HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Western Conference > Pacific Division > San Jose Sharks
Notices

Patrick Marleau Appreciation Thread

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
12-22-2010, 02:38 PM
  #176
SJGoalie32
Registered User
 
SJGoalie32's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: TealTown, USA
Country: United States
Posts: 2,041
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by polmaniac932 View Post
Speaking of speed, though...the reason it seems like he's doing this move a lot more this year is because, well, he IS. I don't think the reason for that is because of a strategic decision, though...he's just noticeably slower this year. Without his speed, it's a lot more difficult to drive the net, and a lot easier to taper off and wait for a passing lane to create a higher percentage play. One-on-one he's not a particularly good player considering his skill-set, so trying to dominate a defenseman or two wouldn't be particularly effective.

Bottom line: speed is Marleau's most effective attribute, and he simply doesn't seem to have it this year. I'm just assuming it's a lack of conditioning.
To his credit, Marleau did seem to be moving much faster last night and look a lot sharper out there. Had one of his best games in a long while, IMO. If he keeps skating like he did last night, his game should get back to what we've come to expect from him.

Now, not that I wish to kick a man when he's down (ahh, who am I kidding.....that's the best time to kick a man! Much harder if you wait til he gets back up), but despite his relatively improved performance last night, there was one play that particularly disturbed me.

PP about midway through the second period. Joe Thornton skated to the net, had an open lane, and threw a perfect cross-crease pass right onto the tape of Dany Heatley's stick at the doorstep. Heater executed a perfect one-timer, but Khabibulan slid across with the left leg pad and made a fabulous save. The rebound popped out to Patrick Marleau a few feet away in the slot. With Khabibulan down in the butterfly, out of position, off balance, and leaving the top half of the net wide open.....Patrick Marleau misfired and shot the puck high and wide.

Now, it was not an easy shot to be sure. The puck was hopping a bit and Marleau had to get the shot off quick before the defensive pressure came. But Patrick Marleau is an NHL player. An All-Star and Olympian at that. The bar has to be higher for him. You work a full 2-minute power play hoping to get an opportunity like that. Entire weeks go by for many NHL players where they never even get to see a loose puck on the tape of their stick while standing unmolested in the slot 10 feet from the goal with the goalie down and out of position. Those opportunities are few and far between in the NHL, especially in the postseason, and when you get them, you simply have to bury them. That is what champions do.

Again, not saying it's an easy play to make. It wasn't. But in the NHL and the postseason in particular, they don't really get much easier than that. Crosby & Malkin would have buried that shot without question. Datsyuk & Zetterberg would have found the twine. Kane & Toews would have scored. That's why they have big shiny rings.

And that's ultimately part of the story of the San Jose Sharks postseason failures year after year in a microcosm. It's not just Marleau.....it's also JT, Heater, Clowe, Seto, and even Pavs in the later rounds last year (throw in Michalek, Cheech, etc.). When given those precious opportunities, the Sharks forwards shot it right into the pads of Niemi....or Anderson, or Hiller, or Turco, or Osgood, or Roloson. When Dustin Byfuglien was faced with the same opportunity with a trip to the Cup Finals on the line........Byfuglien didn't miss.

Champions don't miss those shots.....and those who do miss, golf.

SJGoalie32 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
12-22-2010, 03:00 PM
  #177
Pinkfloyd
Registered User
 
Pinkfloyd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Roseville
Country: United States
Posts: 31,332
vCash: 2283
Every single player has missed that shot you're referencing, SJG. Even champs like Crosby, Malkin, Zetterberg, and Datsyuk miss that shot once in a while. I understand the heightened expectation argument but don't pretend like that's a shot that is made by champs all the time. It's not.

Pinkfloyd is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
12-22-2010, 07:24 PM
  #178
SJGoalie32
Registered User
 
SJGoalie32's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: TealTown, USA
Country: United States
Posts: 2,041
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
Every single player has missed that shot you're referencing, SJG. Even champs like Crosby, Malkin, Zetterberg, and Datsyuk miss that shot once in a while. I understand the heightened expectation argument but don't pretend like that's a shot that is made by champs all the time. It's not.
Obviously it's not made EVERY single time. But the superstuds do seem to execute a far greater percentage of the time.

