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Old
01-31-2011, 05:12 PM
  #951
raleh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hedberg View Post
Tidewater selects D Chris Chelios. I'm working on the bio, but we don't want to delay any further.
I was 150% sure this is the guy you'd pick. Better than MacInnis (IMO) and also right handed.

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01-31-2011, 05:14 PM
  #952
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Brad Park was a power play monster, and his playoff resume is arguably just as good as his regular season resume. His lack of playoff success is nowhere near his fault.

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01-31-2011, 05:19 PM
  #953
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I'll get a bio later for my pick. You guys all know I love my intangibles after last draft, why change things?

Peterborough Petes select: C: Milt Schmidt

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01-31-2011, 05:20 PM
  #954
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
The point is that after the age of 30 (and after having left his dynasty club), Messier had 1 season over 20 points - the year the Rangers one the cup. Which admittedly was a pretty damn awesome performance.

After the age of 30 when Yzerman's teams started getting up to a comparable level he had all three of his 20+ point playoffs.

Now are you going to try and tell me 30+ year old Yzerman was a better point producer than he was in his offensive prime or are you going to admit that team factors a lot into playoff performance?

The problem with comparing their playoff performances by points is that when Messier (and his team) was at his best he was in his 20s on a high-scoring dynasty and when Yzerman (and his team) was at his best he was in his 30s in the dead puck era.

I don't think much separates them as playoff performers.
You know what? First, kudos for attempting to bring context to this discussion. There's nothing at all wrong with context; I'm all about context. And I should have been more clear from the start when making this point, but I thought it was obvious myself, that even after you adjust for age, GP, and league scoring levels, Messier is definitely the better playoff performer.

So here's what I did, it took me two hours, I hope you like it.

First, I took a spreadsheet with all playoff scoring in NHL history. I cut it down to 1980-2006.

I then added the league GPG average to each season's line (regular season, not playoffs, as that was readily available and is a better indicator of the league landscape anyway)

I then added up the average PPG by a player aged 18 years, 19 years, and so on, all the way up 40 years as that was Yzerman's age in his last playoff. So that there was less "noise" in this result, I averaged out, for example, age 25, 26, and 27 to calculate the average for age 26.

Then I removed all other players except Messier and Yzerman. I calculated their points per game in every playoff, multiplied by (3.32, the period average, divided by their year's league average) and multiplied by (0.405, the average PPG by all players in this time, divided by their age average).

Then I multiplied that age and era-adjusted PPG figure by GP again to arrive at an adjusted points total.

Messier: 254 points in 236 games.
Yzerman: 196 points in 196 games.

This is the best I can do to account for the fact that Messier played more games at a prime age for a good team.

Biggest caveats to this:

- Playing in round 3 and the finals tends to see a player's PPG total go down as checking gets even tighter and competition gets tougher. Messier was in 7 finals and 10 conference finals; Yzerman 4 and 6.
- It's generally thought that the other teams in Messier's Smythe division were pretty good but stuck behind the dominant Oilers. Yzerman is said to have piled up points in the "Snorris" playoffs of the mid- to late-80s. this obviously is not accounted for in the numbers but it probably means Yzerman had an easier time of it.

Both caveats benefit Messier, so my point stands. Messier produced, after adjustment, 8% more, and did so for 20% more games.

Can we talk about something else now? Please?

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Old
01-31-2011, 05:25 PM
  #955
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Can we talk about something else now? Please?
Yeah, like how awesome Lalonde and Park are.

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01-31-2011, 05:31 PM
  #956
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Originally Posted by Reds4Life View Post
Also, the edit by seventieslord was pretty weird to say the least.
how come?

Quote:
Originally Posted by hungryhungryhippy View Post
Brad Park is such an elite well-rounded defenseman. It just seems to me like he never gets due credit. From what I can tell, he's closer to Potvin, Lidstrom, and co. then he is to the tier of second round defensemen that he gets put in.

I also don't understand why Larry Robinson is considered better than him at all.
...
LTFO!!!!

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Originally Posted by hungryhungryhippy View Post
Oh man, this is so hard...


Quote:
Originally Posted by nik jr View Post
i think OP would be easier to read if only names of players and not names of teams were in bold letters.
It's a lot harder to do - a lot more formatting. The way I have it now, I can just move the last bold marker when more picks are made.

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01-31-2011, 05:31 PM
  #957
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Originally Posted by chaosrevolver View Post
I'll get a bio later for my pick. You guys all know I love my intangibles after last draft, why change things?

Peterborough Petes select: C: Milt Schmidt
Great guy to built your team around. The only reason I didn't pick him was because he lost the coin toss (to Sakic), and even then, I was pretty close to trading up and picking him with VCL and Hedberg's pick.

