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12-20-2010, 06:50 PM
  #1
RyanBozak
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Potential Christmas Storm

Don't know if Hp is on board with me but..

Take this lightly for now (also, if the mods think this is a bit pre-mature remove it and I'll post it a day or two from now) but it seems like a nasty winter storm could be unfolding for the Tri-State within the 24-26 time-frame.

Seeing as these days are major travel days for many, a snowstorm on Christmas or the day after can cause major headaches and problems for those that are travelling. I/others will hopefully keep this updated to make you guys aware of the storm/potential storm.


It's a bit early at this point (3-4 days out is still far away) but most of the major computer models have been depicting a storm falling within the 24th-26th time frame for the SE Mid-Atlantic and NE. Not going into specifics this far out, but quite a few of the models and different runs have put NYC/LI/NJ in the bullseye for major snows (talking 1-2 feet snows) and a nasty wind storm. Like I said though, it's really early and this future system hasn't even made it to land on the west coast yet, so the models will have a better grasp and a clearer solution in the up-coming days.

But as I said above, I always feels it's necessary to have people at least understand what's happening and that the potential is there, rather than going somewhere blindly and getting trapped/caught in a snowstorm/bad weather because of various reasons. Also, don't be surprised if many of the major news channels don't cover much on the storm; It's kind of a horrible situation to forecast due to the holidays and hype/non-hype. Say things early and get people nervous and the storm busts, there will be a riot calling for someone's head. Don't say anything at all and possibly put people's live's at risk. Kind of like damned if you do and damned if you don't.


Anyway, here's just a little eye candy:





First one is the total precip for the storm from the 18z (lol) run on the GFS. Now, normally people would use a 10:1 (10 inches of snow per 1 inch of liquid precip) for amounts, but seeing as temperatures will be crashing and much below freezing, a better estimate for snow growth/ratio would be higher/more like 15:1 for a lot of the area away from the sea. Purple = 1.75-2.00 inches (Liquid Precip). Next shade = 1.5-1.75 inches. Next shade = 1.25-1.5 inches. So on and so forth.

Second image is of the DGEX model, which normally no one puts much faith into, but it depicts a 970mb low sitting offshore, which is quite nasty.

Again, don't look for amounts or backyard totals or anything until the kinks are worked out, if there even is a storm. Just throwing this up as a precaution to keep the idea in the back of your minds if you are interested in the weather or travelling for the holidays.

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Old
12-20-2010, 06:56 PM
  #2
NYRFAN218
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Yeah HP brought it up in the OT thread as a possibility. Should be interesting to say the least.

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12-20-2010, 07:08 PM
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i hope so

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12-20-2010, 07:18 PM
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Please keep this as a separate thread. It is a major deal for all New Yorkers, especially at this time of the year. Many people will be referring to this over the next few days.

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12-20-2010, 07:25 PM
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**** this. I do NOT want snow on Christmas.

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Old
12-20-2010, 07:29 PM
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Weather.com doesn't seem to think it's a big deal...yet. Looking at the extended forecast they only show snow flurries on Sunday. Then again I never trust weather forecasts more than 72 hours out.

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12-20-2010, 07:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by broadwayblue View Post
Weather.com doesn't seem to think it's a big deal...yet. Looking at the extended forecast they only show snow flurries on Sunday. Then again I never trust weather forecasts more than 72 hours out.
Weather.com is horrendous when it comes to predicting snow a few days out. They're always wrong.

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12-20-2010, 07:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Balej20 View Post
Please keep this as a separate thread. It is a major deal for all New Yorkers, especially at this time of the year. Many people will be referring to this over the next few days.
Agreed, with many of us traveling and commuting to work around this time of year it would be very helpful.

Plus we have a valuable poster in HP who can really keep us up to date and let us know how to prepare.


P.S. I believe he was already on this in the off topic thread, nice try beating him to the punch though lol

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12-20-2010, 07:38 PM
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I'm not traveling that far for Christmas, so some snow would be nice.

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Old
12-20-2010, 07:47 PM
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Been a pretty brutal winter so far. Way below average temp most of the time, IIRC. Now here comes our first snow storm...

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12-20-2010, 07:54 PM
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weather.gov predicting snow for saturday an sunday.

