__________________
"Every game, every point is a necessity." -- Ty Conklin, January 2007
"I'll have a chance to compete for the post of first issue. This is the most important thing." -- Sergei Bobrovsky, June 2012
For some reason it won't allow me to put in the whole address. In a nut shell Johansen is the #1 player this guy can't wait to see in the NHL.
"Drafted fourth overall by Columbus in 2010, this kid has it all. Mix his size and speed and the Blue Jackets just might have that first line center to play with Rick Nash. I think the management team is doing the right thing by letting him mature another season in Portland with the WHL, but NHL defenses beware when he finds himself in the Jackets lineup"
While I somewhat could understand getting a center for organizational need, seeing Jeff Skinner, Burmistrov, and Fowler already having NHL success chosen later is a bit concerning when Ryan isn't even dominating the Junior levels and is third on his team in scoring. I'm not normally one of the people to be concerned with current production > future potential, but if they're are already having success, and being picked after Johansen, it's a little worrying about the quality and decision of the fourth overall pick.
While I somewhat could understand getting a center for organizational need, seeing Jeff Skinner, Burmistrov, and Fowler already having NHL success chosen later is a bit concerning when Ryan isn't even dominating the Junior levels and is third on his team in scoring. I'm not normally one of the people to be concerned with current production > future potential, but if they're are already having success, and being picked after Johansen, it's a little worrying about the quality and decision of the fourth overall pick.
I think it's very much a matter of maturity, team need, and surrounding talent. Johansen is very young and had a large growth spurt, last year. He's still growing into his body, I think. Some of the young guys picked after him may be more mature and may have been put into a lineup better able to cover for any growing pains they may have. And, certainly, quality center prospects in the CBJ system are few and far between.
I could be wrong about some or all of that, but that's how I see it.
I thought the composure he showed at the NHL level was impressive. That's a great start, and with the physical capabilities, everything else can be coached.
While I somewhat could understand getting a center for organizational need, seeing Jeff Skinner, Burmistrov, and Fowler already having NHL success chosen later is a bit concerning when Ryan isn't even dominating the Junior levels and is third on his team in scoring. I'm not normally one of the people to be concerned with current production > future potential, but if they're are already having success, and being picked after Johansen, it's a little worrying about the quality and decision of the fourth overall pick.
Understand concerns to a degree. But have to agree with Pete, it can have as much to do situations as it does with raw talent.
Burmistrov.... See Filatov, Voracek, Calvert, Kubalik, Atkinson, etc.
Fowler.... See Moore, Savard, Goloubef, Holden, etc
Skinner.... See Johansen, ????????
Skinner is just a little more NHL ready at the moment. With Brassard's expected development, Vermette, and Pahlsson and now Wilson, there is ample time for Ryan to develop and grow into his frame. In the long run given equal skill I'd rather have the bigger center.
Understand concerns to a degree. But have to agree with Pete, it can have as much to do situations as it does with raw talent.
Burmistrov.... See Filatov, Voracek, Calvert, Kubalik, Atkinson, etc.
Fowler.... See Moore, Savard, Goloubef, Holden, etc
Skinner.... See Johansen, ????????
Skinner is just a little more NHL ready at the moment. With Brassard's expected development, Vermette, and Pahlsson and now Wilson, there is ample time for Ryan to develop and grow into his frame. In the long run given equal skill I'd rather have the bigger center.
I agree to an extent, but you have to admit it IS annoying that this seems to happen every year... When it comes right down to it I think it's mostly just luck of the draw.
While I somewhat could understand getting a center for organizational need, seeing Jeff Skinner, Burmistrov, and Fowler already having NHL success chosen later is a bit concerning when Ryan isn't even dominating the Junior levels and is third on his team in scoring. I'm not normally one of the people to be concerned with current production > future potential, but if they're are already having success, and being picked after Johansen, it's a little worrying about the quality and decision of the fourth overall pick.
While I somewhat could understand getting a center for organizational need, seeing Jeff Skinner, Burmistrov, and Fowler already having NHL success chosen later is a bit concerning when Ryan isn't even dominating the Junior levels and is third on his team in scoring. I'm not normally one of the people to be concerned with current production > future potential, but if they're are already having success, and being picked after Johansen, it's a little worrying about the quality and decision of the fourth overall pick.
Burmistrov and Fowler both filled immediate needs of their respective teams. Skinner was, from all reports, the best player in Carolina's camp and forced them to keep him. Johansen was neither.
And don't forget, Nino Niederreiter was sent back to minors too and he was picked right after Johansen. Brandon Gormley, who was supposedly the best of the defenseman available, was sent back to junior as well. I wouldn't be too concerned about it, to be honest.
