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Old
12-30-2010, 09:48 AM
  #76
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lazerbullet View Post
Drafting depth is nice, but you need cornerstone players. And time is ticking slowly. We better hope that 1-2 of the drafted prospects will be good enough to replace Datsyuk and Zetterberg, when those two slow down.
I really, really think those 1-2 will come from the group of Tatar, Pulkkinen and Järnkrok.

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12-30-2010, 12:07 PM
  #77
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I think it's wrong to debate european vs NA- drafting over last 15 years. With new CBA, and only 2 years to sign an european player, Red Wings focus shifted to NA, actually to NCAA.
As for 90ies, the bigger busts were Russians - Kuznetsov, Golubovskiy, Butsaev. Maybe because of that they don't draft russians anymore.

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Grigorenko is not a 100% bad luck. He would be still in the NHL, if he was as driven as Datsyuk.
maybe Konstantinov wasn't bad luck either, he wasn't just driven enough.

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12-30-2010, 12:58 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by DoMakc View Post
maybe Konstantinov wasn't bad luck either, he wasn't just driven enough.
I think he was driven one too many times.

(Still probably too soon)

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12-30-2010, 01:14 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by DoMakc View Post

maybe Konstantinov wasn't bad luck either, he wasn't just driven enough.
You are comparing Konstantinov to Grigorenko?
Okay. Both had very hard accidents. One can still barely walk and the other one got healthy and is a good player in the KHL.

Grigorenko lacks work-ethic. He always had this problem and still has. Accident or not, but he came totally out of shape into our camp. This was his chance to play in the NHL and how he used it?
Accident is an unfortunate thing, but he was healthy enough to make our team.

If you want to compare Grigorenko with somebody, compare him with Slava Kozlov, who had similar path.

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12-30-2010, 01:32 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Henkka View Post
I really, really think those 1-2 will come from the group of Tatar, Pulkkinen and Järnkrok.
Oh yeah, I have my hopes with these guys also. You can add also Mursak, who looks to be very determined and might improve each year, just like D and Z.

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12-30-2010, 03:09 PM
  #81
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Don't say that Grigorenko has no drive


How the **** would you react if you got in a horrible car accident and had to put a piece of metal in your leg as the bone was too messed up...I would say he has incredible motivation or "drive" to be playing professionally at all after what happened to him

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12-30-2010, 03:53 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by irishtemper View Post
Don't say that Grigorenko has no drive


How the **** would you react if you got in a horrible car accident and had to put a piece of metal in your leg as the bone was too messed up...I would say he has incredible motivation or "drive" to be playing professionally at all after what happened to him
Where I said he has no drive? I said, that if he had the same drive as Datsyuk, he would be in the NHL. That's two different things.

Yes, Igor had motivation to get healthy, play professional hockey and make good money. Good example for everyone. But he didn't have motivation to get his butt in proper shape to play in the best league in the world. That's the point.

Overall, some of you are really overrating him. He wasn't even THAT good before his accident. Sure... a very promising prospect, but not a sure-fire superstar like many people have claimed over the years.

Again, look at Slava Kozlov. His accident wasn't exactly pretty also, but he made it and had a very good career despite of it. Igor had similar chances and it's shown by his current play in the KHL, which is very good. So it's not like the guy is in wheelchair and can't play.

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Old
12-30-2010, 04:01 PM
  #83
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I love these sort of discussions, they are always interesting.

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Originally Posted by Mr Bugg View Post
I think the North American "failures" stand out more because the Wings tend to invest their highest pick on such players. In the case of the third to seventh rounds, it's easy to celebrate a draft pick's accomplishments because most don't turn out. However, a first round pick faces greater scrutiny and higher expectations- and rightly so.
I think the Wings look at their early picks differently than other teams. The general consensus seem to think you should draft the high-end/skilled players early and the role players/grinders later in the draft. To me it seems like the Wings use a different strategy for drafting players. Instead of drafting the players with the highest potential early, they draft the safe players with potential to be alot more.

