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Nice article about O'Reilly

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Old
12-04-2010, 06:30 PM
  #76
Jimmy Carter
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Originally Posted by ABasin View Post
Sure, but that's why one of the sample sizes I used is 88 games. One could make the streakiness argument if one focused solely on 10 games, or 20 games, etc.

5 goals in 88 games does not represent offensive 'streakiness'. It represents offensive ineptitude.

I mean, we can't really define a whole season plus as a 'streak' now, can we?

-AB
Wasn't trying to say his whole season was a "streak". He started his rookie season on an awesome streak, then had a big slump before getting a bit of consistency (not scoring a ton, but consistent).

What I'm saying is that based on those huge highs and lows, it would not be unreasonable to think that he could catch fire later in the season, making it almost pointless to project his goals for the year at this point. If you had tried to predict his scoring for the season at this time last year, he'd probably have been a 60 something point player, which clearly he is not at this point in his career.

You are right that if he continues on this pace, no one could justify that poor of an offensive performance. I am saying that his pace will vary greatly based on what section of games you look at. Whether that pace increases from now or decreases, I don't know (hoping it increases though lol).

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12-04-2010, 06:50 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by PeterTheGreat View Post
But he's really not. He's playing good D, but not awesome by any means IMO.

Basically what we have RIGHT NOW, is a very good fourth line center. I'm not saying thats all O'Reilly will ever be, because after all he is only 19 and has the potential to be more, but right now he's just not cutting it as the third line center.


Maybe when Galiardi comes back they can move him to the third line pivot role, and move O'Reilly to the fourth.

Since Gally and Stew will likely be back around the same time:

Jones-Stastny-Hejduk
Flash-Duchene-Stewart
Winnik-Galiardi-Porter/Yip
McLeod-O'Reilly-Porter/Yip
The last few games his D has been slipping a little too. I like the kid and think he will be fine but I think he is feeling the lack of offense and it is effecting his overall game. I believe he will turn out to be a fine player but right now it is looking like he was rushed a little bit.

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12-04-2010, 09:19 PM
  #78
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I'll buy that he was rushed a bit. Still, I don't see him needing any longer than a year or two in the A. Besides, it won't put him significantly behind the curve, since the rest of the league is rushing their prospects, too.

O'Reilly is fine. He's not been an offensive dynamo this year, absolutely not. But his defense more than makes up for it, even when he's slumping offensively. Would you trade a middle-of-the-road NHL 3rd line center's what, 10-15 points for 19 year old O'Reilly's 7 points, all the while sacrificing his defensive and PK ability?

Of course not.

The kid will be fine. Curious that ABasin should be so vocal in this debate, considering his tendency to harp on others about being patient during a rebuild. Which is fine -- I do it too -- but this is just another part of the rebuild in which fans will have to be patient.

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12-04-2010, 09:46 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by volaju View Post
The kid will be fine. Curious that ABasin should be so vocal in this debate, considering his tendency to harp on others about being patient during a rebuild. Which is fine -- I do it too -- but this is just another part of the rebuild in which fans will have to be patient.
I'm fine with patient. But a 3rd line center with a 4 goal pace is cause for concern, IMO. I'm not for putting O'R in Erie or anything, but rather...deflect from the "he's only 19, all is great!" mentality that seems to be pervasive. There's an issue that needs to be addressed.

One of the necessary ingredients of patience during a rebuild, is improvement. Do you see improvement in O'R's offensive game? I don't.

-AB

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12-04-2010, 10:18 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by ABasin View Post
I'm fine with patient. But a 3rd line center with a 4 goal pace is cause for concern, IMO. I'm not for putting O'R in Erie or anything, but rather...deflect from the "he's only 19, all is great!" mentality that seems to be pervasive. There's an issue that needs to be addressed.

One of the necessary ingredients of patience during a rebuild, is improvement. Do you see improvement in O'R's offensive game? I don't.
I'd agree that "he's only 19" dismissive mentality would be problematic ... would be problematic if he wasn't so far along in other aspects of his development. O'Reilly plays like a 32 year old, prime of his life, shutdown center.

Even if he were to put up no more than 5 goals a season the rest of his career, I'm pretty sure he'd have a spot on an NHL club for the next decade by virtue of his defense and forecheck. That's where the "he's only 19" rhetoric comes into play: yes, we'd like to see him score more, but defensively he is more than carrying his weight. Considering the virtues of his defensive game and his age, it's worth being patient -- or stated more simply, "chill br0, he's only 19."