Though, I'm glad I picked Sakic just because he's someone I haven't had before, and now that I think about, he'll fit better into my plans (if they go as expected).

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Old
01-31-2011, 05:32 PM
  #958
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PLease, please let my guy be there at 41...

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Old
01-31-2011, 05:34 PM
  #959
seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raleh View Post
I was 150% sure this is the guy you'd pick. Better than MacInnis (IMO) and also right handed.
If by IMO you mean "In Most Opinions"... yeah.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jareklajkosz View Post
Yeah, like how awesome Lalonde and Park are.
Yes. Indeed they are.

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01-31-2011, 05:34 PM
  #960
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HHH, I think the coin chose right.

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Old
01-31-2011, 05:36 PM
  #961
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Well in reality Sakic was better than Schmidt, but since this is the ATD - Schmidt may be looked at as the better pick.

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Old
01-31-2011, 05:43 PM
  #962
seventieslord
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Originally Posted by monster_bertuzzi View Post
Well in reality Sakic was better than Schmidt, but since this is the ATD - Schmidt may be looked at as the better pick.
I realize that, but even with relativity considered I still find it hard to put Schmidt ahead.

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Old
01-31-2011, 05:46 PM
  #963
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Originally Posted by monster_bertuzzi View Post
Well in reality Sakic was better than Schmidt, but since this is the ATD - Schmidt may be looked at as the better pick.
i am not sure schmidt has ever been picked before sakic.

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Old
01-31-2011, 05:47 PM
  #964
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Originally Posted by nik jr View Post
i am not sure schmidt has ever been picked before sakic.
Schmidt was the second pick of the team that won it 2 drafts ago...I think he went like 7 spots ahead of Sakic that time.

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Old
01-31-2011, 05:48 PM
  #965
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Ironically, I'm the person who took Schmidt right before Sakic in last year's ATD

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Old
01-31-2011, 05:49 PM
  #966
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Schmidt has captained his team to the Milt Dunnel cup final two years in a row

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Old
01-31-2011, 05:54 PM
  #967
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Originally Posted by raleh View Post
I was 150% sure this is the guy you'd pick. Better than MacInnis (IMO) and also right handed.
Well, that's comforting, cause I'm pretty sure we weren't 150% sure about it, so at least someone was.

Good pick with Schmidt, but I agree, I would've taken Sakic first too.

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Old
01-31-2011, 06:14 PM
  #968
seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord
Then I multiplied that age and era-adjusted PPG figure by GP again to arrive at an adjusted points total.

Messier: 254 points in 236 games.
Yzerman: 196 points in 196 games.
Just to really, really hammer this one home.

Let's pretend Yzerman didn't go down in round 1 and that he produced at an insane level, 40 points in 25 games, en route to winning the 1989 cup.

Let's then pretend that the Leafs don't score that game 7 OT winner at Joe Louis Arena in 1993, and Yzerman goes on to have a playoff for the ages, instead of that other guy, but instead of stopping in round 3, he takes out Gretzky too, en route to a cup over Roy, scoring 43 points in 25 games.

Well, his career total would then be 248 "adjusted" points in 233 games. He still wouldn't quite be at Messier's playoff production level, even after crediting him with two extraordinary and imaginary scenarios.

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Old
01-31-2011, 06:28 PM
  #969
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Sorry for the delay. Things be busy.

For the first time, I'll pick a defenseman first, a guy I think is the BDA. Recycle bio time!(one of the first ones I contributed too):

His firends call him Pete, but you will know him as:

Pierre Pilote



Quote:
Pierre Pilote was one of the most outstanding defensemen of his time. - Joe Pelletier
Quote:
Pilote was a superb defenseman at both ends of the ice. In his own zone he blocked shots fearlessly, but he also wasn't afraid to join the rush and he was a first-rate passer- Legends of Hockey
Biography:
Pierre Pilote, although small, was won of the most feared defencemen of the original six era. A rather complete package as far as defencemen go, Pilote could do it offensively, defensively, and physically.

Offensively, Pilote was a machine, often in Top 5 in points amongst defenceman, and a 4 year stretch where he led the league in defenceman scoring. His offensive game also translated into the playoffs, as shown by his incredible Conn Smythe run where he scored the winning or tying goal in every Blackhawks playoff victory in 1961.

Defensively, Pilote was also great, being a fearless shot-blocker and more than solid in his own end. He was also suprisingly tough, knocking out Maurice Richard in a mix-up and being known as a very tough, and feared, customer. His toughness was also shown by his iron man streak, where he played 376 games in a row over 5 seasons in Chicago without missing 1 game.