Think about it in terms of fantasy hockey draft. Who do you pick first, Lidstrom or Doughty. Do you draft the guy that is going into his 3rd season after putting up 59 points in his 2nd season and has sky high potential, or do you draft the guy who consistently has put up 50 points almost every year during his first 18 seasons. If you want to draft the player with the highest potential, you would draft Doughty. If you wanted to make a "safe" draft pick, you would pick the player that could still contribute if they were to have a bad season, with the potential to be great if they were to have a good season. Lidstrom has shown that even during his worst seasons he still can put up almost 50 points while a young player like Doughty is only 2 years removed from a 27 point season.

So when drafting early on, should a team be looking for the players with the highest upside, or the least downside, or a combination of the 2. The Wings have shown they prefer to draft a least 1 player with small downside before taking a homerun pick. The Wings have said they gauge the success of a draft year by looking to see if they drafted 1 or 2 NHLers, not by how good the NHLers turn out to be.

The Red Wings have the privledge of having a great scouting staff in Europe that can pluck gems in the later rounds which allows the Wings to go about this. I like the methodology.

(sorry if its confusing, I had to rush a bit)

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Old
12-30-2010, 04:24 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by lazerbullet View Post
Where I said he has no drive? I said, that if he had the same drive as Datsyuk, he would be in the NHL. That's two different things.

Yes, Igor had motivation to get healthy, play professional hockey and make good money. Good example for everyone. But he didn't have motivation to get his butt in proper shape to play in the best league in the world. That's the point.

Overall, some of you are really overrating him. He wasn't even THAT good before his accident. Sure... a very promising prospect, but not a sure-fire superstar like many people have claimed over the years.

Again, look at Slava Kozlov. His accident wasn't exactly pretty also, but he made it and had a very good career despite of it. Igor had similar chances and it's shown by his current play in the KHL, which is very good. So it's not like the guy is in wheelchair and can't play.

This is pure ignorance.
All car crashes aren't the same. You don't know anything about how hard "the road back" was for Grigorenko. You're just making a pretty ignorant claim that since Kozlov made it back from a car crash, then Grigorenko would too, if he showed the same effort.

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12-30-2010, 04:43 PM
  #85
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This is pure ignorance.
All car crashes aren't the same. You don't know anything about how hard "the road back" was for Grigorenko. You're just making a pretty ignorant claim that since Kozlov made it back from a car crash, then Grigorenko would too, if he showed the same effort.
Grigorenko had 22 goals and 36 points in 55 games last year. He has 17 goals and 29 points in 32 games this season.

I would argue that he could play in the NHL right now. He has recovered pretty well. It's not like the guy can't play.

Just his "NHL career" was 1. come to the camp being out of shape (numerous reports clearly state this) 2. I'm not making enough money in the AHL. 3. I will go back to Russia, because I'm getting more paid and I don't have to learn a new language.

It's all facts. Hell... when Grigorenko went back to Russia, his Russian coach wondered what the hell Detroit's coaching staff did that he was in such a bad shape.

Anyway... I'm not going to argue with people who have saw him play once or twice.

Bottom line, Grigorenko pick is not 100% bad luck (a great amount, but not totally).

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12-30-2010, 05:02 PM
  #86
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I would argue that he could play in the NHL right now. He has recovered pretty well. It's not like the guy can't play.
Putting up points in the KHL does not equate to being able to successfully play in the NHL. It's really a different game.

The speed and tempo of the NHL is a different beast all together. No league in the world is comparable.

I'm glad that Grigorenko has been able to find success in the KHL after what his career has been through, but i doubt he has the wheels to play at the NHL level anymore.

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12-30-2010, 05:04 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by grsbmd View Post
I think he was driven one too many times.

