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Why Paul Martin is less important than Gogo (the longest post in forum history?)

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Old
01-07-2011, 09:56 AM
  #26
cassius
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gooch View Post
People here will have a tough time swallowing reality like this. I wasnt a fan at all of the signing of either of the two Dmen we got. I felt they were overpriced for what they are.

Martin's contract is replacing a 70+ point Dman who played in all situations from it, comparing it to that I think it's a big dud of a signing.
Yep - Shero definitely overpaid for Michalek / Martin. My biggest beef with the Martin/Michalek contracts is that it limits us from a winger perspective. Throwing $9M at two stay at home defensemen when you have absolutely no skilled wingers is just silly.

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01-07-2011, 09:57 AM
  #27
Lionel Hutz
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Originally Posted by KIRK View Post
THIS

Still think you'd have to make another move to bring in a solid defenseman, either in the Gogo deal or another deal, because Lovejoy/Englland as a 5/6 . . . ouch.
And if that is necessary, that's an easy move. Every year at the deadline there are several servicible depth defenceman moved for late picks.

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01-07-2011, 10:00 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Champagne Wishes View Post
Again, Martin is so much better offensively than Eaton that this comparison isn't even worth discussing. It's the reason he makes twice as much money.
So the reason why Martin makes $5M is because he puts up 30 points a year instead of Eaton's 15?

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01-07-2011, 10:07 AM
  #29
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Can somebody summarize this in 2 lines? kthnxbye

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01-07-2011, 10:07 AM
  #30
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There aren't enough minutes accumulated to take these stats too seriously. I don't believe there's anything wrong with your work but the sample size isn't large enough to convince me that it's anything meaningful.
Mike Rupp had 10 goals at the same point last season. His pace at that point had him coming close to 20. He only ended up with 13 however.

What you've presented has some meaning but I don't think it's anywhere near the final word. If there's a statistician in the room maybe we can get clarification on how many chances it takes to make a meaningful sample size?

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01-07-2011, 10:09 AM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Illinest View Post
There aren't enough minutes accumulated to take these stats too seriously. I don't believe there's anything wrong with your work but the sample size isn't large enough to convince me that it's anything meaningful.
Mike Rupp had 10 goals at the same point last season. His pace at that point had him coming close to 20. He only ended up with 13 however.

What you've presented has some meaning but I don't think it's anywhere near the final word. If there's a statistician in the room maybe we can get clarification on how many chances it takes to make a meaningful sample size?
I think it's a decent sample size. We're just over halfway through the season - I think it's fair to evaluate players at the halfway mark.

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01-07-2011, 10:18 AM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duck Paddy View Post
Can somebody summarize this in 2 lines? kthnxbye
Some people think Martin is OK but not worth close to $5M.
Some of these people also thing Goligonski is a better defensive asset to this team.

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01-07-2011, 10:20 AM
  #33
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I love how the Pens are now a top 5 defensive team in the league and people are still complaining about those contracts.

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01-07-2011, 10:21 AM
  #34
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I find it hard to argue with the Martin and Michalek signings seeing as the team is currently sitting in 2nd for GA/G and 1st in PK% while still in 5th in GF/G.

Shero got Martin for under market value as he had many offers on the table for more than he settled for to play for the Pens. I am certain that it was no different for Michalek. To get quality defensive players you have to pony up a good bit of cash, and if not for the emergence of Letang, they would clearly be the #1 defensive pairing for this team.

As pertains to the OP, I personally would hang on to Goligoski unless there is an offer that brings in a proven top-six winger. There's always a chance he could break out next year and have his value sky-rocket as well. No need to move him unless there is an offer Shero simply can't refuse or Depres is 100% ready.

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01-07-2011, 10:22 AM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AugustBurnsRed View Post
I love how the Pens are now a top 5 defensive team in the league and people are still complaining about those contracts.
You obviously are not aware that good defenders grow on trees; freely available to all during the summer picking season.

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01-07-2011, 10:24 AM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cassius View Post
Yep - Shero definitely overpaid for Michalek / Martin. My biggest beef with the Martin/Michalek contracts is that it limits us from a winger perspective. Throwing $9M at two stay at home defensemen when you have absolutely no skilled wingers is just silly.
Well it's not like there were a ton of wingers out there in FA to be had last year.

