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Update on the Thrashers draft outlook

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Old
06-21-2004, 11:59 PM
  #1
Holly Gunning
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Update on the Thrashers draft outlook

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/article...readed&order=0

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06-22-2004, 12:59 AM
  #2
Peter Sidorkiewicz
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After reading that (and the similar article in AJC), I think it is more likely now that Atlanta will trade the pick considering Waddell wants a top 4 d-man that can contribute straight away. I agree with DW in saying that the only d-man that is ready is Cam Barker and he won't be available come pick 10. Maybe he is the player Waddell was hinting (in reference to Waddell Q & A article) that the team are seriously considering trading up for? Other d-man in the draft such as Valabik, Meszaros and even Thelen need at least a couple more seasons of development.

This has just got interesting. What do you think is needed to move up to pick 3 to get Barker. Would Atlanta's 1st and 2nd rounds picks be enough to get pick 3? Or would Atlanta likely have to include a top prospect such as Jim Slater and our 1st to get the deal done.

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06-22-2004, 02:02 AM
  #3
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a feeler from ranger land.

feel free to blast this package (I myself don't think poti has much value) but here's somthing to consider:

Poti, #24 #46 for #10


For all his fault's, Poti can captain a power play and create signifigant offense from the blue line if your willing to deal with his defensive liabilities.

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06-22-2004, 03:32 AM
  #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xander
feel free to blast this package (I myself don't think poti has much value) but here's somthing to consider:

Poti, #24 #46 for #10


For all his fault's, Poti can captain a power play and create signifigant offense from the blue line if your willing to deal with his defensive liabilities.
No thank you. I think that Poti is just another Tremblay, but with more upside on offense.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On the topic. Here my take on the nine players that Waddell is talking about:

G: Marek Schwarz
G: Alvaro Montoya

D: Cam Barker
D: A.J. Thelen
D: here it gets sketchy. Smid? Menszaros? Valabik?

F: Ovechkin
F: Malkin
F: Olesz
F: Schremp


I think that's the breakdown for the first pick:

- Defenseman











- Center






























- Winger


BTW: It wouldn't surprise me, if we trade up to get one of these guys. IMO Anaheim and maybe Florida are candidate that would consider trading down. Oopss that's just my own speculation, so don't burn me.

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06-22-2004, 05:38 AM
  #5
dunwoody_joe
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Here's my take on the DW list:

1. Alexander Ovechkin (F)
2. Evegeni Malkin (F)
3. Cameron Barker (D)
4. Al Montoya (G)
5. Lauri Tukonen (F)
6. A.J Thelen (D)
7. Marek Schwarz (G)
8. Rostislav Olesz (F)
9. Andrej Meszaros (D)

That leaves out Ladd, Schremp, Smid who might be 10-12.
Then Stafford, Picard, Wolski, Radulov, Valabik at 13-17?

I think DW's comments in the AJC are meant as misdirection for the LA Kings who might expect one of the goalies to drop down to them at #11. I expect DW to wheel and deal perhaps trading down a couple of picks. I do not expect that he can get a top 4 defenseman via trade. It might be better to get an UFA.

I could see a deal with Edmonton who covets one of the goalies.

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06-22-2004, 08:16 AM
  #6
SlimJater
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dunwoody_joe
Here's my take on the DW list:

1. Alexander Ovechkin (F)
2. Evegeni Malkin (F)
3. Cameron Barker (D)
4. Al Montoya (G)
5. Lauri Tukonen (F)
6. A.J Thelen (D)
7. Marek Schwarz (G)
8. Rostislav Olesz (F)
9. Andrej Meszaros (D)

That leaves out Ladd, Schremp, Smid who might be 10-12.
Then Stafford, Picard, Wolski, Radulov, Valabik at 13-17?

I think DW's comments in the AJC are meant as misdirection for the LA Kings who might expect one of the goalies to drop down to them at #11. I expect DW to wheel and deal perhaps trading down a couple of picks. I do not expect that he can get a top 4 defenseman via trade. It might be better to get an UFA.

I could see a deal with Edmonton who covets one of the goalies.
Nice list and nice theory. I am guessing he wants the two goaltenders to be top 9 picks. So the player he truely covets Thelen will drop to 10. I thnk Thelen, Olesz, Schremp, and Meszaros are the players he is targeting.

