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Old
03-30-2011, 01:38 PM
  #201
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Originally Posted by Goalie View Post
No, you are correct, they don't.

However, they also don't win the Cup without Kane, Sharp, and Toews producing at the level they did. (I'm surprised that someone named "Jesus Toews" would be so quick to overlook his namesake's heavenly output).

It was great for the Hawks that those 2nd liners came through with what they did. Byfuglien, Brouwer, and Versteeg combined for 21G-17A--38 Pts over 22 games. The Sharks 2nd liners like Pavelski, Clowe, and Setoguchi combined for......16G-20A--36 Pts over only 15 games. Hmmm. Seems to me the Sharks 2nd tier players were (overall, if not in that one series) every bit as productive as the Hawks 2nd tier players.

The actual difference is that, whereas the Hawks had top-flight guys like Kane, Sharp, and Toews producing top-flight numbers to the tune of 28G-51A--79 Pts (even with the relative ineffectiveness of Hossa)......the Sharks have......well, not that. They need that. But they don't have that.

I do love our guys, but there's just no way Seto, Clowe, and Mitchell are putting up those kind of combined numbers. Might as well just ask for a hat trick out of Niemi, too, while we're at it.

There are only a handful of guys in this league talented enough and capable of putting up those kinds of postseason numbers. Either we have those guys and need them to elevate their play to that level (and thus can express disappointment when they don't).....or we don't have those guys and should try to go get them (which we can't do because we don't have the cap space to either sign or trade for those kinds of players).
What many forget is the series against the Hawks wasn't that lopsided as the series sweep would indicate. A goal a night from the second line (or the third line chipping in) could have been the difference in the match up.

Another thing about recent SC teams (Pens and Hawks), both were loaded with talent because they sucked and drew great picks in strong years. In a salary cap era where talent is better disbursed, its going to be harder to see those kind of teams emerge. Teams like Detroit who have been consistent are more likely to get there versus a flash team that has to dump players at the end of the year. Case in point, its possible the Hawks could miss the playoffs entirely still.

So while I appreciate the fact that the leagues best players have been their teams top scorers, I think its more representative of special skill sets and a team that shot its wad in a single year (Hawks). I think we have an honest shot at getting to the Cup this year BECAUSE other teams wont be able to focus on one line. Remember our third line centre played for the US in the Olympics. Thats a pretty good third line.

If we can fix the PK, I like our chances.

And ......... how about that Patrick Marleau. I bet he's good in the P/O's this year.

obligatory hat tip to the thread.

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03-30-2011, 01:38 PM
  #202
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Originally Posted by WineShark View Post
It's a fair point to say you want your best players to be your best players in the playoffs. But the reality is hockey, more than any other team sport, is a team sport. A great player on a unbalanced team will have a real problem scoring because you need soldiers in the trenches; people to go to that hard places and retrieve the puck. It's a little like a rookie QB that was the #1 pick on a crap NFL team. No matter how good (think John Elway) is, he's not going to single-handedly get the team into the playoffs.
True, but if the best players don't produce, you're not going to win either.

To bring it closer to home....no, Joe Montana/Steve Young and Jerry Rice weren't able to win Super Bowls all by themselves. The 49ers lost in years when the offensive line or the defense were inadequate. But the 49ers didn't win all those titles with their top players posting subpar performances, either. Bubba Paris and Randy Cross could've had their best games as football players ever.....if Montana throws 170 yards, 0 TD's, 3 Int's......the 49ers lose.

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In the case of the Sharks prior to Thornton coming, team's focused on our top line. Shut that down and the team would go nowhere.
For that team, I think that's an effective argument. The top line playing well alone wasn't enough. Smart to add a second scoring line to try to compliment that top line's production.

But since Thornton's arrival, the top line has been invisible more often than not. We're now getting quality production out of our second line.....so now more than ever we need a top line that can complement or take advantage of that.

The supplemental pieces all seem to be there now.....if the top line plays like it can or should, there could be no stopping them. The problem is that word "if." If the Sharks lost more often *despite* the fantastic production of the top line, I'd be less critical. But that has not been the case for much of the past 5 postseasons. We are a quality top line performance away from the Cup.....of course, so are about a dozen other teams.