(Still probably too soon)
touché

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Old
12-30-2010, 08:26 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by r0bert8841 View Post
I think the Wings look at their early picks differently than other teams. The general consensus seem to think you should draft the high-end/skilled players early and the role players/grinders later in the draft. To me it seems like the Wings use a different strategy for drafting players. Instead of drafting the players with the highest potential early, they draft the safe players with potential to be alot more.
This is an excellent observation, and sums up my thoughts on their NA approach. That, and valuing NCAA prospects higher both because of their extended development time and delayed ELC.

Quote:
So when drafting early on, should a team be looking for the players with the highest upside, or the least downside, or a combination of the 2. The Wings have shown they prefer to draft a least 1 player with small downside before taking a homerun pick.
The "least downside" or "safest pick" approach is what kills most NHL teams at the draft table. That strategy is the reason why fans of other teams (including myself) look with equal parts jealousy and awe upon what Hakan Andersson does seemingly every year, and why I threw my remote at the TV when I heard the Oilers select a 6'3 enforcer in the 3rd round over Cody Eakin in 2009.

I understand why the Wings would do it this way- as you say, they take their "sure things" first and their home-run shots later. But almost without exception, Andersson's picks are out-performing the safe ones. Even the pro scouting staff is out-performing the NA birddogs (more on that below). I think it's pertinent we look at why that is, and why the rest of the scouting staff does not emulate that approach in every country.

The biggest complaint I hear from folks I argue this with is that you have to mix it up a bit, lest you end up with a pipeline full of offensive dynamos but nothing else. Ignoring the fact that two of the more physical Red Wings- Kronwall and Franzen- were Andersson picks, I must ask: why is this bad?

History shows that enforcers and other bottom-six types can be found everywhere. Look at your own team- Cleary, Eaves, Draper and Miller were all drafted and developed by other teams and acquired for pennies on the dollar once the hard work was done. Modano and Bertuzzi were savvy vets who every other team felt were past their expiration dates.

It's staggering, really:

Holmstrom (Andersson) Datsyuk (Andersson) Franzen (Andersson)
Bertuzzi (FA) Zetterberg (Andersson) Cleary (FA)
Abdelkader (NA pick) Filppula (Andersson) Hudler (?)
Miller (Waivers) Eaves (FA) Helm (NA pick)

I'm not saying the North American scouting staff sucks. I'm not criticizing any individual pick. But the above clearly demonstrates that of the three major talent procurement areas- NA scouting, Euro scouting, pro scouting- one of them is well behind. If the best your amateur scouts can do is find a Darren Helm and a Justin Abdelkader with the number of bullets they're given, someone needs to think about things differently.

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Old
12-30-2010, 11:55 PM
  #89
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Originally Posted by Mr Bugg View Post
If the best your amateur scouts can do is find a Darren Helm and a Justin Abdelkader with the number of bullets they're given, someone needs to think about things differently.

Ferraro, Sheehan, McCollum and Emmerton ...

On the other hand, Howard does appear to be at least a so-so NHL starter. And Brendan Smith appears to have some serious upside.

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12-31-2010, 12:19 AM
  #90
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I see what your saying. I really don't know why the Wings choose to keep it safe more in NA. It is possible that the Red Wings feel that all they only need their North American scouts to create a couple of NHLers each year to fill out the line-up while the European scouts can pluck out the players with high end potential.

While alot of the NA draft picks don't have elite potential, alot of them have the potential to be more than just bottom 6 forwards. Justin Abdelkader has power forward potential. He was a safe pick because his he has little downside, but he still has the potential to be more. Its not like the Wings are drafting players with little to no offensive potential, they are just sacrificing some of that potential for a little extra security.

Looking at the Wings draft history, it really seems like they started to draft safe NA players in early rounds was around the lockout. Another big difference you can see around the lockout is the number of draft picks the Wings have. Instead of having 10-12 draft picks each year, the Wings now have 5-8 picks. This could possibly play a role in an increased amount of safe picks. Before the lockout, the Wings might have felt that if they attempt home run picks 10 times each draft, at least 1 or 2 will work out each year (which is exactly what happened). Now, with much fewer picks, they may feel they need to make safer picks in order to ensure at least 1 NHLer out of each draft.

