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Mike Modano, a Hall of Famer?

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Old
11-19-2010, 12:18 PM
  #76
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Modano developed into a two-way player as opposed to being one right from the start, but that's much better than never becoming one, wouldn't you agree?
I agree with you and I really like two-way guys a lot but I think you're overstating Modano's offense still.

As someone pointed out earlier, Modano was largely a one way player early in his career and still wasn't scoring at the level of a Perreault. Regarding his one 50 goal season I remember a comment being made in one of the yearbook magazines that he learned to score like that in this league took getting your nose dirty. Up until then he had been a pretty boy like you see mentioned elsewhere in this thread. He wasn't willing to pay the price.

Once they got Hitchcock and clamped down defensively he improved as a two way player but that also kept him from being quite as strong offensively. You might have a case that the 97-03 Modano was a better overall player than Perreault but otherwise.. I just don't see it. Especially once you start considering the Jere Lehtinen factor as a part of Modano's defensive play.

Not that any of this matters.. he'll be in the hall easily being an American and the face of a franchise as long as he was in Minny/Dallas. And he certainly won't be the worst guy in the hall, either.

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11-19-2010, 12:33 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by God Bless Canada View Post
From the start of the playoffs in 1999, to the end of the playoffs in 1999, Nieuwendyk, Lehtinen and Belfour were the Stars post-season MVPs. Nieuwendyk won a Conn Smythe that was fairly undisputed.
Nieuwendyk's Conn Smythe is far from undisputed.

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He scored six game-winning goals on a team who played in a lot of one-goal and two-goal games. (As I've said before, I'm not a big fan of the game-winning goals stat, but six GWGs on a team that won 12 one-goal or two-goal games is pretty indicative.)
Four of them were from the first six games of the playoffs. For someone who's so anti-stats, a statement like the above is heavily reliant on one dubious stat taken out of context.

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But there was some support for Lehtinen to win the Conn Smythe. Ten goals from a guy playing the game like that is huge. Take the source for what it's worth, but Hull called Lehtinen the best two-way player in the league. Lehtinen was terrific. He was the one Dallas player who was a threat (granted, a minor one) to Nieuwendyk for the Conn Smythe. When the best defensive forward at that time gives you 10 goals in the playoffs, it's huge. And Belfour was terrific.
Belfour was terrific, yes. He was a deserving winner. Certainly more than Nieuwendyk or Lehtinen, arguably more than Modano.

Lehtinen was clearly not offensively gifted enoughto truly be the league's best two-way player, but he could have been its best defensive player.

Let's all agree that Ken Hitchcock knows a lot more about winning hockey games than we do. And in the 1999 playoffs he turned to Mike Modano to win him hockey games, three and a half more minutes than any other forward (Lehtinen was 2nd) and six and a half more than Nieuwendyk (who was 4th). He was used immensely in all situations and although he was not the team's goal, or GWG leader, he did score the most points. Lehtinen had more goals, but everyone knows Modano was the catalyst for that. Your statement suggests an over-reliance on the finishing part of the game, but there is much more tothe game than finishing. Modano was easily an all-around better player than both of them.

A couple key context points to consider:

- Modano played more playoff icetime per game (24:40) than any top forward on a Stanley cup winner since icetime was tracked starting in 1999. The next highest was Brind'Amour's 23:52 in 2006.

- Modano's lead of 3:31 over the next-highest forward on his team was the highest since icetime has been tracked. The next biggest lead was Getzlaf's 2:18 in 2007.

- Nieuwendyk's ice time of in the 1999 playoffs (18:27) is easily the lowest by a conn smythe winning forward since icetime has been tracked. the next lowest was Malkin's 20:57 in 2009.

Modano was definitely Dallas' most important forward. Nieuwendyk was definitely not.

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11-19-2010, 12:44 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
I agree with you and I really like two-way guys a lot but I think you're overstating Modano's offense still.

As someone pointed out earlier, Modano was largely a one way player early in his career and still wasn't scoring at the level of a Perreault. Regarding his one 50 goal season I remember a comment being made in one of the yearbook magazines that he learned to score like that in this league took getting your nose dirty. Up until then he had been a pretty boy like you see mentioned elsewhere in this thread. He wasn't willing to pay the price.

