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Why Paul Martin is less important than Gogo (the longest post in forum history?)

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Old
01-07-2011, 10:56 AM
  #51
Jeff Goldblum
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Originally Posted by Lionel Hutz View Post
I think the people in the trade camp do understand that it takes time to fully develop. I for one do, and the fact that I am also confident he will be a very player is the very reason why I think he should be traded. I think some people around here would be surprised what his value is to other GMs. Meanwhile, this team has a glaring need and its not on defense.

I do think highly of Goligoski, and I acknowledge that as a whole the Pens defence is downgraded by losing him and adding a servicible bottom pairing guy. I just think that is outweighed, and the team would be improved by adding a legit top-6 winger, and that Goli can bring that return.
That's all fine. I didn't mean to paint everyone with the same brush stroke, that was just more of a side comment than anything. I just wanted it to be clear that I really like Alex Goligoski and still don't think he's anywhere close to Martin in terms of importance to this roster's success.

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01-07-2011, 10:56 AM
  #52
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Originally Posted by Jeff Goldblum View Post
That said, he is the clear #5 on this team at this point in time. Paul Martin is simply a better defender. I'm sorry to reply to such a lengthy post with such a succinct and absolute post of my own, but no amount of statistical analysis will convince me that my eyes are wrong.
This snippet sums up my general thought on the subject.

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01-07-2011, 10:57 AM
  #53
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How is QoC calculated? Is it based off shots like Corsi? One thing I've noticed is that Martin and Michalek are adept at stripping a puck prior to a shot and blocking passes which I don't believe are tallied. I think Corsi doesn't include blocked shots so that might devalue those who do tend to block shots.

Martin and Michalek are also a bit affected by Winner's Curse. While it is a bit disappointing that they haven't shown to be obviously superior defenders in all aspects due to their contract values, I'd only be worried if this season turns out to be their peak.

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01-07-2011, 10:59 AM
  #54
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Originally Posted by WVP View Post
What about when you have absolutely no defensemen??????

Because a team with

Orpik - Letang
Eaton - Goligoski

plus a 2M fill in would be anywhere near as effective as our current team. But wait, we'd have Frolov!
What about when you have absolutely no top-6 wingers outside of Kunitz????????????????

We could have at least signed one solid defenseman or pushed for a trade. You guys act like the only solution was to sink $9M cap hit into two defenders.

I would have been much happier signing one of Martin or Michalek and using the remaining cap space to address the issues on the wing.

Shero obviously decided to go all in on defense and completely neglected our needs on the wing. I don't think thats the best way to build around a team with two of the most gifted playmakers in the league.

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01-07-2011, 11:04 AM
  #55
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Originally Posted by cassius View Post
What about when you have absolutely no top-6 wingers outside of Kunitz????????????????

We could have at least signed one solid defenseman or pushed for a trade. You guys act like the only solution was to sink $9M cap hit into two defenders.

I would have been much happier signing one of Martin or Michalek and using the remaining cap space to address the issues on the wing.

Shero obviously decided to go all in on defense and completely neglected our needs on the wing. I don't think thats the best way to build around a team with two of the most gifted playmakers in the league.
The standings (the actual results) don't reflect your opinion.

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01-07-2011, 11:06 AM
  #56
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Originally Posted by cassius View Post
What about when you have absolutely no top-6 wingers outside of Kunitz????????????????

We could have at least signed one solid defenseman or pushed for a trade. You guys act like the only solution was to sink $9M cap hit into two defenders.

I would have been much happier signing one of Martin or Michalek and using the remaining cap space to address the issues on the wing.

Shero obviously decided to go all in on defense and completely neglected our needs on the wing. I don't think thats the best way to build around a team with two of the most gifted playmakers in the league.
Average defense + great offense = Washington. Average defense also likely = disappointing Fleury. You just can't win by skimping on defense unless you're hiding a prime Hasek somewhere.

And it sucks to "not build around" Crosby and Malkin, but you know what, both of those lines have a 40 goal scorer on them.

Here's Mirtle's list of top free agents this summer: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...rticle1611942/

What would you have done? I think a lot of the reason that the complaining rubs people the wrong way is that nobody presents an argument for what they would have done. "Sign a winger!!!!".....well, who?

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01-07-2011, 11:07 AM
  #57
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Originally Posted by cassius View Post
What about when you have absolutely no top-6 wingers outside of Kunitz????????????????