Baseball is hard enough to see the difference between the studs and the duds. The difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter is one extra base hit--one extra seeing-eye grounder--every week. In hockey, the difference between a HOF'er and a career 3rd liner is the almost imperceptible difference between scoring a goal on 2% of your shifts (1 out of every 50, on avg), and scoring on 0.5% of his shifts (1 out of every 200). Three pucks every two weeks. Three pucks that hit the post and bounce left instead of right, that bank blindly off your stick and carom in instead of wide, that bounce to your stick instead of over it.

You're right. Every player misses that shot occasionally. Some obviously moreso than others. Looking at incredibly small sample size of just that one instance, the outcome of the shot can be attributed to pure luck. But over time, the luck goes away and the outcomes are shown to be the result of skill.

I don't believe in long term luck. I don't believe that the Sharks are just so gosh darned unlucky as to keep running into goaltenders in the playoffs who just keep posting historical record-setting playoff performances year after year, after year, after year, after..... At some point, I believe it's something more than just plain bad luck, and I believe there are underlying explanations and actual examples of such.

So while, again, yes you are correct that this one lone example does not prove anything by itself, I see it as one pixel that colors in the larger picture of the Sharks overall woes as a franchise and exemplifies why they repeatedly come up short in the playoffs......or, if you'd prefer something less over-arching, it's just one example that shows part of why PM is 0-for-10 games.

SJGoalie32 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
12-22-2010, 09:53 PM
  #179
Derick*
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Toronto
Country: Canada
Posts: 9,624
vCash: 500
Send a message via MSN to Derick*
Quote:
Originally Posted by SJGoalie32 View Post
Obviously it's not made EVERY single time. But the superstuds do seem to execute a far greater percentage of the time.

Baseball is hard enough to see the difference between the studs and the duds. The difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter is one extra base hit--one extra seeing-eye grounder--every week. In hockey, the difference between a HOF'er and a career 3rd liner is the almost imperceptible difference between scoring a goal on 2% of your shifts (1 out of every 50, on avg), and scoring on 0.5% of his shifts (1 out of every 200). Three pucks every two weeks. Three pucks that hit the post and bounce left instead of right, that bank blindly off your stick and carom in instead of wide, that bounce to your stick instead of over it.

You're right. Every player misses that shot occasionally. Some obviously moreso than others. Looking at incredibly small sample size of just that one instance, the outcome of the shot can be attributed to pure luck. But over time, the luck goes away and the outcomes are shown to be the result of skill.

I don't believe in long term luck. I don't believe that the Sharks are just so gosh darned unlucky as to keep running into goaltenders in the playoffs who just keep posting historical record-setting playoff performances year after year, after year, after year, after..... At some point, I believe it's something more than just plain bad luck, and I believe there are underlying explanations and actual examples of such.

So while, again, yes you are correct that this one lone example does not prove anything by itself, I see it as one pixel that colors in the larger picture of the Sharks overall woes as a franchise and exemplifies why they repeatedly come up short in the playoffs......or, if you'd prefer something less over-arching, it's just one example that shows part of why PM is 0-for-10 games.
I don't normally do this, but: this is a good post.

Derick* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
12-22-2010, 10:34 PM
  #180
Jesus Toews*
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Davis, CA
Country: United States
Posts: 4,886
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cognition View Post
I don't normally do this, but: this is a good post.
Agreed. SJGoalie32 should post more often.

Jesus Toews* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
12-22-2010, 11:23 PM
  #181
SJeasy
Registered User
 
SJeasy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Jose
Country: United States
Posts: 12,247
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by SJGoalie32 View Post
Obviously it's not made EVERY single time. But the superstuds do seem to execute a far greater percentage of the time.

Baseball is hard enough to see the difference between the studs and the duds. The difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter is one extra base hit--one extra seeing-eye grounder--every week. In hockey, the difference between a HOF'er and a career 3rd liner is the almost imperceptible difference between scoring a goal on 2% of your shifts (1 out of every 50, on avg), and scoring on 0.5% of his shifts (1 out of every 200). Three pucks every two weeks. Three pucks that hit the post and bounce left instead of right, that bank blindly off your stick and carom in instead of wide, that bounce to your stick instead of over it.

You're right. Every player misses that shot occasionally. Some obviously moreso than others. Looking at incredibly small sample size of just that one instance, the outcome of the shot can be attributed to pure luck. But over time, the luck goes away and the outcomes are shown to be the result of skill.