Once they got Hitchcock and clamped down defensively he improved as a two way player but that also kept him from being quite as strong offensively. You might have a case that the 97-03 Modano was a better overall player than Perreault but otherwise.. I just don't see it. Especially once you start considering the Jere Lehtinen factor as a part of Modano's defensive play.

Not that any of this matters.. he'll be in the hall easily being an American and the face of a franchise as long as he was in Minny/Dallas. And he certainly won't be the worst guy in the hall, either.
Perreault wasn't exactly paying the price to score, either. So Modano's scoring results as a one-way player are pretty comparable to Perreault's.

Six of Modano's best 7 seasons from a points placement perspective came during the Hitchcock era so it's not true to say that playing defensively kept him from being quite as strong offensively.

Just to illustrate what it would have taken for Modano's best 7 seasons to match Perreault's from a placement/ranking perspective:

- To go from 8th to 3rd he'd have needed 10 more points
- To go from 9th to 4th he'd have needed 2 more points
- To go from 10th to 5th he'd have needed 12 more points
- To go from 13th to 8th he'd have needed 12 more points
- To go from 14th to 9th he'd have needed 5 more points
- To go from 15th to 14th he'd have needed 1 more point
- To go from 16th to 15th he'd have needed 1 more point

43 more points in these 7 seasons, and I'd be telling you "Modano placed 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 14, 15 in the league in scoring" and with defense considered this wouldn't even be close overall. (before you consider the difficulty in placing higher consistently in Modano's time and the WHA/european factors)

So are these 43 points enough to take it from "easily Modano" to "Perreault's offense outweighs Modano's defense"?

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11-19-2010, 12:47 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Let's all agree that Ken Hitchcock knows a lot more about winning hockey games than we do.
That's rich coming from a guy who thinks he knows more than Scotty Bowman in other threads.

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11-19-2010, 12:56 PM
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That's rich coming from a guy who thinks he knows more than Scotty Bowman in other threads.
Except I made it clear I think coaches speak loudest with their ice time, and Bowman gave Ramsay more icetime than Gainey. Nice try though.

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11-19-2010, 01:01 PM
  #81
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Except I made it clear I think coaches speak loudest with their ice time, and Bowman gave Ramsay more icetime than Gainey. Nice try though.
Oh my and shall we compare Montreal's depth to the Sabres now?

The stats don't make everything black and white like you seem to think.

As an example why does Nieuwendyk get rated so much worse by you scoring 2 points less than Modano in ~138 minutes less playing time?

Nieuwendyk was very strong on faceoffs so I can't imagine he wouldn't be being sheltered from important minutes in the defensive zone for example..

And as for the 4 game winners coming early in the playoffs.. that is nonsense. If they don't win those games there are no later games. But nice try though. I tend to think there must be some reason they voted for Nieuwendyk over Modano.. it isn't like they didn't have access to the icetime stats too.

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11-19-2010, 01:08 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by RabbinsDuck View Post
Modano is a lock, IMO.
His Selke voting record is severely underrated due to playing with Lehtinen.
Just a defining player of his generation.
Or is his defensive play severely overrated due to playing with Lehtinen?

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11-19-2010, 01:09 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by jepjepjoo View Post
Or is his defensive play severely overrated due to playing with Lehtinen?
Thats something to keep in mind although Modano was solid on faceoffs and that is a very important advantage both offensively and defensively.

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11-19-2010, 01:36 PM
  #84
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he def deserves to be there he was a top 10 dominant player for over 10 yrs

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11-19-2010, 01:38 PM
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Perreault seems to be one guy, maybe more than any other, that "historical canon" rates much higher than you would expect.

People who watched him play rave about what a fabulous talent he was. He was considered one of the game's true superstars in the 70's, and by all accounts held in higher regard by his contemporaries than Modano was. The Hockey News, as in love with Cups won as they were, still managed to have the Cup-less Perreault rated 47th on their list, pretty much on par with Marcel Dionne. Even though Dionne, also Cup-less, obliterates Perreault in regular season offensive production.