We could have at least signed one solid defenseman or pushed for a trade. You guys act like the only solution was to sink $9M cap hit into two defenders.

I would have been much happier signing one of Martin or Michalek and using the remaining cap space to address the issues on the wing.

Shero obviously decided to go all in on defense and completely neglected our needs on the wing. I don't think thats the best way to build around a team with two of the most gifted playmakers in the league.
Thats a great idea if the purpose is to stack our centers stats but in the playoffs having a solid deep defense is what wins.

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01-07-2011, 11:09 AM
  #58
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Originally Posted by AugustBurnsRed View Post
The standings (the actual results) don't reflect your opinion.
Last year's playoffs reflects my opinion. How many goals did we score against a putrid Montreal defense? 12 in 7 games.

It's easy to shut down the Pens in the playoffs when you have no secondary scoring. Put a blanket of defenders on Crosby and Malkin then you're good to go. Montreal executed that strategy to perfection.

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01-07-2011, 11:11 AM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Fogel View Post
How is QoC calculated? Is it based off shots like Corsi? One thing I've noticed is that Martin and Michalek are adept at stripping a puck prior to a shot and blocking passes which I don't believe are tallied. I think Corsi doesn't include blocked shots so that might devalue those who do tend to block shots.

Martin and Michalek are also a bit affected by Winner's Curse. While it is a bit disappointing that they haven't shown to be obviously superior defenders in all aspects due to their contract values, I'd only be worried if this season turns out to be their peak.
I'm also curious about this. Our acceptance of the original premise depends on some metrics that I don't know much about. If the metrics are solid then that's all fine and good but if it's possible to poke holes in the metrics (as you are suggesting) then it undermines most of what was previously said.

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01-07-2011, 11:13 AM
  #60
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We got within 1 game of winning the cup with this defense:

Gonchar, Whitney, a young Kris Letang, Orpik, Gill, and Scuderi. I'm sure leading up to the 2007/2008 season, there weren't many threads on the main board bragging about our impressive defensive pairings.

There's many different ways to skin the cat when you have a team with several bonafide superstars. I think the best model is to build around your centers and surround your playmakers with skilled wingers. Obviously, Shero's school of thought is to fill the lineup with grinders, stay at home defenseman, and eek out 2-1 games.

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01-07-2011, 11:14 AM
  #61
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Originally Posted by cassius View Post
Last year's playoffs reflects my opinion. How many goals did we score against a putrid Montreal defense? 12 in 7 games.

It's easy to shut down the Pens in the playoffs when you have no secondary scoring. Put a blanket of defenders on Crosby and Malkin then you're good to go. Montreal executed that strategy to perfection.
Keep in mind we have a better defense as well. Can't point to the offense as being the same and ignore that the defense is indeed majorly upgraded, with Letang, Martin and Michalek.

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01-07-2011, 11:15 AM
  #62
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Originally Posted by Milliardo View Post
I can't really believe that is what Shero was hoping for, because that is not a 5 million dollar player. Is Martin the highest paid defender in the league relative to his offensive game?
Nope, that has to be Jay Bouwmeister. The bumb.

On trading Gogo...it's not that I don't like him as a player. He's just clearly our mose valuable asset to trade and probably has the best chance of being oversold. When you factor in his weaknesses and his boneheaded plays (like flubbing a pass against philly at the blueline on the PP and watching hartnell chase after it without even trying to get back) a trade of him for a young winger of equal caliber would be both addition by addition and addition by subtraction in some respects. Not to mention he's going to want a big raise after next year, and I don't like paying d-men big money if they don't play good d (why I hate Jayblow).

I doubt it happens this season, but maybe at the draft or this offseason. With Engel n Lovejoy locked up and Despres, Bortuzzo, and Strait all on the cusp someone's got to go within the next 2 years.

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01-07-2011, 11:17 AM
  #63
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Originally Posted by cassius View Post
Last year's playoffs reflects my opinion. How many goals did we score against a putrid Montreal defense? 12 in 7 games.

It's easy to shut down the Pens in the playoffs when you have no secondary scoring. Put a blanket of defenders on Crosby and Malkin then you're good to go. Montreal executed that strategy to perfection.
They also executed it to perfection against the capitals in case you've forgotten.

