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12-29-2010, 08:18 AM
  #1
jadeddog
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the type of player history tells us to expect

as the season rolls along a few things are becoming clear... hall and eberle look like they are going to be great players.... paajarvi looks like he'll be a serviceable 3rd liner at worst... cogliano's remaining time with the team looks limited... etc etc... for a team in 3rd last, it's been a fairly exciting and interesting year, but lets be honest, this is a rebuilding year and many (including myself) have been looking at the 2011 draft as the "end goal" for quite some time

with that in mind, i thought it would be interesting to take a look at the type of player we can expect to draft... i've chose to look at players taken in the 3-5 slots... i think this is a fairly accurate representation of where we are likely to pick... i don't see us finishing below the islanders or devils, but i could see us finishing as high as 26th overall ... 3-5 is a good "ballpark range" at any point

i'm just going to list the players (2000-2006) and give them a "lowetide-ish" ranking of either impact player, good NHL player, regular NHL player, marginal NHL player or non-NHL player (ie. bust)... i'm sure some people will argue about some of my individual rankings, but it will still give us a good overall look at what we can expect... this is going to be very high level analysis, i'm not getting into any statistical analysis of the players.... i'll do those threads at the end of the year, once we know exactly where we are picking... this is really just meant as an early peek at our prospective prospect

2000
marian gaborik - impact NHLer
rotislav klesla - regular NHLer
raffi torres - regular NHLer

2001
alexander svitov - marginal-NHLer
stephen weiss - regular NHLer
stanislav chistov - marginal-NHLer

2002
jay bouwmeester - impact NHLer
joni pitkanen - good NHLer
ryan whitney - good NHLer

2003
nathan horton - good NHLer
nikolay zherdev - regular NHLer
thomas vanek - good NHLer

2004
cam barker - regular NHLer
andrew ladd - regular NHLer
blake wheeler - regular NHLer

2005
jack johnson - good NHLer
benoit pouliot - regular NHLer
carey price - good NHLer

2006
jonathan toews - impact NHLer
nicklas backstrom - impact NHLer
phil kessel - good NHLer

so over 7 drafts and 21 players i have the totals as:
4 impact players (19% chance of impact player, all except one taken 3rd overall)
7 good NHL players (33%)
8 regular NHL players (38%)
2 marginal NHL players (10%)
0 non-NHL player (0%)

although every year is different (as clearly shown in the difference between 2001 and 2006) this still gives us a general idea of what to expect... we should have slightly better than 50/50 odds of landing a good (or better) NHL player in the coming draft

as an aside, i kept track of how i would rank the #2 overall pick for each year and the numbers are: 4 impact, 2 good and 1 regular (with the only regular being a goalie, which are guesses at the best of times)... there is a very noticeable jump from 3 to 2, much moreso than any other single digit move, aside from 2 to 1 of course

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12-29-2010, 12:38 PM
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Meanashell11
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I understand what you are trying to do here but the only thing I see is we are doomed if we pick 3-5 because none of those guys are franchise guys so we have to try harder to suck!

One disagreement, Bouwmeester is not an impact player and I would argue no better than Whitney!

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12-29-2010, 01:05 PM
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Petro Points
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Meanashell11 View Post
I understand what you are trying to do here but the only thing I see is we are doomed if we pick 3-5 because none of those guys are franchise guys so we have to try harder to suck!

One disagreement, Bouwmeester is not an impact player and I would argue no better than Whitney!
if JBo was an Oiler and Whitney a Flame, there is no way you would ever make that comment

I think Larsson will drop out of top 3.. So will Landeskog (after his injury).. RNH may also be available at 3 .. Here is hoping we win the lotto and get what we really need.. The big top line C ..

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12-29-2010, 01:10 PM
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Stoneman89
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Jay Bouwmeester - impact NHLer? Sorry, I stopped reading the rest right there.

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12-29-2010, 01:11 PM
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Master Lok
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Nice jadeddog! Could you extend the list to include the top five picks please? I think there may be a greater chance that the Oilers get a top five pick than a top three pick.