Plus it's not like the team couldn't have used an infusion on the defensive side of the puck with Gonchar leaving.

It was and either/or basically, and with no top wingers out in FA last year, Shero went where there was quality and shored up the defense. Can't blame him for that at all. Imagine what the defense would look like without Martin/Michaelek right now...

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01-07-2011, 10:26 AM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gooch View Post
Martin's contract is replacing a 70+ point Dman who played in all situations from it, comparing it to that I think it's a big dud of a signing.
The 70+ point player that's never scored 70 points. Let's not make things up to make an argument.


Quote:
Originally Posted by cassius View Post
Yep - Shero definitely overpaid for Michalek / Martin. My biggest beef with the Martin/Michalek contracts is that it limits us from a winger perspective. Throwing $9M at two stay at home defensemen when you have absolutely no skilled wingers is just silly.
What about when you have absolutely no defensemen??????

Because a team with

Orpik - Letang
Eaton - Goligoski

plus a 2M fill in would be anywhere near as effective as our current team. But wait, we'd have Frolov!

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01-07-2011, 10:27 AM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Malkochalek View Post
I should've just waited for your post so I could say "what Cole said". You can't really judge the guys on the same criteria because they have somewhat different roles out there. And come playoff time I'll take Martin's defensive smarts and ability over Goligoski's occasional monster offensive game or the random Assist + rookie-like defensive mistakes any day.
The good thing about this discussion is that us Martin fan boys also give a lot of credit to Gogo. Except when you give him a D!!

In all seriousness, I think both sides can agree to a few things.

- Gogo's cap hit is amazing for the talent he has. I've said it before and will say it again, he has the talent to be a great all-around defender in this league. He still is inconsistent, but that is to be understood as he is still a youthful defenseman in terms of games/role. He can be very weak in the defensive zone and needs to really focus on that aspect of his game come this off-season.

The way the game is being played, you can not be an offensive weapon and defensive zone liability. A few guys come to mind that never worked on their defensive zone game. It's truly the difference between sitting on the shelf and being a star in the league. ***That doesn't mean Gogo is a liability***

- The market for defenders like Martin could not be higher. You can not say overpaid because realistically he could have gotten more. That definitely plays a part into this conversation. It's been forgotten so far.

- You can't put a price tag on skill and you can't put one on intangibles. That's what makes the Gogo and Martin debate so difficult. Stats don't back up their skill levels and potential roles for our team.

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Old
01-07-2011, 10:29 AM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WVP View Post

What about when you have absolutely no defensemen??????

Because a team with

Orpik - Letang
Eaton - Goligoski

plus a 2M fill in would be anywhere near as effective as our current team. But wait, we'd have Frolov!
Don't waste your time, WVP.

This conversation has been attempted multiple times. Some people will just refuse to see that rationale.

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Old
01-07-2011, 10:34 AM
  #40
Jeff Goldblum
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Alex Goligoski is a very valuable defender. He's young and still learning how to play the game safely, which is why you see a lot of people advocating for him to be traded. Most just don't understand the time it takes for the average NHL player to adjust and reach his full potential. We need to be patient with this one, but I'm confident he is going to be a very good player.

That said, he is the clear #5 on this team at this point in time. Paul Martin is simply a better defender. I'm sorry to reply to such a lengthy post with such a succinct and absolute post of my own, but no amount of statistical analysis will convince me that my eyes are wrong.

I also feel like there is the possibility that bias played a part in your posting this, TR. I know you were very high on Gonchar and opposed to Martin when those discussions came up pre/post signing. You can always find stats that tell you what you want to see, and I think that may have happened here. Normally I wouldn't mention that at all, but since you accused 'the majority' here of seeing what we want to see, I think it's only fair the same be questioned of you. I simply can't believe that a guy who knows the game as well as you do can believe that Alex Goligoski is more important to this roster than Paul Martin.

This team is succeeding because it has two pairings worth of players who can play against the top players in the league. This is less important in the regular season when you regularly face below-average talent and one-line teams (which impacts QoC stats and the like), but Shero has always built his teams for the post-season. This 'overload' on defense is going to pay dividends when deep offensive teams like Washington and Philadelphia can't get their best six forwards out on the ice without facing one of our two top pairings.