While I somewhat could understand getting a center for organizational need, seeing Jeff Skinner, Burmistrov, and Fowler already having NHL success chosen later is a bit concerning when Ryan isn't even dominating the Junior levels and is third on his team in scoring. I'm not normally one of the people to be concerned with current production > future potential, but if they're are already having success, and being picked after Johansen, it's a little worrying about the quality and decision of the fourth overall pick.
The only player that I could see possibly sticking in Columbus this year would have been Skinner. Johansen has a higher ceiling as an overall player. Who cares if they play the year they are drafted. The Thrashers need any positive player they can get, the Ducks D was horrible coming into the year and Skinner played lights out in Carolina during the pre-season.
Personally, I don't find it troubling or annoying just situational. Johansen isn't likely to be much more than a 4th line center next year either. Brassard appears to be on the right track to being a top 6 center, Vermette is a mid 6 center and Pahlsson has one year left on his contract. I'm guessing a year as the 4th line center and then an audition after Pahlsson is gone higher up in the lineup. The ability to move Vermette to 3rd line center would be fantastic. Let the kid grow and mature. don't worry about draft status.
While I somewhat could understand getting a center for organizational need, seeing Jeff Skinner, Burmistrov, and Fowler already having NHL success chosen later is a bit concerning when Ryan isn't even dominating the Junior levels and is third on his team in scoring. I'm not normally one of the people to be concerned with current production > future potential, but if they're are already having success, and being picked after Johansen, it's a little worrying about the quality and decision of the fourth overall pick.
As was mentioned previously, Fowler is a case of Anaheim being weak on defense, and Burmistrov is a case of Atlanta being weak all around. This is a nice problem for the Jackets to have - not immediately needing their first round pick to step into the lineup. By most reports, Skinner was the best available goal scorer in the draft, I don't think many people are arguing that - but, in 2-3 years from now, would you rather have the 5'8" center or the 6'3" center? I think Johansen has a higher ceiling, Jason Spezza or Ryan Getzlaf-esque, whereas I see Jeff Skinner more as a Derek Roy (not a bad player at all, but he's no Spezza/Getzlaf). Give him time to develop and put on some weight, and it will pay off big time. I've seen him first hand for the past two seasons, you can trust me on that.
As was mentioned previously, Fowler is a case of Anaheim being weak on defense, and Burmistrov is a case of Atlanta being weak all around. This is a nice problem for the Jackets to have - not immediately needing their first round pick to step into the lineup. By most reports, Skinner was the best available goal scorer in the draft, I don't think many people are arguing that - but, in 2-3 years from now, would you rather have the 5'8" center or the 6'3" center? I think Johansen has a higher ceiling, Jason Spezza or Ryan Getzlaf-esque, whereas I see Jeff Skinner more as a Derek Roy (not a bad player at all, but he's no Spezza/Getzlaf). Give him time to develop and put on some weight, and it will pay off big time. I've seen him first hand for the past two seasons, you can trust me on that.
As was mentioned previously, Fowler is a case of Anaheim being weak on defense, and Burmistrov is a case of Atlanta being weak all around. This is a nice problem for the Jackets to have - not immediately needing their first round pick to step into the lineup. By most reports, Skinner was the best available goal scorer in the draft, I don't think many people are arguing that - but, in 2-3 years from now, would you rather have the 5'8" center or the 6'3" center? I think Johansen has a higher ceiling, Jason Spezza or Ryan Getzlaf-esque, whereas I see Jeff Skinner more as a Derek Roy (not a bad player at all, but he's no Spezza/Getzlaf). Give him time to develop and put on some weight, and it will pay off big time. I've seen him first hand for the past two seasons, you can trust me on that.
This is good player development for all the right reasons
I hope that Johanssen will be our version of Aaron Rodgers. Leave him to develop until Vermy's contract runs out, then bring him up and see what he can do.
Ryan isn't even dominating the Junior levels and is third on his team in scoring.
In 21 games he has 25 points and is +15 while only having 12 penalty minutes. Niederreiter has only been back for 11 games so far, meaning he played 10 games with new linemates. It may not be dominating but it's certainly consistent good play.
In 21 games he has 25 points and is +15 while only having 12 penalty minutes. Niederreiter has only been back for 11 games so far, meaning he played 10 games with new linemates. It may not be dominating but it's certainly consistent good play.
To add to this: his team has been winning, whether or not his contributions have been heavy. He's been seeing the absolute best defense corps on every night, and the other teams are matching their top lines with him as well. The fact that he's better than a point/game and is a +15 is amazing.
Let's not forget, he's still only a second year player in the rough and tumble WHL ... which is a substantially lower scoring league than the QMJHL and the OHL. He's not at the top of the league in scoring, but I'd bet by the end of the season he'll be right there, if he can remain consistent ... it happens every year, where the guys that come out fast cool off.
