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Old
12-20-2010, 11:03 PM
  #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CloutierForVezina View Post
Or you can choose to match those numbers up to the games player by our best defensive defenseman last year.

Luongo really missed Mitchell in the last half of last year.
Good point. I'm sure he wont start as many games in January as well considering it's a really busy month.

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Old
12-20-2010, 11:13 PM
  #52
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I think the average goaltender curve throughout the season is applicable here.

Ryan "Best Goalie in the Whole-wide World" Miller

11-10-3
2.51
0.915
2

Roberto Luongo
16-8-2
2.40
0.914
2

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Old
12-20-2010, 11:33 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by xtr3m View Post
Here's Luongo last season.

October____6-6-0 2.79 .902 1
November__4-3-0 2.23 .921 0
December__10-3-1 1.92 .932 1
January____9-2-1 2.37 .922 1
February___2-3-0 2.70 .915 1
March_____7-4-1 2.99 .902 0
April_______2-1-1 4.13 .867 0

The lead up to April and the eventual crash is pretty depressing.

And goalies are better at penalty shots. Teams can select their best snipers for shootouts, not so much with penalty shots.
Pretty much the 14-game road trip and Olympic hangover killed Luongo last year. He even admitted after the Olympics that he had a hard time re-focusing. It was clearly the focal point of his season. I don't think we'll see that happen again this year, but I guess that's why they play the games.

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Old
12-21-2010, 03:02 AM
  #54
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Luongo has now played 4 games in a row where for the most part he's been excellent. He didn't have to make many saves tonight but a lot of them were fairly difficult. He's looking a lot more in control of his game.

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Old
12-21-2010, 03:19 AM
  #55
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He and the Canucks' defense have looked quite good for the last month or so. 17 GA in his last 10 games and 2 or fewer GA in 8 of those 10. It's no surprise that the team's 9-1-0 in his that span.

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Old
12-21-2010, 03:34 AM
  #56
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While luongo was shaky for the first 10 games or so, he has been really good for the last while.

Way more composed and in control. Keep it up.

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12-21-2010, 03:36 AM
  #57
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Do you guys think Luongo has a good shot at winning the vezina this year?

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12-21-2010, 03:50 AM
  #58
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Do you guys think Luongo has a good shot at winning the vezina this year?
If he keeps it to a goal or two and the team wins the Presidents... yes.

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Old
12-21-2010, 04:19 AM
  #59
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Do you guys think Luongo has a good shot at winning the vezina this year?
No. Not even close and I'm a fan. Tim Thomas, even if he plays average the rest of the season, will end up with numbers as good as Miller had last season — if he plays well but not as well as now, he'll have Hasek-like numbers and if he plays like he's playing right now we just might witness the best goaltending performance ever.

The fact that his Sv% is still .948 after 23 games is nothing short of amazing.

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Old
12-21-2010, 04:24 AM
  #60
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I think part of Lu's strong play of late has been his ability to stay focused through periods of inactivity. he sometimes seems to lose his focus when he doesn't face a shot for half a period etc. this recent stretch has seen him come up with big reflex saves against the flow of play. maybe an adjustment made with the new coach, or maybe just being "in the zone".

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12-21-2010, 04:30 AM
  #61
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Originally Posted by alternate View Post
I think part of Lu's strong play of late has been his ability to stay focused through periods of inactivity. he sometimes seems to lose his focus when he doesn't face a shot for half a period etc. this recent stretch has seen him come up with big reflex saves against the flow of play. maybe an adjustment made with the new coach, or maybe just being "in the zone".
Having a goaltending coach around certainly helps. AV doesn't seem like the kind of coach that knows what kind of drills Luongo needs and when. Some of those drills they've showed him working with Melanson were targeted specifically on his weaknesses.

---

Also, on the topic of having a goaltending coach, he's finally learning to handle the puck and he's getting better and better at it. It's amazing that Ian Clark didn't have Luongo work on it, I always thought he was just incapable of learning to do it properly but I guess that's not the case.