As far as his offense, yes, I do see improvements. He's not scoring as much now compared to last season, no; but stats don't tell the whole story. His cycling in the zone has been better this year and he's shooting more. No, he hasn't had the results yet; but keep in mind this team is missing 3 players, 2 of which fit in the top 6, which effects who he plays with. (I can't wait to see O'R with Galiardi again, personally.)

To focus on this slump is just as egregious an error as when fans were penciling him in for a 40 goal season after October of 2009.

If I'm going to take any issue with his offensive game, it's that Smyth-esque, top-of-the-circle, very predictable slapper when he flies into the offensive zone. When he scored that goal early this season, I said, enjoy -- Smyth scores approximately one of those per season, and you got yours early. Time to start looking for a new way to score.

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12-05-2010, 12:56 AM
  #81
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Originally Posted by volaju View Post
I'd agree that "he's only 19" dismissive mentality would be problematic ... would be problematic if he wasn't so far along in other aspects of his development. O'Reilly plays like a 32 year old, prime of his life, shutdown center.
Does he though? He's certainly good defensively. 'Shutdown center'? Seriously?

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Originally Posted by volaju View Post
As far as his offense, yes, I do see improvements. He's not scoring as much now compared to last season, no; but stats don't tell the whole story. His cycling in the zone has been better this year and he's shooting more.
He is?

See, here's the problem. Assumptions. Everyone is giving O'R all kinds of benefits of the doubt without looking at the actual facts.

If you look at the last 25 games of last season, O'R had 50 SOG. The first 25 games of this season? 49 SOG. (Unless of course you are talking about total shots that miss the net. In which case I'll simply abandon the discussion.) He's not playing any differently offensively. And his offensive production isn't very good - for anything other than a 4th line guy.

Facts: Last 25 games of last season: 1 goal. First 25 games of this season: 1 goal.

Yes, his cycling is solid......until he gets control of the puck. Then he looks like Cody McLeod after a six-pack. Unlike....for example....Winnik, who controls the thing and tries to do something with it.

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No, he hasn't had the results yet; but keep in mind this team is missing 3 players, 2 of which fit in the top 6, which effects who he plays with. .
Yesyesyes. I know. God knows, I know. But again - for the 150,393,576th time - why then are the other lower level forwards scoring at paces that clearly outstrip O'R? They are dealing with the same injury issues, no?

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Originally Posted by volaju View Post
(I can't wait to see O'R with Galiardi again, personally.)
Amen. O'R/Galiardi/Winnik looks like a terrific 3rd line.

If O'R scores a bit more, of course.

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Originally Posted by volaju View Post
To focus on this slump is just as egregious an error as when fans were penciling him in for a 40 goal season after October of 2009..
Ugh.

The point you are missing - that you are all missing (except PTG) - is that it's not a slump. It's a trend. It's a reality. If we were talking about but 5 games, or 10 games, or even 20 games - that differed from some other larger reality - it could be labeled a slump.

But 5 goals in 90 games - or 2 goals in 50 games - is not a slump. It is indicative of the player's capabilities.

-AB


Last edited by ABasin: 12-05-2010 at 01:07 AM.
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12-05-2010, 01:16 AM
  #82
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Originally Posted by ABasin View Post
3x more goals than O'R?

You guys can defend the Golden Boy all day long, but in the end - regardless of injuries, regardless of defense, regardless of PK, regardless of comparisons to other players 10 years ago - 4 goals per season isn't acceptable for a 3rd line center for a playoff-caliber NHL team. It simply isn't.

-AB
Do you honestly think he will only score 4 goals? I would be willing to place money he scores more than that.

Anyways, O'Reilly has been a damn fine 3rd line center for us. When hes been on ice during ES, the team has 9 goals against. Thats 2.18 GA/60, much lower than both Stastny (3.02) and Duchene's lines (2.75). Our team does not have a problem scoring goals, we need O'Reilly providing defense for us. Would it be nice if he contributes more offensively, sure. But thats not how I judge his contributions, especially since hes just not been given that role.


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12-05-2010, 01:25 AM
  #83
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Yesyesyes. I know. God knows, I know. But again - for the 150,393,576th time - why then are the other lower level forwards scoring at paces that clearly outstrip O'R? They are dealing with the same injury issues, no?
Because they're not playing the same role as O'Reilly. None of Porter, Yip, Mauldin, or Dupuis are as defensively capable as O'Reilly. They're not expected to do the same things as him. Only Winnik is near O'Reilly's level of defensive responsibility, and he has been pretty quiet lately, too. Porter has definitely cooled off. Dupuis had a goal tonight and Mauldin had a productive game last week. These last two examples haven't been trends, they've been the occasional good game/point. I don't think their respective peformances indicate that everyone is thriving just fine while O'Reilly struggles.