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12-20-2010, 07:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skroob View Post
Been a pretty brutal winter so far. Way below average temp most of the time, IIRC. Now here comes our first snow storm...
Funny, in weather terms, winter started two weeks ago. Astronomical winter begins tomorrow. We're not even in winter (or barely) yet .

Regardless, we're in a La Nina pattern, which usually doesn't produce or allow big storms to occur. Key word is usually. There have been dates in the past that have had big snowstorms during La Nina years, which have had nice snowstorm totals, but climatologically speaking, a big storm is against the odds. What is nice about this is that it's A) unexpected and B) Just happens to fall on/near christmas, during a year in which we're not expecting something big.

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12-20-2010, 09:03 PM
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I appreciate the heads up.. But seriously? Most high-tech big News channels can not get TOMORROWS weather correctly, and you can seriously tell me whats going to happen 6 days from now?

Now I did NOT read most of your thread. If I missed something, I do appologize. You had fancy pictures and what not. Is your career in life a meteorologist? If so, thanks for the heads up. If it is your past time hobby, than Please, just let me know on the 23rd whats up.

Merry Christmas everyone!

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12-20-2010, 09:08 PM
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Appreciate the meteorological scoop. Thanks for the heads up.

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12-20-2010, 09:12 PM
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I recommend the Farmer's Almanac. They've nailed the last couple years to a T.. especially last year's insane snow in NJ.

DECEMBER 2010: temperature 37 (1 below avg.); precipitation 2.0" (1" below avg.); Dec 1-6: Sunny, then rain, mild; Dec 7-10: Snow north, showers south; Dec 11-16: Sunny, cold; Dec 17-19: Rainy, mild; Dec 20-25: Sunny; cold, then mild; Dec 26-28: Rain, then sunny, mild; Dec 29-31: Rain, mild.

http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/zipcode/08648

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Old
12-20-2010, 09:30 PM
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If we dont get Snow on Xmas, im going to be PISSED. We need a damn snow storm already!!

I remember all the weather places saying the first half of the cold season we were suppose to see most of our snowfall and the second half would be quiet. Does that mean we are going to get no snow all year since the first half is already half over and we've had nothing but an inch.

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12-20-2010, 09:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gotmonte View Post
I appreciate the heads up.. But seriously? Most high-tech big News channels can not get TOMORROWS weather correctly, and you can seriously tell me whats going to happen 6 days from now?

Now I did NOT read most of your thread. If I missed something, I do appologize. You had fancy pictures and what not. Is your career in life a meteorologist? If so, thanks for the heads up. If it is your past time hobby, than Please, just let me know on the 23rd whats up.

Merry Christmas everyone!

I'm going to school and majoring in Meteorology, so at this point, maybe a hobby/pre-career type thing? I've been studying the weather from an academic standpoint for a few years now, but as an enthusiast, for many years.

What people need to understand about the weather is a lot of it is about patterns. Predicting mid-range (3-5/7 days) weather scenarios has been becoming much more reliable with current technology as compared to a decade or two ago. Computer models being able to spit out data and hi res images for the "more likely" scenarios later in the week is now much more reliable for overall developing storms. It's a lot more accurate in giving a general "guidance" than the common non-weather enthusiast or non-meteorologist thinks.

With what you said above, weather on T.V works entirely differently than what's actually happening/could happen/etc. Your weather anchors on T.V are not only restricted on what they are/are not allowed to say to the public by their stations, but quite often have to be conservative/bullish in scenarios where it is/is not needed and are limited on time and explanations. T.V weather from news stations are for people who are walking out the door and want to hear what's happening or for those that are looking for a short range forecast.

Of course everyone is going to be wrong all the time with the weather, it's absolutely unpredictable sometimes. What's so great about it is understanding why it's so unpredictable and what we can do about it.

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Old
12-20-2010, 09:34 PM
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For those of us flying into NY for the holidays, this could be a disaster.

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12-20-2010, 09:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jumbo View Post
If we dont get Snow on Xmas, im going to be PISSED. We need a damn snow storm already!!

I remember all the weather places saying the first half of the cold season we were suppose to see most of our snowfall and the second half would be quiet. Does that mean we are going to get no snow all year since the first half is already half over and we've had nothing but an inch.
It's not even officially winter yet and NYC gets most of its snow in January and Feb. Christmas snow is rare, so don't get your hopes up.

