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Part XVII: Phoenix -- This Thread Title Available For Lease

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Old
12-22-2010, 03:44 AM
  #101
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So ignore Goldwater's requests for documentation and then assume they won't sue based on the belief they are bluffing. Sounds like a great plan.
The city can't ignore Goldwater. They are already under a court order from over a year ago, but are not oblidged to release documents unless they are complete. As has been noted in several posts from different people the docs aren't complete.

If Goldwater thought the CoG were truly stonewalling them they could take them back to court now..... but they haven't. They already tried to force it once and lost... and had to pay CoG's legal expenses.

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12-22-2010, 03:58 AM
  #102
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I think they will if the lease is not altered to their satisfaction. Heck, they took Glendale to court over failure to release documents about the sale negotiations. If they don't follow up now, it will be hard to see them as being relevant in the future.

They only got a partial win in that, Whileee. The judge in the case did make Glendale turn over documents, but had to keep the majority of them under her custody because of the BK. I honestly don't remember if any or all of them have been released since. That was at least 25 threads ago.

And as I mentioned above they also tried forcing Glendale at one other point (IIRC it was a contempt charge) and ended up paying CoG's legal team for their troubles.

Up to this point... Goldwater's biggest success in this affair has been media exposure.

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12-22-2010, 08:59 AM
  #103
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an hour of my life i'll never get back but here ya go...


Now that put a smile on my face, brilliant is right

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12-22-2010, 09:35 AM
  #104
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They only got a partial win in that, Whileee. The judge in the case did make Glendale turn over documents, but had to keep the majority of them under her custody because of the BK. I honestly don't remember if any or all of them have been released since. That was at least 25 threads ago.

And as I mentioned above they also tried forcing Glendale at one other point (IIRC it was a contempt charge) and ended up paying CoG's legal team for their troubles.

Up to this point... Goldwater's biggest success in this affair has been media exposure.

This is why I posted sayign I dont think they will sue...
Even if they do I really doubt anything will come from it.

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12-22-2010, 09:58 AM
  #105
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an hour of my life i'll never get back but here ya go...




Dude, that was awesome. You are my favorite.

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12-22-2010, 10:00 AM
  #106
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Up to this point... Goldwater's biggest success in this affair has been media exposure.
I disagree, the lack of media coverage in Phoenix is reason for me to believe they are serious about this. Based on this issue alone, more people in Canada know about GWI then in Arizona.

I think there are much bigger issues that would garner them much more media attention then this issue, if that was their motivating factor.

Whether you agree or disagree with Glendale's actions in the sale of the Coyote's I still think there are too many unknowns right now to let this deal go unchallenged.

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12-22-2010, 10:00 AM
  #107
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I just don't see the Goldwater "gangstas" suing. They have their hands full with other more pressing issues like mandatory healthcare and immigration reform. They like to stay in the public eye, so they will put out some statements, but this is not the kind of case I believe they will go after. GI understands that if the deal tanks, it will throw the CoG into a real fix, and the backlash could be substantial. I think a lot of people are pissed off at GI over the CityNorth case, as some would contend (wrongly IMO) that GI had a hand in that project tanking as a result of all the litigation that surrounded it.

At the end of the day, the GI is about looking good even more so than public policy. I could be wrong, but I just don't see the GI suing here in what is very likely a deal that has been structured by some very good lawyers to not violate the Gift Clause.

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12-22-2010, 10:52 AM
  #108
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The balance sheet means nothing. It is debt serviceability that matters based on revenues. I do not know what accounting policies they use in Arizona for municipalities or what makes up the 21 billion; however, many assets owned by municipalities are not available to fund on going operations.


After seeing you last post, assessed value means even less when it comes to this deal. I took a quick look at the financial statements and the COG looks like they only have around 800 million invested in capital assets. This is the amount neted against the related debt for all their capital assets.
yes, cash is king. their current liabilities are going to jump a great deal too.

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The original question was: "Isn't CoG already in massive debt? I would just wonder what their current credit worthiness is?" The Moody's report presented an opinion on the answer to that question.