And the point you seem to be willfully missing is two-fold:

1) That O'Reilly's offense isn't the meat of his game. He is not an NHL contributor for his point production, obviously. Yet he's not going anywhere because there is no one in the system right now who comes close to replacing what he brings every night.

2) You can't quantify a guy's successes or failures with stats alone.

But point #1 is really the heart of the issue. OK, so he's not scoring as much as we'd like -- what now? You say you don't want him in Erie. Neither do I, nor most other fans, I'd guess. What's your point? We've all agreed he should be scoring more.

If your internet jihad boils down to you believing O'Reilly will never be capable of scoring in the NHL, I'll take you on that. Considering he's an extremely responsible, hard-working teenager, I like the odds for the opposition here. And considering you made an almost identical prediction of TJ Galiardi exactly one year ago before admitting you were wrong months later, yeah, I'll take you on that.

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12-05-2010, 01:30 AM
  #84
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Originally Posted by Pure View Post
Do you honestly think he will only score 4 goals? I would be willing to place money he scores more than that.
I wouldn't bet my life that he's going to score more than 4 if thats what your asking.

IMO it's touch and go if he gets more than 4 or 5 this year. He just isn't providing anything even close to resembling some offense. Sometimes players go through spells where they aren't scoring but they are getting chances or creating chances, but O'Reilly isn't even getting chances. In fact, I barely seem him within 5 feet of the net. He plays a very perimeter offensive game, and he doesn't have the shot or the skills to play that type of game and still put up points.

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12-05-2010, 01:40 AM
  #85
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Originally Posted by PeterTheGreat View Post
I wouldn't bet my life that he's going to score more than 4 if thats what your asking.

IMO it's touch and go if he gets more than 4 or 5 this year. He just isn't providing anything even close to resembling some offense. Sometimes players go through spells where they aren't scoring but they are getting chances or creating chances, but O'Reilly isn't even getting chances. In fact, I barely seem him within 5 feet of the net. He plays a very perimeter offensive game, and he doesn't have the shot or the skills to play that type of game and still put up points.
O'Reilly's had his chances. He had a break away just the other night against Carolina. I agree about playing too perimeter though, he should definitely be trying to crash the net more and just collect some garbage goals. I think he will still get his 8 goals this year (barring injury), you can quote me on that.

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12-05-2010, 01:42 AM
  #86
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Originally Posted by Pure View Post
O'Reilly's had his chances. He had a break away just the other night against Carolina. I agree about playing too perimeter though, he should definitely be trying to crash the net more and just collect some garbage goals. I think he will still get his 8 goals this year (barring injury), you can quote me on that.
Meh, chances are very few and very far between.

I doubt he gets 8, but I could be wrong. We'll see I guess. I hope I am wrong.

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12-05-2010, 01:44 AM
  #87
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I could see him getting between 5-8 if he gets Galiardi or Jones on his line.

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12-05-2010, 11:01 AM
  #88
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Originally Posted by volaju View Post
Because they're not playing the same role as O'Reilly. None of Porter, Yip, Mauldin, or Dupuis are as defensively capable as O'Reilly. They're not expected to do the same things as him. Only Winnik is near O'Reilly's level of defensive responsibility, and he has been pretty quiet lately, too.
I agree with that. And that's why those guys get so much less IT than O'R does. Yet still manage to score much more. And they're nothing special either. A few hot games here, a few goals there - but even *that* is better than what O'R provides offensively.

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Originally Posted by volaju View Post
And the point you seem to be willfully missing is two-fold:

1) That O'Reilly's offense isn't the meat of his game. He is not an NHL contributor for his point production, obviously. Yet he's not going anywhere because there is no one in the system right now who comes close to replacing what he brings every night.

2) You can't quantify a guy's successes or failures with stats alone.
I'm not missing either of those things. I perfectly understand O'R's main purpose on the ice.

The point you seem to be willfully missing is also two-fold:

1) It's just that 3rd line centers (on teams that want to make the playoffs) have to score now and again, regardless of their other responsibilities.

2) O'R's not scoring isn't a slump. It's a long-term trend.

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But point #1 is really the heart of the issue. OK, so he's not scoring as much as we'd like -- what now? You say you don't want him in Erie. Neither do I, nor most other fans, I'd guess. What's your point? We've all agreed he should be scoring more.
Well, this is a discussion forum, no? A place to bring up concerns, etc.? I'm not sure what the answer is, other than the man picking it up. The Avs possibly stifled his offensive development by bringing him up so early. In the end, I suspect the right thing to do is to just have O'R play through it, let him grow up on the job during this rebuild.

