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Old
12-21-2010, 01:38 PM
  #76
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Originally Posted by Pauser View Post
Just to put this into perspective:

Ondrej Pavelec has a 1.82GAA and a .943SVP in 23 games this season, and no one even knows about it.
Actually the fans of Leafs Nation do - they even presented him with a number of waffles last night at the ACC when the Thrashers beat the Leafs.

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12-21-2010, 02:06 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by Potatoe1 View Post
The last time Luongo was a Vezina nominee he did it with 47 wins, 2.29 GAA, and a .921 save %.
If he plays the next 10 games like he's play his last 10 games, he will basically be right on pace to match those numbers.
That would give him a Sv% of about 0.918 and it wouldn't be nearly good enough this year.

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I agree a this point it's more unlikely then likely, but it's hardly a "laughable" scenario.
At this stage it certainly is.

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12-21-2010, 02:18 PM
  #78
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Actually nevermind, I suck at multitasking.

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12-21-2010, 02:19 PM
  #79
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I don't think you can count Luongo out of the Vezina race this early; not saying he'd win it today, but he probably has around 40 starts left in the season and a lot can happen during that many games.

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12-21-2010, 02:21 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Proto View Post
You don't think Save % has anything to do with the team in front of you?
The effect is nothing compared to GAA and especially wins. Sv% is the key goalie stat, it's the one that goalies have by far the most control over. Luongo is himself a case in point. The year he was nominated in FLA it was based on his 0.931 Sv% that he achieved despite facing a huge number of shots against and playing for a bottom feeder team.
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It makes about as much -- if not more -- difference than a ballpark and team's defense makes to a pitcher's ERA. There's a reason they have park-adjusted statistics for hitters and pitchers in baseball.
Comparisons to baseball makes no sense. The two games and situations couldn't be more different.

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Hockey is just a harder sport to create precise metrics for that sort of information. Regardless, the sample size you're dealing with here is ludicrously small, and you continue to cherry pick goaltenders to compare him to.
The sample size is just fine to make the inference. And the assertion of cherry picking is absurd. It's his fans that are cherry picking. Luongo's Sv% is mediocre and his performance over the last two seasons has not been close to the expectation given his payscale.

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Luongo was up and down to start the year, as he often is, but is rounding into form. If he manages to string together a four or five more good games, his numbers will look like they always do. I also expect many of the outliers at the top of the statistical mountain to come back down to earth as the season progresses.
What are you talking about? He was middle of the pack last year.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/stats/by..._2009&sort=112

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Old
12-21-2010, 02:35 PM
  #81
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Luongo is the most scrutinized goalie in the NHL and people who criticize him simply don't watch enough other goalies.
He's the highest paid player in the league with a 12 year contract that's played at a mediocre level for two seasons now and he's had dreadful playoff meltdowns. The criticism of Luongo is more than justified. BTW, I watch all the goalies and follow their stats. Maybe you should try that.
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He is an elite goalie who lets no more "bad" goals than any other elite netminder.
Elite? based on what, exactly, besides wishful thinking of course.

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12-21-2010, 02:48 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by Eukaryote View Post
He's the highest paid player in the league with a 12 year contract that's played at a mediocre level for two seasons now and he's had dreadful playoff meltdowns. The criticism of Luongo is more than justified. BTW, I watch all the goalies and follow their stats. Maybe you should try that.

Elite? based on what, exactly, besides wishful thinking of course.
You would agree that Luongo has been "elite" in the past, correct? There is nothing to stop him from regaining his form of old. If the defense in front of him solidifies it should help him regain "elite" status. Personally, I couldn't care less if he's in the top 5 of GAA or Sv% as long as I don't have a personal feeling of dread everytime he's between the pipes because I'm not sure if "Good Luongo" or "Bad Luongo" is going to show up...basically I'm just hoping for a more consistent Luongo, and he's starting to give me that now. I just hope it continues.

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Old
12-21-2010, 03:03 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by Eukaryote View Post
That would give him a Sv% of about 0.918 and it wouldn't be nearly good enough this year.

You honestly think .918 is drastically different then .921?

You really think all the crazy save percentages we are seeing so far this year will last?

Since the lock out the Veizna nominees typically fall between .920 and .930, this year likely won't be that much different.

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Old
12-21-2010, 03:35 PM
  #84
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The first is clearly a team stat and the 2nd has as much to do with the team's defensive play as it does the goaltender.

His GAA is down because he's fronted by an elite team that is among the very best in the league. In the last 10 games the Canucks have averaged just 24.2 shots against.

