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2011 Playoff Push Discussion

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01-10-2011, 12:07 PM
  #1
c4rcy
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2011 Playoff Push Discussion

If you haven't seen this already, this is a really good statistical breakdown of the chances each team in the NHL has at making the playoffs.

As of now, Ducks are sitting in 5th place, 50 points, and have a 37.5% chance to make the playoffs. (because of more games played).

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

Chances by day:

1/10 - 37.5%
1/11 - 37.9% [+0.4]
1/12 - 39.4% [+1.5]
1/13 - 50.6% [+11.2] W St. Louis
1/14 - 51.6% [+1]
1/15 - 50.7% [-0.9]
L Phoenix
W Edmonton
1/18 - 41.7% [-9.0]
W Ottawa
L Toronto
W Montreal
1/24 - 42.5% [+0.8]
1/25 - 51.5% [+9] W Columbus


Last edited by c4rcy: 01-26-2011 at 12:27 PM.
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Old
01-10-2011, 12:22 PM
  #2
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Yeah, but in point percentage we`re just 20th in the league
We still need HUGE boost to make the playoffs.

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01-10-2011, 12:45 PM
  #3
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this site is pretty cool too http://zorak.best.vwh.net/nhl/#projected seems we're 3 points off the pace for the last spot, which also happens to be the 5th seed!!


Last edited by imbatman: 01-10-2011 at 04:21 PM.
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Old
01-10-2011, 12:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalvinators View Post
Yeah, but in point percentage we`re just 20th in the league
We still need HUGE boost to make the playoffs.
Well as someone posted above we're projected to finish just 3 points off 5th place ATM.

So I wouldn't say a big boost is required. If we can keep stringing, 3, 4, 5 win streaks together with minimal losses we'll be looking pretty good.

This is easily the most exciting playoff race in years IMO, really looking forward to see what happens.

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01-10-2011, 04:13 PM
  #5
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Well, I'm not too high considering we've played the most, back-to-back and in general, games in the League(thank you Bettman ) right now. We'll need to keep a consistent winning record down the stretch. To be honest, I think we've really overachieved given the roster. We just need to put a consistent winning effort in the rest of the way.

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01-10-2011, 04:38 PM
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The good thing is we have 37 games left during the ~3 month span as opposed to 39+ games like most other teams. Considering we're a much better 2nd half squad (as noted from the previous 3-4 seasons), I am optimistic.

Edit: 37 games, 39+ games left for other teams.


Last edited by c4rcy: 01-10-2011 at 06:51 PM.
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Old
01-10-2011, 05:15 PM
  #7
Jesus Teemu
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I wonder if Getzlaf's absence will allow him to heal up anything else that's been bothering him. I looked at some highlights of him in 08-09 when he has his most successful season and he looked a lot more explosive, powerful, and fast.

Here's to a fully rejuvenated Getzy from February on!

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Old
01-10-2011, 05:27 PM
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OMG! a positive thread about the team? this can't be?????

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Old
01-10-2011, 06:19 PM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by c4rcy View Post
The good thing is we have 39 games left during the ~3 month span as opposed to 41+ games like most other teams. Considering we're a much better 2nd half squad (as noted from the previous 3-4 seasons), I am optimistic.
this is great imo.. even though getzlaf is hurt for probably the remainder of the month and maybe a week or 2 in february it helsp that our schedule was more crammed in the 1st half and the second half.. having guys fresh is key in order for us to win w/o getzlaf.. especially hiller

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Old
01-11-2011, 12:12 AM
  #10
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Thank you Toronto!

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01-11-2011, 01:06 AM
  #11
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Nah but seriously, with the number of games we have played and the fact that more of them later on will be conference/division games, we need to get more winning streaks and hope other teams below us lose more than win.

Keep it up boys

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01-11-2011, 01:10 AM
  #12
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It's not as bad as it looks since the West is so ridiculously even this year. Blues winning % of .561 is good for 7th. Ducks are 11th at .556. Win Wednesday and those will flip. Ducks just need to win period and it will take care of itself.

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01-11-2011, 02:08 AM
  #13
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omg.. THANK THE LEAFS they actuall ybeat the kings

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Old
01-11-2011, 02:41 AM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ducks DVM View Post
It's not as bad as it looks since the West is so ridiculously even this year. Blues winning % of .561 is good for 7th. Ducks are 11th at .556. Win Wednesday and those will flip. Ducks just need to win period and it will take care of itself.
The West being so even in 08-09 was a huge help for us, hopefully we can go on another tear like we did then and leapfrog a bunch of teams. We're in a better position to do so this year than we were then although the personnel probably isn't as good.