Does that mean that no one is allowed to bring up concerns along the way?

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Originally Posted by volaju View Post
boils down to you believing O'Reilly will never be capable of scoring in the NHL, I'll take you on that. Considering he's an extremely responsible, hard-working teenager, I like the odds for the opposition here. And considering you made an almost identical prediction of TJ Galiardi exactly one year ago before admitting you were wrong months later, yeah, I'll take you on that.
You'll "take me on that"? What, are we going to meet in the playground after school - come alone? I do not know why you cannot seem to have a debate with me without bringing up something personal about me....without getting ugly. Why can't you simply discuss the topic at hand?

And since you fired the first shot across the bow, you also aren't omnipotent on the prediction front, Mr. "Let's bring Forsberg back for another turn" (from last season).

You don't know whether O'R will turn into an NHL scorer any more than I. It seems that you are simply assuming O'R will get better offensively because he's 19 and he works hard. That may be so, but there is ample evidence to the contrary as well. I have every bit of a right to bring that forward as you do with your point of view.

Official counts:

- 0 goals, 1 assist in the last 16 games.
- 2 goals in the last 52 games.

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If your internet jihad boils down to you believing
Yeah, you just can't seem to have a 3-post discussion with me without getting a little personal and nasty, can you?

Goodbye, Volaju.

-AB


Last edited by ABasin: 12-05-2010 at 11:21 AM.
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12-05-2010, 12:07 PM
  #89
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Yeah, you just can't seem to have a 3-post discussion with me without getting a little personal and nasty, can you?
Jeez dude, grow some thicker skin! It's just an internet forum!

Quote:
I'm not missing either of those things. I perfectly understand O'R's main purpose on the ice.
You sure about that?:

Quote:
that's why [Porter, Mauldin, Yip, Dupuis] guys get so much less IT than O'R does. Yet still manage to score much more. And they're nothing special either. A few hot games here, a few goals there - but even *that* is better than what O'R provides offensively.
I don't think you do understand. O'Reilly gets a lot more ice time because he's thrown out in crucial defensive situations: PK, defensive zone faceoffs, etc. Myopically focusing on ice time might make it seem even worse that O'Reilly is being outscored by these guys*, but not when you understand what kind of ice time it is.

* And by these guys, I mean Yip. Only Yip has more points than O'Reilly. And Yip has seen pretty significant top 6 time this year due to injuries. If we're talking goals, okay: Yip has 5 more, Winnik has 4 more, Porter has 4 more, Dupuis has 2 more, Mauldin has 2 more. I wouldn't trade any of those guys for O'Reilly, even if they have the offensive edge at this point. And by offensive edge I mean a maximum of 5 goals. O'Reilly's defensive work is worth that trade-off.

Again, the discussion boils down to this: yes, I'd like to see him scoring more. I agree with you. Again, I ask: so what? What's next? Do you want to just flame anyone who believes he'll eventually put it together?

Quote:
You'll "take me on that"? What, are we going to meet in the playground after school - come alone? I do not know why you cannot seem to have a debate with me without bringing up something personal about me....without getting ugly. Why can't you simply discuss the topic at hand?
What? I'm saying I'll take the odds behind our disagreement here. And past experience shows that your word isn't gospel when you're criticizing young players.


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12-05-2010, 01:18 PM
  #90
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I think mostly the person I'm gonna trust to handle Radar is Sacco. Sacco keeps giving the guy a crapton of minutes, so obviously he's doing the job Sacco wants him to do. He's very good at handling the defense. At this point, that's all that really matters to be honest. Sacco knows vast amounts more than we do about hockey.

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12-05-2010, 02:17 PM
  #91
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I think mostly the person I'm gonna trust to handle Radar is Sacco. Sacco keeps giving the guy a crapton of minutes, so obviously he's doing the job Sacco wants him to do. He's very good at handling the defense. At this point, that's all that really matters to be honest. Sacco knows vast amounts more than we do about hockey.
Not really.

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12-05-2010, 04:48 PM
  #92
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And so it is. I was wrong, haha.

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12-05-2010, 06:53 PM
  #93
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14 minutes is 3rd line minutes. Last game he only got 10 due to the team needing offense. He's put out there in defensive situations, not when the team needs offense.

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12-05-2010, 08:21 PM
  #94
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I don't know if just me but he doesn't seem to be quite as good as he was last season. I know he's not supposed to really be an offensive weapon but even his defense seems a little sub-par compared to last season. Hopefully things pick up for him.