Luongo sits at a mediocre 16th in Sv% among goalies that have started 19 or more games. The top 3 in this key goalie stat (Thomas, Pavelec, Price) all face more shots per game than Luongo and yet make far less than he does.

Not really, the stats you list are team stats as much as they are goalie stats, for the reasons noted. His Sv% is the key one.
Disagree with pretty much everything you said.

Lundqvist got a Vezina nomination in 2007-2008 with a .912 sv%. That is despite being a worse-than-mediocre 19th in sv% to finish the season. In fact, the only stats he did well in were the team stats you so quickly dismiss - Wins (4th) and GAA (6th).

In fact, Lundqvist - who is widely considered one of the very best goalies in the world (and from a sample size larger than 1 year) - has had the following finishes in league-wide sv% since the lockout: 4th, 10th, 19th, 12th, 8th. It's amazing that people who actually watch the game can come to a different conclusion than your rock solid analysis of a single "key goalie stat".

You're significantly overvaluing sv% and undervaluing how much it can fluctuate with team style. Sv% completely fails to take into account the quality of shots allowed. A defensive breakdown leading to a 2-on-0 where the goalie has to be all-world just to make the stop counts the same as a strong defense allowing a weak shot from the point with no traffic in front.

And that's not even getting into how ridiculous it is to brush aside GAA as clearly a team stat. You only have to look somewhere like Montreal last year where Price had a 2.77 GAA over 39 games and Halak had a 2.40 GAA over 43 games. Or to Boston this year where Thomas has a 1.70 GAA over 20 games and Rask has a 2.57 GAA over 10 games. That sample size too small for you? How about last year where Rask had a 1.97 GAA over 39 games and Thomas had a 2.56 GAA over 43 games.

And this isn't even comparing scrub backups to legit elite goaltenders. This is starting goalie versus starting goalie playing for the same team in the same year over a sample size of 40 games each.


Last edited by CloutierForVezina: 12-21-2010 at 03:41 PM.
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Old
12-21-2010, 03:51 PM
  #85
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Luongos doing pretty good. The game against the Leafs and Blues,Luongo could have had a shootout. Steens goal in my opinion was a weak one,this one was due to the defencemen,literally let Steen walk in and flip a backhander past Luongo. The Grabvoskis goal should have been a simple glove save. Two easy shootout games missed by Luongo. He'll get them eventually regardless though,somehow.

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Old
12-21-2010, 03:52 PM
  #86
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why don't we save these threads for when Luongo is slumping at least?

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Old
12-21-2010, 03:56 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by Daryl View Post
Luongos doing pretty good. The game against the Leafs and Blues,Luongo could have had a shootout. Steens goal in my opinion was a weak one,this one was due to the defencemen,literally let Steen walk in and flip a backhander past Luongo. The Grabvoskis goal should have been a simple glove save. Two easy shootout games missed by Luongo. He'll get them eventually regardless though,somehow.
They could have been "shootout" games if he had let in another goal, but they also could have been "shutouts" if he hadn't let in the softies.

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Old
12-21-2010, 04:03 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by CloutierForVezina View Post

In fact, Lundqvist - who is widely considered one of the very best goalies in the world (and from a sample size larger than 1 year) - has had the following finishes in league-wide sv% since the lockout: 4th, 10th, 19th, 12th, 8th. It's amazing that people who actually watch the game can come to a different conclusion than your rock solid analysis of a single "key goalie stat".
Just to add to this, here's a stretch during Brodeur's prime years and his ranking in the "key goalie stat":

98-99: 22nd
99-00: 16th
00-01: 22nd
01-02: 23rd
02-03: 15th
03-04: 15th

Of course he won 2 Vezinas and 2 Stanley cups in there, but I guess since his sv% wasn't top 10, he was just a scrub. Good thing his "team stats" were good.

And that doesn't even take into account the fact that he had the benefit of Niedermayer, Stevens, and Rafalski patrolling the blue line in front of him.

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Old
12-21-2010, 04:28 PM
  #89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
Just to add to this, here's a stretch during Brodeur's prime years and his ranking in the "key goalie stat":

98-99: 22nd
99-00: 16th
00-01: 22nd
01-02: 23rd
02-03: 15th
03-04: 15th

Of course he won 2 Vezinas and 2 Stanley cups in there, but I guess since his sv% wasn't top 10, he was just a scrub. Good thing his "team stats" were good.