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Originally Posted by WineShark View Post
Last year we saw the benefit of two lines going, and we got pretty deep. We had a shot. And while I agree you can't blame your third liners, often times in the SC Finals, its some lower line player that makes the difference.
And I agree with you there, too, but the Sharks aren't one goal away from the Cup. They're about 20-30 or so, at least. Ben Eager might get one or two at key moments.....but you also need guys who can score enough to get you to those key moments.

When the 2nd/3rd liners haven't come through with enough production, we've traded them away and replaced them with new faces in an attempt to find ones who can. When our all-star 1st liners haven't come through, we've extended their contracts and given them raises, and blamed the 2nd liners for not coming through with all-star 1st line performances.

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03-30-2011, 02:19 PM
  #203
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Originally Posted by WineShark View Post
What many forget is the series against the Hawks wasn't that lopsided as the series sweep would indicate. A goal a night from the second line (or the third line chipping in) could have been the difference in the match up.
Well, two goals per game at least, anyway (one to tie, one to go ahead).

Which comes back to my point......exempting Marleau (who did at least come through in the second half of that playoff run), the Sharks needed an extra 2 goals per game from.....someone. Anyone. Doesn't matter who it is, but they need SOMEBODY to score those 2 goals.

3 minutes left in the game, desperately needing a goal to tie (and a second goal to win), who do you put out on the ice? Who are seemingly the most likely candidates to give you the best chance of scoring and tying/winning the game? Do you put out Joe Thornton and Dany Heatley, or do you go with Scott Nichol and Devin Setoguchi (though, ironically, the latter pair actually did combine for more goals in last year's playoffs)?

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Originally Posted by WineShark View Post
I think we have an honest shot at getting to the Cup this year BECAUSE other teams wont be able to focus on one line. Remember our third line centre played for the US in the Olympics. Thats a pretty good third line.
What you say will work only if the 1st line also produces.

This also goes back a bit to what you were saying about the 2004 playoff run. If the Sharks get 15 goals over the first two rounds from their second line and only 2 goals from the top line, that's really no different than the Sharks getting 15 goals from the top line and only 2 goals from the second line. At some point, the Sharks most talented players need to come through and they do need BOTH top lines to produce. The second line has been doing its part.....will the top line?

Quote:
And ......... how about that Patrick Marleau. I bet he's good in the P/O's this year.
I hope so. And I'm a little more bolstered by the fact that, in addition to Marleau who has shown himself capable of dominating in the playoffs, we also now have guys like Pavelski and Couture who could now themselves maybe both be PPG guys in the playoffs.

Again, the Sharks need to have 2-3 or more top notch performances from somebody. It doesn't HAVE to come from the players with the most supposed talent.......but that would seem to be the most obviously desirable source. If they get that, the Sharks will win or at least have a very good shot. If they get zero top notch performances in the postseason from their most talented players, they will lose....no matter what Jason Demers does.

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03-30-2011, 02:30 PM
  #204
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Delete.

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03-30-2011, 02:33 PM
  #205
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Originally Posted by SJGoalie32 View Post

Which comes back to my point......exempting Marleau (who did at least come through in the second half of that playoff run), the Sharks needed an extra 2 goals per game from.....someone. Anyone. Doesn't matter who it is, but they need SOMEBODY to score those 2 goals.
You could also say that Nabby needed to stop a goal here or there or the D needed to step up. I just showed that the PPG difference was not that big for the top 4. I'll do the top 6.

Top 4 PO PPG

Blackhawks - .79 - PO - 1.07 Difference +.13 PPG
Redwings - .77 - PO - 1.18 Difference +.24 PPG

Sharks - .97 - PO - .94

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03-30-2011, 02:48 PM
  #206
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Originally Posted by Led Zappa View Post
You could also say that Nabby needed to stop a goal here or there or the D needed to step up. I just showed that the PPG difference was not that big for the top 4. I'll do the top 6.