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12-05-2010, 08:25 PM
  #95
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14 minutes is 3rd line minutes. Last game he only got 10 due to the team needing offense. He's put out there in defensive situations, not when the team needs offense.
They needed some defense pretty much the whole game.

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12-05-2010, 08:28 PM
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They needed some defense pretty much the whole game.
When you're down 2, you don't think defense first. They were down 2 for a large part of the game and thus had to push things offensively, not defensively.

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12-05-2010, 08:32 PM
  #97
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14 minutes is 3rd line minutes. Last game he only got 10 due to the team needing offense. He's put out there in defensive situations, not when the team needs offense.
I sure hope he picks it up. The team is really going to need it for the next month, until Stewart/Galiardi get back. Porter had a nice stretch there. Hope O'R does the same.

I think I'll go out on a limb and predict O'R busts out of his slump against Florida on Tuesday.

-AB

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12-05-2010, 09:06 PM
  #98
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I still think O Reilly has the tools to become a good shut down C who chips in offensively. He works hard and sees the ice well. He was a scorer in junior so he does have decent hands. I'm just worried (and have been since last season) that Sacco pidgeon holes him into this role now and he never develops his offensive tools. At some point the luster of youth and making the NHL at 18 wear off and we are stuck with a 4th liner who gets you 5 goals a year.

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12-05-2010, 09:16 PM
  #99
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ABasin View Post
I'm fine with patient. But a 3rd line center with a 4 goal pace is cause for concern, IMO. I'm not for putting O'R in Erie or anything, but rather...deflect from the "he's only 19, all is great!" mentality that seems to be pervasive. There's an issue that needs to be addressed.

One of the necessary ingredients of patience during a rebuild, is improvement. Do you see improvement in O'R's offensive game? I don't.

-AB
I think offense and namely his skating are definitely areas where O'Reilly needs to focus on improving. That being said, I don't think you can bring up PPG pace or goals per game pace with a 3rd line center. They're not realied upon to be consistent point producers, and are more streaky in that area. Just like his early season start last year, he could have a good offensive middle or end to the season and end up with decent numbers.

Improving his skating will drastically help his offense though. It's not necessarily a problem area to his game, because like Stastny his first year, his positioning and reaction to the play is that much quicker where he gets to where he needs to be quicker than most players with the same skating ability. Stastny was able to improve his stride though each year, and I think O'Reilly could do the same. There's just a few too many plays where he can't bring the puck past the red line or into the zone by skating it or passing it, without dumping it in because the forwards and D close on him too quickly instead of having to back up as he handles the puck.

It's an area to improve because O'Reilly can either be a good one dimensional defensive center like Nikolishin, or an extremely valuable two way 3rd line pivot like Jordan Staal or Rod Brind'Amour. One of the small critiques I have of Sacco's decisions last year was him never putting O'Reilly on the 2nd PP unit pretty much the whole year. I think they focused a bit too much on his defensive game, and I think it stiffled his offensive game, and time with the puck. He wasn't in enough situations where he had to think and react to the game offensively, which is still a big part of the development of an 18-20 year old.

Another area to focus on improving is his faceoffs. Like his skating stride, it's not really a negative aspect, but just average at this point. He's still young, and experience and strength come into play, but for him to be that kind of 3rd line pivot most of us see him being, he needs to improve a bit. The whole team is fairly average in the faceoff department. An interesting stat is that Stastny has taken the 3rd most faceoffs in the entire league, and he's only 51%. That means someone needs to step up in that area because if you're relying that heavily on a guy that's barely above even, it can be a problem. It doesn't matter which of the top three lines it comes from, but having a guy that can win those big draws on special teams or at the end of periods and games is huge. Even if the whole team's percentage isn't that great, having a go to guy is huge.

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12-05-2010, 09:55 PM
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Originally Posted by TOOMUCHBREWER View Post
I still think O Reilly has the tools to become a good shut down C who chips in offensively. He works hard and sees the ice well. He was a scorer in junior so he does have decent hands. I'm just worried (and have been since last season) that Sacco pidgeon holes him into this role now and he never develops his offensive tools. At some point the luster of youth and making the NHL at 18 wear off and we are stuck with a 4th liner who gets you 5 goals a year.
Agreed. Pidgeon holing him into this role is wasting his offensive potential. I'm not worried though because O'Reilly has shown so much work ethic that, to me, it's just a matter of time before his effort turns into result. His skating has already improved from last year and his passing/vision is there. His slap shot is pretty heavy as well, but he simply has no idea when to unleash it.

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