I remember following this site last year which calculates the chances of each team making the playoffs. After the loss last night against canes, we're at 31.5% chance of making the playoffs.
Now, if you scroll down to the bottom of the page you will see what happens if we finish the season with different winning percentages. By watching those numbers we can come up with a few conclusions:
A: In order for us to be 100% sure we make the playoffs this year, we need to finish the season with 72.1% of wins from now on, our record would be 29-10-4. that would give us 100 points to finish the season, and BOOM; a real reason to use the confetti!
B: If we want to stay above a 50% chance of making the playoffs, we must finish the season with 25 -14-4 which is 62.8% of wins for the remainder of the season.
this would land us 92 points, and the percentage of us making the playoffs would be 62.4%.
C: Lets be more realistic and say we finish the season with a 50% record. 19-19-5, this would make us finish the season with 81 points and and a 0% chance of playoffs. it would realistically put us around 11th in the eastern conference.
Now, if you havent done it already, click the link at the top of the page and have a look for yourself. Unless we pull off a comeback south florida hockey fans have never seen before, we're basically already out of the race even though we arent many points behind in the standings.
Is it time for Tallon to look at numbers and realize?
Let me know what you guys think!
Last edited by Angus MacGyver: 01-12-2011 at 11:22 AM.
I would like him to start selling assets now, but I picked A because he will probably get more value for players by waiting until the deadline, and from the sounds of it, he isn't going to do a big firesale anyway so there isn't much point to getting bad value for players now because it seems like he doesn't want to move guys like Vokoun or Higgins, who is playing well. It wouldn't surprise me if Stillman and McCabe are the only guys who get traded at the deadline. I would like us to try to re-sign Reasoner, and Higgins as well. He's really turned it around in the last few weeks and will come cheap to re-sign as opposed to what is going to be on the market this summer. This team won't be that much worse trading away Stillman and McCabe anyway. Caber is now a certified turnover machine, he's really starting to go downhill.
I said start selling assets now because it seems like there wont be much of a race in the East for the last spot and we don't want to be left holding onto players. The sooner we sell the closer we'll get to last place (we'll never catch the Devils).
As much I hate missing the playoffs again this is best for the long term competitiveness of this franchise.
I would say we start dealing players now, but Tallon wont do that. He will wait until the deadline to make deals, because he doesnt want to show the fanbase that they are giving up on the season.
This team just isnt good enough to leap the teams ahead of them. Even at full strength, we do not have the firepower, or faith in each other for that matter, to get us there. The longer this goes on, the less of a chance we will have to get a top five pick. Id rather see this team lose often, and gain a top five pick, rather than play hard and get a pick around the 10 spot.
I would say we start dealing players now, but Tallon wont do that. He will wait until the deadline to make deals, because he doesnt want to show the fanbase that they are giving up on the season.
This team just isnt good enough to leap the teams ahead of them. Even at full strength, we do not have the firepower, or faith in each other for that matter, to get us there. The longer this goes on, the less of a chance we will have to get a top five pick. Id rather see this team lose often, and gain a top five pick, rather than play hard and get a pick around the 10 spot.
So true and the years we totally suck get top 3 pick there are no franchise players available. Go figure
Going with the statistics, it's going to take almost a miracle to make the postseason. It's funny that had we won the last two games against the Thrashers & Canes, our playoff percentage would I believe be over 60 or 65%. I don't want to have a fire sale just yet, but give it another week or two and if our playoff chances are over 50%, yeah it's over. Trade half of the team that we don't see in our future plans. I think Tallon will wait until the deadline though.
Going with the statistics, it's going to take almost a miracle to make the postseason. It's funny that had we won the last two games against the Thrashers & Canes, our playoff percentage would I believe be over 60 or 65%. I don't want to have a fire sale just yet, but give it another week or two and if our playoff chances are over 50%, yeah it's over. Trade half of the team that we don't see in our future plans. I think Tallon will wait until the deadline though.
yeah I was so amazed about how important these last few games actually were.
but its like i wrote in the op, even if we go with 50% for the rest of the season, we will still fail. and we just recently hit 50% for the first time, so I have a hard time to see any hope on the horizon...
"Just ran into Keaton Ellerby in DC...he's ready to go...don't know who he is playing for, but lots of rumors out there...Pete will talk at 5:30 and let us know #FlaPanthers #Caps"
"Just ran into Keaton Ellerby in DC...he's ready to go...don't know who he is playing for, but lots of rumors out there...Pete will talk at 5:30 and let us know #FlaPanthers #Caps"
Things are not as bad as something a three or five game win streak wouldn't solve. Montreal is fading fast and the lustre will come off Atlanta. No towel throwing if we can get some wins.....even getting 15 points out of next 10 games would be huge.
Things are not as bad as something a three or five game win streak wouldn't solve. Montreal is fading fast and the lustre will come off Atlanta. No towel throwing if we can get some wins.....even getting 15 points out of next 10 games would be huge.
I don't think we've won 5 games in a row in 10 years+ and even 4 in a row can be counted with one hand
Things are not as bad as something a three or five game win streak wouldn't solve. Montreal is fading fast and the lustre will come off Atlanta. No towel throwing if we can get some wins.....even getting 15 points out of next 10 games would be huge.
We all talked about how important this 13 game stretch was. We're 6 games in, and we're 2-2-2. We need to do a lot better if we're going to make up ground. I don't think we've even had a 4 game winning streak under DeBoer.
We need to turn it around very quickly if they want to keep a legitimate hope of the playoffs.
"Just ran into Keaton Ellerby in DC...he's ready to go...don't know who he is playing for, but lots of rumors out there...Pete will talk at 5:30 and let us know #FlaPanthers #Caps"
Defenseman Keaton Ellerby, who really didn’t deserve to be demoted back to Rochester, is back with the team today in frigid Washington D.C. … Word is that defenseman Bryan McCabe has a finger injury but I haven’t confirmed that yet with coach Pete DeBoer, who I will talk to at 5:45 p.m. at the Verizon Center.