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12-29-2010, 01:15 PM
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Petro Points
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Originally Posted by Master Lok View Post
Nice jadeddog! Could you extend the list to include the top five picks please? I think there may be a greater chance that the Oilers get a top five pick than a top three pick.
his list has picks 3,4,5 of past and not top 3

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12-29-2010, 01:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PenzOil View Post

if JBo was an Oiler and Whitney a Flame, there is no way you would ever make that comment

I think Larsson will drop out of top 3.. So will Landeskog (after his injury).. RNH may also be available at 3 .. Here is hoping we win the lotto and get what we really need.. The big top line C ..
Larsson will go 1 or 2. I take every bet. Landeskog will be Top 4 for sure.
What I would liek to know: If RNH is available at #3, Larsson and Landeskog drop out of Top 3, who will be #2?
Don't say Strome or Murphy.

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12-29-2010, 02:08 PM
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Master Lok
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PenzOil View Post
his list has picks 3,4,5 of past and not top 3
Doh! Sorry about that!

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12-29-2010, 02:23 PM
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I am hoping for landeskog, been compared to Mike Richards by his coach...I am hoping we don't pick a D man unless it is Larsson. D-men take so long to develop.

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12-29-2010, 02:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Stoneman89 View Post
Jay Bouwmeester - impact NHLer? Sorry, I stopped reading the rest right there.

I guess it depends how one wants to define "impact".

But who needs a D that hasn't missed a game since the lockout? And was 6th in minutes played in 05/6, 7th in 06/7, 1st in 07/8, 1st in 08/9, 3rd in 09/10, and 4th (so far) in 10/11?

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12-29-2010, 04:00 PM
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Originally Posted by speeds View Post
I guess it depends how one wants to define "impact".

But who needs a D that hasn't missed a game since the lockout? And was 6th in minutes played in 05/6, 7th in 06/7, 1st in 07/8, 1st in 08/9, 3rd in 09/10, and 4th (so far) in 10/11?
And has never played a playoff game. There's an impact.

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12-29-2010, 04:24 PM
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speeds
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Originally Posted by JonQuixote View Post
And has never played a playoff game. There's an impact.
Stamkos has never played a playoff game. Are you gonna try and tell me he's not an impact player?

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12-29-2010, 04:43 PM
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Fishy Scales
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Originally Posted by speeds View Post
Stamkos has never played a playoff game. Are you gonna try and tell me he's not an impact player?
Is this a serious comment?

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12-29-2010, 04:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Fishy Scales View Post
Is this a serious comment?
Kind of but not really. It is a disingenuous response, to a disingenuous response.

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12-29-2010, 04:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speeds View Post
Kind of but not really. It is a disingenuous response, to a disingenuous response.
I'm with Fishy on this. J-Bo doesn't have any team success, individual success or stats to be deemed a "Impact NHL'er". He's good for sure but impact to me says he's accomplished something, whether it be individual or team wise.

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12-29-2010, 05:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speeds View Post
I guess it depends how one wants to define "impact".

But who needs a D that hasn't missed a game since the lockout? And was 6th in minutes played in 05/6, 7th in 06/7, 1st in 07/8, 1st in 08/9, 3rd in 09/10, and 4th (so far) in 10/11?
Good post to a good thread. Too bad it got derailed so quickly with silliness about Bouwmeester.

But further to that response people have an odd view of what impact player means. Seriously how could anybody question Stamkos being an impact player?

The gauge that people are using in the thread thus far is team based and has nothing at all to do with the individual player.

For instance Jarome Iginla. Never won a Stanley Cup despite being the go to player for years on a reasonable(but not good enough) team. However, put him at the highest level of competition in Team Canada Olympic play(with other good to great players) and he's been an impact player in two Olympics and being a key contributor to his teams victory on both occasions.

Or take a look at Hossa. For years there was a fiction going on that Hossa was not an impact player (defined merely on not winning it all) now people look at him as a key contributor to the Hawks SC W. Hossa didn't change. Happenchance did.

Any number of players may be impact players and key figures in an SC run but to say players are NOT based on their team happenchance thus far is plain bad science.

Some fairly intelligent and usually logical people in the thread making huge deductive errors here. Even the most basic circular tautology.

Or people are defining "impact" all on their own.