I don't believe in long term luck. I don't believe that the Sharks are just so gosh darned unlucky as to keep running into goaltenders in the playoffs who just keep posting historical record-setting playoff performances year after year, after year, after year, after..... At some point, I believe it's something more than just plain bad luck, and I believe there are underlying explanations and actual examples of such.

So while, again, yes you are correct that this one lone example does not prove anything by itself, I see it as one pixel that colors in the larger picture of the Sharks overall woes as a franchise and exemplifies why they repeatedly come up short in the playoffs......or, if you'd prefer something less over-arching, it's just one example that shows part of why PM is 0-for-10 games.
The reality of the playoffs is that Marleau does perform as a goalscorer. Top ten in the league over the last decade in goals/game. The reality is that 0.5goals/game is not going to win games. It is a team effort. I also agree that the margins are very narrow.

I agree that there is a reason that the Sharks come up short, but it has a lot more to do with the strategy and team makeup than any individual player.

And just on a side note related to Drew's statement that Heatley needs to shoot more.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstatspr...rt=gamesPlayed

Take a look at missed shots (MsS) as a percentage of total shots. It is a big pointer to accuracy. Players are faced with dilemma of accuracy vs quickness and some choose quickness over accuracy (or have to choose quickness). The reality for Heatley is that he is very quick, but not that accurate. Patty slides to the other side of that scale. And just for sentiment's sake, Cheech was way out there on the quickness side of the scale and way down on accuracy.

SJeasy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-29-2011, 01:28 AM
  #182
CaptainShark
Registered User
 
CaptainShark's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Fulda, Germany
Country: Germany
Posts: 2,880
vCash: 500
Just had to bump this up.

It has been overshadowed by Pavs run a little it and by Logan´s numbers, but Patty has been fantastic in the last 2 month. He has been bringing it every night, he has been scoring BIG goals at will and he has finally rediscovered that he can be a very good defensiv forward if he uses his speed and is determined on the back check. Love what he has done down the stretch. Some of his best hockey ever. Go Patty, Go Sharks

CaptainShark is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-29-2011, 02:37 AM
  #183
Chubbs
Toasty
 
Chubbs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 3,021
vCash: 500
I like how he's taking the body more, which is something you'd expect from a guy his size more often.

Chubbs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-29-2011, 01:20 PM
  #184
Blades of Glory
Troll Captain
 
Blades of Glory's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: California
Country: United States
Posts: 18,334
vCash: 500
Marleau's performance is completely and directly tied to his level of confidence. It's a reason why he has for so long been one of the most insanely streaky players in the league. His defensive play is usually a mirror of his offensive play. A confident Marleau is amongst the elite forwards in the NHL; being outstanding defensively and one of the most dangerous goal-scorers in the league. But when he is struggling offensively, his confidence wanes dramatically and it causes his defense to slip quite noticeably. Over the past two months, Marleau has played the best hockey of his career. Never before in his career has he played as dynamic a game as he has since late January. Truthfully, I find his 33 goals this year more impressive than any of his past goal totals, including the 44 he scored last year. Even last year, as impressive as it was, Marleau was never the individual force he has been for the last 25 games. It's nice to see him playing like this going into the playoffs. Remember his slump at the end of last year? He had no confidence by the time the playoffs started and was astonishingly useless until midway into the Detroit series. Thornton was ridiculously dominant in that series, and he managed to wake Patty out of his slumber in time to put away Detroit. Still, when Marleau got hot against Chicago, Thornton went ice cold.

Ever since 2006, I have said that if the Sharks get Thornton and Marleau going at the same time during the playoffs, they will win the Stanley Cup. In 2006 against Edmonton, Marleau was fantastic and Joe was mediocre. In 2007, Joe carried the Sharks against Detroit, while Marleau was terrible. In 2008 against Dallas, Marleau was great and Joe was useless. In 2009, they were both terrible. In 2010, Joe and Marleau switched off as usual, from the Detroit series to the Chicago series. Here's hoping that will finally happen this spring.

Blades of Glory is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-29-2011, 01:26 PM
  #185
KT
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 35
vCash: 500
+1 on the Marleau confidence factor. I've been saying that forever: Patty's an extremely insecure and emotional guy who needs to feel like he's on a roll or he falls apart and turns invisible out there. Let's hope he rolls all the way to Cupkissville.

