taken with a grain of salt though. I remember many getting excited over Dibo atfer he had some big seasons, and he hasn't amounted to anything.


Last edited by Doug Height: 11-11-2010 at 03:48 PM.
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11-11-2010, 03:57 PM
  #5
Sidney the Kidney
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I think it's more a case of unrealistic or overly high expectations, as opposed to prospects that aren't "dominating".

Make no mistake the following happens amongst all fan bases, so I'm not singling the Isles fans out. But there tends to be a tendency to see a prospect as much better, or project to having a much higher ceiling, than is necessarily the case. And with these unrealistic expectations, the questions arise about why so and so isn't doing better than he is, or why so and so's numbers look merely "good" as opposed to "great".

De Haan is actually a good example of this. No offense to the OP, but to question De Haan's season so far is a bit silly. He's "just a point per game", as if that's bad? De Haan isn't supposed to be the next Drew Doughty, so I'm not exactly sure what sort of numbers he's expected to put up? He's a solid prospect who has the potential (ie. might reach it, might fall a level short) to be a top pairing puck moving defenseman. His stats (and more importantly, his play) are exactly what they should be.

Then there's the "Russian" love. Guys like Petrov and Kabanov may pan out as solid NHL players. But too often, I've seen posts that make it seem like it's only a matter of time until the Isles have the equivalent of Kovalchuk and Semin in their line up with these two, when the reality is you're more likely to have the equivalent of Afinogenov and Ponikarovsky (if even that) with these two. In other words, that's not to say they're not going to be NHL players or outright suck. But that expecting them to be something they're not is what leads to unrealistic expectations and disappointment when they don't live up to them.

Nino's off to a slow start offensively in his return to Portland, but again, temper expectations. He's not likely to be a consistent 40-goal man in the NHL, but more likely someone similar to a David Backes or Dustin Brown (ie. physical top 6 winger who can possibly reach 30, but probably more in the 20 to 25 goal range). But some fans seem to expect the reincarnation of Cam Neely with him instead.

If you look at the Isles prospects objectively, and try not to think of them as all in terms of can't miss superstars, you'll see that they're actually producing around what they should be producing -- which is that of solid, and in some cases good players, but not necessarily the elite players that they're sometimes made out to project to.

Temper your expectations and suddenly you'll notice they're, for the most part, doing quite well.

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11-11-2010, 04:15 PM
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Hipster Doofus
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Petrov has been dominant in the KHL since getting icetime after the trade. His team has crawled from the cellers to being in the mix.

Anders Lee is at nearly a goal per game in the NCAA (this is a guy to watch. He tore the **** out of the USHL and if he continues at this pace in the NCAA he may need to be signed to a pro-contract cause 7 goals in 9 games is just a man amongst boys. Fantastic athlete, this his second season committing full time to hockey. Just unreal.).

Ullstrom has 7 in 10 games as an AHL rookie.

Poulin has a 1.75 GAA with a .940 SV% as an AHL rookie.

We have some prospects having standout years.

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Old
11-11-2010, 04:16 PM
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Chapin Landvogt
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sidney the Kidney View Post
Nino's off to a slow start offensively in his return to Portland.... But some fans seem to expect the reincarnation of Cam Neely with him instead.
C'mon man... we all know he's can be way better than Neely.

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11-11-2010, 04:31 PM
  #8
Chapin Landvogt
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To the prospects mentioned in the OP:
1) Niederreiter showed he's gonna be a good NHLer. He busted his balls doing everything to stick here and is now back where most the hockey world feels he should be. Ironically, he's gone back to a situation that isn't the most ideal for him, because he joined a team that was kickin' buttocks AND he's now back up against kids his age after having been fed pucks and forced to skate with guys of a whole other caliber. We shouldn't downplay the significance of his first 15 games in Portland, which ultimately will serve as an adjustment period for him, his coach and his teammates. On the other hand, he's a sure-fire WJC big minute player and could be firing on all cylinders by the WHL and CHL playoffs, where Portland is a favorite coming out of the W.

2) Nelson: For me at least, this kid has long-term project written all over him. Sure we'll follow now, but I don't expect to be seeing tangible results until at least his junior year in college. That's alright though since we have a good bucket of kids closer to the bigs and can take all the time in the world for a guy who has a lovely combo of size and skills. However, when all is said and done, don't be TOO surprised if he's little more than the Ranger$' center Boyle.

3) Kabanov: To be honest, the best way to go about following him is to pretend he's not even there. Then, if all of the stars are aligned properly and he ends up being a player, BOOM, we've got quite a cherry on top (and likely a cherrypicker up front:-).

Prospects:
We know Martin will likely have a role over the long run. He's given us lots of reason to believe he'll be a long-time fan favorite, even if his offensive abilities pan out at about that of a Mike Rupp.

I also worry little about our guys eventually coming into the NHL, as I realistically see an NHL future of some sort for no less than Koskinen, Hamonic, de Haan, Donovan, Niederreiter, Lee, Ullstrom and even Cizikas. Petrov is, in my mind, a surefire NHLer once his availability is cleared up. In fact, he may be the greatest offensive hope in the organization, and I'm not leaving Tavares and Bailey out of that equation(!!!).