I also think he praised Jimmy Sharrow in the interview with Holly to let people know that he still values Sharrow as a prospect even though we will be taking an offensive defencemen come draft day in the first or second round.


Last edited by SlimJater: 06-22-2004 at 08:31 AM.
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06-22-2004, 08:28 AM
  #7
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Could be that DW is baiting some team to select a goalie ahead of the Thrashers. I like that idea, because while we need to take the BPA, I hope that's not a goalie since we have plenty of other important holes in the system.

I would love to see Schremp taken at #10. He would fit the bill as a creative potential #1 or #2 centerman. But he is the classic high risk/high return guy. With his character in question, I doubt DW takes the risk.

Meszaros is growing on me and I am starting to believe that DW would covet him. Although not huge, he is playing with men and at 18 may be close to ready for the NHL. A puck moving defenseman would fit in nicely with the other dmen in the system.

Hell, if Ladd drops down, I would be delighted with him. I think CSB has him as the #1 NA prospect.

Thelen could drop too, which might be the best choice of all.

I think that after the top 2, the draft may unfold in unpredictable ways. I fully expect at least one trade by a team in front of the Thrashers.

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06-22-2004, 08:30 AM
  #8
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If the Thrashers go the other way, and trade the pick for a top-4 defenseman who is under the age of 30, who are likely candidates (other than Poti)?

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06-22-2004, 11:27 AM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WellSeats
If the Thrashers go the other way, and trade the pick for a top-4 defenseman who is under the age of 30, who are likely candidates (other than Poti)?
Tomas Kaberle

I know it's been said over and over, but I just had to throw it out there ...

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06-22-2004, 04:40 PM
  #10
Peter Sidorkiewicz
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tgallant
Tomas Kaberle

I know it's been said over and over, but I just had to throw it out there ...
Dick Tarnstrom, Brent Sopel?

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06-22-2004, 04:45 PM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dunwoody_joe
Could be that DW is baiting some team to select a goalie ahead of the Thrashers. I like that idea, because while we need to take the BPA, I hope that's not a goalie since we have plenty of other important holes in the system.
I hope your right because the team really needs to stock up on some offensive prospects in this draft. I have got no doubt they'll probably draft a goalie but I hope they do it round 3 or 5 rather than round 1 or 2.

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06-22-2004, 05:44 PM
  #12
Holly Gunning
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Next time I need a good conspiracy theory, I know where to come.

Yes I do think Don purposely misleads going into the draft, but I also think you're reading to much into certain aspects that don't deserve it. Sharrow - I think he's just excited about the kid. He was just named to the U.S. National Junior Evaluation Camp, so it's obvious that by others' opinions he's doing well too.

I didn't walk away from the press conference with the thing about the top 4 defenseman at the top of my mental list of new information learned. Mostly because it was said at the end, in more of a clarification question. Who doesn't know the team needs better defense anyway? No newsflash there.

Also, it takes two to trade. Don can talk trade til he's blue in the face, but until he can find a willing partner and a deal that makes sense, he's making the 10th pick. We'll see what shakes out.

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06-22-2004, 07:30 PM
  #13
SlimJater
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HollyG
Next time I need a good conspiracy theory, I know where to come.

Yes I do think Don purposely misleads going into the draft, but I also think you're reading to much into certain aspects that don't deserve it. Sharrow - I think he's just excited about the kid. He was just named to the U.S. National Junior Evaluation Camp, so it's obvious that by others' opinions he's doing well too.

I didn't walk away from the press conference with the thing about the top 4 defenseman at the top of my mental list of new information learned. Mostly because it was said at the end, in more of a clarification question. Who doesn't know the team needs better defense anyway? No newsflash there.

Also, it takes two to trade. Don can talk trade til he's blue in the face, but until he can find a willing partner and a deal that makes sense, he's making the 10th pick. We'll see what shakes out.
Sorry Holly the anticipation of the draft is starting to get to me.

