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Old
11-14-2010, 08:53 PM
  #1
tiz
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Projections!

We're 17 games into the season, so just over 20% into it, so I decided to project our player's numbers over a 82 game season.

For projected GP, I did (GP/Team GP)*82.
Then for G,A,+/-,PIMS, I did ((G,A,+/-,PIMS)/GP)*Player's Projected GP.

I just thought it produces some interesting stats, since they are more easily comparable to other years.

PlayerGPGAPTS+/-PIM
Tomas Plekanec772958873458
Andrei Kostitsyn823429631948
Michael Cammalleri771939585858
Jeff Halpern821929483434
Benoit Pouliot822419431929
Roman Hamrlik72534392948
Brian Gionta821919381019
P.K. Subban82529342468
Jaroslav Spacek82529341958
Josh Gorges8252934039
Scott Gomez82101929529
Mathieu Darche631410242929
Travis Moen821010201496
Maxim Lapierre8210515-14174
Andrei Markov34510151019
Alexandre Picard43505340
Hal Gill82055-2453
Lars Eller77055-1439
Tom Pyatt72000-1910

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Old
11-14-2010, 08:58 PM
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the vinyl version
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Interesting.
Thanks for doing it.

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Old
11-14-2010, 09:01 PM
  #3
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Hate to tell you, but the TSN website has projections updated all the time. :p

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Old
11-14-2010, 09:05 PM
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tiz
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In terms of analysis, I'd be very happy with the numbers projected for Plekanec, Kostitsyn, Halpern, and Pouliot.

Hamrlik, Spacek, Gorges, Darche, Moen, and Lapierre would all be around their career best/average.

Cammalleri is just a handful of points below his career average.

We really need to see better numbers at the end of the year from Gomez and Gionta. 29 and 38 point seasons would be disastrous from these two, especially for their contracts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by natey2k4 View Post
Hate to tell you, but the TSN website has projections updated all the time. :p
Really? Oh well, I used a pretty quick excel spreadsheet to do it. I was doing it for my own interest, but figured it would be interesting to others here too. I just looked it up, they use another way to calculate it. Plus you can't quickly see the whole team easily, at least not that I can find.

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Old
11-14-2010, 09:13 PM
  #5
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very cool, Gomez...ouch

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Old
11-14-2010, 09:25 PM
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pine
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lol, cammy finishing at +58 while Pyatt at -19.

Net difference of 77

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Old
11-14-2010, 09:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by natey2k4 View Post
Hate to tell you, but the TSN website has projections updated all the time. :p
This is easier to look at though instead of opening up each player page separately. Gives you an idea of the entire team at a glance.

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Old
11-14-2010, 09:34 PM
  #8
Frankenheimer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tiz View Post
We're 17 games into the season, so just over 20% into it, so I decided to project our player's numbers over a 82 game season.

For projected GP, I did (GP/Team GP)*82.
Then for G,A,+/-,PIMS, I did ((G,A,+/-,PIMS)/GP)*Player's Projected GP.

I just thought it produces some interesting stats, since they are more easily comparable to other years.

PlayerGPGAPTS+/-PIM
Tomas Plekanec772958873458
Andrei Kostitsyn823429631948
Michael Cammalleri771939585858
Jeff Halpern821929483434
Benoit Pouliot822419431929
Roman Hamrlik72534392948
Brian Gionta821919381019
P.K. Subban82529342468
Jaroslav Spacek82529341958
Josh Gorges8252934039
Scott Gomez82101929529
Mathieu Darche631410242929
Travis Moen821010201496
Maxim Lapierre8210515-14174
Andrei Markov34510151019
Alexandre Picard43505340
Hal Gill82055-2453
Lars Eller77055-1439
Tom Pyatt72000-1910
I expect Pleks will finish a bit lower, Gomez, and Cammalleri a bit higher. Gionta and Akost are about right. That would be a very good year for Pouliot, something to build on.

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Old
11-14-2010, 09:38 PM
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Kriss E
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frankenheimer View Post
I expect Pleks will finish a bit lower, Gomez, and Cammalleri a bit higher. Gionta and Akost are about right. That would be a very good year for Pouliot, something to build on.
38pts for Gionta?..That would be horrible.