In addition, I'd bet money that at least two of Nilsson, Poulin, Katic, Kohn, Kessel, Ness, Rakhshani, Joensuu and especially Gregoire make the bigs in a regular capacity of some sort.

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11-11-2010, 04:53 PM
  #9
HyeDray
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If Snow wants to shake things up it is the prospects he should look to before make a deal, or firing Gordon.

Frankly at this point I would give Ulstrom, Joensuu and Hamonic a look.

Ulstrom and Joensuu are playing well in BP, and have size. It may do the Isles well to have a few players sit a few games. Perhaps Bailey and Comeau can watch and see if that sparks a fire under them. Ulstrom and Joensuu both have big bodies and since we lost Jurcina and MacDonald size has been a factor.

Defensively, Gervais needs to go. I would like to add Hamonic into the mix for a few games and see if his "edge" can contribute to the back end.

I can't help but feel like we are being pushed around.

One thing is clear the hitting Wiz was doing at the beginning of the year is not happening. The same for Comeau and Bailey. These players play better when they are physically "in" the game.

Firing the coach is not the answer. A spark is needed.

All this to point out our prospects tend to be slower developers but are coming along well.

Hamonic, Petrov, Poulin, Martin, Cizakas, Lee have all done very well despite being later round pics and later bloomers.

In the case of Ulstrom and DiBeneditto I thought both had EXCELLENT camps, and would like to see what they can do here with the team struggling.

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11-11-2010, 05:59 PM
  #10
Seph
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Nino just started his second year of NA hockey and just turned 18, not to mention just got returned to a team that has one of the hottest first lines in hockey, so his role is a little less offensive and he's not getting the same minutes he was. Plus, his offensive game is still fairly raw, that's why he's in juniors so he can refine that. Nelson is even more raw, and he will need longer to develop. Both these guys are going to take some time, so be patient here.

Kabanov is not dominating for the very reasons he dropped to the third round and we were able to draft him. It doesn't matter if he was considered first round talent when no GM in the league viewed him as a 1st or even a 2nd round player.

DeHaan at "only" a ppg pace is top 5 in the OHL for points by a defenseman, and from what I understand he has improved a lot defensively and is dominant at controlling the game from the backend.

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11-11-2010, 06:07 PM
  #11
DPSNAGS
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HyeDray View Post
If Snow wants to shake things up it is the prospects he should look to before make a deal, or firing Gordon.

Frankly at this point I would give Ulstrom, Joensuu and Hamonic a look.

Ulstrom and Joensuu are playing well in BP, and have size. It may do the Isles well to have a few players sit a few games. Perhaps Bailey and Comeau can watch and see if that sparks a fire under them. Ulstrom and Joensuu both have big bodies and since we lost Jurcina and MacDonald size has been a factor.

Defensively, Gervais needs to go. I would like to add Hamonic into the mix for a few games and see if his "edge" can contribute to the back end.

I can't help but feel like we are being pushed around.

One thing is clear the hitting Wiz was doing at the beginning of the year is not happening. The same for Comeau and Bailey. These players play better when they are physically "in" the game.

Firing the coach is not the answer. A spark is needed.

All this to point out our prospects tend to be slower developers but are coming along well.

Hamonic, Petrov, Poulin, Martin, Cizakas, Lee have all done very well despite being later round pics and later bloomers.

In the case of Ulstrom and DiBeneditto I thought both had EXCELLENT camps, and would like to see what they can do here with the team struggling.
i dont understand the reasoning behind doing this...this is ullstrom 1st year playing NA hockey, why rush him into the nhl where he will most likely struggle and have his confiedence shattered...keep him in the ahl and let progress...same thing with hamonic, this is his first season in the AHL, he didn't out rightmake the nhl roster, why hurt his development to make a point to the nhlers

JJ could be called up since hes been playing in bridgeport for a while but the isles need to solve their problems on their own and not hurt the development of their prospects

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Old
11-13-2010, 10:17 AM
  #12
Chazz
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I wouldnt rush any of their young stars to the Show.

I was at the Montreal game earlier this year when Nino was being thrown/tossed around, so i am happy they sent him down.

these kids will all be very good, no need to rush things.

Plus Islanders will probably get another top pick this year, wow!

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Old
11-13-2010, 11:44 PM
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thrillhous
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Isles fans should be very happy to see Petrov finally being given an opportunity to show what he can do. And he is putting up numbers.

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Old
11-14-2010, 12:51 AM
  #14
Brain Hemorrhage
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Domination isn't necessarily important. What is important is that at every level the player makes a smooth transition, and is developed quickly and effectively.

Cases in point:
  • Justin Mapletoft
  • Jason Krog

Mapletoft led the WHL in scoring as an overager, but aside from the AHL playoffs his first year in the AHL, he struggled to put up points. He was also a marginal skater and lacked agility.

Krog was a Hobey Baker Award Winner (best NCAA player). He never amounted to anything after we signed him to that big contract out of college. Despite averaging over 2 points per game his senior year in college, he couldn't even muster half a point per game his first year in on the farm...

There are probably other examples people can remember, but I can't at the moment.

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