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06-22-2004, 07:37 PM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SlimJater
Sorry Holly the anticipation of the draft is starting to get to me.
Oh don't apologize. The offseason has a way of doing funny things to people. It's the opposite for me, I'm actually busier in the summer than the season, there's more prospect stuff to do. Strange but true.

I've pretty much finished making my "everything I need to have at my fingertips at the draft" notebook, just need to clear out my recorder and I'm ready to go. The only thing I'm concerned about is getting lost driving around Raleigh. The one time I was there I remember it being really confusing.

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06-22-2004, 07:40 PM
  #15
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Remember, it was at the draft in 2001 DW made the deal with the Sabres that brought Slava Kozlov to Atlanta for some DPs; then at the draft in 2002, made the deal with the Senators that brought Shawn McEachern here for Brian Pothier and a 6th Round pick in this year's draft. Waddell's capable of bluffing and pulling off a surprise. While the 10th pick does not offer as much in terms of deal making as say a top 3 or top 5 pick (Look at the wheeling and dealing at the 2002 draft by Florida and Columbus to keep Bouwmeester and Nash out of Atlanta's hands, and the Thrashers got some picks and didn't move from the #2 spot. The Thrashers did have an interest in Bouwmeester, but I think they feigned interest in Nash just to spook Columbus, as Lehtonen was really the only other top player they had an interest in.), a team might be interested in trading them a d-man and some DPs for the #10 spot and some DPs in next year's draft.

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06-22-2004, 07:48 PM
  #16
Holly Gunning
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The Thrashers ability to take on some significant salary right now is probably going to help them a lot this weekend as well. Not insane salary mind you, but significant.

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06-22-2004, 09:02 PM
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I can't believe no one has said anything about the nine favorites and No. 10 pick thing. Don said it's a bit of a joke internally. As it should be...can't you just see them all taken and the table saying "Hmm, now what do we do?"

Also another funny moment was when he was talking about how no one was eliminated because of character. The question-asker said "Except Jeff Schultz." Don laughed and said yeah, "Except Jeff Schultz." :lol

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06-23-2004, 12:44 AM
  #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TomACE
No thank you. I think that Poti is just another Tremblay, but with more upside on offense.
can't say i disagree, but it was worth a try .

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06-23-2004, 01:04 AM
  #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HollyG
I can't believe no one has said anything about the nine favorites and No. 10 pick thing. Don said it's a bit of a joke internally. As it should be...can't you just see them all taken and the table saying "Hmm, now what do we do?"

Also another funny moment was when he was talking about how no one was eliminated because of character. The question-asker said "Except Jeff Schultz." Don laughed and said yeah, "Except Jeff Schultz." :lol
Gotta love their attitude about all this. I'm just a tad disappointed that I won't be able to watch this live (my presense is required at a bachelor party that day). Watching it on tape, and probably knowing what happens, takes some of the fun out of it.

"Except Jeff Schultz", truer words have never been spoken.

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06-23-2004, 03:47 AM
  #20
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At this point, Thrashers need help at every position, well maybe not in goal. Unless Montoya or Schwarz is still available and some team looking for a goalie really wants to overpay, I wouldn't trade the pick. Personally I really like Olesz, with most of those guys you're talking about potential, but with him what you see is what you get. I can not be but impressed with his combination of all-around excellence and scoring ability. He might even be around at 10th the way his stock is bouncing.

For a dman, you could try talking to Preds. They have excellent depth at the position, but lack physical defenceman and I think they would be intrested in Stefan too.

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06-23-2004, 11:32 AM
  #21
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Two things:

-that 9 players list, I thought it was for the players DW thinks will be available at 10 or that you can reasonably try to move up for... To me that put Ovechkin, Malkin and maybe Barker out of the list... But I'm probably wrong...

- Santala... I'm disappointed, I thought he would stay in Chicago (aren't they thin at center? we need to stock up this position !) where he made good progress last year, I didn't realize his contract was over... I'm not sure we'll see him back... Snif...

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06-23-2004, 08:03 PM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dunwoody_joe
Here's my take on the DW list:

1. Alexander Ovechkin (F)
2. Evegeni Malkin (F)
3. Cameron Barker (D)
4. Al Montoya (G)
5. Lauri Tukonen (F)
6. A.J Thelen (D)
7. Marek Schwarz (G)
8. Rostislav Olesz (F)
9. Andrej Meszaros (D)

That leaves out Ladd, Schremp, Smid who might be 10-12.
Then Stafford, Picard, Wolski, Radulov, Valabik at 13-17?