But is this a case where physical talent is taking priority over actual results? It just doesn't add up for myself, and most others who aren't old enough to have seen or remember Perreault. Despite his reputation as an offensive wizard, Perreault only cracked the top five in points three times, only once ever seriously contending for an Art Ross. As seventies demonstrates, the offensive gap between him and Modano is really not very big at all, as far as results are concerned. Yet one guy is lauded for his extraordinary offensive talant, while the other is suggested by some to have an offensive resume that isn't up to snuff for a HOFer.

Once you factor in how Modano was one of the top two-way players of his generation, it seems as though rating him over Perreault is perfectly logical. But then to most who saw both play, it's Perreault by a landslide. I place a lot of value on contemporary opinion, the "eyeball test" if you will, but I really have to question it in this case. History seems to have seriously oversold Perreault based on all non-eyeball evidence.

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11-19-2010, 01:39 PM
  #86
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Originally Posted by jepjepjoo View Post
Or is his defensive play severely overrated due to playing with Lehtinen?
I think having Brett Hull on the other wing kind of evens it out.

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11-19-2010, 02:11 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
Oh my and shall we compare Montreal's depth to the Sabres now?

The stats don't make everything black and white like you seem to think.

As an example why does Nieuwendyk get rated so much worse by you scoring 2 points less than Modano in ~138 minutes less playing time?

Nieuwendyk was very strong on faceoffs so I can't imagine he wouldn't be being sheltered from important minutes in the defensive zone for example..
More minutes equals tougher minutes. Nieuwendyk wasn't the guy going up against the opposition's best. Modano and Lehtinen were. Nieuwendyk, to his credit, likely dominated some 2nd/3rd lines throughout.

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And as for the 4 game winners coming early in the playoffs.. that is nonsense. If they don't win those games there are no later games. But nice try though.
Of course if they don't win those games there are no later games. But then, jsut being the guy who scored the GWG doesn't make you the reason the team won and advanced, does it?

Would Dallas have found a way to lose to Edmonton, who they swept, without Nieuwendyk's game winners?

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I tend to think there must be some reason they voted for Nieuwendyk over Modano.. it isn't like they didn't have access to the icetime stats too.
Unfortnately, they were obsessed with one stat. Just the wrong one.

There are game winning goals. there are also game-winning assists. The goal that tied the game that allowed the winner to be scored is also very important, as are the assists that led to it. Not to mention goals that put you ahead by two, and the assists on them. And if you're up by two and the opposition scores late, then the insurance goal becomes the winner, and the goal that was the would-be winner is now none of the above. It's just a silly myopic statistic, and Nieuwendyk having six of them distorted perception of who the team's best player was.

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11-19-2010, 02:14 PM
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
There are game winning goals. there are also game-winning assists. The goal that tied the game that allowed the winner to be scored is also very important, as are the assists that led to it. Not to mention goals that put you ahead by two, and the assists on them. And if you're up by two and the opposition scores late, then the insurance goal becomes the winner, and the goal that was the would-be winner is now none of the above. It's just a silly myopic statistic, and Nieuwendyk having six of them distorted perception of who the team's best player was.
Thats the problem with trying to define someone as being "clutch".

Once someone has that label, whether it is fair or not, they get extra credit when things go well.

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11-19-2010, 02:20 PM
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Thats the problem with trying to define someone as being "clutch".

Once someone has that label, whether it is fair or not, they get extra credit when things go well.
and Nieuwendyk scored at a 60-point clip in the playoffs but got some game winners one spring and he's forever clutch!

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11-19-2010, 02:25 PM
  #90
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and Nieuwendyk scored at a 60-point clip in the playoffs but got some game winners one spring and he's forever clutch!
Pretty much, yeah.

Same with every "clutch" player for the most part.

The generally don't play any different than they would otherwise but people think they do.

And since they have the reputation of being clutch they get put into more situations and have the opportunity to reinforce the idea.

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11-19-2010, 02:41 PM
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Pretty much, yeah.

Same with every "clutch" player for the most part.

The generally don't play any different than they would otherwise but people think they do.

And since they have the reputation of being clutch they get put into more situations and have the opportunity to reinforce the idea.
We have the same favourite player though, so I think it's safe to say we both believe that at least a few players can transcend the randomness and be clutch.