Top 4 PO PPG

Blackhawks - .79 - PO - 1.07 Difference +.13 PPG
Redwings - .77 - PO - 1.18 Difference +.24 PPG

Sharks - .97 - PO - .94
I am not critiquing the effort on your part, but the sample is small. If you go back over several years, the differentials aren't always so large to the positive for the winners. The Mule is THE playoff beast, above all others in the league for stepping up over several years. Over time, an excellent playoff player is just about dead even with reg. season production or a couple of percentage points above. The year-to-year on most veteran players on dropoffs is fairly consistent. IMO, the Sharks need some young ones who are on an uptick to overcome past shortcomings. JT will also be interesting to see if he can maintain reg. season production with the severe dropoff for this season.


FTR, the other guy had Boyle and Pavs as the only two who have raised production from reg. season to playoffs. Clowe was a slight downtick. Seto and Marleau had a little more downtick than Clowe. JT and Vlasic were way down. Heatley was in Clowe territory but has that dramatic shift from goals to assists. Marleau has the reverse shift from assists to goals.

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03-30-2011, 03:03 PM
  #207
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@easy - I only took 2 SC winners and our last year as we need to at least match/best that and we should. Other wise it's a failure.

Top 6 Numbers


Top 4 PO PPG

Blackhawks - .79 - PO - 1.07 Difference From Sharks +.13 PPG
Redwings - .77 - PO - 1.18 Difference From Sharks +.24 PPG
Sharks - .97 - PO - .94

Top 6 PO PPG

Blackhawks - .75 - PO - .95 Difference From Sharks +.11 PPG
Redwings - .73 - PO - .1.02 Difference From Sharks +.18 PPG

Sharks - .85 - PO .84

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03-30-2011, 05:28 PM
  #208
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Wait, so does that mean Hawks/Wings have better stats than in the reg season?

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03-30-2011, 05:34 PM
  #209
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Wait, so does that mean Hawks/Wings have better stats than in the reg season?
Going by their top 6 PO scoring players. Some players had better regular season numbers, but didn't perform as well in the PO's. I would have to do a lot more for a top 12 and that gets dicey with injuries, acquisitions etc... Where do you stop.

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03-30-2011, 05:38 PM
  #210
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Wait, so does that mean Hawks/Wings have better stats than in the reg season?

I know, crazy to think that a team's best players actually play BETTER in the playoffs.

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03-30-2011, 06:34 PM
  #211
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Originally Posted by Led Zappa View Post
Going by their top 6 PO scoring players. Some players had better regular season numbers, but didn't perform as well in the PO's. I would have to do a lot more for a top 12 and that gets dicey with injuries, acquisitions etc... Where do you stop.
Because of injuries, you do points/game. Save the headache. On acquisitions, you do points/game only with the acquiring team.

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03-30-2011, 06:40 PM
  #212
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Because of injuries, you do points/game. Save the headache. On acquisitions, you do points/game only with the acquiring team.
That doesn't take into account of a lot of variables. Time to heal. Are they fully healed. How quickly does an acquisition fit in. How long does it take to find the right line for them etc... PPG only tell you so much and this just adds to the variables. It is the best we got, besides our eyes, but it's still imperfect.

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03-30-2011, 06:45 PM
  #213
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Originally Posted by Led Zappa View Post
That doesn't take into account of a lot of variables. Time to heal. Are they fully healed. How quickly does an acquisition fit in. How long does it take to find the right line for them etc... PPG only tell you so much and this just adds to the variables. It is the best we got, besides our eyes, but it's still imperfect.
You know I agree. I have noted in the past that major acquisitions usually take a partial or full season to integrate and the expectation of an acquired player should always be a little bit less than what he was doing on his previous team. The good acquisitions tend to return to level the following year.

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03-30-2011, 08:25 PM
  #214
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Originally Posted by Led Zappa View Post
You could also say that Nabby needed to stop a goal here or there or the D needed to step up.
I could say that, many have already said that.....and now Nabby is gone for his failures. Replaced by someone who played worse than he did in the postseason despite being behind a stronger defense last postseason.