After winning the cup, Pilote was named captain on a team that had both Bobby Hull and Stan Mikita, as good a tribute as any to his leadership abilites and his importance to his team. He was an All-Star every year from 1960 to 1967, which also featured a run of three straight norrises. Pilote was traded to Toronto in 1968, where he played one season before retiring. Pilote is truly, one of the greatest defencemen to ever play the game. He was inducted to the hockey hall of fame in 1975.

Awards and Achievements:
Stanley Cup Champion (1961)
Retro Conn Smythe (1961)
3 x Norris Trophy winner (1963, 1964, 1965)

Quote:
The Hawks became Stanley Cup champions in 1961. Pilote scored the winning or tying goal in every Blackhawks victory that year
- Joe Pelletier

All-Stars and Voting:
Norris Voting - 4th(1960), 4th(1961), 2nd(1962),1st(1963), 1st(1964), 1st(1965) 2nd(1966), 2nd(1967)
All-Star Selections � 1st Team(1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1967), 2nd Team(1960, 1961,1962)

Scoring:
Scoring - 8th(1965)
Assists - 5th(1964), 3rd(1965), 3rd(1967)
Scoring for Defensemen - 9th(1957), 5th(1958), 3rd(1959), 2nd(1960), 2nd(1961), 3rd(1962), 5th(1963), 1st(1964), 1st(1965), 1st(1966), 1st(1967), 5th(1968)

Play-off Scoring - 1st(1961), 7th(1963)
Play-off Scoring for Defensemen - 1st(1961), 2nd(1962), 1st(1963), 1st(1964), 2nd(1965), 2nd(1967)

Quote:
He was one of the most feared defensemen of Original Six hockey- Legends of Hockey
Quote:
Pilote also became renowned as a tough guy who should be avoided, a reputation enhanced when he knocked both __________and Maurice Richard out cold during the same mix-up
. -Legends of Hockey

Fun Fact:
Pierre Pilote is an incredible story of late-starts. He learned to skate as a child. but between the ages of 14 and 17, he never played at all because the local rink burned down and he had nowhere to go. As a result, Pilote didn't play his first game of organized hockey until he was 17.

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Old
01-31-2011, 06:33 PM
  #970
BraveCanadian
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Just to really, really hammer this one home.

Let's pretend Yzerman didn't go down in round 1 and that he produced at an insane level, 40 points in 25 games, en route to winning the 1989 cup.

Let's then pretend that the Leafs don't score that game 7 OT winner at Joe Louis Arena in 1993, and Yzerman goes on to have a playoff for the ages, instead of that other guy, but instead of stopping in round 3, he takes out Gretzky too, en route to a cup over Roy, scoring 43 points in 25 games.

Well, his career total would then be 248 "adjusted" points in 233 games. He still wouldn't quite be at Messier's playoff production level, even after crediting him with two extraordinary and imaginary scenarios.
Couldn't let it go eh..

Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
So here's what I did, it took me two hours, I hope you like it.
You got too much time on your hands man..

Yzerman looks pretty good in that comparison if you ask me.

Even if I have to call into question how accurate average on top of average on top of average is when comparing players whose career and team arcs were so different.

Messier might indeed have a bit of an advantage as a scorer and he definitely has to get credit for actually doing it (Yzerman never really got to show what he could do in his offensive prime with a good team). But by the time Yzerman was having his best playoff seasons he was also better defensively than Messier had ever been and was also every bit the gritty leader Messier had ever been in my opinion.

I still think they are fairly comparable playoff performers at their best.

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Old
01-31-2011, 06:36 PM
  #971
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leafs Forever View Post
Sorry for the delay. Things be busy.

For the first time, I'll pick a defenseman first, a guy I think is the BDA. Recycle bio time!(one of the first ones I contributed too):

His firends call him Pete, but you will know him as:

Pierre Pilote







Biography:
Pierre Pilote, although small, was won of the most feared defencemen of the original six era. A rather complete package as far as defencemen go, Pilote could do it offensively, defensively, and physically.

Offensively, Pilote was a machine, often in Top 5 in points amongst defenceman, and a 4 year stretch where he led the league in defenceman scoring. His offensive game also translated into the playoffs, as shown by his incredible Conn Smythe run where he scored the winning or tying goal in every Blackhawks playoff victory in 1961.

Defensively, Pilote was also great, being a fearless shot-blocker and more than solid in his own end. He was also suprisingly tough, knocking out Maurice Richard in a mix-up and being known as a very tough, and feared, customer. His toughness was also shown by his iron man streak, where he played 376 games in a row over 5 seasons in Chicago without missing 1 game.