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01-07-2011, 11:17 AM
  #64
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Originally Posted by WVP View Post
Keep in mind we have a better defense as well. Can't point to the offense as being the same and ignore that the defense is indeed majorly upgraded, with Letang, Martin and Michalek.
Martin and Michalek are solid defensively, but they aren't going to help us score goals.

I said it last year - our problem against Montreal wasn't so much the defense, but it was our lack of secondary scoring depth. Guerin, Kunitz, and all those guys had a great series against Ottawa, but literally nobody showed up against Montreal.

If Montreal is blanketing Crosby/Malkin and we aren't getting secondary scoring there's a good chance we lose that series. I just don't know who is going to pick up the slack in terms of secondary scoring. Kunitz is obviously a guy you look to, but after him and Staal there's a big drop off.

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01-07-2011, 11:17 AM
  #65
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Originally Posted by cassius View Post
Last year's playoffs reflects my opinion. How many goals did we score against a putrid Montreal defense? 12 in 7 games.

It's easy to shut down the Pens in the playoffs when you have no secondary scoring. Put a blanket of defenders on Crosby and Malkin then you're good to go. Montreal executed that strategy to perfection.
Defense/Fleury completely shat the bed the last 2 games of that series. Also, putrid? Their D was definitely not putrid. Like the other poster said, that defense also shut down the Caps.

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01-07-2011, 11:19 AM
  #66
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Originally Posted by cassius View Post
Martin and Michalek are solid defensively, but they aren't going to help us score goals.

I said it last year - our problem against Montreal wasn't so much the defense, but it was our lack of secondary scoring depth. Guerin, Kunitz, and all those guys had a great series against Ottawa, but literally nobody showed up against Montreal.

If Montreal is blanketing Crosby/Malkin and we aren't getting secondary scoring there's a good chance we lose that series. I just don't know who is going to pick up the slack in terms of secondary scoring. Kunitz is obviously a guy you look to, but after him and Staal there's a big drop off.
Then it's not a case of bad offense but a case of **** happens.

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01-07-2011, 11:22 AM
  #67
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Originally Posted by cassius View Post
I would have been much happier signing one of Martin or Michalek and using the remaining cap space to address the issues on the wing.
By signing who?

Assuming Martin's $5 million was spent on a winger last summer during free agency, who would you have signed? Other than Kovalchuk, I don't think there was a single winger worth $5 million last summer.

Stempniak? Hardly.
Frolov? You mean the guy the Rangers are trying to get rid of?
Zherdev? Possibly. But even he seems to have trouble staying in the Flyers line up (and he's not Martin's price tag).
Armstrong? Good one.

It's easy to say Shero should have signed a winger instead of Martin. But it gets a whole lot harder when you can't even name a single winger who would be worth that price tag.

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01-07-2011, 11:23 AM
  #68
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Originally Posted by AugustBurnsRed View Post
Defense/Fleury completely shat the bed the last 2 games of that series. Also, putrid? Their D was definitely not putrid. Like the other poster said, that defense also shut down the Caps.
The past three two games against Montreal we scored an average of 2 goals per game. Thats just the offense underachieving.

The Montreal defense might not have been putrid, but it's definitely pretty pedestrian:

Marc Andre Bergeron, Hall Gill, Josh Gorges, Roman Hamrilik, PK Subban, and Jaroslav Spake.

Not exactly the type of defense that strikes fear into any opponents eyes. Most of those guys are undersized and MAB is no longer even in the NHL.

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01-07-2011, 11:24 AM
  #69
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What I can do is argue the fact that we are comparing apples and oranges when it comes to Gogo.
I honestly think it is unfair to reduce it to that Coas le. I am looking at Martin relative to our other defenders on a host of parameters to evaluate what we're getting for our 5 million - considering what Martin has done and what role he plays.

After that, as a side issue, because so many argue that Gogo should be traded, I propose that Goligoski - in his role - is more important and has been doing better for us than Martin has - in his role this season.

Why? Because what Goligoski is doing is much more difficult to replace and fully impossible at the same salary - or close to that salary.
Martin is playing good defense - but not against opponents best and he is not a stand out for any of our special team units, nor is he showing himself capable of being even a light version of what Letang and Gogo are when it comes to facilitating offense from the blueline. And that he should. When this is so, you can get lots of players to do the same job, surely without costing 5 million per.