Be that as it may....yes Nabby could've played better, and so could the D, and so could the lower line players. I don't dispute any of that. It takes a team to win, and there were certainly more than one hole in each of those losing efforts.

But with so many early round flameouts, I try to look at the overall picture to see what the problem has been. If the Sharks were consistently losing 4-3 and 6-4, then yeah, I'd have been screaming for better defense and goaltending. If the Sharks had been losing a bunch of games 3-2 where the top guys are doing everything and are getting no support (as in 2004), then I'd be screaming for more depth.

But the Sharks rarely score more than 2 goals in a game, and the Sharks top players have rarely (or at least sporadically) been at the forefront of that scoring. Thornton and Heatley were a combined zero goals, 10 assists, and -13 in 10 playoff games last year against teams not named the Red Wings. That's pitiful.

In order to improve, one must have the realistic ability to improve. I don't see how much more improvement one could reasonably realistically ask out of Pavelski. Mitchell?.....His ceiling is only so high in the first place. Goaltending? Maybe, but hard to require a sub-1.00 GAA from any goaltender, ever.

But JT and Heater (and Marleau before Game 4 against Detroit)?.......LOTS of room for improvement there, even before you get to realistic expectations.

If the Big 3 go nuclear this postseason and they get zero help out of anybody else while Niemi turns into a sieve.....I will blame everybody else and blame the goaltending. If the Big 3 disappear while everybody else tries but ultimately fails to make up for their absence from the scoring sheet, yet again.....I'm not blaming Jamal Mayers.....not even Niclas Wallin (fun though it may be).

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03-31-2011, 01:03 PM
  #215
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Originally Posted by SJGoalie32 View Post
I could say that, many have already said that.....and now Nabby is gone for his failures. Replaced by someone who played worse than he did in the postseason despite being behind a stronger defense last postseason.

Be that as it may....yes Nabby could've played better, and so could the D, and so could the lower line players. I don't dispute any of that. It takes a team to win, and there were certainly more than one hole in each of those losing efforts.

But with so many early round flameouts, I try to look at the overall picture to see what the problem has been. If the Sharks were consistently losing 4-3 and 6-4, then yeah, I'd have been screaming for better defense and goaltending. If the Sharks had been losing a bunch of games 3-2 where the top guys are doing everything and are getting no support (as in 2004), then I'd be screaming for more depth.

But the Sharks rarely score more than 2 goals in a game, and the Sharks top players have rarely (or at least sporadically) been at the forefront of that scoring. Thornton and Heatley were a combined zero goals, 10 assists, and -13 in 10 playoff games last year against teams not named the Red Wings. That's pitiful.

In order to improve, one must have the realistic ability to improve. I don't see how much more improvement one could reasonably realistically ask out of Pavelski. Mitchell?.....His ceiling is only so high in the first place. Goaltending? Maybe, but hard to require a sub-1.00 GAA from any goaltender, ever.

But JT and Heater (and Marleau before Game 4 against Detroit)?.......LOTS of room for improvement there, even before you get to realistic expectations.

If the Big 3 go nuclear this postseason and they get zero help out of anybody else while Niemi turns into a sieve.....I will blame everybody else and blame the goaltending. If the Big 3 disappear while everybody else tries but ultimately fails to make up for their absence from the scoring sheet, yet again.....I'm not blaming Jamal Mayers.....not even Niclas Wallin (fun though it may be).
What I haven't looked at statistically, is the +/- of the top lines of opposing teams. If our top line doesn't score the same or more as the other teams top line, its going to be hard to win - I would expect. But if our top line scores none and stalemates with the other teams top line, thats where team depth comes in to win a series.

Thats once again why I like our chances. I don't think Jumbo has to be a point a game scorer in the P/O, as long as he does what he has been doing in the regular season with puck retrieval, winning draws, getting takeaways backchecking, and playing solid defense. Thats a change from past years when he didn't play defense like he is now. If he can just stop the opposing team from scoring, even if he doesn't score we are OK with the depth we have. That said, its not going to surprise me to see him have a good playoff for the first time really. He's working his ass off.