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11-19-2010, 02:55 PM
  #92
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While Perrault and Savvy were superior in skill and offensive creativity, i don't know that they were better players than Modano.

As a Hawks fan and Stars hater, many times I wished the Hawks had Modano instead of Savvy! Especially when Denny would take a selfish stupid penalty or misconduct. I hope the hockey Gods don't strike me down with lightning!?!
Well in all honesty Savard was a superstar in the 1980s. Not the 1990s. Modano was a star in the 1990s. If this is 1996 I want Modano on my team too over Savard because Savard was 36 years old at that time and about to retire.

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11-19-2010, 03:04 PM
  #93
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We have the same favourite player though, so I think it's safe to say we both believe that at least a few players can transcend the randomness and be clutch.
I don't totally discount it. I'm sure there are times when a player really does rise above their level and make a difference. I just think it is much more rare than we think in general.

Even in Gilmour's case though, I don't think he approached things differently or played a lot better scoring the 2-1 double OT goal against St. Louis than he did at any other time that season. He played hard all the time.

I think it was less a change in how he played than the circumstances his play was viewed it.

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11-19-2010, 03:08 PM
  #94
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Perreault seems to be one guy, maybe more than any other, that "historical canon" rates much higher than you would expect.

People who watched him play rave about what a fabulous talent he was. He was considered one of the game's true superstars in the 70's, and by all accounts held in higher regard by his contemporaries than Modano was.
And that's the thing right there. At the time, Perreault was held to a higher standard than Modano ever was. Modano never had a season worthy of Perreault in 1975 or 1976 or even 1980. I agree that my eyes don't lie either. Perreault is still who I would pick.

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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
You missed a 10, plus there was also 13, 14, 15, 16 for Modano. Perreault's resume can be beefed up with a 14, 15, 15, 15. For totals of:

Perreault: 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 14, 15, 15, 15.
Modano: 8, 9, 10, 13, 14, 15, 16.

9 great offensive seasons to 7 doesn't look like such a big edge.
Just by me looking at those numbers, I still think it's a clear edge offensively for Perreault. I'm also not sure if Modano ever had any "great" offensive seasons like you mentioned. We know Perreault did. Modano on the other hand was a model of consistency wh0 was a 75-85 point man. Like I said before, his peak left you wanting more.


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And who should have come out of the 1972 lineup for a 21-year old offense-only center?
Perreault was brilliant in those two games. Along with Henderson and Cournoyer he was the only ones who managed to skate - and even surpass - the Russians. Why in the world he was left out of the line up so often baffles me. If you saw the beautiful end to end goal he got in Game 4 and the pretty pass he did in Game 5 I don't think you'd be questioning anything.

Perreault was a stand out in international play. Modano never stood out in a tournament that I saw him in. Not even the 1996 World Cup when USA won. He wasn't a big factor.

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11-19-2010, 03:10 PM
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I don't totally discount it. I'm sure there are times when a player really does rise above their level and make a difference. I just think it is much more rare than we think in general.

Even in Gilmour's case though, I don't think he approached things differently or played a lot better scoring the 2-1 double OT goal against St. Louis than he did at any other time that season. He played hard all the time.

I think it was less a change in how he played than the circumstances his play was viewed it.
I think some (many?) players absolutely play differently in the playoffs.

Take my favorite player of all time - Scott Stevens. You know what is so amazing about all of his famous hits? Every single one of them is in the playoffs. Stevens was always very good defensively and always intimidating in the regular season, but the freight train perfectly-timed hits tended to come in the playoffs. I don't think it was psychologically possible for a human being to play as intensely as Stevens did in the playoffs over an 82 game season.

Fedorov too. People criticize him for loafing in the regular season, but I think it was pretty obvious that after the Wings choked 3 straight seasons from 94-96, he decided to pace himself in the regular season, with obviously favorable team results.

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11-19-2010, 03:12 PM
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Just by me looking at those numbers, I still think it's a clear edge offensively for Perreault. I'm also not sure if Modano ever had any "great" offensive seasons like you mentioned. We know Perreault did. Modano on the other hand was a model of consistency wh0 was a 75-85 point man. Like I said before, his peak left you wanting more..
http://hfboards.com/showpost.php?p=2...0&postcount=78

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11-19-2010, 03:15 PM
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he'll get in, and probably firt-time ballot too.