After winning the cup, Pilote was named captain on a team that had both Bobby Hull and Stan Mikita, as good a tribute as any to his leadership abilites and his importance to his team. He was an All-Star every year from 1960 to 1967, which also featured a run of three straight norrises. Pilote was traded to Toronto in 1968, where he played one season before retiring. Pilote is truly, one of the greatest defencemen to ever play the game. He was inducted to the hockey hall of fame in 1975.

Awards and Achievements:
Stanley Cup Champion (1961)
Retro Conn Smythe (1961)
3 x Norris Trophy winner (1963, 1964, 1965)

- Joe Pelletier

All-Stars and Voting:
Norris Voting - 4th(1960), 4th(1961), 2nd(1962),1st(1963), 1st(1964), 1st(1965) 2nd(1966), 2nd(1967)
All-Star Selections � 1st Team(1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1967), 2nd Team(1960, 1961,1962)

Scoring:
Scoring - 8th(1965)
Assists - 5th(1964), 3rd(1965), 3rd(1967)
Scoring for Defensemen - 9th(1957), 5th(1958), 3rd(1959), 2nd(1960), 2nd(1961), 3rd(1962), 5th(1963), 1st(1964), 1st(1965), 1st(1966), 1st(1967), 5th(1968)

Play-off Scoring - 1st(1961), 7th(1963)
Play-off Scoring for Defensemen - 1st(1961), 2nd(1962), 1st(1963), 1st(1964), 2nd(1965), 2nd(1967)



. -Legends of Hockey

Fun Fact:
Pierre Pilote is an incredible story of late-starts. He learned to skate as a child. but between the ages of 14 and 17, he never played at all because the local rink burned down and he had nowhere to go. As a result, Pilote didn't play his first game of organized hockey until he was 17.
**** me...

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Old
01-31-2011, 06:39 PM
  #972
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Seriously guys, we're pretty loosey-goosey here on the ATD board. There really are just two rules anyone has to worry about: 1) Don't mention or hint at undrafted players in the draft thread; 2) After you make a selection, PM the GM who comes after you.
The first rule of ATD, is you do not talk about ATD.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hedberg View Post
Tidewater selects D Chris Chelios.
This may be a controversial opinion but Chelios is probably the best defensive defenseman I've ever seen (taking peak and career into account).

Quote:
Originally Posted by arrbez View Post
Boy I'm stumped. You could be talking about any one of the hundreds of players with 10 letters in their names and the initials M.S. who generally go around this time in the ATD.
Yes, but "Milt Schmidt" has an 11 letter name. No doubt he was referring to Marko Sakko.


Last edited by Hockey Outsider: 01-31-2011 at 06:47 PM.
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Old
01-31-2011, 06:58 PM
  #973
seventieslord
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
You got too much time on your hands man..
Seriously man? From atd gm to another? Come on.

This is the atd. We research, analyze, and then present our research and analysis. Sorry for doing exactly that, and sorry that the results didn't agree with your theory.

Quote:
Yzerman looks pretty good in that comparison if you ask me.

Even if I have to call into question how accurate average on top of average on top of average is when comparing players whose career and team arcs were so different.

Messier might indeed have a bit of an advantage as a scorer and he definitely has to get credit for actually doing it (Yzerman never really got to show what he could do in his offensive prime with a good team). But by the time Yzerman was having his best playoff seasons he was also better defensively than Messier had ever been and was also every bit the gritty leader Messier had ever been in my opinion.

I still think they are fairly comparable playoff performers at their best.
If you have a better way to demonstrate that, be my guest.. maybe assume yzerman maintains that level of norris divisional playoff production all the way to the finals a couple of times? As flawed as that would be, it would at least be a start.

I've addressed your concerns as presented to the best of my abilities - have an open mind and don't try to move the goalposts on me after the fact.

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Old
01-31-2011, 07:10 PM
  #974
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Chelios seems pretty comparable in value to MacInnis to me, with most of his value in the defensive end and most of MacInnis's value in the offensive end.

HO, I don't think your evaluation of Chelios is that controversial. Chelios has as good a case as anyone for best defensive d-man since his career began, IMO. He was the weakest offensively of any drafted d-man, OTOH.

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Old
01-31-2011, 07:36 PM
  #975
BraveCanadian
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Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
Chelios seems pretty comparable in value to MacInnis to me, with most of his value in the defensive end and most of MacInnis's value in the offensive end.
I agree with you on this one.

I'd put them roughly equal in overall play with Chelios being a bit more solid defensively & more physical(/dirty) and MacInnis having a fairly substantial offensive advantage to make up for those.

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