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01-07-2011, 10:37 AM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ColePens View Post
The good thing about this discussion is that us Martin fan boys also give a lot of credit to Gogo. Except when you give him a D!!
Hey, you said we were grading on an absolute scale where C = doing your job for that role and nothing more. Hence... D. Look, we gotta be hard on Golsagainstme or his offensive success will go to his head.


Quote:
Originally Posted by ColePens
In all seriousness, I think both sides can agree to a few things.

- Gogo's cap hit is amazing for the talent he has. ...

The way the game is being played, you can not be an offensive weapon and defensive zone liability. ***That doesn't mean Gogo is a liability***

- The market for defenders like Martin could not be higher. You can not say overpaid because realistically he could have gotten more.

- You can't put a price tag on skill and you can't put one on intangibles. That's what makes the Gogo and Martin debate so difficult. Stats don't back up their skill levels and potential roles for our team.


Agree Goligretzky's cap hit is very good, and even though he is defensively shaky much of the time (still), next year could be a different story. Takes D a good 3 or 4 seasons to really relax and do what Letang is doing this year, assuming the skill is there.

As for overpaid, I see everyone's salary as a range, not a fixed number. Martin is a guy who was going to get anywhere from $4-$6M and he landed in the middle. I don't *agree* he is overpaid much at all, if any, but I do get the argument that you could spend $3.5M let's say in any given year, and get someone who is nearly as good defensively. Not sure last year was that year though. Example: I don't think paying Hamhuis $4M or whatever he would've gotten here would've resulted in an equally good defensive team necessarily, for $1M less. It's all speculation because it never happened and we'll never know but I think Shero's decisions last summer were fundamentally sound, given the assets out there on FA and his money situation.

Next summer hopefully we get a bit of a cap boost and can cut some of these ineffective or over-priced grinders loose. Dupers, Rupp, Talbot... their days may be numbered unless they have a great second half.

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01-07-2011, 10:43 AM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WVP View Post
What about when you have absolutely no defensemen??????

Because a team with

Orpik - Letang
Eaton - Goligoski

plus a 2M fill in would be anywhere near as effective as our current team. But wait, we'd have Frolov!
nicely done

People forget the amount of money being thrown around to defenseman

Sergei Gonchar $5.5 million 18 points -20
Dan Hamhuis $4.5 million 11 points +10
Anton Volchenkov $4.25 million 2 points -7
Henrik Tallinder $3.325 million 4 points -26
Jordan Leopold $3 milllion 22 points -5
Toni Lydman $3 million 16 points +21
Mark Eaton $2.5 million 3 points -2
Andy Sutton $2.125 million 2 points -4
Shaone Morrison $2.075 million 2 points -8

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01-07-2011, 10:44 AM
  #43
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Threads like this are why we have the smartest fans in the NHL, or at least on HFBoards. You just don't see this kind of discussion on other boards.

But anyway, the only things I see that matter right now are: First in Eastern Conference in points, 5th in GFA, 2nd in GAA, and 1st in PK%. I suffered through years of offensive juggernauts with paltry defense, but now I can finally be confident that we'll kill off that last-minute penalty, or will win that 2-1 game.

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01-07-2011, 10:47 AM
  #44
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That starting post doesn't hold a candle stick to one of star dogs rants.

I like Martin even though I don't think of him as being the typical #1 Dman. Usually you see a teams highest paid Dman being their highest scorer and as a PPQB. Thats just not the case with Martin. That doesn't make him bad though. His value is found at 5 on 5 play, breaking up plays and making a quick turn around pass up ice and getting to loose pucks on the defensive end(which starts puck possession). One part that I love about his game, and the Pens new style, is that he brings offense from the defensive zone and defense is the offensive zone. Meaning his passing from the defensive zone and keeping puck in the offensive zone are elite. He also seems like a great locker room guy and a nice role model for Gogs and Tanger.

Those parts of the game are what the Pens sorely lacked last year and why they're a better team this year.

As for Gogs, I think he gets to much hate on these boards. The only thing really holding him back is his strength and I think that will come in time. I' would like to see him sneak into the high slot a little more though.

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01-07-2011, 10:47 AM
  #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cassius View Post
I think it's a decent sample size. We're just over halfway through the season - I think it's fair to evaluate players at the halfway mark.
I didn't discount it entirely.
I'm going to use a part of what was presented to provide an opposite interpretation from what the OP suggested.