I think DW's comments in the AJC are meant as misdirection for the LA Kings who might expect one of the goalies to drop down to them at #11. I expect DW to wheel and deal perhaps trading down a couple of picks. I do not expect that he can get a top 4 defenseman via trade. It might be better to get an UFA.
I came up with the identical list (but had the players in a slighty different order).

I'm assuming DW wants to trade up to try and land Barker. The organization needs D and C. But if he wants Thelen or Meszaros there is a very good chance one of those guys will stil be there at #10 so why move up?

BTW the forecaster's 2nd mock has the Thrashers taking Meszaros in the 1st and Ogorodnikov in the 2nd. Red Line Report was very bullish on Ogorodnikov's skill level. I would happy with either of those guys.

I'm a bit worried about Thelen's defensive play. On the other hand, he was one of those very rare guys who was a 17 year old freshman at a Division I school which means he was 2-3 younger than most of the guys he was playing against. And we all know how Don loves those college guys.

Another guy I like that hasn't gotten much discussion here is LW Ladd of the WHL. He is both physical and a scorer. He put up over a point per game as a rookie in the WHL and was a terrific +39. Projects as a potential Rick Nash lite. A power forward who could score 40 goals in the NHL. Left wing is a generally weak position in the NHL (Compare the leading RW scorers in NHL Record Book to the top LW scorers and you'll see what I mean) With both Ladd and Ilya at LW the Thrasher would might have the best pair of LWs in the NHL.

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06-23-2004, 08:39 PM
  #23
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If I were to make a top 10 list (for myself) I would have Ladd at about 6. I think he's the real deal. If DW selects him at #10, I will be ecstatic.

My top 13 looks more like this:

1. Ovechkin
2. Malkin
3. Barker
4. Tukonen
5. Olesz
6. Thelen
7. Schwarz
8. Wolski
9. Schremp
10. Meszaros
11. Montoya
12. Stafford
13. Picard

I do not value the goalies as highly as DW "purportedly" does. I think guys like Schremp and Wolski are reasonable risks around #10.

I'm starting to like Mezaros.

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06-23-2004, 09:30 PM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HollyG
The Thrashers ability to take on some significant salary right now is probably going to help them a lot this weekend as well. Not insane salary mind you, but significant.
Don't the Thrashers have to sign Kovalchuk, Heatley, Sutton, and Savard?

I do not see that much room to add salary at all.

I would also caution anyone to take DW's words for what they are, words. I never believe a word of what he says, most of it is done for the consumption of other teams GM's.

Very few mock drafts I have seen have even one goalie being taken before LA's pick at #11. I suspect DW is just attempting to get the teams seeking goalies in a bidding war right before LA picks. There is not much doubt that LA is hot for a goalie, so DW should be able to get pretty decent interest if he keeps up this "we might take a goalie" nonsense.

And to be honest DW even implying that we might take a goalie with the #10 pick is utter nonsense. Not only do we have Lehtonen, but we have Garnett behind him in the farm system as well. And he has done much better than expected so far.

I think this pick gets traded.(perhaps just to move down a few spots and grab whichever Dman falls to them, like Mike Green)


Last edited by btn: 06-23-2004 at 09:35 PM.
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06-23-2004, 10:43 PM
  #25
Holly Gunning
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Quote:
Originally Posted by btn
I would also caution anyone to take DW's words for what they are, words. I never believe a word of what he says, most of it is done for the consumption of other teams GM's.
I think you're more distrustful than you should be. Is it everything he's thinking? No. But it's not the complete other end of the scale either.

Quote:
Very few mock drafts I have seen have even one goalie being taken before LA's pick at #11.
Don't trust mock drafts. Many are saying Phoenix might take a goalie too. They're at No. 5.

Remember Don saying over the past few seasons that they weren't going to go out and add a more pricey player until it was the "right time"? Well, the right time has arrived, and I believe the new ownership thinks so too. Don't assume the budget will be the same because I don't think it will be.

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