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Old
12-21-2010, 12:16 PM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnShorthouse View Post
Do you guys think Luongo has a good shot at winning the vezina this year?
Lots of hockey left to be played so it would be dependant on the 2nd half of the season, but at this point I don't think he'd even enter into the discussion. There's quite a few goalies who are having stellar seasons thus far, Thomas chief among them.

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12-21-2010, 12:21 PM
  #63
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Yeah, currently the top 3 have to be Thomas, Pavelec and Price. I don't see all three crashing and burning, so that's a lot for Luongo to outplay. At this point, Luongo won't even be nominated.

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Old
12-21-2010, 12:45 PM
  #64
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If LA lets in 4 goals tonight, the Canucks will have the least goals against in the Western Conference..just an interesting tidbit.

1. LA: GA 75
2. Van: GA 78
3. Nash: GA 79

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Old
12-21-2010, 01:13 PM
  #65
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Originally Posted by CloutierForVezina View Post
Luongo is now 3rd in the NHL in wins. He's also 15th in GAA but only 0.02 outside of 10th.
The first is clearly a team stat and the 2nd has as much to do with the team's defensive play as it does the goaltender.

His GAA is down because he's fronted by an elite team that is among the very best in the league. In the last 10 games the Canucks have averaged just 24.2 shots against.

Luongo sits at a mediocre 16th in Sv% among goalies that have started 19 or more games. The top 3 in this key goalie stat (Thomas, Pavelec, Price) all face more shots per game than Luongo and yet make far less than he does.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CloutierForVezina View Post
That just highlights how sensitive goalie stats are. If he goes and lets in a single goal in his next start, he'll be in 9th for GAA. If the entire team gets blown out by Detroit and he lets in 6, he'll drop down to 19th.
Not really, the stats you list are team stats as much as they are goalie stats, for the reasons noted. His Sv% is the key one.


Last edited by Eukaryote: 12-21-2010 at 01:25 PM.
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Old
12-21-2010, 01:21 PM
  #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnShorthouse View Post
Do you guys think Luongo has a good shot at winning the vezina this year?
You forgot the or wink icons because that has to be a joke. Mentioning Luongo as a nominee to Vezina voters would generate nothing but belly laughs. You don't think they aren't aware of his mediocre Sv% as well as his many gaffes and soft goals this year?

Luongo has to really up his game to an elite level for the rest of the year just to catch-up to the leaders. I don't see that happening given his play over the last two years.

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Old
12-21-2010, 01:28 PM
  #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnShorthouse View Post
Do you guys think Luongo has a good shot at winning the vezina this year?
No.

Changing the conversation, what does Luongo need to do to become a Vezina nominee?

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Old
12-21-2010, 01:39 PM
  #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kootenayfan View Post
If LA lets in 4 goals tonight, the Canucks will have the least goals against in the Western Conference..just an interesting tidbit.

1. LA: GA 75
2. Van: GA 78
3. Nash: GA 79
Consider Goals Against per Game but compare them to Goals for per Game that I have put in brackets and the Canucks have a significant edge - note the differentials:

1. Nashville - 2.41 (2.47) - .06
2. LA - 2.42 (2.81) - .39
3. Vancouver - 2.45 (3.23) - .78

And then look at the top Western teams in terms of goals for with goals against bracketed:

1. Colorado - 3.61 (3.18) - .43
2. Detroit - 3.28 (2.72) - .56
3. Vancouver - 3.23 (2.45) - .78

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Old
12-21-2010, 01:57 PM
  #69
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I think the best news of all these stats and figures is the direction they are heading in.

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Old
12-21-2010, 02:02 PM
  #70
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Originally Posted by Eukaryote View Post
You forgot the or wink icons because that has to be a joke. Mentioning Luongo as a nominee to Vezina voters would generate nothing but belly laughs. You don't think they aren't aware of his mediocre Sv% as well as his many gaffes and soft goals this year?

Luongo has to really up his game to an elite level for the rest of the year just to catch-up to the leaders. I don't see that happening given his play over the last two years.
The last time Luongo was a Vezina nominee he did it with 47 wins, 2.29 GAA, and a .921 save %.

If he plays the next 10 games like he's play his last 10 games, he will basically be right on pace to match those numbers.