So the real question is why is it so important to get at least 1 or 2 NHLer out of each draft. My guess is the ELCs. While the Wings have been able to get some good players out of the bargain bin, most players are overpaid in free agency and the Wings want none of that. The Wings can't rely too much on free agency because their aren't any gurantees on what the market will be like and who will be available. I recall hearing the Wings mention a few times how important having young players on cheap contracts is in the cap era. Before the cap, the Wings could spend money to fill out their lineup in free agency, but in the cap world, it is important that the lineup is filled out with cheap young players to maximize the amount of depth on the team.

Another advantage I see to drafting safe is to ensure that their will always be viable options in the minors that can fill in when the Wings are going threw injuries. It is always important to have options like Helm, Abdelkader, Meech, and Ericsson in the minors instead of resorting to Janik, Newberry, Haydar, and Williams when your team is going through injury problems in the playoffs.

So the Wings feel that in the salary cap era it is important to have young cheap home grown players on ELCs and viable options in the minors and as a result the Wings have tried to make at least 1 safe draft pick before going for home runs. While the Wings could be taking more risks with their North American draft picks, they would rather give themselves more options when it comes to depth. Their are no gurantees when it comes to free agency, and the Wings will be prepared if they don't find what they are looking for. If the Wings do find what they are looking for at the right price, they can stache their kids in the minors for depth during injuries. I don't think the Wings are looking at prospects like fans do, while fans are always hoping for the best possible players, the Wings draft the players they feel will put themselves in the best position to win. A big part of that is creating a good amount of depth in the minors, and if the Wings go for fewer home runs and more safe picks, their will a much better chance of alot of depth. I am sure the Wings are thankful that Hakaan is able to work his magic with the minimal amount of picks we have been giving him lately, because this gives the Wings more draft picks to use on safer players.


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12-31-2010, 12:44 AM
  #91
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Originally Posted by r0bert8841 View Post
I see what your saying. I really don't know why the Wings choose to keep it safe more in NA. It is possible that the Red Wings feel that all they only need their North American scouts to create a couple of NHLers each year to fill out the line-up while the European scouts can pluck out the players with high end potential.

While alot of the NA draft picks don't have elite potential, alot of them have the potential to be more than just bottom 6 forwards. Justin Abdelkader has power forward potential. He was a safe pick because his he has little downside, but he still has the potential to be more. Its not like the Wings are drafting players with little to no offensive potential, they are just sacrificing some of that potential for a little extra security.

Looking at the Wings draft history, it really seems like they started to draft safe NA players in early rounds was around the lockout. Another big difference you can see around the lockout is the number of draft picks the Wings have. Instead of having 10-12 draft picks each year, the Wings now have 5-8 picks. This could possibly play a role in an increased amount of safe picks. Before the lockout, the Wings might have felt that if they attempt home run picks 10 times each draft, at least 1 or 2 will work out each year (which is exactly what happened). Now, with much fewer picks, they may feel they need to make safer picks in order to ensure at least 1 NHLer out of each draft.

So the real question is why is it so important to get at least 1 or 2 NHLer out of each draft. My guess is the ELCs. While the Wings have been able to get some good players out of the bargain bin, most players are overpaid in free agency and the Wings want none of that. The Wings can't rely too much on free agency because their aren't any gurantees on what the market will be like and who will be available. I recall hearing the Wings mention a few times how important having young players on cheap contracts is in the cap era. Before the cap, the Wings could spend money to fill out their lineup in free agency, but in the cap world, it is important that the lineup is filled out with cheap young players to maximize the amount of depth on the team.

Another advantage I see to drafting safe is to ensure that their will always be viable options in the minors that can fill in when the Wings are going threw injuries. It is always important to have options like Helm, Abdelkader, Meech, and Ericsson in the minors instead of resorting to Janik, Newberry, Haydar, and Williams when your team is going through injury problems in the playoffs.