KT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-29-2011, 01:41 PM
  #186
GCB2000
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 144
vCash: 500
I beg to differ on Marleau and his D-play this year. He has actually be very good all year despite his +/- or other stats. The position in the D zone that he was playing was causing many people to look at him as lazy.

His role in the last few months has been converted to play down low in the D zone. This factor means that he will naturally be more involved in the play. In my opinion playing low in the D zone allows Marleau to utilize his size and speed when exiting the D zone. When we was playing up high early in the season he was getting the puck while standing still which completely eliminated his speed. Now he is in full stride by the time he hits center ice which produces a lot more time and space for himself and the rest of his line.

GCB2000 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-29-2011, 03:04 PM
  #187
Tkachuk4MVP
22 Years of Fail
 
Tkachuk4MVP's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: San Diego, CA
Posts: 9,157
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by KT View Post
+1 on the Marleau confidence factor. I've been saying that forever: Patty's an extremely insecure and emotional guy who needs to feel like he's on a roll or he falls apart and turns invisible out there. Let's hope he rolls all the way to Cupkissville.

Exactly. I pray he's in a good state of mind come playoff time, otherwise it will be the Avs series all over again and (possibly) another early exit.

Tkachuk4MVP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-29-2011, 03:36 PM
  #188
hockeyball
Registered User
 
hockeyball's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 17,524
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tkachuk4MVP View Post
Exactly. I pray he's in a good state of mind come playoff time, otherwise it will be the Avs series all over again and (possibly) another early exit.
Thankfully unlike past years, if Patty (or Joe, or Heatley, or whoever) isn't performing, than we have Pavs, Clowe, Seto, Thornton, Heatley, Couture, and now even Mitchell and Wellwood to step up.

Our scoring depth is impressive. It's our PK that I am most worried about.

hockeyball is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-29-2011, 04:02 PM
  #189
Tkachuk4MVP
22 Years of Fail
 
Tkachuk4MVP's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: San Diego, CA
Posts: 9,157
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
Thankfully unlike past years, if Patty (or Joe, or Heatley, or whoever) isn't performing, than we have Pavs, Clowe, Seto, Thornton, Heatley, Couture, and now even Mitchell and Wellwood to step up.

Our scoring depth is impressive. It's our PK that I am most worried about.

This is true, but even those guys disappeared against Chicago. They seem like a different group this year though, so I'm hopeful as well.

Tkachuk4MVP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-29-2011, 06:48 PM
  #190
TheJuxtaposer
Lost a bet
 
TheJuxtaposer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: San Diego, CA
Country: United States
Posts: 26,094
vCash: 567
This probably isn't the best place to put it, because it was initially created to hate on him, but agreed. He had a 6 game point streak going on before this last game that no one really noticed.

TheJuxtaposer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-29-2011, 09:05 PM
  #191
allworldcaucasn*
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Bay Area
Country: United States
Posts: 4,655
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to allworldcaucasn*
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
Thankfully unlike past years, if Patty (or Joe, or Heatley, or whoever) isn't performing, than we have Pavs, Clowe, Seto, Thornton, Heatley, Couture, and now even Mitchell and Wellwood to step up.

Our scoring depth is impressive. It's our PK that I am most worried about.
This is what I'm talking about. More than ever, it's a team thing now. Joe doesn't have to be a 2ppg player in the playoffs. Marleau doesn't need to lead the team in goals. Just play good team D, and go from there.

allworldcaucasn* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-30-2011, 11:21 AM
  #192
SJGoalie32
Registered User
 
SJGoalie32's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: TealTown, USA
Country: United States
Posts: 2,041
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
Thankfully unlike past years, if Patty (or Joe, or Heatley, or whoever) isn't performing, than we have Pavs, Clowe, Seto, Thornton, Heatley, Couture, and now even Mitchell and Wellwood to step up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SJfortheCUP View Post
This is what I'm talking about. More than ever, it's a team thing now. Joe doesn't have to be a 2ppg player in the playoffs. Marleau doesn't need to lead the team in goals. Just play good team D, and go from there.
Actually, you both just highlighted the points I've been trying to make for several years now.

No, JT doesn't need to be a 1-2 PPG player. No, Marleau doesn't need to lead the team in goals.

But if you want to win a Stanley Cup you need SOMEBODY to be a PPG+ player and lead the team in goals. No, those players don't have to be JT and Marleau. But if it's NOT going to be them.......then why the hell are those guys on the team?!