I'm guessing our third line is going to be the big +/- advantage for the team this time around.

And to stay on topic..... how about that Patrick Marleau. What a guy. I appreciate him.

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03-31-2011, 01:22 PM
  #216
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Originally Posted by SJGoalie32 View Post
I could say that, many have already said that.....and now Nabby is gone for his failures. Replaced by someone who played worse than he did in the postseason despite being behind a stronger defense last postseason.

Be that as it may....yes Nabby could've played better, and so could the D, and so could the lower line players. I don't dispute any of that. It takes a team to win, and there were certainly more than one hole in each of those losing efforts.

But with so many early round flameouts, I try to look at the overall picture to see what the problem has been. If the Sharks were consistently losing 4-3 and 6-4, then yeah, I'd have been screaming for better defense and goaltending. If the Sharks had been losing a bunch of games 3-2 where the top guys are doing everything and are getting no support (as in 2004), then I'd be screaming for more depth.

But the Sharks rarely score more than 2 goals in a game, and the Sharks top players have rarely (or at least sporadically) been at the forefront of that scoring. Thornton and Heatley were a combined zero goals, 10 assists, and -13 in 10 playoff games last year against teams not named the Red Wings. That's pitiful.

In order to improve, one must have the realistic ability to improve. I don't see how much more improvement one could reasonably realistically ask out of Pavelski. Mitchell?.....His ceiling is only so high in the first place. Goaltending? Maybe, but hard to require a sub-1.00 GAA from any goaltender, ever.

But JT and Heater (and Marleau before Game 4 against Detroit)?.......LOTS of room for improvement there, even before you get to realistic expectations.

If the Big 3 go nuclear this postseason and they get zero help out of anybody else while Niemi turns into a sieve.....I will blame everybody else and blame the goaltending. If the Big 3 disappear while everybody else tries but ultimately fails to make up for their absence from the scoring sheet, yet again.....I'm not blaming Jamal Mayers.....not even Niclas Wallin (fun though it may be).
From going over the post season dropoffs and their consistency, I'll give you the candidates for improvement. Couture and Seto; improvement generally comes from the young. Patty can have something along the lines of a better year but similar to previous playoffs. I doubt that Heater, Vlasic or JT improve on previous playoff numbers. There is a little room for Clowe. And we all need to pray that Pavs can match last year. They also have Demers and Braun if the coaches are willing to use them significantly.

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04-01-2011, 02:04 AM
  #217
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Patty's 12 shots on goal were apparently a franchise record.

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04-01-2011, 02:08 AM
  #218
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Two players that I want on breakaways: Couture and Marleau

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04-01-2011, 03:39 AM
  #219
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Two players that I want on breakaways: Couture and Marleau
Interestingly enough, I think patty is much better on in-game breakaways than shootouts. Most elite shooters are I think, but Patty to an extreme. I think it's linked to the "play by instinct and skill" vs. "think too much" issue he constantly deals with.

At his level of play right now, I'd take Patty in the top 5-10 forwards in the league.

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04-01-2011, 08:31 AM
  #220
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Interestingly enough, I think patty is much better on in-game breakaways than shootouts. Most elite shooters are I think, but Patty to an extreme. I think it's linked to the "play by instinct and skill" vs. "think too much" issue he constantly deals with.

At his level of play right now, I'd take Patty in the top 5-10 forwards in the league.
I completely agree. He's always money on breakaways, but I cringe to see him in the shootout. He is a very instinctual player. Or maybe he just ****s with your mind.

And as far as his current play, there is almost no one in the league that is better than Patty when he's on, as Joe so astutely pointed out. He really seems to have a whole other level that he can't control when it appears.

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01-27-2013, 04:28 AM
  #221
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Time to dig this Out....

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01-27-2013, 10:24 AM
  #222
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01-27-2013, 05:16 PM
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Jinx thread.

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01-27-2013, 05:20 PM
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Quick someone bash Marleau!

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01-27-2013, 05:46 PM
  #225
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Did he get traded???

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