Modano is one of the most complete players of his generation. He played a great all-around game. He would have got a lot more points if he hadn't played under Gainey and Hitchcock who turned him from an offensive player to a complete player, but because of them he's never been a liability on the ice (well, maybe except the last few years where he should have retired)

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11-19-2010, 03:59 PM
  #98
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12 points, or even 10, were larger than you think in the low scoring era. For example, Crosby had 14 more points than Stamkos last year. I think it is clear Crosby had the better season no? Our eyes tell us that as do the numbers.

I know people like to blame Hitchcock for Modano's lack of offense as well but he wasn't coaching the Stars Modano's whole career. In 1995-'96 partway through is when he started coaching Dallas. Yes he put some shackles on his players, but Modano was 25 when Hitchcock started. He had put in 6 full seasons and then some already and did not set the NHL on fire. From an offensive standpoint he never did any better than 16th in points prior to Hitchcock. Then Hitchcock is fired midway through 2001-'02. Modano didn't explode offensively then either. Yes he was turning 32 by then but still. So this myth that Hitchcock held him back has always made me wonder. There was never any evidence that Modano would have been an Art Ross winner had he had more freedom.

He was a big guy, but I always felt he was a prima donna when he didn't have to be. Ditto for Sundin. Neither player used their body to their advantage.

Once in a while you'd see Modano do a nice rush and ask yourself "why can't he do that more often". The truth is you saw it often enough with Perreault that you never even asked.

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11-19-2010, 04:11 PM
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12 points, or even 10, were larger than you think in the low scoring era. For example, Crosby had 14 more points than Stamkos last year. I think it is clear Crosby had the better season no? Our eyes tell us that as do the numbers.

I know people like to blame Hitchcock for Modano's lack of offense as well but he wasn't coaching the Stars Modano's whole career. In 1995-'96 partway through is when he started coaching Dallas. Yes he put some shackles on his players, but Modano was 25 when Hitchcock started. He had put in 6 full seasons and then some already and did not set the NHL on fire. From an offensive standpoint he never did any better than 16th in points prior to Hitchcock. Then Hitchcock is fired midway through 2001-'02. Modano didn't explode offensively then either. Yes he was turning 32 by then but still. So this myth that Hitchcock held him back has always made me wonder. There was never any evidence that Modano would have been an Art Ross winner had he had more freedom.

He was a big guy, but I always felt he was a prima donna when he didn't have to be. Ditto for Sundin. Neither player used their body to their advantage.

Once in a while you'd see Modano do a nice rush and ask yourself "why can't he do that more often". The truth is you saw it often enough with Perreault that you never even asked.
It's not a myth. Modano was entering his prime when Hitchcock arrived; he was exiting his prime when Hitchcock left. When Hitchcock arrived, Modano already had a 50-goal season to his credit. But as I said before, playing under Hitchcock was like playing bungee run. It was a pretty stifling system. Modano became a better player under Hitchcock than he ever would have been otherwise, and he did things to cement his legacy that wouldn't have happened under Hitchcock. Hitchcock hurt Modano's number, but he helped Modano's game, career and legacy.

As for using size, for starters, I think Modano's size and Sundin's size are inflated. Did Modano use his size to full advantage, like a Mario, a Messier or a Lindros? No. But it's very difficult to check a guy who's over six feet and can skate like Modano. As for Sundin, he didn't blast someone into next week like you would expect from someone who's 6'3" (he magically grew a couple of inches to 6'5" later in his career), but he used his size to full advantage when it came to puck protection and outmuscling opposing defencemen.

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11-19-2010, 04:44 PM
  #100
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His career numbers are great considering he played in the dead puck era, on Reunion arena slush for a coach whose wet dream was to win a game zero to negative one.
i fell on the floor at that. god bless the fat man.

Modano is the best defensive forward by MILES of the batch of top scorers posted since 1989 as well as being a few pts above Sundin. Anyone who doesn't think Mo is a first ballot inductee, regardless of nationality, has a few screws loose.

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