Last edited by Paul4587: 01-11-2011 at 04:45 AM. Reason: Spelling
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01-11-2011, 03:08 AM
  #15
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The West being so even in 08-09 was a huge help for us, hopefully we can go on another tear like we did then and leapfrog a bunch of teams. We're in a better position to do so this year than we were then although the personal probably isn't as good.
i would LOVE to make the playoffs.. and not just because its the playoffs.. i dont think we'll go far at all with this squad.. 2nd round exit or 1st round exit is my guess unless hiller is absolutely amazing.. but i just want our youngsters to get that valuable playoff exp.. LOOKIN AT YOU FOWLER AND SBISA... i really think it would do them wonders, and plus we'll see how fowler reacts when everyone is smoking him every second he's out there.. will he be one of those great d-men that just rises above everything with his skill and poise or will he flunk.. sbisa i think will do great in the postseason..

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01-11-2011, 03:40 AM
  #16
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AND would be nice if Selanne could play playoffs once more. Koivu-Selänne in playoffs.. Koivu has been a playoff beast his whole career, and I'm sure Selänne will be on fire if that happens.

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01-11-2011, 08:40 AM
  #17
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Whole january every next game is brutal and MUST WIN.

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01-12-2011, 12:10 AM
  #18
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The Maple Leafs taking care of business these past 2 days. Loving it!

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Old
01-12-2011, 12:21 AM
  #19
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I'm going to go out on a limb and say this website's methodology is total crap.

Kings 23-18-1 72.3% chance of making the playoffs
Blackhawks 23-18-3 61.2%
Ducks 23-18-4 38.1%

3 overtime losses is worth a 34.2% deficit in your playoff chances.

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01-12-2011, 12:27 AM
  #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ducks DVM View Post
I'm going to go out on a limb and say this website's methodology is total crap.

Kings 23-18-1 72.3% chance of making the playoffs
Blackhawks 23-18-3 61.2%
Ducks 23-18-4 38.1%

3 overtime losses is worth a 34.2% deficit in your playoff chances.
The Blackhawks one is especially interesting.

My only guess is they are taking into account the teams that they have yet to play and the chances of winning/losing against them.

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Old
01-12-2011, 12:28 AM
  #21
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The Maple Leafs taking care of business these past 2 days. Loving it!

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Old
01-12-2011, 12:29 AM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ducks DVM View Post
I'm going to go out on a limb and say this website's methodology is total crap.

Kings 23-18-1 72.3% chance of making the playoffs
Blackhawks 23-18-3 61.2%
Ducks 23-18-4 38.1%

3 overtime losses is worth a 34.2% deficit in your playoff chances.
Click 50/50 in the top left of the page and it shows a more closer percentage between the ducks, kings, and hawks.

The weighted is putting more statistics and patterns into play to determine the % of making the playoffs.

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01-12-2011, 02:10 AM
  #23
Dirk316
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The fact that this team is even looking at the possibility of making the playoffs proves that Carlyle is one of the leagues ELITE coaches and deserves props. Too bad most fans cant examine how bad the D is and lay blame on the troll looking GM we have, yet to improve our horrendous D that feature Lilja as a top 4 player ugh

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01-12-2011, 02:40 AM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirk316 View Post
The fact that this team is even looking at the possibility of making the playoffs proves that Carlyle is one of the leagues ELITE coaches and deserves props. Too bad most fans cant examine how bad the D is and lay blame on the troll looking GM we have, yet to improve our horrendous D that feature Lilja as a top 4 player ugh
Ducks are currently #12 in the league at 2.69 GA/G
Ducks are currently #22 in the league at 2.56 G/G

Our all star Olympians on offense are worse than our horrible defense.
Draw you own conclusions.

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Old
01-12-2011, 02:52 AM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirk316 View Post
The fact that this team is even looking at the possibility of making the playoffs proves that Carlyle is one of the leagues ELITE coaches and deserves props. Too bad most fans cant examine how bad the D is and lay blame on the troll looking GM we have, yet to improve our horrendous D that feature Lilja as a top 4 player ugh
I'm goin to go off topic here. You seem like the type of person that would hand out pamphlets or give lectures to kids on Halloween.

That is all.

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