At the end of the day this is not different than objecting to paying significant money to a third or fourth line forward unless they're bringing a quality that is really needed on the team. That's not a negative verdict on Martin's ability. It is saying that we need the specific abilities he has less so than most other teams.
On the other hand we have a small blueline that is susceptible to be hemmed in by a strong forecheck and get beaten behind our net (that happens also to Martin and Michalek when opponents manage to establish themselves in our zone, but much less so against Orpik/Letang who beat them up and clear out the crease better.) If you put a Toni Lydman - signed last year for 3 million by Anaheim - next to Michalek that duo is not as good at jumping into plays but it is a stronger shut down unit, and after all that is what our second pairing is about now, because it doesn't produce offensively.
NB: I think Martin is a 'better' player than Lydman overall, but for our purposes I think Lydman is better and at the price significantly so.).

Quote:
Originally Posted by ColePens View Post
For this discussion, goals/assists/plus-minus don't really play a big role. That's why we have guys like Gogo and Letang on the roster. That's their role.
Yeah. Exactly. Scoring is someone else's job. Playing against opponents best is someone else's job. Being our top penalty killer is someone else's job. Being our top blueliner on the PP is someone elses job. When you break it down like that, Martin succeeding for us is certainly very likely... and he skates like a dream .

No, seriously.... I have no doubt that Martin will constantly be a dependable and good player for us, but it is simply not fair to point out that Gogo has things to learn defensively (obviously) without pointing out that Martin has had many major gaffes himself. If it had been Gogo allowing the goals Martin has over these past four games he'd be getting crucified. But he hasn't. In fact they've been few and far between.
Martin IS a better defenseman, surely, but the results haven't shown it much and Gogo's edge offensively is to me bigger than Martin's defensively. Stats/facts/results certainly support that and I care a lot more about that than 'poise' - something Gogo will only get more of with experience.
To me Martin is just the one of our top5 who is delivering the least value/$, and the one with the least well defined niché on the team.

We need Letang's nr.1 play and all-round excellence. We need Orpik's physicality. We need Michalek's 'Scuderiism', shotblocking, Pk'ing and positional defense. We need Goligoski's offense and PP ability (as we have no one else). We need Engelland's no-nonsense play and fighting ability. Martin? Great overall guy and an insurance policy against injury as he can play everywhere, but he delivers nothing we don't already have better. Why pay a premium for that?

I don't care if the market for his kind of player couldn't be higher (actually, I think its great because then the return on him would be great too), because his kind of player is not what WE need. Not any more. We already have him - better, faster, stronger, more dangerous. His name is Kris Letang.
No one could have known that prior to the season where everyone expected Martin to be our nr.1 guy, or at least play that role', and that's why I am not arguing that Shero made a mistake'.
I didn't say that then either as there weren't really any nr.1 guy available once we dumped the idea of Gonchar (which has proven a good thing). Rather I am saying that Martin is the one we can move down the line once we want to move one of the present D-men to either create room for a better winger or make room for Despres.

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01-07-2011, 11:28 AM
  #70
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I don't get why people are so hung up on goals. If this defense/goaltending can keep the GAA <2 goals, we can win a lot of games with what we have on offense.

If we can trade for a winger, all it does is give our defense/goaltending some more leeway.


Cassius, can you please, for once, tell us what moves you would have made this offseason?

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01-07-2011, 11:30 AM
  #71
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Gogo is better than Martin?

The OP's been bashing Martin since we signed him. It's hard to keep paying attention to it really.

Shero doesn't need HF or statistics. He watched Martin with his trained eye for years and said that he picked the brain of other GM's about Martin during the Olympics, which validated his opinion of the guy.

Martin was brought in for defense, not offense. Shero never claimed he'd replace Gonchar statistically. He just said he thought they'd score enough goals and Martin/Michalek would make their defense better and they have.

Stats don't tell the story with Martin. Do they keep track of pokechecks, gap control, not blowing assignments etc. He's good at subtle things that aren't measured with statistics. Personnel guys scout and look hard at these type of things. Fans just dig up stats off the internet and look for highlight reel hits, which isn't Martin's game.

And the overpayment? Yeah, I wish we wouldn't have coughed up a few 100k more for Michalek/Martin so we could still have a mediocre or terrible defense.

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01-07-2011, 11:33 AM
  #72
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Why Gogo is less important than Paul Martin: Simon Despres.