I agree a this point it's more unlikely then likely, but it's hardly a "laughable" scenario.

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Old
12-21-2010, 02:07 PM
  #71
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Originally Posted by Eukaryote View Post
The first is clearly a team stat and the 2nd has as much to do with the team's defensive play as it does the goaltender.

His GAA is down because he's fronted by an elite team that is among the very best in the league. In the last 10 games the Canucks have averaged just 24.2 shots against.

Luongo sits at a mediocre 16th in Sv% among goalies that have started 19 or more games. The top 3 in this key goalie stat (Thomas, Pavelec, Price) all face more shots per game than Luongo and yet make far less than he does.

Not really, the stats you list are team stats as much as they are goalie stats, for the reasons noted. His Sv% is the key one.
You don't think Save % has anything to do with the team in front of you? It makes about as much -- if not more -- difference than a ballpark and team's defense makes to a pitcher's ERA. There's a reason they have park-adjusted statistics for hitters and pitchers in baseball.

Hockey is just a harder sport to create precise metrics for that sort of information. Regardless, the sample size you're dealing with here is ludicrously small, and you continue to cherry pick goaltenders to compare him to.

Finally, the Canucks were not elite during the first quarter of the season. It's only in the past eleven games that they've turned it on and started to play better even strength hockey. In the past 10 games Luongo has started he has a Save % of .930 and he's 9-1 with a miniscule GAA. What else do you want? If the team plays well in front of him, he will look better. This stretch even includes a fairly pedestrian four goals on twenty shots against the Ducks.

Luongo was up and down to start the year, as he often is, but is rounding into form. If he manages to string together a four or five more good games, his numbers will look like they always do. I also expect many of the outliers at the top of the statistical mountain to come back down to earth as the season progresses.

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Old
12-21-2010, 02:16 PM
  #72
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
No. Not even close and I'm a fan. Tim Thomas, even if he plays average the rest of the season, will end up with numbers as good as Miller had last season if he plays well but not as well as now, he'll have Hasek-like numbers and if he plays like he's playing right now we just might witness the best goaltending performance ever.

The fact that his Sv% is still .948 after 23 games is nothing short of amazing.
Just to put this into perspective:

Ondrej Pavelec has a 1.82GAA and a .943SVP in 23 games this season, and no one even knows about it.

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Old
12-21-2010, 02:16 PM
  #73
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All goalie stats are a team stat as much as the goalie only stat...

You can't write off good stats as a team stat and the not so good stat as a goalie stat, it's not correct at all. Who's to say a goalie only has 20 shots that are on net but they are all excellent scoring chances. Of all the stats I care about the most it would be GAA that shows a lot more then save percentage(or at least it shows it in relation to save percentage).

For instance: Look at that game where he had 11 shots against but had one go in...his save percentage was only around 0.91 but he had zero chance on that shot with players crashing into the net. An easily skewed stat.

Needless to say he has been excellant lately.

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Old
12-21-2010, 02:18 PM
  #74
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Luongo is the most scrutinized goalie in the NHL and people who criticize him simply don't watch enough other goalies. He is an elite goalie who lets no more "bad" goals than any other elite netminder. He had had a good start to a season and seems to be getting stronger and stronger.

As I have said many times about Vancouver fans, you didn't appreciate what you had in the Sedins (many of you) and many don't appreciate what you have in Luongo.

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Old
12-21-2010, 02:36 PM
  #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eukaryote View Post
You forgot the or wink icons because that has to be a joke. Mentioning Luongo as a nominee to Vezina voters would generate nothing but belly laughs. You don't think they aren't aware of his mediocre Sv% as well as his many gaffes and soft goals this year?

Luongo has to really up his game to an elite level for the rest of the year just to catch-up to the leaders. I don't see that happening given his play over the last two years.
that was actually a legitimate question. Its not far fetched to think luongo can be nominated as he gets used to his new style and shows a little more consistency. He's got a solid D in front of him and his GAA will eventually go down as well as his save %. We had a strong november and now december. I think Luu is going to go ape ***** in the second half and win it.

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