The original poster made an assertion that he suspected the COGs credit rating likely will be downgraded eventually anyway, without giving any reasons. Now we know your opinion as to why. All I was looking for.
The comment about the downgrade was only based on gut. My thoughts:

* CoG is already dealing with budget deficits excluding this lease. The lease will increase their outlays by about $23 mm p.a. ($17 mm for the fees as well as say $6 mm for the debt service).
* they are already using borrowed funds to service the debt on camelback ranch and do not have a plan for $16 mm of the associated debt maturing in 2016
* while they may have a tax base of $21 bn, they have already commented that they would not raise tax to pay for the yotes. it was also noted in the moody's report you posted that "Although Glendale's overall debt burden has moderated from peak levels in fiscal 2003, when overall debt measured 7.1% of full value, it remains fairly high at
5.6% and well in excess of national medians for all cities of 2.5%
"
* there will be a wave of downgrades of state and local govt's over the next few years. as witnessed in the RMBS and CDO fiasco, may issuers will get caught up in the wave. this will also cause dislocations in the muni market, which is where they'd have to go to refinance their debt.
* while all the discussion of state and local finances is starting to hit the mainstream media, a bigger issue is probably the reset of commercial mortgages in 2011 and 2012 (commercial mortgages only run 5 years). there currnetly is not a market for those 2006 and 2007 mortgages to refinance into, and there will be a significant amount of defaults as a result. this will hit property values again.


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Actually, they could do zero coupon bonds or low interest coupons and sell the bonds at a discount, thus decreasing their annual debt servicing cash flow by pushing it to the end of the term so in 30 years, those who inherit the mess get screwed.

The basic thing is they need to raise $100 mil and if they do that by issuing $500 mil of zero coupon bonds, then so be it. MH is a hedge fund guy so he knows all the ins and outs of this crap.
Council only approved a $125 mm issue, so they don't have much wiggle room to raise the $100 mm.

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Actually, that just shows payments and interest amounts, it does not mean they work the way you think. For example, the bonds that were used to pay the construction have several different lengths of maturities thus causing principal payments in some years. You would have to look at the actual bond issue itself to determine what if any principal is being paid down as part of any payments being made. The bonds may have had no principal payments the first 20 years then graduated principal payments.
Yes, that was actually where I was going with my original statement. I didn't expect them to be callable since that would actually increase their cost.

I was responding to a question regarding aggregate interest paid on the issue. Having some of the issue mature after 20 years instead of all of it at 30 years will decrease the total interest paid over the life of the issue since a) Interest will not be paid from the 21st to 30th year, and b) the rate paid on the 20 year bonds would likely be less than the 30 year bonds.

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Old
12-22-2010, 11:49 AM
  #109
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I disagree, the lack of media coverage in Phoenix is reason for me to believe they are serious about this. Based on this issue alone, more people in Canada know about GWI then in Arizona.

I think there are much bigger issues that would garner them much more media attention then this issue, if that was their motivating factor.

Whether you agree or disagree with Glendale's actions in the sale of the Coyote's I still think there are too many unknowns right now to let this deal go unchallenged.
Respectfully, I seriously doubt the good people of Canada know more about the GI than the people of Arizona. Especially since the GI is a home grown thinktank with considerable influence that far exceeds the Coyotes ownership controversy. I don't think the local media fails one bit in covering any statement made by the GI. The fact is, there has been nothing for the GI to do or say since their last beatdown from the court over the City's disclosure obligations.

I think there will be much fanfair after the City meets with the GI, and the GI will sabre rattle that they continue to look closely at this and other type of public/private deals. The fact of the matter is, however, that this is not the time or climate for the GI to flex its muscles and try to defeat projects. Everyone is concerned about debt and taxes, but Arizona still is pretty conservative on those fronts generally, and the real challenge is to move forward which will require at least a temporary environment where the government works with private investors to stop the continuing slide and move things forward for the state.

The situation presents good PR opportunities for the GI, but I just don't see this as a case that the GI will champion, IMO.

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Old
12-22-2010, 11:50 AM
  #110
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A few suggestions for the next thread title:

Cotton Field of Dreams
$100,000,000 or Bust
Cotton Fields Forever

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12-22-2010, 11:51 AM
  #111
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I just don't see the Goldwater "gangstas" suing. They have their hands full with other more pressing issues like mandatory healthcare and immigration reform. They like to stay in the public eye, so they will put out some statements, but this is not the kind of case I believe they will go after. GI understands that if the deal tanks, it will throw the CoG into a real fix, and the backlash could be substantial. I think a lot of people are pissed off at GI over the CityNorth case, as some would contend (wrongly IMO) that GI had a hand in that project tanking as a result of all the litigation that surrounded it.

At the end of the day, the GI is about looking good even more so than public policy. I could be wrong, but I just don't see the GI suing here in what is very likely a deal that has been structured by some very good lawyers to not violate the Gift Clause.
interesting and might prove to be a very important piece of the puzzle.....what battles do GWI want to actually win? we know how they posture their public position but internally what is their true mandate and mission.....do they want to be seen as the group that derailed the Yotes and sent them packing? maybe yes maybe no!