And that doesn't even take into account the fact that he had the benefit of Niedermayer, Stevens, and Rafalski patrolling the blue line in front of him.
I came here to post this. I think Brodeur's overrated, but that's another argument for another time.

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Old
12-21-2010, 04:31 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by Canucker View Post
You would agree that Luongo has been "elite" in the past, correct? There is nothing to stop him from regaining his form of old. If the defense in front of him solidifies it should help him regain "elite" status. Personally, I couldn't care less if he's in the top 5 of GAA or Sv% as long as I don't have a personal feeling of dread everytime he's between the pipes because I'm not sure if "Good Luongo" or "Bad Luongo" is going to show up...basically I'm just hoping for a more consistent Luongo, and he's starting to give me that now. I just hope it continues.
That's your own problem to sort out because he's been as consistent as just about any goalie in the league this year.

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12-21-2010, 04:34 PM
  #91
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That's your own problem to sort out because he's been as consistent as just about any goalie in the league this year.
If you say so.

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12-21-2010, 04:34 PM
  #92
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If you say so.
He's had two bad games all season. That's pretty damn consistent.

And look at the Canucks record when he gets a lead. Its impeccable.

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12-21-2010, 04:37 PM
  #93
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All in all, Luongo's missed a lot of deserved shutouts. An argument and counter argument can be made for all, but:

October 9 vs LA (Williams scores with 4 minutes left, Luongo played great all night minus Shootout)

October 11 vs FLA (Made 40+ saves but gets a horrible bounce of Edler's skate)

December 12 vs EDM (Eberle scores with 5 seconds left)

December 18 vs TOR (Made 2 or 3 great saves, 27 in total, but fanned on a fairly routine shot)

December 20 vs STL (Defence caught sleeping for 10 seconds, Luongo hung out to dry)

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Old
12-21-2010, 05:09 PM
  #94
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Originally Posted by Daryl View Post
Luongos doing pretty good. The game against the Leafs and Blues,Luongo could have had a shootout. Steens goal in my opinion was a weak one,this one was due to the defencemen,literally let Steen walk in and flip a backhander past Luongo. The Grabvoskis goal should have been a simple glove save. Two easy shootout games missed by Luongo. He'll get them eventually regardless though,somehow.
I agree he wiffed on the save on Grabvoski...however, I disagree that the steen goal was easy. Steen was moving across the front of the net with the keystoning canucks all over the place...I would be surprised if loungo even saw it.

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12-21-2010, 05:24 PM
  #95
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Originally Posted by VanEric View Post
He's had two bad games all season. That's pretty damn consistent.

And look at the Canucks record when he gets a lead. Its impeccable.
When your team is sporting a 19-8-4 record it's hard to be too critical of anyone. Luongo may not have had too many "stinker" games but his play earlier on was fairly erratic, it may not have cost us any games but it didn't do a lot to help any arguements that he's in the "elite" class of goalies.

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12-21-2010, 05:26 PM
  #96
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Originally Posted by rune74 View Post
I agree he wiffed on the save on Grabvoski...however, I disagree that the steen goal was easy. Steen was moving across the front of the net with the keystoning canucks all over the place...I would be surprised if loungo even saw it.
Plus the placement of backhand shots are notoriously hard to pick up off the stick.

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12-21-2010, 05:26 PM
  #97
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Originally Posted by Canucker View Post
When your team is sporting a 19-8-4 record it's hard to be too critical of anyone. Luongo may not have had too many "stinker" games but his play earlier on was fairly erratic, it may not have cost us any games but it didn't do a lot to help any arguements that he's in the "elite" class of goalies.
Meaningless arbitrary labels. The results are there. The only reason his win/loss record was shoddy to start the year was a complete lack of offensive support in his losses.

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12-21-2010, 05:31 PM
  #98
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Meaningless arbitrary labels. The results are there. The only reason his win/loss record was shoddy to start the year was a complete lack of offensive support in his losses.
We'll have to agree to disagree there, I don't feel Luongo's game was up to snuff early on. I'm happy he's playing better now and hope it continues.

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12-21-2010, 05:34 PM
  #99
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We'll have to agree to disagree there, I don't feel Luongo's game was up to snuff early on. I'm happy he's playing better now and hope it continues.
That's what happens when you base things on your feelings instead of the actual results of the games.

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12-21-2010, 05:37 PM
  #100
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That's what happens when you base things on your feelings instead of the actual results of the games.
Or when you actually watch the games compared to remembering them with rose colored glasses.

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