It fascinates me when the Sharks offense disappears in the playoffs, JT and/or Marleau have horrible numbers (depending on the year), and people blame guys like Mitchell and Setoguchi for the lack of scoring. I'm sorry to break it to everyone here, but Torrey Mitchell is not going to have 12 goals and 16 assists over 23 playoff games. He just isn't. He's simply not capable of that. There are guys on this team who are or could be capable of that, but they haven't elevated their game to the competition in the playoffs yet (or at least, not consistently).

You want to know why I bag on the superstars? Money. We're paying $22+ million to 3 guys in Marleau, Thornton, and Heatley specifically to be P+PG and goal scoring leaders in the postseason. They're capable of that, so we pay them 40% of our cap space to put up those kinds of numbers.

SOMEBODY has to put up those numbers for the Sharks to win. If not our gold medalists, then who? Pavelski, Clowe, Couture, and Setoguchi? Alright, fine. We're paying those guys, what, a combined $10 million or so? Great! So if THOSE guys are going to be our top best players and go-to studs in the playoffs......then let's make them our go-to studs and demote the other guys to second liners.

If JT, Marleau, and Heater are never going to put up anything more than second line numbers in the postseason (though at least Marleau has sporadically played like a stud for the Sharks), then let's get rid of those three, free up the cap space, bring in cheaper second liners, and use the extra money to bring in a top-level defenseman or two.

SJGoalie32 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-30-2011, 11:39 AM
  #193
Led Zappa
Oy vey...
 
Led Zappa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Sunnyvale, CA
Country: Scotland
Posts: 32,482
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by SJGoalie32 View Post

You want to know why I bag on the superstars? Money. We're paying $22+ million to 3 guys in Marleau, Thornton, and Heatley specifically to be P+PG and goal scoring leaders in the postseason. They're capable of that, so we pay them 40% of our cap space to put up those kinds of numbers.
I'm not gonna discount your entire post, but you can't simply compare salaries and say they need to be that much better than others on the team. There is only so much talent in the NHL. In general, top UFA's are gonna make more than they probably deserve and players under RFA's are gonna make less than they deserve.

They are also likely to be going up against the best the other team has to offer, which are likely overpaid UFA defensemen. When that happens you need your 2nd and 3rd lines to come through.

__________________

"This is not a nick or a scratch, this is an open wound" - Doug Wilson.
Led Zappa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-30-2011, 11:48 AM
  #194
Jesus Toews*
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Davis, CA
Country: United States
Posts: 4,886
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by SJGoalie32 View Post
Actually, you both just highlighted the points I've been trying to make for several years now.

No, JT doesn't need to be a 1-2 PPG player. No, Marleau doesn't need to lead the team in goals.

But if you want to win a Stanley Cup you need SOMEBODY to be a PPG+ player and lead the team in goals. No, those players don't have to be JT and Marleau. But if it's NOT going to be them.......then why the hell are those guys on the team?!

It fascinates me when the Sharks offense disappears in the playoffs, JT and/or Marleau have horrible numbers (depending on the year), and people blame guys like Mitchell and Setoguchi for the lack of scoring. I'm sorry to break it to everyone here, but Torrey Mitchell is not going to have 12 goals and 16 assists over 23 playoff games. He just isn't. He's simply not capable of that. There are guys on this team who are or could be capable of that, but they haven't elevated their game to the competition in the playoffs yet (or at least, not consistently).

You want to know why I bag on the superstars? Money. We're paying $22+ million to 3 guys in Marleau, Thornton, and Heatley specifically to be P+PG and goal scoring leaders in the postseason. They're capable of that, so we pay them 40% of our cap space to put up those kinds of numbers.

SOMEBODY has to put up those numbers for the Sharks to win. If not our gold medalists, then who? Pavelski, Clowe, Couture, and Setoguchi? Alright, fine. We're paying those guys, what, a combined $10 million or so? Great! So if THOSE guys are going to be our top best players and go-to studs in the playoffs......then let's make them our go-to studs and demote the other guys to second liners.