So the Wings feel that in the salary cap era it is important to have young cheap home grown players on ELCs and viable options in the minors and as a result the Wings have tried to make at least 1 safe draft pick before going for home runs. While the Wings could be taking more risks with their North American draft picks, they would rather give themselves more options when it comes to depth. Their are no gurantees when it comes to free agency, and the Wings will be prepared if they don't find what they are looking for. If the Wings do find what they are looking for at the right price, they can stache their kids in the minors for depth during injuries. I don't think the Wings are looking at prospects like fans do, while fans are always hoping for the best possible players, the Wings draft the players they feel will put themselves in the best position to win. A big part of that is creating a good amount of depth in the minors, and if the Wings go for fewer home runs and more safe picks, their will a much better chance of alot of depth. I am sure the Wings are thankful that Hakaan is able to work his magic with the minimal amount of picks we have been giving him lately, because this gives the Wings more draft picks to use on safer players.
How do you know they're intending to have 'safe' players when they pick them? Maybe they see them as players with legitimately high upside but they fail to even get near it?

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12-31-2010, 12:57 AM
  #92
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Quote:
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How do you know they're intending to have 'safe' players when they pick them? Maybe they see them as players with legitimately high upside but they fail to even get near it?
When I refer to safe picks I am refering to players with the least amount of downside. It doesn't tell you much about the upside of the player. A safe pick can have little upside, or alot of upside, as long as their is little downside. I often refer to N Americans as safe picks because they don't have as many random factors as european players (adapting to NA hockey, whether or not they will come over, etc...). This is the one reason I believe we drafted McCollum over Markstrom despite H. Andersson recommendation.

A good example of a safe pick by the Wings is Franzen (despite the fact he was European). A 23 year old draft pick who is big and can play good D, with some offensive potential. He doesn't have very much downside, while still having a good amount of upside. (His scouting report is really similar to Sheahan's, although Sheahan is 5 years younger and North American).


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12-31-2010, 01:18 AM
  #93
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How do you know they're intending to have 'safe' players when they pick them? Maybe they see them as players with legitimately high upside but they fail to even get near it?
I think Robert's idea is unlikely.
I guarantee they didn't draft Ferraro to be safe. Same with Sheehan. Or McCullom.

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12-31-2010, 05:24 AM
  #94
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This is the one reason I believe we drafted McCollum over Markstrom despite H. Andersson recommendation.
Has this actually gone on record as fact? Did this happen?

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12-31-2010, 10:39 AM
  #95
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Good Posts Mr Bugg. I agree with what you're saying.

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12-31-2010, 10:42 AM
  #96
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double post


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12-31-2010, 01:07 PM
  #97
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Quote:
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Has this actually gone on record as fact? Did this happen?
I remember hearing it somewhere, lol, not the best source.

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12-31-2010, 01:09 PM
  #98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bob View Post
I think Robert's idea is unlikely.
I guarantee they didn't draft Ferraro to be safe. Same with Sheehan. Or McCullom.
You think they drafted them because they wer BPA? I guess thats a possibility. But why not draft a talented Russian instead?

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12-31-2010, 01:12 PM
  #99
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Originally Posted by r0bert8841 View Post
You think they drafted them because they wer BPA? I guess thats a possibility. But why not draft a talented Russian instead?
I believe Detroit did go on record saying that Sheahan was in their top 5 list for the draft in terms of BPA, However, with the Ferraro draft I remember someone saying that they took Ferraro before Tatar, even though they ranked Tatar higher, because they had a strong feeling Tatar would be available at 60, but not Ferraro

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12-31-2010, 01:15 PM
  #100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jussha View Post
I believe Detroit did go on record saying that Sheahan was in their top 5 list for the draft in terms of BPA, However, with the Ferraro draft I remember someone saying that they took Ferraro before Tatar, even though they ranked Tatar higher, because they had a strong feeling Tatar would be available at 60, but not Ferraro
I believe Detroit said Sheahan was in their top 5 before the season started, which is 10 months before the draft.

And with Ferraro, I personally believe it was his bloodlines.

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