Many thanks to the legendary AOWRanger for the following hilarious video:
Originally Posted by hpNYR
Tonights model runs have been coming west. GFS,NAM,RGEM, GGEM all have come west. The area now anticipated to see a Major storm w/ areas seeing true Blizzard conditions. Some models (Euro,NAM, and GFS) are showing over 60KT winds. Significant to major accumulations anticipated.
Originally Posted by ScottB
My percentages as of now:
50% Chance of some snow. (Trace - 6'')
10% That it completely misses us.
40% That we see a major storm. (6''+)
Originally Posted by ScottB
Quoted for relevance:
"As of right now:
-Looking like a Sunday morning/mid-afternoon start time, that seems to be consistent between the models.
- Light snow will break out from south to north, taking it through early afternoon where the juicier stuff begins to break out.
- Winds will increase dramatically as the day goes on. There's might be a slight breeze as the snow starts, but come afternoon/dusk, winds will be howling and only getting worse.
- By nightfall the heavier precip will come along. The bulk of whatever we get will be from dusk Sunday until early morning Monday.
- The length of the event is still up in the air. Some of the models show the precip out of here by mid morning Monday, with gusty conditions/cold throughout the day on Monday. Others have the system occlude and take a much slower exit, with precipitation running through the afternoon (light).
- Amounts are up in the air, but look at your local forecasts and discussions from NWS. I firmly believe they will up their totals from what they have listed now.
- I cannot stress the fact that if the low is pretty close to the coast and we have a slower feature, we'll be under a very long period of intense winds. (Could be gusts up to 60mph for certain areas of the tri-state) It would not surprise me at all if areas will be under a blizzard watch sometime this afternoon or tonight.
- If the low tracks a bit further west, upstate New York can also see significant snowfall due to having much higher ratios that the coastal/nyc areas.
- Further south, leaning with the same aspect as above, if the low is further west, there could be the possibility of mixing issues for southern coastal NJ/Eastern LI.
- As it is now, south of Jersey, there could also be significant snowfall as well.
- Same goes for North of NYC/CT. NE area could have a very heavy snowfall as well.
I still don't want to pinpoint totals, but it's looking as if the majority of the area (We'll see PHL/TTN/ERW/NYC/LGA/JFK can see anywhere from 6-18 inches of snow, give or take.
Other areas can see just the same amount, further south or north, but I can only speak for what is listed above, as I'm not as familiar with other areas.
Anyway, just my thoughts. Don't take them as set in stone right now, but they are said with a bit more confidence than before."
That's what I posted last night.
For Wash DC? I would say a foot or more isn't out of the realm of possibility. It really depends where the heaviest bands set up, which is hard to predict but gets a bit easier as the storm gets closer.
Thoughts haven't changed, thinking more of a 6/8-18/20 inch forecast for most of the area, with almost everyone getting 12+.
♫ Never mind you're in a snow globe in a dollar store ♫
Last edited by BrianBoyle: 12-25-2010 at 07:13 PM.