If JT, Marleau, and Heater are never going to put up anything more than second line numbers in the postseason (though at least Marleau has sporadically played like a stud for the Sharks), then let's get rid of those three, free up the cap space, bring in cheaper second liners, and use the extra money to bring in a top-level defenseman or two.
Leaguewide, every postseason, the top players for every team with very few exceptions produce at roughly 10-15% lower than their regular-season output due to the increase in stringent matchups in addition to a variety of other factors. The reason blame is placed on guys like Mitchell and Seto and Clowe (and Michalek and Goc and Cheechoo in the past) is because the successful teams that end up playing for the silver thing in June are the ones where their lower-line players were able to make up for the 10-15% drop of the big guns by punching above their regular season weight. Does Philly make the Finals last year without Leino, Giroux, Hartnell and Asham making up for the drop in production of Carter and Gagne? Do the Hawks win the Cup without Byfuglien, Bolland, Versteeg and Brouwer compensating for Hossa's meteoric collapse to just 3 goals in 22 playoff games? Do the Penguins win it all in 09 without Talbot coming up huge in Game 7? How about the Ducks in 07 without Moen's 7 goals making up for the fact that no player on their team scored at a point-per-game pace? Also, pointing at salaries is a bit disingenuous since every team pays their top players for regular season production. When's the last time someone took a pay cut for following up an elite regular season with a lackluster playoffs?

Jesus Toews* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-30-2011, 12:06 PM
  #195
WineShark
HFBoards Sponsor
 
WineShark's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Napa Valley, CA
Country: United States
Posts: 6,989
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by SJGoalie32 View Post
Actually, you both just highlighted the points I've been trying to make for several years now.

No, JT doesn't need to be a 1-2 PPG player. No, Marleau doesn't need to lead the team in goals.

But if you want to win a Stanley Cup you need SOMEBODY to be a PPG+ player and lead the team in goals. No, those players don't have to be JT and Marleau. But if it's NOT going to be them.......then why the hell are those guys on the team?!

It fascinates me when the Sharks offense disappears in the playoffs, JT and/or Marleau have horrible numbers (depending on the year), and people blame guys like Mitchell and Setoguchi for the lack of scoring. I'm sorry to break it to everyone here, but Torrey Mitchell is not going to have 12 goals and 16 assists over 23 playoff games. He just isn't. He's simply not capable of that. There are guys on this team who are or could be capable of that, but they haven't elevated their game to the competition in the playoffs yet (or at least, not consistently).

You want to know why I bag on the superstars? Money. We're paying $22+ million to 3 guys in Marleau, Thornton, and Heatley specifically to be P+PG and goal scoring leaders in the postseason. They're capable of that, so we pay them 40% of our cap space to put up those kinds of numbers.

SOMEBODY has to put up those numbers for the Sharks to win. If not our gold medalists, then who? Pavelski, Clowe, Couture, and Setoguchi? Alright, fine. We're paying those guys, what, a combined $10 million or so? Great! So if THOSE guys are going to be our top best players and go-to studs in the playoffs......then let's make them our go-to studs and demote the other guys to second liners.

If JT, Marleau, and Heater are never going to put up anything more than second line numbers in the postseason (though at least Marleau has sporadically played like a stud for the Sharks), then let's get rid of those three, free up the cap space, bring in cheaper second liners, and use the extra money to bring in a top-level defenseman or two.
It's a fair point to say you want your best players to be your best players in the playoffs. But the reality is hockey, more than any other team sport, is a team sport. A great player on a unbalanced team will have a real problem scoring because you need soldiers in the trenches; people to go to that hard places and retrieve the puck. It's a little like a rookie QB that was the #1 pick on a crap NFL team. No matter how good (think John Elway) is, he's not going to single-handedly get the team into the playoffs.

In the case of the Sharks prior to Thornton coming, team's focused on our top line. Shut that down and the team would go nowhere. So in the day, our team philosophy was keep it close with team defense and be tough to play against, and hope we got a good bounce. Thats not the recipe to get the Cup.

Last year we saw the benefit of two lines going, and we got pretty deep. We had a shot. And while I agree you can't blame your third liners, often times in the SC Finals, its some lower line player that makes the difference. I believe thats because the teams focus on shutting down the stars leaving the bottom lines less accounted for in coverage. Thats even more true today when the growing trend has been to match a top line against a top line instead of matching a top line against a shutdown third line.

What I like about the team this year, more than any other of recent vintage, is they are figuring out its NOT about someone scoring a point a game. We have players that can, but its really about focusing on good team defense because that wins championships. With the skill players we have on the team, if we can limit chances of the opposition, I like our chances most nights in the playoffs.