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Old
12-22-2010, 12:00 PM
  #112
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interesting and might prove to be a very important piece of the puzzle.....what battles do GWI want to actually win? we know how they posture their public position but internally what is their true mandate and mission.....do they want to be seen as the group that derailed the Yotes and sent them packing? maybe yes maybe no!
I actually know some of the people involved with the GI. They represent a blend of pure idealogs from an extreme Libertarian bent (well beyond were even Barry Goldwater once stood), to some very astute political operatives. Don't get me wrong. They really, really believe in their causes. And, I think they have deep and fundemental problems with this deal. But they do check the wind, so to speak, when deciding what issues they will champion. I think they are stinging a little bit from their CityNorth victory, and don't want to come off as an against everything group. If it is a close call on whether the lease is valid, I definately don't see them getting into this. Even if its not that close a call, I don't see them getting into this issue because the timing is bad, and its sort of a been-there, done-that thing for them. And they have way more sexy issues to litigate.

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Old
12-22-2010, 12:10 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by goyotes View Post
Respectfully, I seriously doubt the good people of Canada know more about the GI than the people of Arizona. Especially since the GI is a home grown thinktank with considerable influence that far exceeds the Coyotes ownership controversy. I don't think the local media fails one bit in covering any statement made by the GI. The fact is, there has been nothing for the GI to do or say since their last beatdown from the court over the City's disclosure obligations.
Canada has the Fraser Institute. They do their best work in the background with secret lobbying. They only come out to the light if day with fixed studies on how any social program is bad for everyone.


http://www.fraserinstitute.org/

We also have the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. They are the watchdogs that bring to light any deals that are unfavorable for the Canadian tax payer. Not a lot of teeth but can really hamper a political campaign if you are on their bad side.

Taxpayer Federattion

As Canadians we are aware of lobby groups and their efforts. The Canadians you see here are more astute as to the ongoings of the GWI.

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Old
12-22-2010, 12:21 PM
  #114
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Canada has the Fraser Institute. They do their best work in the background with secret lobbying. They only come out to the light if day with fixed studies on how any social program is bad for everyone.


http://www.fraserinstitute.org/

We also have the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. They are the watchdogs that bring to light any deals that are unfavorable for the Canadian tax payer. Not a lot of teeth but can really hamper a political campaign if you are on their bad side.

Taxpayer Federattion

As Canadians we are aware of lobby groups and their efforts. The Canadians you see here are more astute as to the ongoings of the GWI.

I think I understand your point. Certainly, those following the Coyote ownership debacle are familar with the GI. My response was to the general statement that even those on this board who are following this little drama do not know as much about the GI as the average Arizonan. The GI is not some shaddow group that stays out of the public eye. They crave the public eye like crack. There is likely not a week that goes bye where they do not have a representative on tv or the radio in Arizona commenting on some public policy issue. And, the public fighting between the GI and Barry Goldwater's wife and children is high drama. Remember, Barry was and likely still is the greatest Arizonan (more so than even McCain). We claim them as our own, in a love-hate thing like AZ1070, Sheriff Joe, and saguaro cactus.

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12-22-2010, 12:23 PM
  #115
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Respectfully, I seriously doubt the good people of Canada know more about the GI than the people of Arizona. .
I didn't say the good people of Canada know more about GI than the good people of Arizona. I said based on this sole issue, meaning, I think this issue has received more publicity in Canada than it has in Arizona.

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12-22-2010, 12:34 PM
  #116
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I just don't see the Goldwater "gangstas" suing. They have their hands full with other more pressing issues like mandatory healthcare and immigration reform. They like to stay in the public eye, so they will put out some statements, but this is not the kind of case I believe they will go after. GI understands that if the deal tanks, it will throw the CoG into a real fix, and the backlash could be substantial. I think a lot of people are pissed off at GI over the CityNorth case, as some would contend (wrongly IMO) that GI had a hand in that project tanking as a result of all the litigation that surrounded it.
With all due respect, the reason they would litigate is that if the deal does go through, it will throw the COG into a real fix. The whole point is to not allow governments to subsidize businesses with taxpayer dollars, which is (a) against the law in Arizona, and (b) exactly what Glendale is doing here. I would think there would be more backlash if GI sat back while Glendale poured $197 million into a loser as it is the most obvious and prominent case of municipal government subsidizing private business in the area in recent history. Especially if (when) the Coyotes inevitably leave town.

It can be easily demonstrated that COG is much better off without the Coyotes if this lease is the only alternative. I have yet to see anyone justify this from the perspective of the COG, outside of a crappy "fact sheet". No posters on here have been able to show any calculation on how this lease and the $197 million is a good investment for Glendale, or the better of the two options.