Of course, you can always try and get to London--it's been snowing there a lot. I think they said the airports were about to re-open. Or Rome--saw a snowy picture from there on the news last night. Or just about anywhere in Northern Europe. They're suffering through miserable cold and snow.

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Old
12-20-2010, 09:46 PM
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Looks like a similar situation to this past weekend. Could be a rather large winter storm or it could slide out to our south and east. For now all that can be said is there is a chance for a storm. We'll have to wait until the event gets closer before any details are known.

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12-20-2010, 09:47 PM
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Oh absolutely. I didn't mean to sound bullish at all, and if I did, I apologize, but I'm generalizing NJ/PA/NY/LI/CT. Obviously could be a big swing in terms of anything between those areas.

12z Euro yesterday buried us. GGEM as well. Model support was there for high totals, but has since backed off. 12Z GFS was a bit high on the QPF. Was just stating that the "potential" for 1-2 feet is there, but not likely. A snowstorm is more likely than a no-storm right now, so just threw that out there.


Regardless, I agree with all except the moisture comment. GFS will always underplay the QPF, as well as a lot of the longer range models. You don't have a 980-995 mb low coming off of NC/VA/MD spitting out .25-.50 while passing the benchmark. I'm pretty sure that if,

A) We get phasing to occur we'll have plenty of moisture to work with. Of course the timing of this will effect who and how much each area gets (Mid Atlantic needs it to phase earlier, if it phases later, the NE will get the bulk of the high precip), but that of course is to be seen.

B) The ridging out west is being underplayed by some of the models. The trend I've been seeing today is that the models have been underplaying the trof and have been moving towards a more neutral to slightly negative tilt rather than a flat-wave moving across the country.

But, again, just my opinion. For those that missed me saying it above, the -Threat- is there, for a MECS/SECS (Major/Significant East Coast Storm), but it's quite a ways out. At this point, it's more likely we're looking at a moderate-small event in some-way shape or form, or a miss.

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Old
12-20-2010, 10:08 PM
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I'm less concerned about snow, and more concerned about THUNDERSNOW! BRING IT ON!

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Old
12-20-2010, 10:09 PM
  #23
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Originally Posted by ScottB View Post
Oh absolutely. I didn't mean to sound bullish at all, and if I did, I apologize, but I'm generalizing NJ/PA/NY/LI/CT. Obviously could be a big swing in terms of anything between those areas.

12z Euro yesterday buried us. GGEM as well. Model support was there for high totals, but has since backed off. 12Z GFS was a bit high on the QPF. Was just stating that the "potential" for 1-2 feet is there, but not likely. A snowstorm is more likely than a no-storm right now, so just threw that out there.


Regardless, I agree with all except the moisture comment. GFS will always underplay the QPF, as well as a lot of the longer range models. You don't have a 980-995 mb low coming off of NC/VA/MD spitting out .25-.50 while passing the benchmark. I'm pretty sure that if,

A) We get phasing to occur we'll have plenty of moisture to work with. Of course the timing of this will effect who and how much each area gets (Mid Atlantic needs it to phase earlier, if it phases later, the NE will get the bulk of the high precip), but that of course is to be seen.

B) The ridging out west is being underplayed by some of the models. The trend I've been seeing today is that the models have been underplaying the trof and have been moving towards a more neutral to slightly negative tilt rather than a flat-wave moving across the country.

But, again, just my opinion. For those that missed me saying it above, the -Threat- is there, for a MECS/SECS (Major/Significant East Coast Storm), but it's quite a ways out. At this point, it's more likely we're looking at a moderate-small event in some-way shape or form, or a miss.
The EURO also had a track right to the BM(Bench Mark) soutH or se of cape cod and it too was moisture starved...only spitting around 0.50" of QPF(Liquid) for NYC.

This can easily change tho...we're 5 days out...in fact the GFS seems to be coming in more amped....the s/w is slower and might allow enough time to phase.

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Old
12-20-2010, 10:18 PM
  #24
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^ Like I anticipated the new GFS absolutely CRUSHES most of NYC and LI!

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12-20-2010, 10:21 PM
  #25
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This run of the GFS is borderline historic.....boy what a shift.

NYC has 1.1 inches of liquid and still coming down...11 inches and counting per the GFS...throw in the heights crashing b/c of a deepening LP and you have yourself good ratios to work with too.

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