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Old
11-14-2010, 09:38 PM
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tiz
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frankenheimer View Post
I expect Pleks will finish a bit lower, Gomez, and Cammalleri a bit higher. Gionta and Akost are about right. That would be a very good year for Pouliot, something to build on.
With the way Pleks is playing, I can easily see him finishing very close to a point per game. Gionta takes a ton of shots, he really needs them to start going in and he needs to finish around 50 pts at least.

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Old
11-14-2010, 09:43 PM
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Ollie Williams
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I certainly hope this does not become the reality for Eller. lol

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Old
11-14-2010, 09:46 PM
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tiz
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ollie Williams View Post
I certainly hope this does not become the reality for Eller. lol
Maybe his odd number for PIM means he actually does drop the gloves against Chara sometime this year.

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Old
11-14-2010, 09:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
38pts for Gionta?..That would be horrible.
He's not a big point guy. He averages lower twenties in goals. He might be in the forties? Where do you see him ending up?

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Old
11-14-2010, 09:55 PM
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I see what you did there! (with all the 19's and 29's)

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Old
11-14-2010, 09:56 PM
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tiz
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Plekanov View Post
I see what you did there! (with all the 19's and 29's)
I guess you could blame stats.

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Old
11-14-2010, 09:57 PM
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Ollie Williams
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frankenheimer View Post
He's not a big point guy. He averages lower twenties in goals. He might be in the forties? Where do you see him ending up?
I just can't see Halpern getting more points than Gionta in those games played.

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Old
11-14-2010, 11:16 PM
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Kriss E
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frankenheimer View Post
He's not a big point guy. He averages lower twenties in goals. He might be in the forties? Where do you see him ending up?
Well, his career average is about 55pts, so I will never expect a player to produce less than their average unless there's some type of special circumstance like an injury. A cold streak shouldn't prevent him from reaching that total.

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Old
11-14-2010, 11:20 PM
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lol @ 4 of our defensemen being projected to get more points than Gomez

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Old
11-14-2010, 11:48 PM
  #19
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Last year it took gionta 14 games to get 8 pts and this year it took him 17 game. Last year he was on pace for 60 pts if not for his injury. He is a slow starter don't worry for him he will get his point (anything from 50-65 is realistic)


In Gomez case, he is a slow starter to. Last year after 23 game he had 11 pts so he is to a 'good' start. Those two are just really slow to get their game going, let's hope they get better (they get their name on the score sheet lately so it's a good sign)


I could see A.Kost being close to 60 pts but anything over 60 seems a bit as a reach to me.

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Old
11-15-2010, 01:01 AM
  #20
TheHabMan43
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Oh god Gomez, I hope you start producing soon. 29 points for superstar $$

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Old
11-15-2010, 01:23 AM
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MikeyPeenz
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I have 50 bucks on Cammy getting 40 goals this year ( including playoffs )
I had the same bet last year he finished with 39 goals, hoping to break even this year

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Old
11-15-2010, 01:31 AM
  #22
beowulf
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The sample size is just to small that you cannot accurately project a players year after such a small number of games. I mean look at a guy like Eller he gets a couple of points next game and it all changes dramatically. Same with pretty much any player.

Lapierre with 174 pim that would amaze me.

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Old
11-15-2010, 09:10 AM
  #23
tiz
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beowulf View Post
The sample size is just to small that you cannot accurately project a players year after such a small number of games. I mean look at a guy like Eller he gets a couple of points next game and it all changes dramatically. Same with pretty much any player.

Lapierre with 174 pim that would amaze me.
It is just over 1/5th of the season though... It's not like we're 4 games in.

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Old
11-15-2010, 09:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeyPeenz View Post
I have 50 bucks on Cammy getting 40 goals this year ( including playoffs )
I had the same bet last year he finished with 39 goals, hoping to break even this year
Who actually made that bet? If we go to the second round I can't see Cammy getting much less than 40 if any. Who knows though injury could screw you over

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Old
11-15-2010, 09:23 AM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beowulf View Post
The sample size is just to small that you cannot accurately project a players year after such a small number of games. I mean look at a guy like Eller he gets a couple of points next game and it all changes dramatically. Same with pretty much any player.

Lapierre with 174 pim that would amaze me.
I mentioned it in another thread, only time projections imo are somewhat accurate is after 60+ games maybe even 70+ in some cases.

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