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At the end of the day, the GI is about looking good even more so than public policy. I could be wrong, but I just don't see the GI suing here in what is very likely a deal that has been structured by some very good lawyers to not violate the Gift Clause.
This is overly optimistic or just plain wishful thinking. I think you give way too much credit to the people who crafted this deal. The CFD was the way to structure a deal to try to avoid the gift clause, and some very good lawyers came up with that idea (that ultimately failed).

Flat out giving a guy $100 million plus $17 million a year in fees for a service worth about 5% of that is not even attempting to get around the gift clause. That's not good lawyering at all, in fact it's shabby lawyering, a last minute scramble in the face of a deadline. They didn't even try to justify it. They didn't even attempt to do any type of analysis to prove it's a good investment for the city. It's like they're spitting on the gift clause, and hoping no one will notice.

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Old
12-22-2010, 12:39 PM
  #117
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They represent a blend of pure idealogs from an extreme Libertarian bent (well beyond where even Barry Goldwater once stood), to some very astute political operatives. I think they have deep and fundamental problems with this deal. If it is a close call on whether the lease is valid, I don't see them getting into this. And they have way more sexy issues to litigate.
This post is exactly what Im' hearing & have been hearing from friends in Phoenix, not only with this deal but so too when IEH's & JR's MOU's hit the fans. Barry Goldwater would not be pleased with this organizations activities & indeed, the heirs to his estate have been less than happy with their shallow, ill-fained public declarations of outrage followed by often over-zealous ill-conceived suits that at best are 50/50's legally, more questions of politic or even general morality than outright breaches of law. Developers & muni's in Arizona live in a world of Grays (the Alien kind too ), having to straddle Constitutional Statutes that in most other states dont exist. Now, Im no lawyer, but I dont think theirs' any case to be made over the $100M parking assignments, however, their could, COULD be a challenge on the Arena Mgmnt Contract, the reasons explained fully by CasualFan amongst others earlier on. Even IF GW challenges, it can be re-worded, re-worked & massaged, ultimately with little change to the outcome, allowing for Goldwater to "claim" victory, pushing their beaks into the process, a war won not in a court but in the media. At best, no matter how one sided, appalling, unfair, manna from heaven for Mathew Hulsizer one thinks this is, Id say its winnable by Glendale & MH. Im also pretty sure Jerry Reinsdorf is not having the Happiest of Holidays. The one that got away. And for sure, Id rather he got this deal (experience), and you know what?. He just might yet.....

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12-22-2010, 12:52 PM
  #118
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This post is exactly what Im' hearing & have been hearing from friends in Phoenix, not only with this deal but so too when IEH's & JR's MOU's hit the fans. Barry Goldwater would not be pleased with this organizations activities & indeed, the heirs to his estate have been less than happy with their shallow, ill-fained public declarations of outrage followed by often over-zealous ill-conceived suits that at best are 50/50's legally, more questions of politic or even general morality than outright breaches of law. Developers & muni's in Arizona live in a world of Grays (the Alien kind too ), having to straddle Constitutional Statutes that in most other states dont exist. Now, Im no lawyer, but I dont think theirs' any case to be made over the $100M parking assignments, however, their could, COULD be a challenge on the Arena Mgmnt Contract, the reasons explained fully by CasualFan amongst others earlier on. Even IF GW challenges, it can be re-worded, re-worked & massaged, ultimately with little change to the outcome, allowing for Goldwater to "claim" victory, pushing their beaks into the process, a war won not in a court but in the media. At best, no matter how one sided, appalling, unfair, manna from heaven for Mathew Hulsizer one thinks this is, Id say its winnable by Glendale & MH. Im also pretty sure Jerry Reinsdorf is not having the Happiest of Holidays. The one that got away. And for sure, Id rather he got this deal (experience), and you know what?. He just might yet.....
I agree, i feel bad for the hockey fans in Manitoba, the residence of Glendale who are against the spending COG money and to the fans of the Coyotes's who would sell there first born to have the NHL team.

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12-22-2010, 12:56 PM
  #119
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I didn't say the good people of Canada know more about GI than the good people of Arizona. I said based on this sole issue, meaning, I think this issue has received more publicity in Canada than it has in Arizona.
I dont think the people of Glendale have a clue whats going on in there own city.....(thanks to there Mayor) never mind what Goldwater stands for.