__________________
The Best Sports Team in the Bay Area for 20 Years
WineShark is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-30-2011, 12:35 PM
  #196
SJGoalie32
Registered User
 
SJGoalie32's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: TealTown, USA
Country: United States
Posts: 2,041
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Led Zappa View Post
They are also likely to be going up against the best the other team has to offer, which are likely overpaid UFA defensemen. When that happens you need your 2nd and 3rd lines to come through.
And when your 2nd and 3rd lines don't come through (or when they start drawing the best of the other team because of their production), then the 1st liners need to come through.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Jesus Toews View Post
Leaguewide, every postseason, the top players for every team with very few exceptions produce at roughly 10-15% lower than their regular-season output due to the increase in stringent matchups in addition to a variety of other factors.
League-wide?.....Yes. Teams that win the Stanley Cup?.....Most of the time the team's top players produce at the same level or higher.

And if it was only a 10-15% production dropoff for the Sharks top players where it's clear they are giving it their all, I wouldn't mind so much. A 20-40% statistical dropoff combined with inconsistent to ineffective play? Less forgiving.

SJGoalie32 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-30-2011, 12:52 PM
  #197
Tkachuk4MVP
22 Years of Fail
 
Tkachuk4MVP's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: San Diego, CA
Posts: 9,157
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jesus Toews View Post
Leaguewide, every postseason, the top players for every team with very few exceptions produce at roughly 10-15% lower than their regular-season output due to the increase in stringent matchups in addition to a variety of other factors. The reason blame is placed on guys like Mitchell and Seto and Clowe (and Michalek and Goc and Cheechoo in the past) is because the successful teams that end up playing for the silver thing in June are the ones where their lower-line players were able to make up for the 10-15% drop of the big guns by punching above their regular season weight. Does Philly make the Finals last year without Leino, Giroux, Hartnell and Asham making up for the drop in production of Carter and Gagne? Do the Hawks win the Cup without Byfuglien, Bolland, Versteeg and Brouwer compensating for Hossa's meteoric collapse to just 3 goals in 22 playoff games? Do the Penguins win it all in 09 without Talbot coming up huge in Game 7? How about the Ducks in 07 without Moen's 7 goals making up for the fact that no player on their team scored at a point-per-game pace? Also, pointing at salaries is a bit disingenuous since every team pays their top players for regular season production. When's the last time someone took a pay cut for following up an elite regular season with a lackluster playoffs?

You're half right, but let's look at the scoring leaders for the last 5 Cup Winners:

Hawks - Toews, Kane
Pens - Malkin, Crosby
Wings - Zetterberg, Datsyuk
Ducks - Getzlaf, Perry/Selanne
Canes - Staal, Stillman


Look at those names, all top forwards for their respective teams. And with the exception of Selanne, all of these guys had a PPG greater than or about equal to what they had in the regular season. So while it's true that you need secondary scoring to win in the playoffs, you also need your best players to play like it.

Tkachuk4MVP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-30-2011, 01:01 PM
  #198
SJGoalie32
Registered User
 
SJGoalie32's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: TealTown, USA
Country: United States
Posts: 2,041
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jesus Toews View Post
The reason blame is placed on guys like Mitchell and Seto and Clowe (and Michalek and Goc and Cheechoo in the past) is because the successful teams that end up playing for the silver thing in June are the ones where their lower-line players were able to make up for the 10-15% drop of the big guns by punching above their regular season weight. ...... Do the Hawks win the Cup without Byfuglien, Bolland, Versteeg and Brouwer compensating for Hossa's meteoric collapse to just 3 goals in 22 playoff games?
No, you are correct, they don't.

However, they also don't win the Cup without Kane, Sharp, and Toews producing at the level they did. (I'm surprised that someone named "Jesus Toews" would be so quick to overlook his namesake's heavenly output).

It was great for the Hawks that those 2nd liners came through with what they did. Byfuglien, Brouwer, and Versteeg combined for 21G-17A--38 Pts over 22 games. The Sharks 2nd liners like Pavelski, Clowe, and Setoguchi combined for......16G-20A--36 Pts over only 15 games. Hmmm. Seems to me the Sharks 2nd tier players were (overall, if not in that one series) every bit as productive as the Hawks 2nd tier players.

The actual difference is that, whereas the Hawks had top-flight guys like Kane, Sharp, and Toews producing top-flight numbers to the tune of 28G-51A--79 Pts (even with the relative ineffectiveness of Hossa)......the Sharks have......well, not that. They need that. But they don't have that.