We have a prospect who likely will be at least as good as Gogo in pretty much every facet of his game. And he'll be getting NHL minutes by 2012-13 at the very latest.

I suppose Martin could be traded and replaced with Despres, but it's not as clean of a parts swap. It also sends a message to free agents that this team has no qualms trading you shortly after signing you, and no team wants to get that reputation.

I've been very impressed with Gogo this year. And I would trade him in the offseason for a legitimate top-line winger. Those two sentiments are not mutually exclusive, and when you have as much quality defensemen in the system, something has to give. I'd rather go into 2012 with Martin + Despres + new top-line winger than Gogo + Despres + new top-line winger.

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01-07-2011, 11:38 AM
  #73
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Illinest View Post
The stats presented are not of equal value. Some of the sample sizes are much smaller than some of the others.
ES time carries the most weight because there's more of it to measure. Look at Martin's ES figures - best on the team.
'Best'? As in slightly lower GAA while not playing the toughest competition and while not scoring much on our own with Martin on the ice? How is that 'best'?
The objective is not to be the one who concedes the least. It is about winning.

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The OP didn't see the data through to a logical conclusion - he just stopped when he thought he had enough of it to overwhelm people.
What logical conclusion would that be? I doubt there is one. Lots of interpretation though.
As for sample size... we have what we have. Martin is the player he has always been. There's nothing new about what we see here, except he hasn't been effectively a second pairing player since the days of Niedermayer/Rafalski in New Jersey when he was a rookie or just about.

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Originally Posted by Dr. Frasier Crane View Post
If you're going to suggest that Lovejoy, who has seen very limited time with Goligoski as opposed to Engelland, has impacted this stat, then you need to specifically note that Engelland has no doubt helped Goligoski's rating.
I can do that, I guess. My point is that Goligoski is the constant, and that he is the one who has to make it work with two NHL rookies who go in and out of the line-up. The pairing is noticeably less stable defensively with Lovejoy (but better offensively), and considering that Engelland plays almost exclusively with Gogo ES, looking at the numbers it would appear to me reasonable to suggest that over the season in full so far Gogo's defensive stats have been 'damaged' when Lovejoy has played instead of Engelland. But if you want to turn it around and say that Engelland has made Gogo better.... fair enough. I just think Gogo is overall a better defenseman than Deryk just the same and thus more likely to be the one improving the other. They complement each other very well however. Skill/toughness - just like is the case on the first pairing.

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01-07-2011, 11:40 AM
  #74
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Originally Posted by JTG32005 View Post
Cassius, can you please, for once, tell us what moves you would have made this offseason?
As you guys pointed out many times, the UFA market wasn't great, but there were plenty of deals to be had in the trade market.

First, if I were Shero I would have been calling Stan Bowman non-stop. Versteeg and Ladd could have both been great coups for the Pens.

If you ask me, I think we should have made a substantial offer for Nathan Horton. He's a big power forward, right handed shot in his prime years signed to a reasonable cap hit.

Another possibility is Simon Gagne, who was acquired for a paltry 4th round pick and Matt Walker. He's an injury liability, but I think the risk is worth the reward.

As far as the defense, I would have signed Michalek and Salei. I think our defense would have been fine as follows:

Orpik - Letang
Goligoski - Michalek
Lovejoy/Engelland - Ruslan Salei

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01-07-2011, 11:46 AM
  #75
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Originally Posted by cassius View Post
As you guys pointed out many times, the UFA market wasn't great, but there were plenty of deals to be had in the trade market.

First, if I were Shero I would have been calling Stan Bowman non-stop. Versteeg and Ladd could have both been great coups for the Pens.

If you ask me, I think we should have made a substantial offer for Nathan Horton. He's a big power forward, right handed shot in his prime years signed to a reasonable cap hit.

Another possibility is Simon Gagne, who was acquired for a paltry 4th round pick and Matt Walker. He's an injury liability, but I think the risk is worth the reward.

As far as the defense, I would have signed Michalek and Salei. I think our defense would have been fine as follows:

Orpik - Letang
Goligoski - Michalek
Lovejoy/Engelland - Ruslan Salei
It was said during draft coverage that Shero was talking to Chicago about Versteeg but Chicago's price was way too high.

In order for a trade to happen, both sides need to accept the deal.

That defense just isn't very good. It's not NEARLY as good defensively or offensively or deep. You also have to take into consideration that we had no idea Letang would be as good as he has been

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