While I somewhat could understand getting a center for organizational need, seeing Jeff Skinner, Burmistrov, and Fowler already having NHL success chosen later is a bit concerning when Ryan isn't even dominating the Junior levels and is third on his team in scoring. I'm not normally one of the people to be concerned with current production > future potential, but if they're are already having success, and being picked after Johansen, it's a little worrying about the quality and decision of the fourth overall pick.
Remember the 97 draft when samsonov was picked in Boston and dominated as a rookie.... Thornton had less then 20 points that year. He needed time to grow into his body and develop... It then didnt take long for him to emerge and dominate while samsonov died off a little... What I am saying is that just because a few rookies are CURRENTLY playing well now, doesnt mean they will be steals or better players then Johansen. Patience is key.
To add to this: his team has been winning, whether or not his contributions have been heavy. He's been seeing the absolute best defense corps on every night, and the other teams are matching their top lines with him as well. The fact that he's better than a point/game and is a +15 is amazing.
Let's not forget, he's still only a second year player in the rough and tumble WHL ... which is a substantially lower scoring league than the QMJHL and the OHL. He's not at the top of the league in scoring, but I'd bet by the end of the season he'll be right there, if he can remain consistent ... it happens every year, where the guys that come out fast cool off.
When leaving the prospect camp, he was told to focus on improving his 2-way play and his play making. So I'm not extremely surprised that his point production isn't off the charts.
Remember the 97 draft when samsonov was picked in Boston and dominated as a rookie.... Thornton had less then 20 points that year. He needed time to grow into his body and develop... It then didnt take long for him to emerge and dominate while samsonov died off a little... What I am saying is that just because a few rookies are CURRENTLY playing well now, doesnt mean they will be steals or better players then Johansen. Patience is key.
Great analogy with the Samsonov/Thornton comparison ... this is exactly the point I was trying to make, I just didn't know how to put it into words.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crede777
When leaving the prospect camp, he was told to focus on improving his 2-way play and his play making. So I'm not extremely surprised that his point production isn't off the charts.
Good point as well; I can say first hand that Johansen has been playing in all three zones for the Hawks.
I hope that Johanssen will be our version of Aaron Rodgers. Leave him to develop until Vermy's contract runs out, then bring him up and see what he can do.
You mean Pahlsson. The most likely scenario is that since Vermettes contract runs until 2015-2016, and Brassards runs until 2014-2015, that once Pahlsson's contract runs out in 2012-2013, the Jackets can bring up Johansen from the AHL.
Ideally what management would like to see is Brassard become that #1 center and then they can put Johansen on the #2 line when he comes up in 2 years, and move Vermette down to the 3rd line since he plays good both ways and he'll have the added playmaking ability that Pahlsson doesn't have to make our current 3rd line better.
If they can find a way to resign Umberger, our future 3rd line in a couple years could look like Dorsett/Wilson-Vermette-Umberger
Or overall. Hopefully Filatov reaches his potential at some point. 1 wing position in the future will be kind of tricky to figure out. Could be Filatov or Calvert. Outside of that, I imagine this year the Jackets will be spending a draft pick on a RW if a good one is available unless they see a defender that looks like they could be better than the 3-4 good ones we have in our system at the moment. If Umberger is resigned it against gives us the depth of having a top 6 forward that can move up a line or down to the 3rd line whenever things need to be shaken up or if a top 6 guy is injured.
Defense could look like anything in 2 years. We have 3 defenders signed past the next 2 years, and 2 with pending RFA to add another year. The only one "out" by then is Jan Hejda. And yet he's been mostly good for us. So that leaves a lot of questions about who stays, who goes, and who eventually gets a call up to the NHL from the AHL.
Looking at the upcoming draft, I would expect us to grab a RW or defender with the 1st round pick, a forward or goalie with the 2nd round pick, LW or goalie with the 3rd round pick
When I look at estimates from an internally built team by 2012-2013, it's a team minus Tyutin, Clark, Pahlsson, Moreau, Huselius, Boll, Hejda, and possibly Strahlman.
I put in 1.5M for backup goalie. Maybe it's Garon. Maybe it's someone else. I gave Voracek 4M in arbitration and Filatov 2.5M. I gave Dorsett 1.75M. Methot got 3.2M. When I combine the salaries if this team doesn't add anyone of higher value from UFA, the cap hit in 2012-2013 will be around 51-53M, when the cap will likely be around 62-65M by that point. It will be up to Howson to determine if he wants to replace a Huselius with a solid 2nd line winger or build from internally and whether or not he resigns Umberger or Hejda (2 most likely UFAs to be resigned). It will also be up to him to determine what to do with the mess of defenders we have with the logjam we have in the AHL.