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12-29-2010, 05:31 PM
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jadeddog
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i KNEW this thread would end up going down the "player A isn't an impact player" rabbit-hole, which is why i made a point to mention that the individual rankings don't matter very much as far as this thread goes.... some people don't bother to read i suppose, lol

if you think pitkanen should be ranked "good", then change the 4 impact players to 3 in your head, pretty simple no? instead of trying to prove who the better player ranker is, try and comment on the overall point of the thread if at all possible, please and thanks

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12-29-2010, 05:38 PM
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Originally Posted by jadeddog View Post
i KNEW this thread would end up going down the "player A isn't an impact player" rabbit-hole, which is why i made a point to mention that the individual rankings don't matter very much as far as this thread goes.... some people don't bother to read i suppose, lol

if you think pitkanen should be ranked "good", then change the 4 impact players to 3 in your head, pretty simple no? instead of trying to prove who the better player ranker is, try and comment on the overall point of the thread if at all possible, please and thanks
Just as feedback although I think its an interesting discussion and I'm normally a pretty good reader its not immediately evident to me exactly what you are stating with the above. I kind of thought I had the thread figured out but now I'm confused.

Or theres just been too much rum and eggnog under the tree.

Synapses usually aren't firing like normal this week for a lot of people, just saying, and its not completely clear what the OP is looking for.

I'll admit to being confused and looking slow..

For example to make it more clear to the reader number the actual 3-5 picks each year. That way somebody that misinterpreted a few words still gets the thread. Plus I'd have no idea what a "lowetidish" ranking was if it bit me in the ass. Or what you mean by this is going to be a very high level analysis. The OP was confusing as the thread response demonstrates.


Last edited by Replacement: 12-29-2010 at 05:53 PM.
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12-29-2010, 08:34 PM
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JonQuixote
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Originally Posted by speeds View Post
Stamkos has never played a playoff game. Are you gonna try and tell me he's not an impact player?

Wow. ,

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12-29-2010, 08:43 PM
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Petro Points
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Originally Posted by JonQuixote View Post
Wow. ,
There is no need to be dramatic. The guy used Stamkos as an example to a poster calling out Jbo for not playing any playoff games.

Is Hemsky an impact player? was Smyth an impact player? Just because you play on a bad team doesnt mean you are not good. Hossa was good in ATL ,Doan great in PHO .. If we draft a Dman with Jbo's size, speed and poise i'll be laughing.
Hate his contract and the jersey he wears but the guy is good.

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12-29-2010, 08:46 PM
  #21
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Originally Posted by PenzOil View Post
There is no need to be dramatic. The guy used Stamkos as an example to a poster calling out Jbo for not playing any playoff games.

Is Hemsky an impact player? was Smyth an impact player? Just because you play on a bad team doesnt mean you are not good. Hossa was good in ATL ,Doan great in PHO .. If we draft a Dman with Jbo's size, speed and poise i'll be laughing.
Hate his contract and the jersey he wears but the guy is good.
Almost 600 career games without playoffs. I'm pretty sure he didn't even make the playoffs in junior. The only time he's ever been on a playoff team was in the AHL when he was loaned to Chicago and got 0 points.

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12-29-2010, 09:02 PM
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good work, JD. so, what I take from this is: unless we win the lottery, don't get too excited, kiddies. We are probably getting a solid add-on type player like Gagner or Paarjarvi, which doesn't hurt. If he ends an impact player, it will be more luck than anything else (just like Logan Couture may end up an impact player, but who could have known that 4 years ago).

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12-29-2010, 09:33 PM
  #23
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Originally Posted by RustE View Post
good work, JD. so, what I take from this is: unless we win the lottery, don't get too excited, kiddies. We are probably getting a solid add-on type player like Gagner or Paarjarvi, which doesn't hurt. If he ends an impact player, it will be more luck than anything else (just like Logan Couture may end up an impact player, but who could have known that 4 years ago).
I don't think so. 2006 2 franchise players we're in the 3-5 slots. Duchene, Kane and Schenn 3 guys that look like impact players taken 2 years ago just recently. I think historical picks doesn't give any perspectives as to what there is in this years draft. Nice thread but it doesn't mean much.

Oh yeah and Carey Price a good nhler? Guys arguably the top goalie in the league this year. If Bouwmeester a guy whos on pace for 20 points is an impact player than whats price?


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Old
12-30-2010, 08:54 AM
  #24
JonQuixote
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Originally Posted by PenzOil View Post
There is no need to be dramatic. The guy used Stamkos as an example to a poster calling out Jbo for not playing any playoff games.
.
And that's why I said "wow." I don't know about you, but the difference between those two players, the distinguishing factor (or factors) vis a vis the point about Bouwmeester and the playoffs, is quite obvious to me. If it isn't to you or others, if you think thats a credible rebuttal, then "wow" is about as far as I'm willing to go in explaining it.

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12-30-2010, 09:20 AM
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Good post and good thread. Hall and Eberle are sure things.

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