The stats presented are not of equal value. Some of the sample sizes are much smaller than some of the others.
ES time carries the most weight because there's more of it to measure. Look at Martin's ES figures - best on the team.

You also have to consider that when you've got a bunch of figures that don't entirely agree with each other you need to make a judgement about which is most likely to be representative. Which figure is more likely to be representative of Martin's performance? The ~ 20 minutes per game he spends ES or the ~ 1-2 minutes he spends on the PK?

The OP didn't see the data through to a logical conclusion - he just stopped when he thought he had enough of it to overwhelm people.

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01-07-2011, 10:48 AM
  #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cassius View Post
Yep - Shero definitely overpaid for Michalek / Martin.
Not according to the market value. You can't just watch 1/10th of a player's contract length and judge his cap-hit. It's easy to say that someone is playing at a 3.5M/year level at any given time when he is signed for 5M.

Your winger argument is fine - I don't agree with it because I'd rather stack the defense, but it's a perfectly valid viewpoint.

Quote:
ES Goals against/60 minutes:
Martin: 1.90, (Engelland 1.90 ), Orpik: 1.93, Gogo: 2.02, Letang: 2.03, Michalek: 2.33 (Lovejoy: 2.67, think what this does for Gogo's number...).
If you're going to suggest that Lovejoy, who has seen very limited time with Goligoski as opposed to Engelland, has impacted this stat, then you need to specifically note that Engelland has no doubt helped Goligoski's rating.

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01-07-2011, 10:50 AM
  #47
Lionel Hutz
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Originally Posted by Jeff Goldblum View Post
Alex Goligoski is a very valuable defender. He's young and still learning how to play the game safely, which is why you see a lot of people advocating for him to be traded. Most just don't understand the time it takes for the average NHL player to adjust and reach his full potential. We need to be patient with this one, but I'm confident he is going to be a very good player.
I think the people in the trade camp do understand that it takes time to fully develop. I for one do, and the fact that I am also confident he will be a very player is the very reason why I think he should be traded. I think some people around here would be surprised what his value is to other GMs. Meanwhile, this team has a glaring need and its not on defense.

I do think highly of Goligoski, and I acknowledge that as a whole the Pens defence is downgraded by losing him and adding a servicible bottom pairing guy. I just think that is outweighed, and the team would be improved by adding a legit top-6 winger, and that Goli can bring that return.

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01-07-2011, 10:51 AM
  #48
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Goals Against Per Game

2010-2011...2.26 2nd in the NHL

2009-2010...2.87 20th in the NHL

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01-07-2011, 10:53 AM
  #49
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Originally Posted by eXile59 View Post
Goals Against Per Game

2010-2011...2.26 2nd in the NHL

2009-2010...2.87 20th in the NHL
But dude....

Ray Whitney!

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01-07-2011, 10:53 AM
  #50
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I really like your post OP. I'm not saying it's a fact or anything of the sort, but I do like the situations you used as evidence. Very cool way of looking at it.

I'm a huge fan of Gogo, but also of our all around defense. I can't say who is more important, but I do think it will be easier to replace what Martin has brought so far than it will be to replace what I think Gogo does this year and will do in the future.

He does the most line rotating ES, PK, PP than our other defenders because whenever one of our top4 is in the box or not right for the situation he comes in and plays great. He is rotating between two guys who really, aren't top 6 defenders in the league yet, as his regular partner and he does a great job with both of them for the most part. I think it will be hard to find a #5 for his price now OR for his next contract price (3-3.5mil/yr)? I think he can easily slot into a top 4 role with a more sturdy partner if need be.

That all being said, I like keeping our def-core together. They're all signed long term, but Gogo and I dont think Gogo's next contract can be more than Letang's. So why not keep our amazing def for this year, next year at the same cap and then basically add 1-1.5 more mil to the defensive cap and keep it together. Let Lovejoy/Engelland battle it out for 7th (engo already)? and bring in Despres for #6 and see how he does.

Our offense has slumps but this team is built around Crosby, Malkin, Staal for forwards and when they do their job, our offense is fine. We have options at winger still and even without, this team is playing extremely well. I like our team right now and I'd hate for RS to break it up this season without seeing how far they can go.

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