I do love our guys, but there's just no way Seto, Clowe, and Mitchell are putting up those kind of combined numbers. Might as well just ask for a hat trick out of Niemi, too, while we're at it.

There are only a handful of guys in this league talented enough and capable of putting up those kinds of postseason numbers. Either we have those guys and need them to elevate their play to that level (and thus can express disappointment when they don't).....or we don't have those guys and should try to go get them (which we can't do because we don't have the cap space to either sign or trade for those kinds of players).

SJGoalie32 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-30-2011, 01:20 PM
  #199
Jesus Toews*
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Davis, CA
Country: United States
Posts: 4,886
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by SJGoalie32 View Post
No, you are correct, they don't.

However, they also don't win the Cup without Kane, Sharp, and Toews producing at the level they did. (I'm surprised that someone named "Jesus Toews" would be so quick to overlook his namesake's heavenly output).

It was great for the Hawks that those 2nd liners came through with what they did. Byfuglien, Brouwer, and Versteeg combined for 21G-17A--38 Pts over 22 games. The Sharks 2nd liners like Pavelski, Clowe, and Setoguchi combined for......16G-20A--36 Pts over only 15 games. Hmmm. Seems to me the Sharks 2nd tier players were (overall, if not in that one series) every bit as productive as the Hawks 2nd tier players.

The actual difference is that, whereas the Hawks had top-flight guys like Kane, Sharp, and Toews producing top-flight numbers to the tune of 28G-51A--79 Pts (even with the relative ineffectiveness of Hossa)......the Sharks have......well, not that. They need that. But they don't have that.

I do love our guys, but there's just no way Seto, Clowe, and Mitchell are putting up those kind of combined numbers. Might as well just ask for a hat trick out of Niemi, too, while we're at it.

There are only a handful of guys in this league talented enough and capable of putting up those kinds of postseason numbers. Either we have those guys and need them to elevate their play to that level (and thus can express disappointment when they don't).....or we don't have those guys and should try to go get them (which we can't do because we don't have the cap space to either sign or trade for those kinds of players).
I absolutely agree with you that Patty and JT have to lead the way if the Sharks are to win the Stanley Cup but absolving the likes of Seto, Pavs, Clowe and now Couture of significant responsibilities is a mistake because it's very unlikely, based on recent precedent, that Marleau and Thornton will be able to match their regular-season pace (although you'd have to think that Thornton would have to match his pace from this season in this year's playoffs for the team to have a chance), thereby necessitating that the second and third lines step up in the face of lesser matchups. Guys like the Mule, Briere and Ultimate Leader Jonathan Toews are extremely rare and worth their weight in gold because of their ability to actually improve upon already good regular season numbers in the postseason. JT is never going to be at that level. Patty, on the other hand, is close. I'll pull out my favorite statistic again that, since 2003, Marleau is 3rd in the entire NHL in playoff goals. He's had poor series ('07 vs. Red Wings, '10 vs. Avalanche) but, on aggregate, he's been pulling his weight.

Jesus Toews* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-30-2011, 01:32 PM
  #200
Led Zappa
Oy vey...
 
Led Zappa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Sunnyvale, CA
Country: Scotland
Posts: 32,482
vCash: 500
Here are the Numbers of the Wings/Hawks SC and Sharks top 4 PO performers last year and RS stats.

Toews - .89 - PO - 1.31
Kane - 1.07 - PO - 1.27
Sharp - .82 - PO - 1.00
Byfuglien - .41 - PO - .72

Franzen - .77 - PO - 1.50
Zetterberg - .94 - PO - 1.25
Datsyuk - .87 - PO - 1.08
Bertuzzi - .53 - PO - .91

Pavelski - .76 - PO - 1.13
Marleau - 1.01 - PO - .92
Heatley - 1.00 - PO - .92 (Injured)
Thornton 1.12 - PO - .80

Top 4 PO PPG

Blackhawks - .79 - PO - 1.07
Redwings - .77 - PO - 1.18
Sharks - .97 - PO - .94

The difference in the regular season bump for the Sharks was Pavelski at .76 vs Buff/.41 and Bert/.53

I may do the top 6 and edit this post. I'll post if I do.

Led Zappa is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:39 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2014 All Rights Reserved.