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12-22-2010, 12:59 PM
  #120
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I think I understand your point. Certainly, those following the Coyote ownership debacle are familar with the GI. My response was to the general statement that even those on this board who are following this little drama do not know as much about the GI as the average Arizonan. The GI is not some shaddow group that stays out of the public eye. They crave the public eye like crack. There is likely not a week that goes bye where they do not have a representative on tv or the radio in Arizona commenting on some public policy issue. And, the public fighting between the GI and Barry Goldwater's wife and children is high drama. Remember, Barry was and likely still is the greatest Arizonan (more so than even McCain). We claim them as our own, in a love-hate thing like AZ1070, Sheriff Joe, and saguaro cactus.
True enough. This is an advantageous situation for the GWI. Since time may be the deal's biggest enemy and injunction could in effect kill the deal. They don't need to be successful in court. they just need to play the de-railer and claim victory as a hero to the taxpayer.

The question is if they can convince a judge to place an injunction. If not then their efforts are moot. They could meet with the COG and say "We want you to change this article and that amount and this calculation" all day. The COG can just tell them to take a hike and do their best.

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12-22-2010, 01:13 PM
  #121
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interesting and might prove to be a very important piece of the puzzle.....what battles do GWI want to actually win? we know how they posture their public position but internally what is their true mandate and mission.....do they want to be seen as the group that derailed the Yotes and sent them packing? maybe yes maybe no!
Quote:
Originally Posted by goyotes View Post
I actually know some of the people involved with the GI. They represent a blend of pure idealogs from an extreme Libertarian bent (well beyond were even Barry Goldwater once stood), to some very astute political operatives. Don't get me wrong. They really, really believe in their causes. And, I think they have deep and fundemental problems with this deal. But they do check the wind, so to speak, when deciding what issues they will champion. I think they are stinging a little bit from their CityNorth victory, and don't want to come off as an against everything group. If it is a close call on whether the lease is valid, I definately don't see them getting into this. Even if its not that close a call, I don't see them getting into this issue because the timing is bad, and its sort of a been-there, done-that thing for them. And they have way more sexy issues to litigate.
I get the feeling that GWI is more focusing on becoming a national right-wing ideological advocacy organization - akin to the Club For Growth - and focusing more on issues with nationwide appeal (Health Care and Immigration) which leads to nation wide fund raising.

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12-22-2010, 01:18 PM
  #122
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Originally Posted by goyotes View Post
I actually know some of the people involved with the GI. They represent a blend of pure idealogs from an extreme Libertarian bent (well beyond were even Barry Goldwater once stood), to some very astute political operatives. Don't get me wrong. They really, really believe in their causes. And, I think they have deep and fundemental problems with this deal. But they do check the wind, so to speak, when deciding what issues they will champion. I think they are stinging a little bit from their CityNorth victory, and don't want to come off as an against everything group. If it is a close call on whether the lease is valid, I definately don't see them getting into this. Even if its not that close a call, I don't see them getting into this issue because the timing is bad, and its sort of a been-there, done-that thing for them. And they have way more sexy issues to litigate.
Media attention is fine, and who knows how seriously they will pursue this. But the last thing a group like this can afford to look like is a paper tiger. If they let this drop, given their avid pursuit over the past year, it will look like they can be easily ignored, or worse, co-opted into supporting deals that involve public subsidy as long as it isn't too egregious. It will be interesting to see what approach they take.

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12-22-2010, 01:22 PM
  #123
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I get the feeling that GWI is more focusing on becoming a national right-wing ideological advocacy organization - akin to the Club For Growth - and focusing more on issues with nationwide appeal (Health Care and Immigration) which leads to nation wide fund raising.
Interesting take. So, if they drop the Glendale deal off their "to-do" list then they would be the "national right-wing ideological advocacy organization" that doesn't really follow through on concerns or threats. I suppose we have enough ideological organizations like that already.

By the way, just to state my own political views on this, I think that Glendale should be able to subsidize the Coyotes directly, if they and their citizens so choose. And I personally oppose the political ideology of the GWI completely.

What I think is reprehensible about Glendale's approach in this is the lack of transparency and outright prevarication about the deal. In that regard, with so much public money involved, the shenanigans by all parties has been nothing short of shameful.

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12-22-2010, 01:41 PM
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kdb209
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Interesting take. So, if they drop the Glendale deal off their "to-do" list then they would be the "national right-wing ideological advocacy organization" that doesn't really follow through on concerns or threats. I suppose we have enough ideological organizations like that already.
Few people outside of AZ - hell, few people inside AZ - know anything about GWI vs CoG.

Many, many, more know that Goldwater is suing in an AZ Federal District court to overturn Obama's Health Care Reform.

Which makes a nicer fund raising appeal letter?

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12-22-2010, 01:54 PM
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an hour of my life i'll never get back but here ya go...


god Peter that is funny....no matter what side of the fence you're in if you can't laugh at this you have lost your sense of humor!!

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